Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 24

[CapelDodger]

Nope - unemployment will drop like a stone. As America opens up, the jobs will come back and unemployment will reduce by 2/3 or more from current levels.

Jobs will return, largely to people who had them before. They won't confuse them with new jobs. And those that don't get their jobs back - 1/3, or whatever - won't be confused either. People who find their old jobs now have worse pay and conditions will not be happy at all. Meanwhile, social security cuts will hit spending and jobs, while the eviction moratorium has apparently not been extended as advertised by Trump to his golf-club buddies. They won't find out, but other people will, as will all the people they know.

I've covered this extensively in the economics thread - the market is being driven by Robinhood and similar App-based platforms. Small volumes by the ignorant can make a big difference to the sharemarket. 20 million people putting in $20 a week is $400M to invest in shares*, and there aren't enough sellers to kill that off.

Stock markets are pure speculation these days, not about the real economy two days ahead but about the mood of the markets tomorrow. Or, more specifically, the derivates market, because who plays the game without leverage?

Bloomberg found that a lot of sports betting money was being diverted to the sharemarket as well. That's a billion a year on its own.

I'm not at all surprised. Financial speculation and sports betting have a great deal in common.

 

[acbytesla]

How many people do you think know that, or even better, care? The constitution is only sacred when it's the 2nd amendment.

It will matter when none of the EOs will be carried out. Even Republicans are calling it unconstitutional slop.

There is, actually. The 7-day average has gone down by 21% in the past two weeks. I'd say that's past the peak.

I'd say that is manipulation

Nope - unemployment will drop like a stone. As America opens up, the jobs will come back and unemployment will reduce by 2/3 or more from current levels.

Now someone is really hallucinating. Exactly what drugs are you taking? And can I get some?

 

[The Atheist]

The rest of the world is bracing for a second wave, so should the USA. Only it's not really done with the first, and now with schools opening, they'll probably see an increase in cases.

Also, isn't two weeks way too short a time to determine this?

Yes, two weeks is a brief period, but I'm looking at places like Sweden and Italy, where once the peak passes, levels stabilise then fall.

I think it's the summer slowing the rate - people spending more time outside than in alone makes a huge difference.

I could be wrong, but I haven't been wrong about much in the pandemic so far and that's what my current pick of trajectory looks like. Covid's not going away, but people conditioned at seeing 1000+ deaths a day will see a drop to ~400 as a big improvement.

If his head goes on Rushmore, I'm opening an RPG kiosk catering to tourists. For those visitors seeking a high adrenaline challenge, rent-a-zambaruk. I hope the attraction doesn't fade once his pucker is reduced to rubble.

I thought the best response was to give him a spot on the Confederate rock carving.

Now someone is really hallucinating. Exactly what drugs are you taking? And can I get some?

Haha! I don't think they make drugs that good at this stage, although a big hit of E might do it.

I'm just giving you what I see.

As to the unemployment, Capel can see it, and it is that simple.

Jobs will return, largely to people who had them before. They won't confuse them with new jobs. And those that don't get their jobs back - 1/3, or whatever - won't be confused either. People who find their old jobs now have worse pay and conditions will not be happy at all. Meanwhile, social security cuts will hit spending and jobs, while the eviction moratorium has apparently not been extended as advertised by Trump to his golf-club buddies. They won't find out, but other people will, as will all the people they know..

The thing is, those people weren't going to vote for Trump anyway.

All he needs is the same people who voted for him last time to get back aboard and that sort of person will see a 50% drop in unemployment as a victory.

The amount of what can be sold as good news in the next couple of months might be enough to turn the tide.

 

[acbytesla]

Yes, two weeks is a brief period, but I'm looking at places like Sweden and Italy, where once the peak passes, levels stabilise then fall.

I think it's the summer slowing the rate - people spending more time outside than in alone makes a huge difference.

I could be wrong, but I haven't been wrong about much in the pandemic so far and that's what my current pick of trajectory looks like. Covid's not going away, but people conditioned at seeing 1000+ deaths a day will see a drop to ~400 as a big improvement.

You are wong. Nothing supports your theory. It won't happen...at least not for a while.

Haha! I don't think they make drugs that good at this stage, although a big hit of E might do it.

I'm just giving you what I see.

As to the unemployment, Capel can see it, and it is that simple.

Capel's wrong and so are you. Eventually jobs will come back. The problem with the idea they will come back soon is the reality of the US job market. Most of which are in the service sector. This is decimated because the tourism hotel, motel, restaurant and airline industries are shot.

Maybe you can tell the people of Washington state how the 100,000 Airplane manufacturing jobs not to mention the multiplier jobs will come back with airlines going bankrupt and most commercial airliners parked?

 

[CapelDodger]

I could be wrong, but I haven't been wrong about much in the pandemic so far and that's what my current pick of trajectory looks like. Covid's not going away, but people conditioned at seeing 1000+ deaths a day will see a drop to ~400 as a big improvement.

Remarkable, isn't it? But entirely credible.

I thought the best response was to give him a spot on the Confederate rock carving.

Well, Trump is essentially running for the Confederacy.

The thing is, those people weren't going to vote for Trump anyway.

Anything which reinforces their resolve is welcome.

All he needs is the same people who voted for him last time to get back aboard and that sort of person will see a 50% drop in unemployment as a victory.

One thought which helps lull me sleep is that more of those people have died than have been replenished from the bottom end of the demographic.

The amount of what can be sold as good news in the next couple of months might be enough to turn the tide.

That's too horrible to contemplate, so I don't. I'm contemplating what happens when Trump refuses to concede - and I simply cannot picture him ever doing so.

 

[Armitage72]

Almost another routine bunker inspection.

President Donald Trump was abruptly evacuated from the White House briefing room by security on Monday after shots were fired outside the building.
Trump returned to the briefing room minutes later, confirming a shooting.

 

[CapelDodger]

You are wong. Nothing supports your theory. It won't happen...at least not for a while.


Capel's wrong and so are you. Eventually jobs will come back. The problem with the idea they will come back soon is the reality of the US job market.

I didn't suggest they would come back soon : The Atheist did, and I was adressing how that would be perceived by the general population were it true.

Most of which are in the service sector. This is decimated because the tourism hotel, motel, restaurant and airline industries are shot.

Some jobs may come back as leisure industries find ways to adjust, but demand is, of course, critical and there's no way to predict that.

Maybe you can tell the people of Washington state how the 100,000 Airplane manufacturing jobs not to mention the multiplier jobs will come back with airlines going bankrupt and most commercial airliners parked?

So many assumptions have been dumped in a ditch.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump just said the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War.

Maybe one could excuse the "second" world war bit as a slip of the tongue, but to keep insisting it was 1917 and that it ended WWI shows wilful ignorance on something he's certainly been briefed on.

 

[CapelDodger]

Almost another routine bunker inspection.

Trump looked sprightly enough when being evacuated to put Biden's bike-ride in the shade.

 

[Jim_MDP]

Why? I generally have positive opinions of the four presidents and it's pretty cool ..and without it there is very little reason to visit South Dakota or even ever to pull over on the Interstate. 383 miles of blah.

Brah... no.
Mt Rushmore was the least interesting (IMO) of the dozen or so things I checked out along there on my '07 driveabout. And I was actively hitting NPS sites all the way around.
Hell... Reptile World was more impressive.
[emoji1]

 

[Norman Alexander]

Trump just said the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War.

Maybe one could excuse the "second" world war bit as a slip of the tongue, but to keep insisting it was 1917 and that it ended WWI shows wilful ignorance on something he's certainly been briefed on.

It's been grooved into his brain so he will never change it. Like many of the other things he spouts despite being told repeatedly they are false. It's just...easier for his brain to do that.

 

[acbytesla]

I didn't suggest they would come back soon : The Atheist did, and I was adressing how that would be perceived by the general population were it true.

Of course.

Some jobs may come back as leisure industries find ways to adjust, but demand is, of course, critical and there's no way to predict that.

Yes, and we can't. I agree.

So many assumptions have been dumped in a ditch.

Personally, I can't think of a better time to put a million people to work on rebuilding US infrastructure. It's going to be very hard to get the service industry to rehire a fraction of the people laid off. We've been neglecting infrastructure for a long time. We should be able to do this now.

 

[acbytesla]

Trump just said the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War.

Maybe one could excuse the "second" world war bit as a slip of the tongue, but to keep insisting it was 1917 and that it ended WWI shows wilful ignorance on something he's certainly been briefed on.

He's an idiot. No, it did not.

 

[Norman Alexander]

Personally, I can't think of a better time to put a million people to work on rebuilding US infrastructure. It's going to be very hard to get the service industry to rehire a fraction of the people laid off. We've been neglecting infrastructure for a long time. We should be able to do this now.

SOCIALISM!!1!!

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Trump just said the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War.

Maybe one could excuse the "second" world war bit as a slip of the tongue, but to keep insisting it was 1917 and that it ended WWI shows wilful ignorance on something he's certainly been briefed on.

Imagine if it had been Biden making that mistake.

 

[acbytesla]

SOCIALISM!!1!!

So?

 

[Steve]

Trump looked sprightly enough when being evacuated to put Biden's bike-ride in the shade.

Cowardice will do that to a man.

 

[alfaniner]

SOCIALISM!!1!!

So?

cial...

c'mon, you can do it!

 

[pgwenthold]

Imagine if it had been Biden making that mistake.

This is the part that gets me. They have been putting so many eggs in the basket of "Biden isn't mentally capable" while Trump can't say anything coherent.

It's the administration of projection. Apparently the idea is to accuse the other side of having problem X before anyone realizes you do.

 

[Trebuchet]

This isn't what Trump has been presenting it as...quelle surprise. People Republicans are going to be pretty damn mad blaming the Democrats if they never get it.


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wir...rumps-smoke-mirrors-executive-orders-72276426

FTFY