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2020 Presidential Election

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Sherkeu said:
Yep. Totally serious.
Do you have something constructive to add?
These are my ideas, my experience.

I also think Trump will win and this forum will go totally bananas...again.
:boxedin:
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I no longer even pretend to be able to predict electoral futures. I go into this thing with complete uncertainty.

one thing is certain though, if Trump wins again, the Democrats will again learn nothing from it and double down on the losing strategy.
 
Sherkeu said:
Yep. Totally serious.
Do you have something constructive to add?
These are my ideas, my experience.

I also think Trump will win and this forum will go totally bananas...again.
:boxedin:
Click to expand...

What electoral map do you see Trump having? Keep in mind Biden is in a much different/better position than Clinton was at this point in 2016. The post Labor Day narrowing hasn't narrowed was much this year as compared to 2016.
 
Sherkeu said:
I also think Trump will win and this forum will go totally bananas...again.
:boxedin:
Click to expand...
Election forecasts sem to range from about 75%-90+%. Granted, even a 1/5 chance of Trump winning four more years is terrifying, but at least the odds are heavily in our favour.

Things can go both ways the last month or so before election night, but I predict the October surprises this year will be more damaging for Trump than for Biden. The leaks and tell-all books so far have been pretty damning, I can only imagine what people might still be sitting on.
 
Sherkeu said:
I also think Trump will win and this forum will go totally bananas...again.
:boxedin:
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Okay seriously when will anyone who supports/performs apologetics for Trump ever own up to any reason beyond "LOL Librul Tears."

SuburbanTurkey said:
one thing is certain though, if Trump wins again, the Democrats will again learn nothing from it and double down on the losing strategy.
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If Trump wins again it will be the last free and open election we have. There won't be another one for the Dems to lose.

Craig4 said:
What electoral map do you see Trump having?
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Either the same ones that all had Hillary winning in 2016 or the "I don't care what the maps says I'm declaring myself the winner anyway" one.
 
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Craig4 said:
What electoral map do you see Trump having? Keep in mind Biden is in a much different/better position than Clinton was at this point in 2016. The post Labor Day narrowing hasn't narrowed was much this year as compared to 2016.
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I see the Biden/Trump race as basically a rematch of Clinton/Trump, but with some key disadvantages for Trump this time around, including (in no particular order):

- Pandemic and resulting economic damage under Trump leadership
- Biden does not have nearly the same level of prior baggage and public animus as Hillary
- President Trump's record makes him seem more unacceptable than candidate Trump in 2016
- Anti Trump animus will boost turnout despite Biden's otherwise uncompelling candidacy.

Trump still has the advantage that his very presence triggers the libs, which goes a long way for reactionary right wingers, and the party is very much now unified to support him (defectors aside).

My amateur guess is that the current economic downturn is going to be a big boon for Biden and gives him a big advantage in what otherwise would have been a very close race, perhaps favoring Trump.

I doubt the symbolic victories of a continued Trump presidency make up for the practical downsides that his inept leadership is inflicting on the country. Candidate Trump in 2016 was a guilt-free thumb in the eye of the establishment, but now the voting base has been living in his world for 4 years, and it kinda sucks, even if he's your guy.

But who knows anymore. Anything can happen.
 
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Safe-Keeper said:
Election forecasts sem to range from about 75%-90+%. Granted, even a 1/5 chance of Trump winning four more years is terrifying, but at least the odds are heavily in our favour.

Things can go both ways the last month or so before election night, but I predict the October surprises this year will be more damaging for Trump than for Biden. The leaks and tell-all books so far have been pretty damning, I can only imagine what people might still be sitting on.
Click to expand...

I expect that Trump will do something with a vaccine like he did with blood plasma and it will be a non-event. Worse, it will be a non-event that makes people not trust the vaccine. People don't want an announcement, they want a safe and effective vaccination. He's cried wolf too many times since this started for anything he says to impress anyone but his base and he can't win with just his base.
 
My big fear is the Democratic... well not strategy pers se because that's a separate and distinct thing but "winning narrative" is "Well guys we did it. We finally got mad enough at the guy who was elected to get us mad that we have to win." A lot of the Democratic language really does seem to revolve around some variation on "Look how bad things have gotten" as some sort of negative for Trump. Basically they are far too often running against a known admitted troll with a know admitted troll base by screaming about how angry he makes them.

Again all the drama, all the hatred, all the damage is not hurting Trump in the same way it would hurt a normal good or even normal bad or even "stupid crazy evil within normal parameters" President.

Again is any of this for certain? No. 2016 was literally a game of inches in about 3 counties and the last 4 years have not be stabilizing for sure.
 
Again I'm not as worried about Biden not winning as I am about Biden winning and Trump just going "LOL no."

Assuming (hopefully not naively) that the major pollsters have adjusted for their errors in 2016 it seems that Biden at least has the "Blue Wall" back that Hillary lost, so 270+ in the EC seems likely. Not certain, but likely.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Again I'm not as worried about Biden not winning as I am about Biden winning and Trump just going "LOL no."

Assuming (hopefully not naively) that the major pollsters have adjusted for their errors in 2016 it seems that Biden at least has the "Blue Wall" back that Hillary lost, so 270+ in the EC seems likely. Not certain, but likely.
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Joe Biden is Running an Invisible Digital Campaign in All-Important Michigan. That's Making Some Democrats Nervous

The Biden campaign in Michigan refused to confirm the location of any physical field offices despite repeated requests; they say they have “supply centers” for handing out signs, but would not confirm those locations. The campaign also declined to say how many of their Michigan staff were physically located here. Biden’s field operation in this all-important state is being run through the Michigan Democratic Party’s One Campaign, which is also not doing physical canvassing or events at the moment. When I ask Biden campaign staffers and Democratic Party officials how many people they have on the ground in Michigan, one reply stuck out: “What do you mean by ‘on the ground?'”
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https://time.com/5889093/joe-biden-michigan-campaign/

Biden seems to be a taking a "light touch" to the pivotal swing state Michigan. What could go wrong?
 
I know. You're mad Biden is the candidate. We all know.

Can you stop wanting him to fail though?
 
Trump Tweets

The big Unsolicited Ballot States should give it up NOW, before it is too late, and ask people to go to the Polling Booths and, like always before, VOTE. Otherwise, MAYHEM!!! Solicited Ballots (absentee) are OK.
@foxandfriends

Because of the new and unprecedented massive amount of unsolicited ballots which will be sent to “voters”, or wherever, this year, the Nov 3rd Election result may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED, which is what some want. Another election disaster yesterday. Stop Ballot Madness!
 
He's still on about some imaginary difference between absentee ballots and voting by mail isn't he?
 
JoeMorgue said:
I know. You're mad Biden is the candidate. We all know.

Can you stop wanting him to fail though?
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I don't want him to fail, I deeply suspect he will fail. There's a difference.

We're all in the same boat, the difference is I have no confidence in the captain.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

The big Unsolicited Ballot States should give it up NOW, before it is too late, and ask people to go to the Polling Booths and, like always before, VOTE. Otherwise, MAYHEM!!! Solicited Ballots (absentee) are OK.
@foxandfriends

Because of the new and unprecedented massive amount of unsolicited ballots which will be sent to “voters”, or wherever, this year, the Nov 3rd Election result may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED, which is what some want. Another election disaster yesterday. Stop Ballot Madness!
Click to expand...
"Trump campaign strategy now clear: he’s running against the election itself."

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1306563202470248448
 
JoeMorgue said:
BUT NOBODY SUGGEST THAT HE WON'T STEP DOWN IF HE LOSES! WE WOULDN'T WANT TO BE "DRAMATIC" OR ANYTHING!
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Well, at least the Biden campaign prepares for the worst.

Democrat Joe Biden is assembling a team of top lawyers in anticipation of court challenges to the election process that could ultimately determine who wins the race for the White House.

Biden’s presidential campaign says the legal war room will work to ensure that elections are properly administered and votes correctly counted. It will also seek to combat voter suppression at the polls, identify foreign interference and misinformation, and educate voters on the different methods available for casting ballots.

The effort, which the Biden campaign described as the largest election protection program in presidential campaign history, reflects the extent of the preparation underway for an already divisive presidential contest in November that could produce significant, perhaps even decisive, court cases over voter access and the legitimacy of mail ballots.

https://apnews.com/abc9a144ca6314471a44fb9b87196bac
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