Cont: The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread pt. 2

[catsmate]

It's a link and statement took directly from the cdc website your you're saying cdcCDC is wrong?

Oh look, you're trying to twist words like you tried to twist numbers....

 

[Aridas]

And of course Trump's executive orders don't do anything close to what he says they do. He ordered the treasury to find funds to help with evictions and expects states without money to pay part of the unemployment. Does President Dumb **** not understand what the unemployment rate will look like when all those state and municipal employees get laid off?

Whether Trump understands or not is unclear - and unfortunately not all that meaningful. He simply doesn't care. What he cares about is appearances and creating a "Trump is so great" narrative, both for re-election and personal vanity - and it sure looks like he knows he's incapable of creating that narrative in an honest way, so he doesn't even try to do it that way.

 

[Gavin]

I’m getting allot of replies who no data backing them any way back to the lockdowns

This a interview with Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, a leader of WHO’s the organization’s coronavirus response team, discouraged countries from reimposing lockdowns. They are a “blunt, sheer force instrument” with severe social and economic consequences, she said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...ease-detective-warns-against-return-national/

And Jean Castex, the French prime minister, said the country would never again “impose a lockdown like the one did last March, because we’ve learned… that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous.”
(https://www.france24.com/en/20200708-france-rules-out-total-lockdown-in-case-of-covid-19-surge)

On April 9, Canada’s mortality rate was 2.2 per cent. That number has gone up*5.5 per cent due to the spike in cases in long-term care settings.
Adults over age 60 account for 95 per cent of the country’s COVID-19 deaths.
Overall, Canada’s epidemic slope is bending as the rate of spread slows and total case counts increase slowly.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/april-28-coronavirus-updates-toronto-news

 

[JeanTate]

I’m getting allot of replies who no data backing them any way back to the lockdowns

This a interview with Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, a leader of WHO’s the organization’s coronavirus response team, discouraged countries from reimposing lockdowns. They are a “blunt, sheer force instrument” with severe social and economic consequences, she said.
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se-detective-warns-against-return-national/)”

"The requested URL /global-health/science-and-disease/exclusive-top-disease-detective-warns-against-return-national/)”.html was not found on this server.

Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request."

In any case, what does this have to do with USA Politics?

And Jean Castex, the French prime minister, said the country would never again “impose a lockdown like the one did last March, because we’ve learned… that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous.”
(https://www.france24.com/en/20200708-france-rules-out-total-lockdown-in-case-of-covid-19-surge)

Why is that relevant here?

This thread is in the USA Politics board, and is titled "The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread".

On April 9, Canada’s mortality rate was 2.2 per cent. That number has gone up*5.5 per cent due to the spike in cases in long-term care settings.
Adults over age 60 account for 95 per cent of the country’s COVID-19 deaths.
Overall, Canada’s epidemic slope is bending as the rate of spread slows and total case counts increase slowly.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/april-28-coronavirus-updates-toronto-news

Again, why is this relevant here?

 

[kookbreaker]

I’m getting allot of replies who no data backing them any way back to the lockdowns

This a interview with Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, a leader of WHO’s the organization’s coronavirus response team, discouraged countries from reimposing lockdowns. They are a “blunt, sheer force instrument” with severe social and economic consequences, she said.
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se-detective-warns-against-return-national/)”

The full quote is "“blunt, sheer force instrument” that bought countries time to build the public health infrastructure needed to tackle Covid-19.

And Jean Castex, the French prime minister, said the country would never again “impose a lockdown like the one did last March, because we’ve learned… that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous.”
(https://www.france24.com/en/20200708-france-rules-out-total-lockdown-in-case-of-covid-19-surge)

Total lockdowns are to be avoided if you can, as they kept our medical system from being overwhelmed. Partial lockdowns and local restrictions are still needed to avoid the spread.

On April 9, Canada’s mortality rate was 2.2 per cent. That number has gone up*5.5 per cent due to the spike in cases in long-term care settings.
Adults over age 60 account for 95 per cent of the country’s COVID-19 deaths.
Overall, Canada’s epidemic slope is bending as the rate of spread slows and total case counts increase slowly.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/april-28-coronavirus-updates-toronto-news

Relevance?

 

[Aridas]

The full quote is "“blunt, sheer force instrument” that bought countries time to build the public health infrastructure needed to tackle Covid-19.

For what it's worth, the infrastructure in the US is dramatically better than it was when the lockdowns began - and it'd be great if we could avoid reimposing the lockdowns.

 

[Meadmaker]

I’m getting allot of replies who no data backing them any way back to the lockdowns

This a interview with Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, a leader of WHO’s the organization’s coronavirus response team, discouraged countries from reimposing lockdowns. They are a “blunt, sheer force instrument” with severe social and economic consequences, she said.
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se-detective-warns-against-return-national/)”

And Jean Castex, the French prime minister, said the country would never again “impose a lockdown like the one did last March, because we’ve learned… that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous.”
(https://www.france24.com/en/20200708-france-rules-out-total-lockdown-in-case-of-covid-19-surge)

On April 9, Canada’s mortality rate was 2.2 per cent. That number has gone up*5.5 per cent due to the spike in cases in long-term care settings.
Adults over age 60 account for 95 per cent of the country’s COVID-19 deaths.
Overall, Canada’s epidemic slope is bending as the rate of spread slows and total case counts increase slowly.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/april-28-coronavirus-updates-toronto-news

Dr. Fauci said in an interview, I think Friday but not sure, that he doesn't want total lockdowns, either. He praised Arizona's response when their cases started rising, and basically said the following practices worked:

1. Masks
2. Social distancing
3. Hand washing
4. Be outside a lot
5. Avoid crowds.
6. Stay out of bars.

There's nothing in there that would be a death blow to the economy. It's not good for movie theaters, bars, or sports stadiums, but it isn't a death knell of the economy the way resumption of total lockdown would be.

It also makes school reopening questionable.

Wouldn't it be cool if there was like a Presidential Commission or something that could evaluate these things and present findings in a coherent fashion? With dissenting opinions if those came from knowledgeable sources? That would be awesome. Pity we don't have that.

 

[JeanTate]

Dr. Fauci said in an interview, I think Friday but not sure, that he doesn't want total lockdowns, either. He praised Arizona's response when their cases started rising, and basically said the following practices worked:

1. Masks 2. Social distancing 3. Hand washing 4. Be outside a lot 5. Avoid crowds. 6. Stay out of bars.
There's nothing in there that would be a death blow to the economy. It's not good for movie theaters, bars, or sports stadiums, but it isn't a death knell of the economy the way resumption of total lockdown would be.

It also makes school reopening questionable.

Wouldn't it be cool if there was like a Presidential Commission or something that could evaluate these things and present findings in a coherent fashion? With dissenting opinions if those came from knowledgeable sources? That would be awesome. Pity we don't have that.

Nothing about contact tracing?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Full nationwide lockdowns should be uneccesary if new case rates are low enough for efforts to contact trace and isolate to contain. Since we squandered our time of limited, patchwork lockdowns we have achieved neither prerequisite for the totally valid advice given to countries that weren't spectacularly stupid which was quote-mined and taken out of context anyways.

It's like the kid in school who fell asleep and is 3 pages behind shouting at the whole class that they aren't making any sense.

Maybe global health agencies aren't giving advice appropriate to the situation in the U.S. out of respect for the fact we don't care to listen to it anyways.

 

[Meadmaker]

Nothing about contact tracing?

Good question. I didn't see it in the article, but the article was just a quick read.

Again, it's unfortunate that we have to rely on bits and pieces, interviews, etc. The CDC is the natural place to expect have more information, and I'm sure they do, but that doesn't make a good headline, and Trump himself doesn't play them up. Communication matters, and Trump and friends aren't doing it well.

 

[kookbreaker]

Nothing about contact tracing?

Contact tracing is not something individuals should be doing to help prevent spread. It is something for the appropriate experts to work on. It doesn't really belong on that list.

 

[Gavin]

"The requested URL /global-health/science-and-disease/exclusive-top-disease-detective-warns-against-return-national/)”.html was not found on this server.

Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request."

In any case, what does this have to do with USA Politics?


Why is that relevant here?

This thread is in the USA Politics board, and is titled "The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread".


Again, why is this relevant here?

They are in reference to the lockdowns conducted in US

 

[Roger Ramjets]

There's nothing in there that would be a death blow to the economy. It's not good for movie theaters, bars, or sports stadiums,

You are contradicting yourself. You see, anything that isn't 'good' for the economy (including those essential services you listed) is a death blow. It really is that fragile.

OTOH, more than 200,000 dead and 6 million infected (with ~1 million suffering long-term health issues) has no effect at all.

But that was with (limited, patchwork, half-hearted) lockdowns. Just imagine how much 'better' the economy would be now if we hadn't done any!

 

[newyorkguy]

There were four major influenza pandemics in the twentieth century, there'll be another.

What were they? Can you name them?

The above is a response to a response to a post I wrote a week ago. But the context of my post is getting lost. I was referring to people who think the schools should reopen no matter what because it is damaging to the kids to keep them out of school. I began by stating I could see both sides.

But my point was, we need to get this pandemic under control. If we have to modify school attendance for a while, so be it. The previous pandemics -- with the exception of the second wave of the 1918–19 influenza pandemic -- did not involve putting extensive and widespread restrictions on children attending classes in a normal way. The one a poster immediately cited -- HIV -- certainly had no impact on public schools. I have family whose kids are suffering through this. I understand there have been pandemics previously and doubtless there will be more in the future. But as of right now, this is something -- extensive school restrictions -- that have happened very rarely. In the past, I doubt very much whether the closings were politicized to the degree this has been. Mainly because we are absolutely cursed to have this happen at a time we have a lunatic in the White House with a merry band of self-destructive followers.

This is from a website named Health Affairs:

Nine decades before our current encounter with a novel strain of influenza virus, the deadly second wave of the 1918–19 influenza pandemic struck the United States. In response, most urban communities closed K–12 public schools for an extended period of time, in some locations for as long as fifteen weeks. Typically, the order to close schools came late in the epidemic curves of cities—weeks if not days after deaths from influenza and pneumonia mounted. School closure orders almost always were issued in concert with additional nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as quarantine, isolation, bans on public gatherings, staggered business hours, and orders to use facemasks.

The U.S. historical record demonstrates that on multiple occasions, when faced with a contagious crisis that affects children, school dismissal and voluntary absenteeism are common responses. Past experiences also reveal that school dismissal tends to be applied by a particular community as a reaction, if not a demand, only after a contagious disease has spread through a community and not as a preemptive public health measure. Health Affairs link

 

[Meadmaker]

You are contradicting yourself. You see, anything that isn't 'good' for the economy (including those essential services you listed) is a death blow. It really is that fragile.

OTOH, more than 200,000 dead and 6 million infected (with ~1 million suffering long-term health issues) has no effect at all.

But that was with (limited, patchwork, half-hearted) lockdowns. Just imagine how much 'better' the economy would be now if we hadn't done any!

Bizarre, isn't it?

One of the things that is awesome about living in our modern world is that, in reality, we have a whole lot of economic cushion. Things don't suck all that bad even if we lose a significant fraction of our economy. If it wasn't for the fact that our economy is so completely debt-financed, we could probably just stop the non-agricultural economy for a long time and we would hardly know the difference.

 

[Giordano]

Full nationwide lockdowns should be uneccesary if new case rates are low enough for efforts to contact trace and isolate to contain. Since we squandered our time of limited, patchwork lockdowns we have achieved neither prerequisite for the totally valid advice given to countries that weren't spectacularly stupid which was quote-mined and taken out of context anyways.

It's like the kid in school who fell asleep and is 3 pages behind shouting at the whole class that they aren't making any sense.

Maybe global health agencies aren't giving advice appropriate to the situation in the U.S. out of respect for the fact we don't care to listen to it anyways.

Exactly. I don’t understand why there remains much in question as to handle this epidemic. We have examples of countries who did it correctly from the beginning, examples of countries who began screwing up but then caught on, examples of countries that started out well and then screwed up, and examples of countries who still haven’t done it right. We even have examples of the last three among the states in the USA. All experiments in essence that proved the correct responses verses the incorrect ones.

It is not rocket science. Begin by fairly rigorous restrictions (“lockdowns”) and enforced social distancing, masks, etc. Have a well organized government lead response that provides solid information at multiple levels, based on scientific recommendations by the majority of experts, without one part of government seeking to undercut this scientific and medical consensus for political reasons. Encourage compliance with the rules and recommendations rather than defiance. Encourage people to view fighting the epidemic as patriotic and altruistic rather than as some crazy violation of their freedoms. Invest heavy in obtaining adequate PPEs and medical resources.

Then as the epidemic flattens and drops significantly one cautiously and intelligently eases up the restrictions while constantly reminding people that the danger is still very much there and they need to behave appropriately, not as if someone declared a toga party. Test extensively to identify new outbreaks in the bud. Contact trace and do selective quarantines on that basis. Open up more as the data allows.

Not surprisingly this is also the best economic approach as well. The countries who followed these rules are now much further toward restoring their economies than those , such as the USA, that applied these rules in a half-hearted, hit and miss fashion and that also reopened prematurely and now have to start again.

Much of this could be predicted from simple epidemiology theory, but in fact we also have the real life examples/experiments. There really is not much left to discuss except for those whose devotion to political causes exceeds their devotion to reality.

 

[Aridas]

Exactly. I don’t understand why there remains much in question as to handle this epidemic.

I think that it's worth likening to, for example, the tobacco industry's long campaign of denial. And the fossil fuel industries long campaign of denial.

There hasn't been any real doubt in the general science for a long time. There have just been a lot of people that put personal/corporate profits over the public well-being as a way of life and, as part of that, they tend to fund, influence, and otherwise support measures to sow doubt and shape public opinion away from actually properly dealing with the problems. For COVID, as something that's emerging, they've just used the infrastructure that they already built up.

 

[Meadmaker]

Here is something I read on the CDC guidelines sight today:

Do NOT use a mask meant for a healthcare worker. Currently, surgical masks and N95 respirators are critical supplies that should be reserved for healthcare workers and other first responders.

Makes sense, except......NO IT DOESN"T MAKE ANY SENSE AT ALL!!!!!

On January 31, Donald Trump first took action related to Covid 19. That was the date of his China travel restrictions. As of that date, there is no possibility that the administration was unaware of the pending threat. He took action. Therefore he knew.

N-95 masks provide better protection than the cloth masks we are all wearing these days. The cloth masks mostly protect others. I want everyone to wear them, and it's really important to wear them, but if you want better protection, an N95 mask would be better. However, six months, six friggin' months, after the administration became aware of the problem, N95 masks are still "critical supplies".

What the Hell? Is it really impossible that the industrial might of the US could not have been harnessed to provide better PPE? Is there some critical material shortage that would have made mass production of N95 masks impossible? I'm baffled.

Special note to Rocky: ORANGE MAN BAD. Seriously. He's bad. He's inept. He's incompetent. He lies. He is really bad, and he should not be President of the United States.

 

[Modified]

N-95 masks provide better protection than the cloth masks we are all wearing these days. The cloth masks mostly protect others. I want everyone to wear them, and it's really important to wear them, but if you want better protection, an N95 mask would be better. However, six months, six friggin' months, after the administration became aware of the problem, N95 masks are still "critical supplies".

What the Hell? Is it really impossible that the industrial might of the US could not have been harnessed to provide better PPE? Is there some critical material shortage that would have made mass production of N95 masks impossible? I'm baffled.

It may be that sourcing the material is difficult, but surely that could have been overcome with enough effort and money. About two months in, China had ample supply of N95 (KN95) masks, and they use a lot more per person than the US ever would.

 

[Mader Levap]

The unique U.S failure to control the virus
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/us/coronavirus-us.html

When it comes to the virus, the United States has come to resemble not the wealthy and powerful countries to which it is often compared but instead far poorer countries, like Brazil, Peru and South Africa, or those with large migrant populations, like Bahrain and Oman.

In no other high-income country — and in only a few countries, period — have political leaders departed from expert advice as frequently and significantly as the Trump administration. President Trump has said the virus was not serious; predicted it would disappear; spent weeks questioning the need for masks; encouraged states to reopen even with large and growing caseloads; and promoted medical disinformation.

Already, the American death toll is of a different order of magnitude than in most other countries. With only 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States has accounted for 22 percent of coronavirus deaths. Canada, a rich country that neighbors the United States, has a per capita death rate about half as large. And these gaps may worsen in coming weeks, given the lag between new cases and deaths.

In the United States, however, masks did not become a fashion symbol. They became a political symbol. (...) A March survey found that partisanship was the biggest predictor of whether Americans regularly wore masks — bigger than their age or whether they lived in a region with a high number of virus cases. In many of the places where people adopted a hostile view of masks, including Texas and the Southeast, the number of virus cases began to soar this spring.

In large parts of the United States, officials chose to reopen before medical experts thought it wise, in an attempt to put people back to work and spark the economy. Instead, the United States sparked a huge new virus outbreak — and the economy did not seem to benefit.

New York — both the city and the state — offers a useful case study. Like much of Europe, New York responded too slowly to the first wave of the virus.(...)By late March, however, New York’s leaders understood the threat, and they reversed course.(...)The lockdowns and the consistent messages had a big effect. By June, New York and surrounding states had some of the lowest rates of virus spread in the country. Across much of the Southeast, Southwest and West Coast, on the other hand, the pandemic was raging.

“This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

TL;DR: Orange man bad.