Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

Sunday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 13, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 578 (5,846) 311* 13 *according to SVT.se No new numbers till Monday
Denmark: 109 (631) 333 4
Finland: 61 (337) 23 1
Norway: 49 (265) 44 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 3 0
Iceland has 63 active cases, Faroe Islands 13, New Zealand 97.
The Faroe Islands have 14 in quarantine, 1 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Five new Covid-19 cases were registered yesterday from Friday’s testing round, reports corona.fo.
They have all been quarantined, and contact tracing has been initiated.
All five persons contracted the virus domestically.
According to chief medical officer Lars Fodgaard Møller, two of them were already in quarantine, and the other three were believed to be exposed to the virus as they had close links to a known chain of infection.
Five new Covid-19 cases (KVF.fo, Sep. 13, 2020)

Ny melding fra politiet om nattens fester: Der er nogle der er ligeglade med sammenholdet (DR.dk, Sep. 13, 2020)
New report from the police about the parties last night: Some people don't care about solidarity

Borgmester vil have indført flere restriktioner i nattelivet (TV2.dk, Sep. 13, 2020)
Mayor wants more nightlife restrictions - It's the mayor of Frederiksberg where I live, a small but populous autonomous municipality in the middle of the municipality of Copenhagen. He finds it inconsistent that the municipality has been asked to let its employees work from home instead of (or in addition) locking down bars. Nightclubs and discos still haven't been allowed to reopen.

Norge passerar nu Sverige i antal smittfall per 100 000 invånare, skriver Aftenposten.
Det norska talet ligger nu på 24,8 och det svenska på 24.0 de senaste 14 dagarna, 76 nya smittfall har rapporterats in det senaste dygnet i Norge.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (Aftonbladet.se, Sep. 13, 2020 – 12:34)

Norway is now overtaking Sweden in cases of infection per 100,000, writes Aftenposten.
The Norwegian number is now 24.8 and the Swedish is 24.0 in the last two weeks, 76 new cases were reported in Norway in the last 24 hours.
Latest news about the coronavirus

Norge med høyere smittetall enn Sverige (Aftenposten.no, Sep. 13, 2020)
Norway has more new cases per capita than Sweden

Koronaviruset sprer seg i sårbare grupper: – Nå er det alvor, folkens! (Aftenposten.no, Sep. 13, 2020)
Coronavirus is spreading in vulnerable groups: - Now it's serious, guys!

 

[dann]

It's not as simple as elderly people receiving palliative care because the hospitals didn't have capacity. The hospitals did have capacity, and the elderly still received palliative care.

DN had two articles about this yesterday:

Alla läkarbesök kan inte dras in för att förhindra smitta på äldreboenden, enligt Thomas Lindén, statschefläkare och avdelningschef på Socialstyrelsen.
– Jag kan inte förstå hur en sådan idé kan uppstå i huvudet på en legitimerad sjukvårdspersonal.
Socialstyrelsen: ”Rekommendationen om distansvård har vantolkats” (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 13, 2020)

Not all visits by doctors can be cancelled to prevent infection in nursing homes, according to Thomas Lindén, chief physician and head of department at the National Board of Health and Welfare.
- I don’t understand how an idea like this can pop up in the heads of licensed healthcare professionals.
The National Board of Health and Welfare: "The recommendation on long-distance care was misinterpreted"

Bara 16 procent av de covidsjuka på särskilda boenden i Stockholm har remitterats till sjukhus.
Social- och omsorgsnämnden i Lidingö fick veta att läkare på distans beslutat om palliativ vård för åtta äldre som var sjuka i covid-19.
Kommunpolitiker kräver nu att regionen garanterar att läkare är på plats när vården ska gå över från kurerande till palliativ.
– För oss handlar det här om liv och död, säger socialutskottets ordförande Suzanne Liljegren (L).
Kommunpolitiker kräver regionens garanti för läkare på plats för beslut om palliativ vård (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 13, 2020)

Only 16 percent of covid patients in special housing in Stockholm were referred to hospital.
The Board of Social Affairs and Care in Lidingö was told that doctors made long-distance decisions on palliative care for eight elderly people who were ill with covid-19.
Municipal politicians now demand that the region guarantee that doctors are on site when care is to change from treatment to a palliative care.
– To us, this is a question of life and death, says the social committee's chairman Suzanne Liljegren (L).
Municipal politicians demand that the region guarantees that doctors are on site for decisions on palliative care

 

[dann]

Monday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 14, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 578 (5,846) 311* 13 *according to SVT.se The Swedish numbers are only made public Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Denmark: 109 (633) 347 4
Finland: 61 (337) 47 1
Norway: 49 (265) 65 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 3 0
Iceland has 63 active cases, Faroe Islands 11, New Zealand 96.
The Faroe Islands have 57 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.
Hospitals have implemented new restrictions for visitors who have recently arrived from abroad (KVF.fo, Sep. 14, 2020)

 

[dann]

Sweden in comparison to Denmark, Finland and Norway:

A reader asks about hospitalizations in the Nordic countries. SVT.se answers.

Det är klokt att studera flera olika variabler för att få en nyanserad bild av utvecklingen. Sverige hade 105 inlagda på sjukhus i fredags, enligt Folkhälsomyndigheten. Jämförbara siffror för våra grannländer är 28 i Danmark, 16 i Norge och åtta i Finland. Ser vi till antalet patienter i intensivvård är de 17 i Sverige enligt helgens siffror, att jämföra med tre i Danmark, tre i Norge och en i Finland. (alla uppgifter från FHM eller motsvarande, utom antalet inlagda på sjukhus i Norge som kommer från tidningen Adresseavisen).
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Sep. 14, 2020 – 1:50)

It is wise to study several different variables to get a nuanced picture of the development. Sweden had 105 hospitaliztions on Friday, according to the Public Health Agency (FHM). Comparable numbers in our neighbouring countries are 28 in Denmark, 16 in Norway and 8 in Finland. If we look at the numbers of patients in ICUs, they are 17 in Sweden according to the numbers from this weekend, in comparison to 3 in Denmark, 3 in Norway and 1 in Finland. (all the information is from FHM or similar agencies, except for the number of people hospitalized in Norway, which is from the newspaper Adresseavisen.)
Latest news about the coronavirus - The number of hospitalizations in Denmark is actually higher, 50, and there are 4 patients in ICUs, one of those on a ventilator.

Another reader asks about testing, and SVT.se answers:

Enligt de här uppgifterna testades i snitt 1,78 personer per tusen invånare dagligen i Sverige första veckan i september, att jämföra med 1,53 i Finland, 2,02 i Norge och 5,67 i Danmark. Flera andra länder ligger under Sverige, däribland Kanada, Nederländerna och Österrike.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Sep. 13, 2020 – 23:37)

According to this information, on average 1.78 a day of 1,000 people in Sweden were tested in the first week of September, in comparison to 2.53 in Finland, 2.02 in Norway and 5.67 in Denmark. Several countries test fewer than Sweden, for instance Canada, the Netherlands and Austria.
Latest news about the coronavirus This difference was forgotten by the Swedish media yesterday when they were so excited about Norway's slightly higher number of new cases per capita than Sweden. And Stockholm now tells people to only get tested if they have symptoms: "Only if you are ill with symptoms of Covid-19 are you encouraged to book a time for testing (PCR test)."

Denmark:

Ekspert: For høje smittetal
Der er 347 nye smittetilfælde mandag.
- Det er stabilt, men det er stabilt på et for højt niveau efter min opfattelse. Og nu begynder vi også at se, at antallet af indlæggelser langsomt stiger. Det kan gå meget hurtigt, siger han.
Seneste nyt om coronavirus (DR.dk, Sep. 14, 2020 – 14:20)

Expert: Too many new infections
- The number is stable, but stable at a level that is too high, in my opinion. And now we are beginning to see the number of hospitalizations rise.
It may go very fast.
Latest news about the coronavirus

347 nye smittede -og nu er smitten ikke længere begrænset til de unge, siger ekspert (TV2.dk, Sep. 14, 2020)
347 new cases - and they are no longer limited to young people, expert says

Der skal reageres nu, siger Statens Serum Institut om smittespredningen (TV2.dk, Sep. 14, 2020)
We have to react now, says Statens Serum Institut about the current spread of the virus

Professor om smittetallene: Københavnsk natteliv bør lukkes helt ned (DR.dk, Sep. 14, 2020)
Professor about the number of new cases: Nightlife in Copenhagen should be locked down completely - I agree. It was too much to have schools and universities reopen more or less at the same time as the extension of the opening hours of bars. More restrictions are necessary in Copenhagen (and Frederiksberg), and as soon as possible.

 

[dann]

Tuesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 15, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 579 (5,851) 840* 17** *since Friday, according to SVT.se **134 Covid-19 patients hospitalized in addition to the 17 in ICUs
Denmark: 109 (633) 334 4 – 55 hospitalized, R₀ 1.5
Finland: 61 (339) 98 3
Norway: 49 (265) 54 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 6 0
Iceland has 62 active cases, Faroe Islands 16, New Zealand 83.
The Faroe Islands have 57 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Four people were infected domestically and have been identified as belonging to the same known chain of infection.
The fifth person is a non-Faroese resident, who tested positive upon arrival at Vágar Airport.
Five new Covid-19 cases (KVF.fo, Sep. 15, 2020)

 

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Att Sverige haft få sjukhusinläggningar och få dödsfall de senaste månaderna, visar att det inte var den svenska strategin som orsakade Sveriges många döda i covid-19. Det säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell till fransk tv.
Tegnell: Sveriges strategi inte orsak till dödstalet (SydsvenskaDagbladet.se, Sep. 13, 2020)

That Sweden has had few hospitalizations and few deaths in recent months shows that the Swedish strategy wasn't the cause of the many deaths from Covid-19, says national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to French TV.
Tegnell: Sweden’s strategy didn’t cause the death toll

Today, with low mortality and a falling number of Covid-19 cases, Dr. Anders Tegnell, the architect of this strategy, hails the policy and says he has "some confidence" for the future.
Sweden’s chief epidemiologist: 'We are happy with our strategy' on Covid-19 (France24, Sep. 11, 2020)

France 24, Sep. 11, 2020 (13:04): Sweden's chief epidemiologist: 'We are happy with our strategy' on Covid-19 (Interview in English)


France 24, Sep. 2, 2020 (1:20): Sweden's top epidemiologist is refusing to recommend face masks (in English)

 

[dann]

And speaking of face masks. Three interesting articles:

Forskare: Mer tyder på att munskydden hjälper (Aftonbladet.se, Sep. 13, 2020)
Researchers: More things seem to indicate that face masks help

Face masks could be giving people Covid-19 immunity, researchers suggest (Telegraph, Sep. 12, 2020)
Viral load: How much of the virus does it take to make us sick? (Telegraph, Sep. 3, 2020)

 

[dann]

Nye restriktioner i Storkøbenhavn: Mundbind på restauranter og natteliv skal lukke (DR.dk, Sep. 15, 2020)
New restrictions in the Copenhagen area: Facemasks in restaurants and nightlife to close at 10 p.m. - The Copenhagen area consists of Copenhagen proper, Frederiksberg and 15 suburbs. Facemasks are to be worn at cafés and bars, too.

Mølbak: Find fem eller ti personer at ses med i efteråret (TV2.dk, Sep. 15, 2020)
Mølbak: Find five or ten people to meet this autumn For the coming autumn and winter, the leader of the Statens Serum Institut recommends that people limit socializing to no more than a small 'bubble' of five to ten people.
A socialist party wants to do a similar thing with schools and nursing homes: split them up in small units to make it easier to track contacts and limit the number of students and teachers that need to sent home to self-quarantine when there is an outbreak:

SF vil hindre smitte med små grupper på skoler og plejehjem (TV2.dk, Sep. 15, 2020)
Socialist People's Party wants to prevent virus transmission by means of small groups at schools and in nursing homes

 

[dann]

Det är dock uppenbart att grannlandet hittills klarat sig betydligt bättre under pandemin med 265 avlidna jämfört med 5 851 i Sverige. Frode Forland tror att förklaringen är den snabba nedstängningen av samhället i mars.
– Vi slog till hårt i mars och med bra tajming. Hela samhället förstod att det var allvar och vi fick en snabb effekt. Jag tror att det är förklaringen till att vi har färre döda i Norge än i Sverige.
Snabb nedstängning innebar färre smittade i samhället, och därmed minskade risken för att coronaviruset skulle nå fram till äldre och riskgrupper, säger han.
– Vi har ungefär samma nivå andel döda på äldreboenden och sjukhem som i Sverige, 50-60 procent. Om man håller trycket nere i samhället som sådant blir det färre som avlider på institutionerna.
Norges ”Tegnell”: Därför har vi färre döda i Norge än i Sverige (SVT.se, Sep. 16, 2020)

However, it is obvious that the neighboring country (Norway) has so far fared significantly better during the pandemic with 265 deaths compared to 5,851 in Sweden. Frode Forland believes that the explanation is the fast lockdown of society in March.
– We struck hard in March and with good timing. The whole community understood that it was serious and we got a fast impact. I think that this is the reason why we have fewer deaths in Norway than in Sweden.
The fast lockdown meant fewer infections in society, and thus we reduced the risk that the coronavirus would reach the elderly and risk groups, he says.
- We have about the same percentage of deaths in homes for the elderly and in nursing homes as in Sweden, 50-60 percent. If you keep the pressure of infection down in society as such, fewer people will die in the institutions.
Norway’s ”Tegnell”: This is why we have fewer deaths in Norway than in Sweden

Sverige har hånats, kallats för karikatyr och skällts ut för sin unika coronastrategi. Nu följer alla länder i Europa den svenska modellen – men ingen skulle våga erkänna det, säger ledande virusexperter som SvD har talat med.
Revanschen: I dag följer alla Sveriges strategi (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Sep. 12, 2020)

Sweden has been mocked, called a caricature and scolded for its unique corona strategy. Now all countries in Europe follow the Swedish model - but no one would dare to admit it, say leading virus experts that SvD has spoken to.
The revenge: Today, everybody is following Sweden's strategy

- It is obvious that they want to believe this, but I am not sure if they actually do. The rest of the article is behind a paywall, but it begins like this:

På långfredagen i år höll Donald Trump en av sina många presskonferenser om coronaviruset.
– Om vi följde den svenska strategin skulle vi få två miljoner döda. Sverige har stora svårigheter. Sverige lider enormt. Jag menar, Sverige lider enormt, sade USA:s president.

On Good Friday this year, Donald Trump held one of his many press briefings on the corona virus.
– If we followed the Swedish strategy, we would get two million deaths. Sweden has great difficulties. Sweden is suffering enormously. I mean, Sweden is suffering very gravely, said the President of the United States.

– If the article concludes that the USA is now following the Swedish strategy, it should also be possible for the journalist to recognize that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the USA is an unmitigated disaster.

 

[dann]

Wednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 16, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 579 (5,860) 230* 15 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 109 (633) 334 4 Due to technical difficulties, the Danish numbers won’t be updated till tomorrow, Thursday
Finland: 61 (339) 25 3
Norway: 49 (265) 38 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 15 0
Iceland has 75 active cases, Faroe Islands 16, New Zealand 79.
The Faroe Islands have 59 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Two more people have been quarantined, bringing this total up to 59.
No-one is currently undergoing hospital treatment for Covid-19.
The daily number of positive Covid tests over the past week has been as follows: 1, 1, 0, 2, 5, 0, 5 and 0.
More than 111,000 tests have been carried out in the Faroes since the outbreak in March.
No new Covid cases (KVO.fo, Sep. 16, 2020)

Denmark:
Regeringen ser på smittetal med 'tilbageholdt åndedræt’ (TV2.dk, Sep. 16, 2020 – 17:26)
The government is watching the number of new cases while ’holding its breath’ - i.e. it hopes that the new restrictions in the Copenhagen area are enough to bring down the level of transmission, the same way recent local measures have been successful in Aarhus and Odense.

 

[dann]

Sveriges høje coronadødstal kan delvist forklares med, at der var en mild influenzasæson i 2019, mener statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell.
Han siger, at den milde sæson medførte, at mange syge og svagelige, som sædvanligvis dør under en influenzaepidemi, overlevede. De døde i stedet under coronapandemien. Det siger Tegnell til Dagens Nyheter.
- Det, som man nu har set, er, at de lande, som har haft en ret så lav dødelighed af influenza i de seneste to eller tre år som for eksempel Sverige - har en vældig høj overdødelighed af Covid-19. Det siger den svenske statsepidemiolog.
- Mens de lande, som havde høj influenzadødelighed de to seneste vintre som for eksempel Norge, har haft en ganske lav covid-dødelighed. Man har set samme tendens i flere andre lande. Dette er måske ikke hele forklaringen, men en del af den, mener Tegnell.
Mild influenzasæson forhøjede svenske coronadødstal (BT/Reuters, Sep. 17, 2020)

Sweden’s high Covid-19 death toll can in part be explained by the mild flu season of 2019, national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell thinks.
He says that the mild season meant that many sick and weak people who usually die in a flu epidemic survived. They died in the corona pandemic instead, according to Tegnell.
- What we have seen is that the countries that had a rather low mortality rate from influenza in the last two or three years, like for instance Sweden, have a very high excess mortality from Covid-19, the Swedish national epicemiologist says.
- Whereas the countries that had a high rate of mortality from influenza the last two winters, like for instance Norway, have had a very low rate of mortality from Covid-19. We have seen the same tendency in several other countries. It may not be the whole explanation, but it is a part of it, Tegnell thinks.
Mild flu season increased the Swedish Covid-19 death toll

If only this ******* spent as much time trying to improve the Swedish pandemic response as he does trying to come up with more dumb excuses for his failed strategy, immense suffering could have been prevented and thousands of lives could have been saved.
Why does he think so many people in Sweden got infected in comparison to the number in Norway?


ETA:

Swedish State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnellin According to last year’s mild flu season largely explains the country’s high coronary death rate. There is a strong link between low flu-related mortality and covid-19 mortality, Tegnell says to Today news in an interview with the magazine.
Sweden’s Tegnell Finds New Cause of High Coronary Death: Last Year’s Mild Flu – Abroad (en24news, Sep. 17, 2020)

Today news in the quotation above is actually the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter:
Tegnells förklaring: Därför dog så många tidigt i Sverige (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 17, 2020)

 

[dann]

Finnish health boss disagrees with Tegnell's explanation for Sweden's many Covid-19 deaths quoted in post 2111 above:

– Det kan förklara en del av saken men jag tror inte skillnaden mellan Finland och Sverige hänger på det, säger han till DN.
Finlands hälsosäkerhetschef delar inte Tegnells influensateori fullt ut (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 17, 2020)

– It may explain part of it, but I don’t thnk the difference between Finland and Sweden is due to that, he says to DN.
Finland’s director of health safety doesn’t fully agree with Tegnell’s flu theory

 

[dann]

Thursday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 17, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 580 (5,865) 310* 15 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 110 (635) 453* 3 *822 since Tuesday
Finland: 61 (339) 49 3
Norway: 49 (266) 73 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 17 0
Iceland has 84 active cases, Faroe Islands 17, New Zealand 77.
The Faroe Islands have 60 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.
One new Covid case (KVO.fo, Sep. 17, 2020)


Knap hver tredje indlagt med corona er under 45: ’Det er ikke længere gratis at blive smittet’ (DR.dk, Sep. 17, 2020)
Almost every third person hospitalized is younger than 45: ’It is no longer without consequences to get infected’ - When the number of hospitalizations peaked in April, only 7.5 percent were younger than 45. Back then, 55 percent were older than 75. Now it’s 35 percent.

Smittegrænse overskredet: Danmark ville nu selv fraråde rejser til Danmark (TV2.dk, Sep. 17, 2020)
The limit has now been crossed. With the number of new infections, Denmark would now advise against travelling to Denmark - Denmark has had 30.02 new cases per 100,000 in the last 7 days

- Vi er nødt til at sætte vores liv på pause (TV2.dk, Sep. 17, 2020)
- We have to pause our lives - says the mayor of Copenhagen

1,3 millioner danskere skal testes for antistoffer mod corona (DR.dk, Sep. 17, 2020)
1.3 million Danes to be tested for antibodies against coronavirus

Bill Gates: Sveriges coronastrategi var ett misstag (Di-TV.se, Sep. 17, 2020)
Bill Gates: Sweden’s corona strategy was a mistake

 

[dann]

After the leading epidemiologists in both Norway and Finland have criticized Anders Tegnell, Tegnell now resorts to his old excuse: It's much too soon to compare the different strategies:
Tegnell: ”För tidigt för att jämföra länder” (SVT.se, Sep. 18, 2020)
Tegnell: ”Too early to compare with other countries”

One Danish expert is ready to forget about Sweden’s death toll now that the number of new cases has decreased:
Sverige løsner coronagreb efter succesfulde uger: 'Svenskerne har lidt heldigt knækket koden' (DR.dk, Sep. 18, 2020)
Sweden loosens its corona grip after successful weeks: ’The Swedes have cracked the code’

I'm pleased to see that the Danish government is not impressed by Sweden's 'herd mentality':

- Vi kommer ikke til at tænke, at hvis man har en vis alder, så må man ryge i svinget, fordi der er kommet en global økonomi, siger Mette Frederiksen.
Coronavirus - Live (EkstraBladet.dk, Sep. 18, 2020 – 14:46)

- We won’t start thinking that if you have reached a certain age, then it’s your time to go because the economy is globalized, Mette Frederiksen says.
Coronavirus - Live

14 procent af de indlagte er under 30 år (TV2.dk, Sep. 18, 2020 – 14:15)
14 percent of hospitalized Covid-19 patients are now younger than 30 - In total, 58 are now hospitalized, two fewer than yesterday. And new restrictions for the whole country; basically, the restrictions that are already in place in the Copenhagen area will now apply to the whole country: restaurants, bars etc. close at 10 p.m.

 

[dann]

Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 18, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 580 (5,865) 352* 15 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 110 (635) 454 3
Finland: 61 (339) 59 3
Norway: 49 (266) 73* 1 *68 of the new cases in Norway are in Oslo (BT, Sep. 18, 2020 – 13:37)
Iceland: 29 (10) 24 0
Iceland has 108 active cases, Faroe Islands 18, New Zealand 77. Iceland is locking down all bars and discos in the capital.
The Faroe Islands have 59 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Hundreds of Faroese people travel to and from Denmark every week, and most of these are young students who lead active social lives, he says.
This is clearly reflected in the Faroese Covid statistics, where the 20-29 age group dominates the figures, with 59 cases registered, followed by the 10-19s and the 40-49s (20) and the 30s-39s (19).
Doctor: young people play crucial Covid role (KVO.fo, Sep. 18, 2020)

 

[dann]

Saturday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 19, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 580 (5,865) 352* 15 *according to SVT.se No new numbers till Tuesday.
Denmark: 110 (635) 589* 4 * Still rising dramatically, and the effects of the new restrictions aren’t to be expected for another week.
Finland: 61 (339) 64 3
Norway: 49 (266) 51* 2 *68 of those in Oslo (BT, Sep. 18, 2020 – 13:37)
Iceland: 29 (10) 77 0
Iceland has 181 active cases, Faroe Islands 19, New Zealand 67.
The Faroe Islands have 59 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.

Geographical spread – weeks 31 to 34 (Danish police chief on Twitter, Sep. 19, 2020)

Fødselsdagsfest udviklede sig til superspreder: - Vi fulgte alle retningslinjer (TV2.dk, Sep. 19, 2020)
Birthday party turned into as superspreader event: - We followed all the guidelines - 45 of 66 got infected

62 Covid-19 patients are now hospitalized – the highest number in three months (TV2.dk, Sep. 19, 2020 – 13:48)

 

[Rolfe]

Scotland had 350 new infections reported yesterday. This is appalling and we're heading for tighter restrictions which won't work because they won't be enforced so there will be another lockdown and again it won't work because people have got the message that nothing is being enforced.

People are being politely asked to quarantine themselves if they've come back from certain foreign destinations, but few checks are made to ensure they're doing it and even fewer punishments are meted out. Restrictions on meeting other people have been announced and immediately undermined by the police announcing that they're going to be using "light touch" enforcement, which means that really huge parties, raves and so on might attract a fine but even if you're caught with a dozen people from different households in your house (you're very unlikely to be caught) the worst that's going to happen is that the police issue some "advice", you say sorry, and that's the end of it.

There have been no restrictions on travel within Britain. None at all. There have been people from heavily infected areas hundreds of miles away going on holiday to islands that hadn't had a case in months, and the virus is back in now. Friends of mine who live in one of the lock-down zones in Yorkshire travelled, quite legally, to their second home in Argyll. They're actually not a danger, they're retired and have scarcely gone out, and they intend to follow the instructions that people who live in a lock-down zone shouldn't visit other people even in non-lockdown zones, but really, should this be allowed in principle?

Unless we get some sane restrictions including travel limits and 2-metre distancing as a blanket rule everywhere, and these are rigorously enforced, I don't think we have a hope in hell of avoiding a repeat of March and April. The only small chink of hope is that if masks and distancing are partially observed, more cases may be mild so there could be fewer deaths.

 

[Tippit]

I value freedom more than safety, to the extent that I favor an almost laissez-faire approach to covid-19. It's likely that the Covid death toll in the US this year will be somewhere around 300k, given models of current policies and interventions. This is a fraction of the 1.2m who are expected to die from cancer and heart disease combined, and yet, life as we know it has been brought to a halt by the draconian responses. With the benefit of hindsight, and given everything we know up until now, shouldn't Sweden's and every other countries' approach be judged by a metric of cost-beneficiality, such as QALYs (quality adjusted life years), as opposed to metrics like infection rates, and deaths per million? Virtually every other healthcare intervention is driven by this metric, so why the exception for this disease?

Edited by Agatha: 

Edited to remove material sent to the Vitamin C thread.

What's the cost of living in perpetual fear? The burden and psychological consequences of wearing masks everywhere, forcing them on children, and maintaining social distance also have enormous costs, not to mention other financial and social costs which are overlooked by <gasp> morbidity stats. We've responded to a disease with a death rate that is a small multiple of the influenza virus, with interventions appropriate for a disease more like MERS, with a 33% death rate. It's absolutely insane.

We could eliminate automotive accident fatalities by banning cars and trucks (with massive consequences) and get those death rates down to zero, but at what cost? We could take the Chinese approach and barricade Covid victims in their houses, and sharply reduce infection and mortality rates even more than current interventions, but at what cost?

Quote me QALYs, not death rates. If the Swedish Quality of Life has remained more or less the same in the face of a panicked world, then their approach has been successful.

 

[Elagabalus]

I value freedom more than safety, ....

<<<SNIP>>>>

Quote me QALYs, not death rates. If the Swedish Quality of Life has remained more or less the same in the face of a panicked world, then their approach has been successful.

YAWN

The Covid-19 thread is up in SMM&T thread.

...Quote me QALYs, not death rates...

No. Do your own heavy lifting.

 

[steenkh]

I value freedom more than safety[…]

Strange how my freedom from being infected is worth less than your freedom to infect ...