Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

Now you know more then a Swedish doctor and there isn’t a rising number of new cases nowhere can find new cases only showing up in coastal areas

I Finland upptäcktes i snitt 3-4 fall om dagen i mitten av juli, men nu ligger snittet på 14-15 (sju dagars rullande medelvärde). I Norge är motsvarande tal 7 och 37, i Danmark 15 och 83.
I Sverige går ökningen långsammare, men från en högre nivå: Från runt 190 fall/dag i slutet av juli till runt 270 den senaste veckan (även detta sju dagars rullande medelvärde).
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Aug. 8, 2020 – 01:49)

In Finland, on average 3-4 cases a day were found in mid-July, but now the average is 14-15 (seven days rolling average). In Norway, the numbers are 7 and 37, in Denmark 15 and 83. In Sweden, the increase is slower, but beginning at a higher level: From about 190 cases a day by the end of July to about 270 the most recent week (this is also a rolling average).
Latest news about the coronavirus

One of the many problems with the Swedish press briefings is that Anders Tegnell always emphasizes rising numbers abroad and the measures taken against the renewed spread of the virus. If he mentions that the Swedish numbers are rising, he will stress that the rise is slower but he won't mention that the rate of infection is actually much higher in Sweden than in the neighboring countries, leaving Swedes with the impression that Sweden is doing much better than everybody else even though nothing could be further from the truth - in particular when you consider that Sweden still doesn't seem to be particularly interested in ramping up testing for the virus but would rather focus on testing for antibodies to give the impression that Sweden's 'herd immunity' is working.

Norway has put a stop to travelers from Scania for good reason, and I wish that Denmark would do the same.

 

[dann]

Actually more than 94% of 80 years olds make it to 81 if not infected with Covid-19. On average they live 6 to 7 more years, even in Sweden and even based on older statistics not reflecting more recent medical progress:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE...ref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub 0www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

If you were 30 years old for example, and were told that you had a fatal disease that will kill you immediately, but there was a treatment that could buy you on average another 6 to 7 years, would you not take the treatment? Why are you so disparaging of the right of 80 year olds to their extra 6 to 7 years by being protected from covid infection?

A similar thing happens when co-morbidities like hypertension are mentioned in the context of Covid-19 deaths. People tend to forget this fact:

Nearly half of adults in the United States (108 million, or 45%) have hypertension (...) Only about 1 in 4 adults (24%) with hypertension have their condition under control.
Facts About Hypertension in the United States (CDC)

And just to make sure that everybody understands this: When they are talking about, "nearly half of adults", they aren't talking about people in their eighties only. They are talking about everybody older than 20. People in their twenties don't usually have hypertension, but it gets more and more common as people age.
So it is based on ignorance when people comfort themselves with the idea that the majority of people who die from Covid-19 have co-morbidities and only a small minority don't.

Another co-morbidity that's frequently mentioned is diabetes:

• 34.2 million people of all ages—or 10.5% of the US population—had diabetes.
• 34.1 million adults aged 18 years or older—or 13.0% of all US adults—had diabetes (Table 1a; Table 1b).
• 7.3 million adults aged 18 years or older who met laboratory criteria for diabetes were not aware of or did not report having diabetes (undiagnosed diabetes, Table 1b). This number represents 2.8% of all US adults (Table 1a) and 21.4% of all US adults with diabetes.
• The percentage of adults with diabetes increased with age, reaching 26.8% among those aged 65 years or older (Table 1a).
National Diabetes Statistics Report, 2020 (CDC)

 

[dann]

Meanwhile in Belarus:

Since you first mentioned Belarus, the country has been working its way slowly up the list of per-capita deaths, overtaking first Iceland, then Norway and very recently Finland.

 

[dann]

169 bekræftet smittet med coronavirus det seneste døgn (DR.dk, Aug. 8, 2020)
169 confirmed cases in the last 24 hours - 79 of them in Aarhus

Aarhusianerne står i lange køer for at blive coronatestet (DR.dk, Aug. 8, 2020)
People in Aarhus standing in long lines to get tested

Stort set alle apoteker i Aarhus melder om udsolgt af mundbind (DR.dk, Aug. 8, 2020)
Almost all pharmacies in Aarhus have sold out face masks

Another pharmacy, this time in Copenhagen:
Apotek påstod, at mundspray 'deaktiverer covid-19': Nu advarer Lægemiddelstyrelsen mod 'mirakelkur' (DR.dk, Aug. 8, 2020)
Pharmacy claimed that mouth spray ’deactivates Covid-19’: Now the Health Agency warns against ’miracle cure’ - They claimed that it could deactivate the virus ”98,3 procent”. Don’t tell Trump about this!!!

The other local flare up, centered at the Danish Crown slaughterhouse, is also stil ongoing:
22 nye smittetilfælde - Danish Crown i Ringsted lukker i en uge (DR.dk, Aug. 8, 2020)
22 new cases – Danish Crown locks down for a week


Saturday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 8, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 570 (5,763) 41* 34 *356 according to SVT.se.
Denmark: 106 (617) 136 2
Finland: 60 (331) 14 0
Norway: 47 (256) 1* 2 *83 according to direkte.vg.no
Iceland: 29 (10) 3 1
Iceland has 112 active cases, Faroe Islands 102, New Zealand 23.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Since you first mentioned Belarus, the country has been working its way slowly up the list of per-capita deaths, overtaking first Iceland, then Norway and very recently Finland.

But it has with no lockdown at all yet to overtake Israel (insane lockdown) and Bulgaria (no idea) and is tied with Hungary (accused of totalitarian measures by the usual suspects). On place 63 of a table that is too stupid to count ties but has Denmark on 45 just behind Germany on 44.

 

[Gavin]

You don't know what you are talking about, obviously: People in Swedish nursing homes were infected to the extent that they were, i.e. 70% of 5.763 deaths, because Sweden went for 'flattening the curve' instead of hammering the virus down. Sweden had its own stupid way of allegedly trying to protect the elderly: often no proper PPE in care homes, insufficient education of staff, stupid advice from the government and Tegnell (Stay home if you have symptoms!), which all means that a lot of staff were infected and then transmitted the virus to residents at nursing homes. They did so to the extent that they did because the level of infections in Sweden was as high as it was.
That other Nordic countries didn't have a similar number of old people die wasn't primarily due to the different routines in their care strategies. It was because the contagion in general wasn't as high as in Sweden.
It had everything to do with the Swedish 'flattening the curve' strategy!

They had 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent
And flattened the curve with out ever having a lockdown there is no way around it!

 

[dann]

Yes, so far Sweden has had 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people.
The other Nordic countries have had 1,214 deaths out of 17 million people.

Sweden has flattened the curve without a lockdown, which took it a couple of months longer than the other Nordic countries, it left people to die without any kind of Covid-19 treatment, i.e. with palliative care only, practiced long-distance triage, while bragging about empty ICU units. In other words, Sweden let people die to maintain the illusion of a health-care system that wasn't overwhelmed.

The other Nordic countries hammered down virus fast with a lockdown (version: light), thus saving 10,000 lives and an awful lot of pain, disability and suffering - sometimes long-term.
Not to mention that they managed to make (not only) the elderly population feel relatively safe and not completely abandoned and left to their own devices.

And even in the current situation, Sweden has a higher death toll and number of new infections than the other Nordic countries.

There is no way around it!

 

[Pixel42]

They had 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent

You keep quoting this number like it means something, but of course on its own it means nothing at all. You need to compare it with the same figure in countries which did lockdown. So let's do that. The countries that surround Sweden are Norway, Finland and Denmark, so let's use them. The death figures are taken from this global Covid-19 tracker, and the population figures from wikipedia.

Sweden: 5763 deaths out of a population of 10,343,403. That's 0.05572%
Norway: 256 deaths out of a population of 5,432,580. That's 0.00471%
Finland: 331 deaths out of a population of 5,528,737. That's 0.00599%
Denmark: 617 deaths out of a population of 5,824,857. That's 0.01059%

The average death rate of Sweden's bordering countries is 0.0071%

If Sweden had achieved that, its number of deaths would be just 734.

So no, Sweden did not "flatten the curve". Their curve's peak was much, much higher than it would have been if it had instituted a lockdown.

Sweden's "no lockdown" policy actually resulted in the unnecessary deaths of 5029 of its citizens.

 

[dann]

But it has with no lockdown at all yet to overtake Israel (insane lockdown) and Bulgaria (no idea) and is tied with Hungary (accused of totalitarian measures by the usual suspects). On place 63 of a table that is too stupid to count ties but has Denmark on 45 just behind Germany on 44.

And Cuba at #133 with 88 deaths, 8 per million, with a lockdown.

So tell us about the Belarusian strategy. I have had difficulties finding anything reliable. Tass writes that

Patients with positive coronavirus tests but having no symptoms of the disease will not be included into the official statistics.
Number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Belarus exceeding 64,600 (Tass, July 10, 2020)

But I don't know if Tass is to be trusted on this.

When I read another description of Belarus's strategy, it seems to be the proof positive that Sweden is looking for (i.e. denying) that face masks are working because a description of the Belarusian strategy makes it look like the Swedish strategy + masks:

Social distancing, wearing masks, and keeping the elderly at home are now official recommendations. Yet, there is no quarantine, except for infected individuals and their immediate contacts; public transportation continues to bring people to their workplaces; and college students are allowed but not obligated to use distance learning. Restaurants are open but with tables farther apart than before.
According to Health Minister Vladimir Karanik, there are two strategies for fighting pandemics: mitigation and containment. As of now, only two countries in Europe, Sweden and Belarus, adhere to the former, all the rest follow the latter.
Belarus Fights COVID-19 and an Information War (Jamestown Foundation, April 14, 2020)

However, if that is actually true, I wonder why Japan at #130, another mask-wearing country, has only 8 deaths per million, when Belarus has 62.

When you compare Belarus to Germany and Denmark, you should take into account when the virus was ravaging the two countries, and when it had been hammered down. I.e. I don't think many Belarusians go skiing in the Alps in February-March, which is one of the things they probably have in common with the Cubans and the Japanese.

 

[dann]

From Norway, funny argument for aerosol transmission:

–Resultatene tyder på at dråpesmitte ikke er den eneste overføringsmekanismen, og at aerosoloverføring er mulig. Dette har blitt foreslått i andre studier, men vår måte å bekrefte dette på er ny, sier professor Evan Kontopantelis ved University of Manchester.
Doblet sjanse for korona-smitte hvis du er over 1,82 meter høy (University in Agder, Aug. 6, 2020)

The results indicate that infection by drops isn't the only way of transmission, and that aerosol transmission is possible. Other studies have suggested this, but our way of confirming it is new, says professor Evan Kontopantelis at the University of Manchester.
Your risk of getting infected with corona is doubled if you are taller than 1.82 m

 

[Childlike Empress]

"Recommendation" is not what "the West" is trying to enforce (of course it is unenforcable and they just get the finger from me). Lukashenko has declared "corona" a neurosis that is not happening in his country. And despite over 10% of the population being tested, only a handful of people have died. There won't be any "died with a positive PCR test while being hit by a bus" counts like in our countries.

Japan, where people tend to wear masks for different reasons, has not engaged in any insane "lockdowns" as well.

Germany hasn't been "ravaged" by any virus, and neighter has Denmark.These countries have been ravaged by actions enforced by corrupt politicians on behalf of international capital.

 

[Childlike Empress]

You keep quoting this number like it means something, but of course on its own it means nothing at all. You need to compare it with the same figure in countries which did lockdown. So let's do that. The countries that surround Sweden are Norway, Finland and Denmark, so let's use them. The death figures are taken from this global Covid-19 tracker, and the population figures from wikipedia.

Sweden: 5763 deaths out of a population of 10,343,403. That's 0.05572%
Norway: 256 deaths out of a population of 5,432,580. That's 0.00471%
Finland: 331 deaths out of a population of 5,528,737. That's 0.00599%
Denmark: 617 deaths out of a population of 5,824,857. That's 0.01059%

The average death rate of Sweden's bordering countries is 0.0071%

If Sweden had achieved that, its number of deaths would be just 734.

So no, Sweden did not "flatten the curve". Their curve's peak was much, much higher than it would have been if it had instituted a lockdown.

Sweden's "no lockdown" policy actually resulted in the unnecessary deaths of 5029 of its citizens.

The bizarre thing here is that you were brainwashed into thinking that it is worth to "lock down" a whole allegedly free society to get the death rate of a "killer virus" from 0.05572% to 0.0071%, using your numbers. LOL!

 

[Pixel42]

The bizarre thing here is that you were brainwashed into thinking that it is worth to "lock down" a whole allegedly free society to get the death rate of a "killer virus" from 0.05572% to 0.0071%, using your numbers. LOL!

In my country that's a difference of 33,006 deaths, which IMO would be well worth the inconvenience. The sad thing is the lockdown here was so bungled it's not going to be achieved.

 

[llwyd]

The bizarre thing here is that you were brainwashed into thinking that it is worth to "lock down" a whole allegedly free society to get the death rate of a "killer virus" from 0.05572% to 0.0071%, using your numbers. LOL!

Well, the main point at least in Finland has been to protect our health care system - if the virus is unchekced the system could easily collapse. And of course there are now plentiful reports and studies that there can be really severe and longlasting syndroms even if the virus doesn't kill you. Of course countries have different cultures and histories, in Russia, as a random comparison, lifes of the ordinary citizens are probably pretty cheap (though this wave of pneumonia related deaths there is rather worrying but luckily they have been spared the worst of covid). But Sweden is a mystery - usually it's the most humane of nations but now it has simply let people die in far greater numbers than its nearest neighbours. Go figure.

 

[Klimax]

They had 5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent
And flattened the curve with out ever having a lockdown there is no way around it!

Still more than ten times of Czech Republic...

 

[dann]

"Recommendation" is not what "the West" is trying to enforce (of course it is unenforcable and they just get the finger from me).

I have no idea what "the West" is trying to enforce according to you. If you mean that some Westerne countries are trying to hammer down the virus, then I'm all for it, but it doesn't seem to be a goal the the countries of "the West" share. Countries like Sweden and the USA don't seem to care at all. Countries like Germany and Denmark started too late to avoid the initial contamination brought into the countries from returning ski tourists, and they haven't sufficiently protected workers, in particular those on public transport and in meat-packing plants.

Lukashenko has declared "corona" a neurosis that is not happening in his country.

Lukashenko appears to be in need of psychiatric care. He might as well declare flu a psychosis and measles a craze.

And despite over 10% of the population being tested, only a handful of people have died.

585 deaths, so far, and rising. Belarus had the chance to wipe out the disease when the pandemic started. When you first mentioned Belarus, I jotted down their death toll. Total cases: 151, deaths per million: 16. At that point, Cuba's numbers were 74 and 7 (now 87 and 8 - and unlike Belarus, Cuba's economy depends very much on tourism). Belarus was fortunate enough not to have a significant number of deaths before spring and could have hammered the virus down with little effort. Now, it will see the rise happening when the weather gets cold and it still has widespread infections in the community because its leader considers it to be "a neurosis that is not happening in his country."

There won't be any "died with a positive PCR test while being hit by a bus" counts like in our countries.

You do know why this is the favorite illustration among anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers and other conspiracy nuts in denial of reality, don't you?! Have you heard of any actual cases like that? Do you think that cases like that would significantly contribute to the statistics of Covid-19 deaths?

Japan, where people tend to wear masks for different reasons, has not engaged in any insane "lockdowns" as well.

No, Japan is a very illustrative example of how useful masks are. I don't know what you mean by "for different reasons." Are you thinking of Noh?

Germany hasn't been "ravaged" by any virus, and neighter has Denmark.These countries have been ravaged by actions enforced by corrupt politicians on behalf of international capital.

No, we have affected comparatively little by the virus, but still more than enough. We were spared the worst in spite of the push from Conservative politicians and CEOs:
Asger Aamund: Mette Frederiksen har bragt os fra demokrati til DDR på fire uger (Berlingske, April 16, 2020)
Asger Aaamund: Mette Frederiksen took us from democracy to the GDR in four weeks

It's too bad that a small minority of left-wing Germans have joined the protests of right-wing libertarians and conspiracy nuts.

 

[dann]

The bizarre thing here is that you were brainwashed into thinking that it is worth to "lock down" a whole allegedly free society to get the death rate of a "killer virus" from 0.05572% to 0.0071%, using your numbers. LOL!

How does this brainwashing work, exactly? I was in favor of stricter measures as soon as I heard about the outbreak in the Alps and started to take my own preacautions, i.e. give up salsa dancing, one week before the Danish version of lockdown, which never really inconvenienced me in any way.

 

[dann]

Well, the main point at least in Finland has been to protect our health care system - if the virus is unchecked the system could easily collapse.

I disagree. At the beginning of the pandemic, that may have been the intention, but the strategy soon changed in the Nordic countries, except for Sweden. The purpose now seems to be to 'dance' with the virus, i.e. to follow the TeTrIs strategy and clamp down on all flare ups until a vaccine is available.

 

[Rolfe]

I believe England was counting people who died at any time following a positive test as confirmed coronavirus cases. At the time this probably didn't make a lot of difference as the number of people who would have made a full recovery from coronavirus then died of an unrelated cause within three or four months wasn't going to trouble the scorer. However I believe they've realised this could distort the figures going forward and they've now changed it.

In contrast Scotland has always had "a positive test within the 30 days prior to death" as a criterion for a confirmed case. People who linger on more than 30 days after testing positive, before dying, are moved to the "suspected" category, even if they've been critically ill in intensive care with coronavirus symptoms for all of that time.

Who's right? You can make a case both ways. Maybe 30 days is too short, maybe it should be 45 days. Or 60 days. Maybe there should be a requirement for the doctors to certify that death was associated with clinical coronavirus disease. I don't know. What I do know is that it's not making an enormous difference. Although if you count the "suspected" cases, Scotland is still having about one death per day even though we haven't had any confirmed cases for three weeks. At least some of these (possibly all) are inevitably going to be real coronavirus deaths, and you only have to look at the excess deaths statistics to realise that.

 

[dann]

I have mentioned before that the first registered coronavirus death in Denmark was established post mortem. It was a patient who was hospitalized and apparently died from a coronary heart disease. At first, it seemed excessive to label it a Covid-19 death, but after it has been established that coronavirus leads to blood clotting, it seems much more reasonable to do so.
The people who might die for whatever reason within a month or two without Covid-19 are not a segment of the population that is likely to die in a truck accident or mountain climbing ...
An insignificant number of people with Covid-19 will die the way George Floyd did. (I hope his killer got infected, but since it wasn't indoors, that's not very likely.)