Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 24

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Yeah but you have to remember how much utter hatred 538 got from a lot of people for being so "bullish" on Trump back in 2016.

There's still people on the fringe that sort of halfway blame 538 for Trump, a whole "He wouldn't have won if you hadn't made it seem so possible, if you had given him .00000000000002% chance like everyone else was giving him nobody would have voted for him." kind of thing.
 
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Mader Levap said:
I think Trump will lose in nov, despite all authoritarian tactics, voting suppression, crippling post office and all of that typical rethuglicanery - because he will be as competent campaigning as in any other of his failtastic ventures.

Worst enemy of Trump is Trump.

(of course, that does not mean one can be complacent)
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He doesn't need to campaign, he just needs the media to keep him in the spotlight.

There are enough people who vote on name recognition alone that when they're added to his base, it gives him a good chance of reelection.
 
The Don said:
FiveThirtyEight is currently giving President Trump a 27% chance of winning the election in 2020.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

In other words, a greater chance than in 2016.

Be motivated to vote Democrats, be very motivated to vote :(
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Fortunately people will be far less likely to stay home this time. Both because they won't take victory for granted this time, and because everyone has seen Trump for what he is.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Fortunately people will be far less likely to stay home this time. Both because they won't take victory for granted this time, and because everyone has seen Trump for what he is.
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But 40+% of the voters still like what they see. You can be sure they won't stay home. And in 2016 Trump couldn't sabotage the Post Office, send troops wherever he wants and announce a covid cure a week before the election. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
 
Bob001 said:
But 40+% of the voters still like what they see. You can be sure they won't stay home. And in 2016 Trump couldn't sabotage the Post Office, send troops wherever he wants and announce a covid cure a week before the election. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
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The popular vote for Trump is very unlikely to increase, but that is not relevant. The USA’s weird election system requires the popular vote for a candidate to be concentrated in very specific states in order to elect a president. Who the majority of citizens want to see as their president does not matter.

Note: this is assuming 2 parties and 2 candidates, which is another USA peculiarity.
 
Steve said:
The popular vote for Trump is very unlikely to increase, but that is not relevant. The USA’s weird election system requires the popular vote for a candidate to be concentrated in very specific states in order to elect a president. Who the majority of citizens want to see as their president does not matter.
....
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Yeah, we all get that. And Trump is competitive, if not winning, in those few swing states.
 
Steve said:
The popular vote for Trump is very unlikely to increase, but that is not relevant. The USA’s weird election system requires the popular vote for a candidate to be concentrated in very specific states in order to elect a president. Who the majority of citizens want to see as their president does not matter.

Note: this is assuming 2 parties and 2 candidates, which is another USA peculiarity.
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Because California and New York are solidly blue, Biden has an advantage this year. Most of the ruby red states are smaller and have fewer electoral votes. Trump pretty much has to win all the toss ups. Biden has several maps to 270 where Trump not only has to win ALL the toss-up states but flip some combination of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
 
Craig4 said:
Because California and New York are solidly blue, Biden has an advantage this year. Most of the ruby red states are smaller and have fewer electoral votes. Trump pretty much has to win all the toss ups. Biden has several maps to 270 where Trump not only has to win ALL the toss-up states but flip some combination of Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
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And he did in 2016, when the Democrats had the same advantages. Be afraid, be very afraid.
 
Belz... said:
Also, I'd think they've improved their algorithms and such.
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They have. If you look into their detailed explanation, the odds are currently the same but for very different reasons. In 2016, the polls were just that close on Election Day. In 2020, the polls are nowhere near that close, but they come with a big dollop of extra uncertainty because that's what they're using to model the effects of the pandemic and GOP election tampering and Trump's inevitable chuckledickery until and after then.
 
Craig4 said:
And his party lost state houses in some of those and nearly all of the suburban districts in 2018.
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Overconfidence will not serve the Dems well. The Trumpers had less reason to come out in 2018 because Trump was not on the ballot. Orange Man could win.
 
The more Republicans realize how awful Trump is, the more they might end up voting for him.
They probably think that Trump will just stick to the current rock-bottom.

But the idea of Dems swooping in and actually getting things right, with a big helping of "we told you so", might be more unbearable to CINOs (conservatives in name only) than keeping up the Trump Lie.
 
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