Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Tippit]

Timing of lockdown is everything. A lockdown that is too late, and moreover was preceded by a period when the government actively tried to encourage the virus to spread across the country, doesn't lead to a low death toll.

Fair point, does that apply to any specific countries?


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[lionking]

You’re painfully oblivious to the point, which is that if Sweden undertook a lassiez-faire strategy that failed, they should probably be closer to number one, and that given the choice, anyone rational and with a brain would rather be in Sweden, than locked down in the Netherlands.

Nice try, though!


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Have you got evidence for this bit of nonsense? Of course you don’t.

My state in Australia was hit by a wave in July which peaked at 700 a day. Low by the standards of the “top ten” but unacceptable to us. We have been in hard lockdown for 6 weeks which nobody likes, but we are at 30 a day and dropping. Know what? The popularity of our leader Dan Andrews, has increased. Yes, some CTers and “sovereign citizens” are pissed off. The rest of us tell them to **** off.

This is the way smart countries react. I used to count Sweden as a smart country. No longer.

 

[dann]

Given that Sweden’s strategy would result in front-loading a lot of deaths, but has presumably resulted in a much higher quality-of-life, it seems likely that your premise that their strategy has failed is complete ********.

You have no reason other than wishful thinking to assume that the Swedish strategy "has presumably resulted in a much higher quality of life." It seems that you deliberately ignored this part of my earlier post:

You make the same mistake as most other people who argue with QALY against coronavirus restrictions and other attempts to prevent the disease from spreading. The irony is that you are actually the guys who are obsessed with the death toll and ignore everything else, thinking that everything would be normal if only concerned people wouldn't bother everybody else with masks and social distancing. Nobody would be depressed and nobody would lose their jobs, which they don't lose because of the disease, in your fantasies, but because of the restrictions.
But the reality of the Swedish fairy tale doesn't agree with you:

Professorn om äldre i isolering: Ofrivillig ensamhet dåligt för hälsan (SVT.se, May 11, 2020)
Coronaeffekter: Vårdpersonalen kan bli sjuk – av stressen (SVT.se, May 18, 2020)
”Collateral damage” i spåren av covid-19 (SVT.se, June 26, 2020)
Psykisk ohälsa hos vårdpersonal i spåren av corona (SVT.se, July 19, 2020)
Personer med psykisk ohälsa kan ha drabbats hårt av pandemin (SVT.se, July 23, 2020)
Fler söker vård för psykisk ohälsa – ”Riskerar att bli värre” (SVT.se, Aug. 6, 2020)

Arbetslös: ”Jag vet inte vad jag är berättigad till för hjälp” (SVT.se, March 22, 2020)
Trygghetsrådet befarar – fler arbetslösa i coronakrisens spår (SVT.se, May 12, 2020)
Arbetsförmedlingen: Nära 100 000 arbetslösa unga 2021 (SVT.se, July 1, 2020)
Arbetslösheten ökar bland unga – coronakrisen slår hårt (SVT.se, July 13, 2020)
”Situationen har blivit dubbelt så svår under corona” (SVT.se, Aug. 11, 2020)

You not only ignore Swedish deaths, you also ignore Sweden's unemployment, Sweden's cases of depression, Sweden's long-haulers, and Sweden's bereaved relatives mourning their dead, which makes it very easy for you to pretend that Sweden probably fared better than the countries suffering from "oppressive containment strategies."

Can you explain why twelve other countries on that list, likely all with oppressive containment strategies have fared worse than Sweden, and in particular the Netherlands, who, despite their containment strat and miserable quality of life sit at only about 200 dpm less than Sweden?

Can you explain what makes it likely that those twelve other countries had "oppressive containment strategies"?[/I] Can you explain why you assume a "miserable quality of life" in the Netherlands but not it Sweden? Do you think it might have anything at all to do with some countries being impacted by the virus earlier than Sweden and therefore being more unprepared? Italy, for instance? Or since you mention the Netherlands specifically: The country was impacted much worse than Sweden very early on, and yet its containment strategy made the outcome much better than Sweden's: Netherlands: 367 deaths per million. Sweden: 585 deaths per million. (Denmark: 111 deaths per million) And since you suggest that we should take population density into account: Netherlands: 488 people per km2 Sweden: 25 per Km2 (Denmark: 137 per Km2)

Using these metrics is asinine. They dont account for a huge number of factors that affect different countries, including population densities, cultures, religious practices, and last but not least, climates, the colder of which not only influence viral longevity, but host immune systems.

Which is why the other Nordic countries are much better suited for comparisons with Sweden, right? You really didn't think this through, did you?!

 

[Tippit]

Have you got evidence for this bit of nonsense? Of course you don’t.

Have I got any evidence for why I'd rather be maskless and free in Sweden, versus contained and locked down in the Netherlands, over a marginal difference in dpm? Lol. Do I need any?

My state in Australia was hit by a wave in July which peaked at 700 a day. Low by the standards of the “top ten” but unacceptable to us. We have been in hard lockdown for 6 weeks which nobody likes, but we are at 30 a day and dropping. Know what? The popularity of our leader Dan Andrews, has increased. Yes, some CTers and “sovereign citizens” are pissed off. The rest of us tell them to **** off.

This is the way smart countries react. I used to count Sweden as a smart country. No longer.

I am sure the Swedes will be disappointed.

 

[Tippit]

You have no reason other than wishful thinking to assume that the Swedish strategy "has presumably resulted in a much higher quality of life." It seems that you deliberately ignored this part of my earlier post:



You not only ignore Swedish deaths, you also ignore Sweden's unemployment, Sweden's cases of depression, Sweden's long-haulers, and Sweden's bereaved relatives mourning their dead, which makes it very easy for you to pretend that Sweden probably fared better than the countries suffering from "oppressive containment strategies."

So you're claiming implicitly that lockdowns and containment strategies have little to no effect on quality of life, and/or that the direct viral consequences in Sweden offset their freedom? It's worth noting that Sweden can't escape some of the consequences of the strategies of neighboring countries regardless of what its policy is, given the economic and social fallout of those strategies.

Can you explain what makes it likely that those twelve other countries had "oppressive containment strategies"?[/I] Can you explain why you assume a "miserable quality of life" in the Netherlands but not it Sweden? Do you think it might have anything at all to do with some countries being impacted by the virus earlier than Sweden and therefore being more unprepared? Italy, for instance? Or since you mention the Netherlands specifically: The country was impacted much worse than Sweden very early on, and yet its containment strategy made the outcome much better than Sweden's: Netherlands: 367 deaths per million. Sweden: 585 deaths per million. (Denmark: 111 deaths per million) And since you suggest that we should take population density into account: Netherlands: 488 people per km2 Sweden: 25 per Km2 (Denmark: 137 per Km2) Which is why the other Nordic countries are much better suited for comparisons with Sweden, right? You really didn't think this through, did you?!

Except for your assumptions about the relative quality of life in Sweden vs. these other countries, I think you've made some really good points in favor of not posting shoddy dpm statstics to compare national Covid policies! The comparative population densities of Netherlands and Sweden is indeed striking. Can we move on to a metric that's more appropriate for the 21st century than death tolls? Maybe, I don't know. QALYs?

 

[zooterkin]

You’re painfully oblivious to the point, which is that if Sweden undertook a lassiez-faire strategy that failed, they should probably be closer to number one, and that given the choice, anyone rational and with a brain would rather be in Sweden, than locked down in the Netherlands.

Nice try, though!


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Except that, of course, Sweden didn’t take a laissez-faire strategy. They didn’t have a complete lockdown, but they did alter their behaviour to use social distancing, increased hand washing, isolation of people in care homes, and so on.

http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/

 

[dann]

So you're claiming implicitly that lockdowns and containment strategies have little to no effect on quality of life, and/or that the direct viral consequences in Sweden offset their freedom?

No, I'm not. The problem in this discussion is that you ignore all the effects that the pandemic itself has on the quality of life and attribute them to the restrictions. At the most, you think that, in the case of Sweden, other negative effects of the pandemic than deaths must be "the consequences of the strategies of neighboring countries":

It's worth noting that Sweden can't escape some of the consequences of the strategies of neighboring countries regardless of what its policy is, given the economic and social fallout of those strategies.

Poor Sweden! If only Denmark, Finland and Norway hadn't closed their borders to the happy-go-lucky Swedes, they would have been having a ball!
You ignore that Swedes have probably been self-isolating even more and much longer than people in the other Nordic countries - and that they probably still do.

Except for your assumptions about the relative quality of life in Sweden vs. these other countries, I think you've made some really good points in favor of not posting shoddy dpm statstics to compare national Covid policies! The comparative population densities of Netherlands and Sweden is indeed striking. Can we move on to a metric that's more appropriate for the 21st century than death tolls? Maybe, I don't know. QALYs?

Having to point it out to you is a little embarrassing, but you seem to have no idea what QALY actually is:

The quality-adjusted life year or quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is a generic measure of disease burden, including both the quality and the quantity (!!!) of life lived. It is used in economic evaluation to assess the value of medical interventions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year (Wiki)

It's very obvious why you prefer to ignore those "shoddy dpm statstics," but as you can see, they figure into the QALY much more than you were aware of.

It is also obvious that you know as little about QALY, the pandemic in general, Sweden and life in Sweden during the pandemic, the restrictions put in place to first hammer down and then dance with the virus, as you knew about population densities in Sweden and countries you would like to compare Sweden with.

I guess you have seen the photos as well as the videos of apparently carefree Swedes enjoying the summer outdoors, free of all the annoying restrictions that you would find in many other countries, but those photos and videos are lying by omission! They don't show you the Swedes who dare not go outside, they don't show you hospital staff fighting to keep patients alive while trying not to get infected themselves and not infect others, they don't show you the people who have lost their jobs, they don't show you the long-haulers who have suffered from the Covid-19 for months and may never recover, and they only rarely show you the people who have lost loved ones to the virus because that is not what those photos and videos are supposed to do. They glamorize Sweden.

So the idea that (many) people abroad now have is that Sweden is the unrestricted paradise in contrast to Italy with its restrictions and deaths. And this is a grotesque misconception when you consider that Sweden and Italy have had approximately the same dpm - in spite of the advantage that Sweden had because the pandemic struck Italy much sooner than Sweden.

People also don't hear about the restrictions of civil rights in Sweden. For instance, that the Swedish police wouldn't allow BLM protests with more than 50 participants because of the restrictions. In Copenhagen we had a BLM demonstration with 15,000 protesters, which wasn't a problem. The right to protest was excluded from the coronavirus restrictions in Denmark. We have never been asked to self-isolate at home unless we are infected. I have been outside almost every day since the beginning of the pandemic, even at the beginning when nobody knows how many people were infected, and I live right in the middle of one of the hotspots, the most densely populated municipality of a country much more densely populated than Sweden!

I am convinced that my personal quality of life has exceeded that of Swedes in otherwise similar circumstances, which doesn't go to say that my life wouldn't have been more fun without the pandemic. The pandemic did lower my quality of life, but the restrictions didn't: My behavior would probably have been the same: I wouldn't have been frequenting nightclubs and discos if they hadn't been locked down. Only idiots would. And I'm all for preventing those idiots from spreading the disease. They are the worst threat to QALY in the current circumstances.

 

[dann]

Tuesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 22, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 580 (5,870) 1199* 15 *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Denmark: 111 (641) 476 19
Finland: 62 (341) 149 2
Norway: 49 (267) 70 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 42 0
Iceland has 279 active cases, Faroe Islands 34, New Zealand 61.
The Faroe Islands have 94 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.
Eleven new Covid cases (KVF.fo, Sep. 22, 2020)
SAS suspends Faroe flights (KVF.fo, Sep. 22, 2020) - between Denmark and the Faroe Islands

 

[dann]

Have I got any evidence for why I'd rather be maskless and free in Sweden, versus contained and locked down in the Netherlands, over a marginal difference in dpm? Lol. Do I need any?

I think this is what you need to prove: "anyone rational and with a brain would rather be in Sweden, than locked down in the Netherlands."

You also seem to forget that you just demanded that population density be taken into account, so let me do it for you: Despite the population density of the Netherlands, the country still managed to keep its dpm at 367 in comparison to Sweden's 580. That you call it "a marginal difference" makes your bias too bloody obvious.

 

[Tippit]

I think this is what you need to prove: "anyone rational and with a brain would rather be in Sweden, than locked down in the Netherlands."

You also seem to forget that you just demanded that population density be taken into account, so let me do it for you: Despite the population density of the Netherlands, the country still managed to keep its dpm at 367 in comparison to Sweden's 580. That you call it "a marginal difference" makes your bias too bloody obvious.

The Covid mortality rates themselves are marginal, so a fraction of those rates is also marginal.

As far as how pop. density relates to covid stats, I, you (we) made a good point. If your point is that Sweden’s policy versus the Netherlands is worse as measured by dpm, then I concede.

But if you paid close attention to what I wrote, you would realize that I’m not interested in minimizing death rates, I’m interested in maximizing the quality of life for everyone, including covid survivors. By this hypothetical metric, I am not convinced that Sweden has failed at anything.


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[dann]

The Covid mortality rates themselves are marginal, so a fraction of those rates is also marginal.

Nice try, but what you said was that the difference was marginal: "a marginal difference in dpm."

As far as how pop. density relates to covid stats, I, you (we) made a good point. If your point is that Sweden’s policy versus the Netherlands is worse as measured by dpm, then I concede.

But if you paid close attention to what I wrote, you would realize that I’m not interested in minimizing death rates, I’m interested in maximizing the quality of life for everyone, including covid survivors. By this hypothetical metric, I am not convinced that Sweden has failed at anything.

You are not interested in minimizing death rates, you are interested in ignoring them. But feel free to tell us about how you will maximize the quality of life for Covid-19 survivors. I am particularly interested in the surviving long-haulers. I personally think that their lives would have been much better without the infection, so I look forward to you showing us how their lives would have been better without restrictions.

And as for Sweden failing: You are late to this thread, but I have pointed out several times that the alleged goal of the Swedish strategy was to 1) flatten the curve so the health-care system wasn't overwhelmed and 2) make sure that old people were protected from the virus.
Sweden failed miserably on both counts.

You are trying to prove that Sweden succeeded in QALY instead.
Show us what you've got.

 

[dann]

Precis som många andra europeiska länder skruvar nu även Storbritannien åt sina virusrestriktioner. Enligt professor Johan Giesecke försöker länderna hålla nere smittspridningen så mycket som möjligt – i väntan på ett vaccin.
– Det anser jag är en farlig strategi, säger han.
Hårdare restriktioner – i väntan på ett vaccin (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Sep. 23, 2020)

Just like many other European countries, even Great Britain is now hardening its virus restrictions. According to professor Johan Giesecke, the countries are trying to keep down the spread of the virus as much as possible – while waiting for a vaccine.
- I think that’s a dangerous strategy, he says.
Harder restrictions – while waiting for a vaccine

The article is behind a paywall, so I don't know his reasons for thinking that restrictions are dangerous, but it is probably safe to assume that he thinks that the UK should also bet on herd immunity.

 

[Earthborn]

You also seem to forget

Tippit also seems to forget that the lockdown in the Netherlands really wasn't all that strict. Most businesses continued to operate with little changes, most people could continue doing the things they wanted. Even with such a lax lock down, we did better than Sweden.

 

[dann]

It might have been better to have been a little less lax, locked down harder, and get it over with sooner.
But Denmark and the Netherlands seem to be in a similar situation right now: Not just the number of cases but also of deaths rising.
Denmark
Netherlands
Have new restrictions been introduced in the Netherlands to cope with the increase?

 

[dann]

Two Danish experts think that Sweden’s current situation is ”sustainable” – when you ignore the death toll – but far from all experts agree:

Corona-ekspert: Vi skal ikke være misundelige på Sverige (DR.dk, Sep. 22, 2020)
Corona expert: We shouldn’t envy Sweden
Four main reasons are mentioned:
1) Number of deaths (Five times more per-capita deaths in Sweden)
2) Long-term consequences for the long-haulers (There are presumably five times as many of those (per capita) in Sweden, too)
3) Timing (Sweden’s summer holidays are a little later than Denmark’s + we now have safeguards and PPE in place)
4) The argument for Sweden’s current ’advantage’ is wrong (i.e. that the Swedish superspreaders are now all immune)


Aflys alt (EkstraBladet, Sep. 23, 2020)
Cancel everything
Minister recommends that schools and other educational institutions in the current situation cancel all activities except lessons

 

[dann]

Wednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 23, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 581 (5,876) 320* 15 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 111 (643) 558 15
Finland: 62 (343) 93 4
Norway: 49 (267) 57 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 57 0
Iceland has 324 active cases, Faroe Islands 35, New Zealand 62.
The Faroe Islands have 94 in quarantine, 1 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Three new Covid cases (KVF.fo, Sep. 23, 2020)
Covid expert: we must put our social lives on hold (KVF.fo, Sep. 22, 2020)

 

[jimbob]

You’re painfully oblivious to the point, which is that if Sweden undertook a lassiez-faire strategy that failed, they should probably be closer to number one, and that given the choice, anyone rational and with a brain would rather be in Sweden, than locked down in the Netherlands.

Nice try, though!


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https://twitter.com/Ellaj26927542/status/1307626683680382977?s=20

Sweden has:
-v high single person households
-Stockholm travel reduced by 50%, (London by around 60-70%. )
-50% Worked from Home
Gatherings/travel were avoided
-GDP dropped 8%
-16-18 year olds went on line
Death rate which they should not be proud of! Cases increasing again.

It also is doing far worse than its Scandinavian peers, and is looking to introduce a lockdown in Stockholm

Timing of lockdown is everything. A lockdown that is too late, and moreover was preceded by a period when the government actively tried to encourage the virus to spread across the country, doesn't lead to a low death toll.

Exactly.

• The UK locked down in week 13.
• Symptomatic cases peaked in week 14 according to the covid.joinzoe.com data (which is probably the most accurate)
• Deaths peaked in week 17

Have you got evidence for this bit of nonsense? Of course you don’t.

My state in Australia was hit by a wave in July which peaked at 700 a day. Low by the standards of the “top ten” but unacceptable to us. We have been in hard lockdown for 6 weeks which nobody likes, but we are at 30 a day and dropping. Know what? The popularity of our leader Dan Andrews, has increased. Yes, some CTers and “sovereign citizens” are pissed off. The rest of us tell them to **** off.

This is the way smart countries react. I used to count Sweden as a smart country. No longer.

Yes, and look at Israel for getting it right early, then getting it tragically wrong later.

 

[lionking]

Hmmm

https://www.theage.com.au/world/eur...s-as-covid-19-cases-rise-20200923-p55yfr.html

Sweden's public health agency is discussing imposing new coronavirus restrictions on Stockholm after the city's health chief warned of "worrying signs of increasing infection".

It came shortly after Björn Eriksson, Stockholm's health chief, said the long decline in cases in the city had ended.

"The downwards trend is broken," he said. "We can only hope this is a blip, that the spread starts decreasing again." According to the Public Health Agency, 1200 new cases and five deaths have been reported since Friday, a sharp increase on the average of 200 cases a day in recent weeks.

A massive mea culpa coming from Sweden very, very soon.

 

[jimbob]

Hmmm

https://www.theage.com.au/world/eur...s-as-covid-19-cases-rise-20200923-p55yfr.html



A massive mea culpa coming from Sweden very, very soon.

Yes, you can find the regional maps at

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#map-of-subnational-14-day-notification-rates

 

[dann]

It also is doing far worse than its Scandinavian peers, and is looking to introduce a lockdown in Stockholm.

Right now, some of the Danish numbers are worse than Sweden's, so if we ignore the dead, their relatives in mourning, the people still struggling with the long-term effects of Covid-19 and their relatives, and if we look instead at the numbers of new cases and Covid-19 patients in ICUs this week alone, Denmark is probably* doing worse than Sweden.

A massive mea culpa coming from Sweden very, very soon.

Don't look forward to** it and don't expect it to come. There was no mea culpa after the catastrophe of the first wave, and fortunately a second wave may be considerably milder than the first one.


*I say probably because testing in Sweden still isn't up to scratch, and Stockholm recommends that people only get tested if they are symptomatic. That is also the only explanation I see for the number of deaths and the number of people in ICUs in Sweden.

**I won't claim that the callous arrogance of the advocates of the Swedish strategy in the current situation doesn't annoy me, but there is no reason to hope for more Swedish deaths in order to prove them wrong. The deaths from the first wave were more than enough for that purpose, and for the most part the people dying aren't the Tegnell&Giesecke fans. Like everywhere else, the victims of the Swedish neoliberalist attitude are mainly the old and the vulnerable.