Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Ulf Nereng]

WHO official praises Sweden’s COVID-19 response despite higher death rate

https://fortune.com/2020/08/31/sweden-covid-response-who-official-death-rate/

One day Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy "is questioned" ...... another day it's "praised" ..... another day still it will be be condemned again. It's the standard fare for a problem that no one seems to know enough about. I think we can sum it up as "guesswork" and "trial and error". It'll be solved someday but until then don't pin your hopes on anyone.

The people who ought to ask questions are of course the Swedes themselves. It is unfortunate that the critisism so often comes from outside Sweden, since that appears to make Swedes go into a sort of defensive patriotism mode. I think we Norwegians might have done the same if it had been our policy that was criticized, unfortunately.

 

[dann]

I am totally unafraid of this virus, and totally unhappy with the response, and the perpetuities going forward.

You seem to think that you already had it and got over it so there is very little reason for you personally to fear it.

What's the cost of living in perpetual fear?

I think you would have to ask the old people cowering in their houses, which they don't want to leave because the virus is still running rampant. Young and healthy individuals have less reason to fear the consequences of infections for themselves. And yet a large percentage of hospitalizations in Denmark are now relatively young people.

The burden and psychological consequences of wearing masks everywhere, forcing them on children, and maintaining social distance also have enormous costs, not to mention other financial and social costs which are overlooked by <gasp> morbidity stats.

The weight of masks is insignificant. I have no idea what the psychological consequences are supposed to be unless you are talking about crazy Karens and Kevins, who embody the fact that a libertarian attitude may be bad for your mental health.
But there are other financial, social and QALY costs that appear in neither morbidity statistics nor in your considerations: The lasting misery of coronavirus long-haulers (Nature, Sep. 14, 2020)

Quote me QALYs, not death rates. If the Swedish Quality of Life has remained more or less the same in the face of a panicked world, then their approach has been successful.

You make the same mistake as most other people who argue with QALY against coronavirus restrictions and other attempts to prevent the disease from spreading. The irony is that you are actually the guys who are obsessed with the death toll and ignore everything else, thinking that everything would be normal if only concerned people wouldn't bother everybody else with masks and social distancing. Nobody would be depressed and nobody would lose their jobs, which they don't lose because of the disease, in your fantasies, but because of the restrictions.
But the reality of the Swedish fairy tale doesn't agree with you:

Professorn om äldre i isolering: Ofrivillig ensamhet dåligt för hälsan (SVT.se, May 11, 2020)
Coronaeffekter: Vårdpersonalen kan bli sjuk – av stressen (SVT.se, May 18, 2020)
”Collateral damage” i spåren av covid-19 (SVT.se, June 26, 2020)
Psykisk ohälsa hos vårdpersonal i spåren av corona (SVT.se, July 19, 2020)
Personer med psykisk ohälsa kan ha drabbats hårt av pandemin (SVT.se, July 23, 2020)
Fler söker vård för psykisk ohälsa – ”Riskerar att bli värre” (SVT.se, Aug. 6, 2020)

Arbetslös: ”Jag vet inte vad jag är berättigad till för hjälp” (SVT.se, March 22, 2020)
Trygghetsrådet befarar – fler arbetslösa i coronakrisens spår (SVT.se, May 12, 2020)
Arbetsförmedlingen: Nära 100 000 arbetslösa unga 2021 (SVT.se, July 1, 2020)
Arbetslösheten ökar bland unga – coronakrisen slår hårt (SVT.se, July 13, 2020)
”Situationen har blivit dubbelt så svår under corona” (SVT.se, Aug. 11, 2020)

 

[dann]

Scotland had 350 new infections reported yesterday. This is appalling and we're heading for tighter restrictions which won't work because they won't be enforced so there will be another lockdown and again it won't work because people have got the message that nothing is being enforced.

People are being politely asked to quarantine themselves if they've come back from certain foreign destinations, but few checks are made to ensure they're doing it and even fewer punishments are meted out. Restrictions on meeting other people have been announced and immediately undermined by the police announcing that they're going to be using "light touch" enforcement, which means that really huge parties, raves and so on might attract a fine but even if you're caught with a dozen people from different households in your house (you're very unlikely to be caught) the worst that's going to happen is that the police issue some "advice", you say sorry, and that's the end of it.

There have been no restrictions on travel within Britain. None at all. There have been people from heavily infected areas hundreds of miles away going on holiday to islands that hadn't had a case in months, and the virus is back in now. Friends of mine who live in one of the lock-down zones in Yorkshire travelled, quite legally, to their second home in Argyll. They're actually not a danger, they're retired and have scarcely gone out, and they intend to follow the instructions that people who live in a lock-down zone shouldn't visit other people even in non-lockdown zones, but really, should this be allowed in principle?

Unless we get some sane restrictions including travel limits and 2-metre distancing as a blanket rule everywhere, and these are rigorously enforced, I don't think we have a hope in hell of avoiding a repeat of March and April. The only small chink of hope is that if masks and distancing are partially observed, more cases may be mild so there could be fewer deaths.

Are people tested at the airports in Scotland?

It seems to have gone fairly well with the new restrictions in Denmark, but it remains to be seen if they will make the number of new cases go down.

’Tak’: Landet over er tidligere lukketid forløbet gnidningsfrit (DR.dk, Sep. 20, 2020)
'Thanks': It went smoothly with the earlier closing hours (for pubs and restaurants)

Flere brød opholdsforbud og en restaurant brød lukkekrav (TV2.dk, Sep. 20, 2020)
Several people broke the ban on gathering in particular places and one restaurant violated opening hours

 

[Tippit]

Strange how my freedom from being infected is worth less than your freedom to infect ...

In this case, your freedom from being infected is a function of your innumeracy, paranoia, and general inability to asses risks. You should be far more concerned with the likelihood that you will die of cancer and heart disease, than the poor unmasked soul next to you. Wake me up when the Chinese release MERS into the wild, and we have something worthy of a “lockdown”.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[lionking]

In this case, your freedom from being infected is a function of your innumeracy, paranoia, and general inability to asses risks. You should be far more concerned with the likelihood that you will die of cancer and heart disease, than the poor unmasked soul next to you. Wake me up when the Chinese release MERS into the wild, and we have something worthy of a “lockdown”.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Er, do you believe that China deliberately released covid?

And you those who are suggesting that covid is of little or no consequence to the young, do you personally know young people who contracted the virus? Because I do. My youngest son, who caught it on a flight from London to Australia in March. We got him into quarantine straight away, but he didn't do it easy.

He felt very sick for only a couple of days, but he admits to not feeling like he was before the virus for two months. And he is a slim, fit athlete. Even now he feels the need to have further testing because of the possibility of future complications. And nobody knows what future complications await those who suffered infections.

Unless, of course you do. In which case, please enlighten us.

Oh, and please spare us "everyone dies".

 

[dann]

In this case, your freedom from being infected is a function of your innumeracy, paranoia, and general inability to asses risks. You should be far more concerned with the likelihood that you will die of cancer and heart disease, than the poor unmasked soul next to you. Wake me up when the Chinese release MERS into the wild, and we have something worthy of a “lockdown”.

I am pretty sure that steenkh suffers from neither innumeracy, paranoia nor an inability to assess risk. I know as little about his concerns over dying from cancer or heart disease as you do. Have you seen him compare the risk of dying of Covid-19 with any of those?
But at least one good thing has come out of Woodward's Trump tapes: Trumpists have given up on comparing SARS-CoV-2 with bad flu seasons.

 

[Samson]

Tech Malfunction sorry

 

[dann]

More about Tegnell's 'mild-flu-season' apologetics

Tegnell får beröm i brittisk tidning: "En hjälte för många" (SVT.se, Sep. 19, 2020 – 18:31)
Tegnell is praised by British newspaper: ”A hero to many”
The SVT story refers to this article in The Sun:

WHEN the rest of the world blinked as coronavirus took hold, ice-cool Swede Anders Tegnell refused to lock down his nation.
How ice cool scientist saved Sweden from coronavirus WITHOUT lockdown – and now he’s a national hero (TheSun, Sep. 19, 2020)

Statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell förklarade för DN att den milda influensasäsongen i Sverige kan vara en av de främsta orsakerna till varför fler dött av covid-19 här än i våra grannländer.
En rapport han hänvisar till är författad av tre ekonomer och han får visst stöd, men professor Joacim Rocklöv kallar det för en orimlig förklaring.
Tegnells influensateori fortsatt omdebatterad (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 19. 2020)

National epidemiologist Anders Tegnell explained to Dagens Nyheter that the mild flu season in Sweden may be one of the main reasons why more people have died from Covid-19 than in our neighbouring countries.
He refers to a report written by three economists, and he does get some support, but professor Joacim Rocklöv calls it an unreasonable explanation.
Tegnell’s flu theory still contentious

Rapporten, som Anders Tegnell henviser til, er lavet af tre økonomi-forskere, der erklærer, at de fra starten har været “meget skeptiske” overfor lockdown-tiltag under covid-19.
Svensk teori: Høje dødstal i Sverige skyldes især, at kun få udsatte døde af influenza i 2019 – Jeg køber ikke teorien, siger dansk professor (DR.dk, Sep. 20, 2020)

The report that Anders Tegnell refers to is made by three economy researchers who declare that they have been ”very skeptical” of lockdown measures during Covid-19.
Swedish theory: High death toll in Sweden is mainly due to few vulnerable people dying from the flu in 2019 – I don’t buy that theory, Danish professor says.

 

[Pixel42]

You should be far more concerned with the likelihood that you will die of cancer and heart disease, than the poor unmasked soul next to you.

I can't catch cancer or heart disease from the person next to me. I can catch Covid-19 from them, if they're as thoughtless as you're encouraging them to be. I can do quite a lot to reduce my chances of dying from cancer or heart disease, I can do nothing to reduce my chances of dying as a result of the thoughtlessness of people like you.

BTW you do realise that the number of people dying from Covid-19 is despite all the mitigation you are complaining about? That without that mitigation, the number would be far higher? Perhaps, eventually, as high, or even higher, than the number dying from cancer or heart disease.

 

[dann]

Quote me QALYs, not death rates.

This one from today is interesting. Notice that death rates aren't mentioned at all:

The biggest risk for symptoms of depression was having had a mental health diagnosis before the pandemic, they found.
Stress and depression symptoms were also associated more with personal exposure than public spread, suggesting "concerns about contracting the disease outweighed concerns about pandemic-related disruptions in daily life," researchers said.
Employment also made a big impact, with those who lost their jobs suffering most and those who kept their jobs and those who felt purpose as essential workers at a lower risk for emotional symptoms -- even though they were at a greater risk for contracting the virus, researchers said.
Another significant factor in pandemic-related stress, they found, is the frequency with which participants were exposed to conflicting information from the media.
People were immersed in news an average of seven hours a day, they found. Acute stress increased as time went on, the surveys showed.
Consistent, accurate, reliable news and social media reports may be one of the best ways to control stress, they suggested.
As coronavirus skyrocketed in the US, so did stress and depression (CNN, Sep. 20, 2020)

In other words, all the things the POTUS (and Tegnell in Sweden, who also played down the threat of the virus as early as March) didn't do. Trying to calm people down with lies is not as reassuring as psychopaths make it out to be.

 

[dann]

Finland & Sweden

Finnländare: ”Gränsen kunde gott ha förblivit stängt” (SVT.se, Sep. 19, 2020)
Finns: ”It would have been OK if the border had remained closed.”

The prayers of (some) Finns have been heard:

Fartyget Amorella har gått på grund på finskt vatten] (SVT.se, Sep. 20, 2020)
The ship Amorella grounded in Finnish waters - on its way from Åbo/Turku (Finland) to Stockholm (Sweden)

 

[dann]

People are being politely asked to quarantine themselves if they've come back from certain foreign destinations, but few checks are made to ensure they're doing it and even fewer punishments are meted out.

I guess this may help - even if the police are very polite!

England imposes up to $13,000 fine for breaking COVID-19 rules - Rules to apply to those testing positive or notified by health workers they were in contact with someone infectious. (AlJazeera, Sep. 20, 2020)

 

[Tippit]

I can't catch cancer or heart disease from the person next to me. I can catch Covid-19 from them, if they're as thoughtless as you're encouraging them to be. I can do quite a lot to reduce my chances of dying from cancer or heart disease, I can do nothing to reduce my chances of dying as a result of the thoughtlessness of people like you.

I'm not thoughtless, I've put more thought into this than most people, and arrived at a starkly different conclusion. I realize the analogy between covid and heart disease is poor, but absent the QALYs I have only the mortality rates to compare, and on that basis, covid is a joke, and the response has been dramatically unfunny. Need I mention that I am compelled to wear a mask in many places, and I comply with the forced virtue signalling, so your accusation has no basis.

BTW you do realise that the number of people dying from Covid-19 is despite all the mitigation you are complaining about? That without that mitigation, the number would be far higher? Perhaps, eventually, as high, or even higher, than the number dying from cancer or heart disease.

Do you have evidence? How terrible would this be if life on earth as we knew it didn't end? Since the burden and hardship of the lockdowns is what *you* support, the burden of evidence should be on you. Link me to a study about the efficacy of the "interventions". As of right now, the covid death toll in the United States is roughly one-third of EITHER cancer OR heart disease, and one-sixth of both. Cause for alarm, certainly. Cause for the hardship given by the response? Absolutely not. Also note that I am willing to use evidence based-mitigation, such as mask-wearing (where required) to prevent the spread of this. It's all of the other nonsense that I object to.

 

[Tippit]

In other words, all the things the POTUS (and Tegnell in Sweden, who also played down the threat of the virus as early as March) didn't do. Trying to calm people down with lies is not as reassuring as psychopaths make it out to be.

It's worth mentioning that you have the benefit of hindsight, and you're still living in irrational fear. Back in January, we knew much less about this, and so a more aggressive response was arguably called for. If you read the news media coming out of Italy back then, you would think that it was the apocalypse, with bodies lining up in the street.

 

[Tippit]

You seem to think that you already had it and got over it so there is very little reason for you personally to fear it.

Correct. Neither do I see evidence of a pandemic around me, except for the non-stop virtue signaling, mask wearing, round stickers on the floor warning me to keep my distance, small businesses being shuttered while giant corporations remain open, massive BLM protests occuring while other not as politically woke gatherings get shuttered, financial market upheaval and massive central bank interventions on behalf of the rich, and then of course, the non-stop pandering and fear mongering by the media.

I think you would have to ask the old people cowering in their houses, which they don't want to leave because the virus is still running rampant. Young and healthy individuals have less reason to fear the consequences of infections for themselves. And yet a large percentage of hospitalizations in Denmark are now relatively young people.

I know a few such old people, also suffering from paranoia. But for the high risk immuno-compromised groups, let the burden of this "pandemic" fall on them, and not the rest of us. Quarantine them, not everyone else.

The weight of masks is insignificant. I have no idea what the psychological consequences are supposed to be unless you are talking about crazy Karens and Kevins, who embody the fact that a libertarian attitude may be bad for your mental health.
But there are other financial, social and QALY costs that appear in neither morbidity statistics nor in your considerations: The lasting misery of coronavirus long-haulers (Nature, Sep. 14, 2020)

That is patently false, in fact I personally know a nurse who told me that her hospital ran tests on mask-wearing, and it results in hypercarbia and lower blood pH even when worn moderately. Are you prepared to tell me with a straight face that the long term cumulative effects of hypercarbia are "insignificant"? She also mentioned that this applied specifically to the n95 and also the n100 masks used by ICU staff. Cloth masks were not tested, but neither does she think cloth masks are effective (which is of course what you mandate everyone wears in public).

As far as the psychological effects of mask wearing, I know that I'm personally sick of it, and I look forward to my casino cruise which is populated mostly with thoughtless people not wearing masks. It's very refreshing.

As far as long term consequences of Covid-19, those are mostly reserved for the people who regress in to ARDS. If you manage to avoid that and clear the virus, you're probably not going to be beset with any long term problems, although the jury is still out.

You make the same mistake as most other people who argue with QALY against coronavirus restrictions and other attempts to prevent the disease from spreading. The irony is that you are actually the guys who are obsessed with the death toll and ignore everything else, thinking that everything would be normal if only concerned people wouldn't bother everybody else with masks and social distancing. Nobody would be depressed and nobody would lose their jobs, which they don't lose because of the disease, in your fantasies, but because of the restrictions.
But the reality of the Swedish fairy tale doesn't agree with you:

I'm absolutely not obsessed with the death tolls, in fact I consciously avoid watching news. I only use the death tolls next to other mortality rates to put all the nonsense into proper perspective.

 

[Rolfe]

I guess this may help - even if the police are very polite!

England imposes up to $13,000 fine for breaking COVID-19 rules - Rules to apply to those testing positive or notified by health workers they were in contact with someone infectious. (AlJazeera, Sep. 20, 2020)

That doesn't apply in Scotland. The government is concerned that it's not possible to pressurise people to isolate by threatening fines if the main reason they're not isolating is that they can't afford to lose earnings. I don't know whether that "if" has been proved to be the case for the majority of offenders though. The premise is that people want to be good but fear of poverty is deterring them. May be true for some.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

In this case, your freedom from being infected is a function of your innumeracy, paranoia, and general inability to asses risks. You should be far more concerned with the likelihood that you will die of cancer and heart disease, than the poor unmasked soul next to you.

I had to give this statement of yours some thought. After a very quick read of it I didn't fully agree with you but now that it's sunk in I realize that you are perfectly right.

Wake me up when the Chinese release MERS into the wild, and we have something worthy of a “lockdown”.

Yes, I can do that on the condition that you're watching my back as well. We're probably on different time-zones and it's uncertain which one of us will get word of it first.

 

[Elagabalus]

I'm not thoughtless, I've put more thought into this than most people, and arrived at a starkly different conclusion...

So you watched Plandemic. Good to know.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Today in Minsk.

The sixth weekend of (shrinking but still) large protest moves against and for the government. This pic is from an anti-government rally as you can see by the flags. And even in this crowd only a minority wears masks.

So, once again: If there were a killervirus around, Belarus' streets would be full of corpses. But nothing happens.

But ye, I know you don't like to hear that and prefer to continue a distasteful daily bodycount out of ideological reasons - while hilariously accusing others of being obsessed. Carry on!

 

[dann]

So, once again: If there were a killervirus around, Belarus' streets would be full of corpses.

So once again: You are confusing reality with zombie movies!
1) There actually is a 'killer virus'.
2) SARS-COV-2 is not a slow killer like HIV, but it usually takes a couple of weeks for new cases to die from it, so there is no reason whatsoever to expect people to die in the street.
3) The protest takes place outdoors. At the BLM demonstration in Copenhagen with 15,000 protesters, very few of them with face masks, probably no more than four got infected.

But nothing happens.

Your argument is childish, not childlike: You present us with a description of the virus that is wildly exaggerated and out of proportion with what we know about it, and since your version of what can be expected doesn't play out, you conclude that "nothing happens."
Meanwhile, in the real world:

Belarus
Total cases: 75,674
New cases: 213
Active cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 780
New deaths: 4