Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Gavin]

Yes, to all of that, but what is your point?
Scania is open, and Scania (1,4 million) had 11 Covid-19 deaths in the last two weeks, which is more than (almost twice as much as) the other four Nordic countries (16 million) combined.
That Denmark and Germany decided to open up for Swedish tourists was not a good idea, in my opinion, but they did.

And speaking of schools: Not even the teachers unions of Sweden seem to take the concerns of their own members seriously. I don't consider that to be a recommendation of the Swedish strategy:

Wow 11 in 2 weeks they Are dropping like flies lol
As he said in the article 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

 

[dann]

From a Swedish ER doctor.

Coven hit Stockholm like a storm in mid-March. One day I was seeing people with appendicitis and kidney stones, the usual things you see in the emergency room. The next day all those patients were gone and the only thing coming in to the hospital was covid. Practically everyone who was tested had covid, regardless of what the presenting symtom was. People came in with a nose bleed and they had covid. They came in with stomach pain and they had covid.
Then, after a few months, all the covid patients disappeared. It is now four months since the start of the pandemic, and I haven’t seen a single covid patient in over a month. When I do test someone because they have a cough or a fever, the test invariably comes back negative. At the peak three months back, a hundred people were dying a day of covid in Sweden, a country with a population of ten million. We are now down to around five people dying per day in the whole country, and that number continues to drop. Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that means virtually no-one is getting infected any more. If we assume around 0.5 percent of those infected die (which I think is very generous, more on that later), then that means that three weeks back 1,000 people were getting infected per day in the whole country, which works out to a daily risk per person of getting infected of 1 in 10,000, which is miniscule. And remember, the risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected. And that was three weeks ago. Basically, covid is in all practical senses over and done with in Sweden. After four months.
In total covid has killed under 6,000 people in a country of ten million. A country with an annual death rate of around 100,000 people. Considering that 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

Considering that this guy is a doctor, he ought to know better:

Sebastian Rushworth: "Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that means virtually no-one is getting infected any more. ... Considering that most people in Sweden are leading their lives normally now, not socially distancing, not wearing masks, there should still be high rates of infection. ... But covid is over in Sweden.

SVT.se: "Totalt har 82 323 personer har bekräftats smittade. Det är 356 fler än i går."

Sebastian Rushworth: "if (!) we’ve reached a point where there is hardly any active infection going on any more in Sweden in spite of the fact that there is barely any social distancing happening then that means at least 50% of the population has been infected already and have developed immunity, which is five million people."

Isn't it amazing that we can hear reports of 17 new infections at a party with 21 participants when there's "hardly any active infection going on anymore"? Isn't it amazing that an actual MD working in Stockholm isn't aware that Stockholm was the hardest hit area and may (it's hard to know) have had an infection rate 50% of the population, but that this doesn't mean that the rest of the county has had a similar rate of infections? There is a reason why the rising number of new cases in Sweden are to be found in coastal areas, i.e. where city dwellers are now vacationing and spreading the infection.
Apart from that, SB appears to be a Tegnell clone, repeating all the lies that Swedes have been told from day one and still want to believe because they are as infatuated with Tegnell as Republicans are with Trump.

 

[Rolfe]

During March, April and May Scotland had as many deaths as Sweden. We're not proud of this and it's considered a serious failure (becaise of the political decision to do whatever England did and not think for ourselves, but that's beside the point).

But now, we're opening up and hey presto some idiot (or idiots) goes on a pub crawl and suddenly cases are spiking again just in that area. I think the difference is that we're actually reporting it. I've complained time and time again about the Scottlsh government's tendency to secrecy, but at least they tell us when there's a cluster and how many cases and where the premises are. Sounds as if Sweden just isn't doing that.

 

[Gavin]

Considering that this guy is a doctor, he ought to know better:

Sebastian Rushworth: "Since people generally die around three weeks after infection, that means virtually no-one is getting infected any more. ... Considering that most people in Sweden are leading their lives normally now, not socially distancing, not wearing masks, there should still be high rates of infection. ... But covid is over in Sweden.

SVT.se: "Totalt har 82 323 personer har bekräftats smittade. Det är 356 fler än i går."

Sebastian Rushworth: "if (!) we’ve reached a point where there is hardly any active infection going on any more in Sweden in spite of the fact that there is barely any social distancing happening then that means at least 50% of the population has been infected already and have developed immunity, which is five million people."

Isn't it amazing that we can hear reports of 17 new infections at a party with 21 participants when there's "hardly any active infection going on anymore"? Isn't it amazing that an actual MD working in Stockholm isn't aware that Stockholm was the hardest hit area and may (it's hard to know) have had an infection rate 50% of the population, but that this doesn't mean that the rest of the county has had a similar rate of infections? There is a reason why the rising number of new cases in Sweden are to be found in coastal areas, i.e. where city dwellers are now vacationing and spreading the infection.
Apart from that, SB appears to be a Tegnell clone, repeating all the lies that Swedes have been told from day one and still want to believe because they are as infatuated with Tegnell as Republicans are with Trump.

Now you know more then a Swedish doctor and there isn’t a rising number of new cases nowhere can find new cases only showing up in coastal areas
Again as he said in the article 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.
You repeating the same arguments with out addressing any of the points I have made

 

[dann]

Wow 11 in 2 weeks they Are dropping like flies lol
As he said in the article 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

Not for the people who die unnecessarily, whatever their age may be, and in Sweden that amounts to more people younger than 70 dying from the virus than the combined coronavirus deaths of all ages in Denmark: Number of coronavirus deaths in Sweden by age groups (Statista.com)

He also seems to forget the long-term effects for survivors, another thing that Covid-19 doesn't seem to have in common with the flu to this extent. A Swedish support group for långtidssjuka has almost 12,000 members.

 

[dann]

Now you know more then a Swedish doctor and there isn’t a rising number of new cases nowhere can find new cases only showing up in coastal areas

Yes, if a Swedish doctor is unable to see that he can't base the number of infections in Sweden on his own experience with infections in one of the hardest hit areas in Sweden, Stockholm, then I seem to know something he doesn't.
Your English is a little hard to understand: Are you saying that there is no rising number of cases anywhere? Or that you can't find them? The increase isn't just in coastal areas. Take a look at this: Här har smittspridningen i Västra Götaland ökat mest (SVT.se, Aug. 7, 2020)

Again as he said in the article 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.
You repeating the same arguments with out addressing any of the points I have made
[qimg]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50200009973_ed2d8e337b_c_d.jpg[/qimg]

Yes, and quite a few wouldn't have died. That means the unnecessary end of lives that could have been lived for several years. That you don't seem to get a single argument, primarily the ones about the goals of the Swedish strategy, makes it hard to have any kind of discussion with you.
Have you understood why Sweden's alleged goals with failed completely? That the curve wasn't flattened to the extent that it prevented to health-care system from breaking down, and to the extent that it didn't succeed in protecting the elderly? Those were the alleged intentions behind the Swedish strategy, Tegnell repeated them endlessly, so you are moving the goalposts and saying that, well, those old people didn't matter anyway.
What an utterly despicable attitude to human lives.

 

[dann]

During March, April and May Scotland had as many deaths as Sweden. We're not proud of this and it's considered a serious failure (becaise of the political decision to do whatever England did and not think for ourselves, but that's beside the point).

But now, we're opening up and hey presto some idiot (or idiots) goes on a pub crawl and suddenly cases are spiking again just in that area. I think the difference is that we're actually reporting it. I've complained time and time again about the Scottlsh government's tendency to secrecy, but at least they tell us when there's a cluster and how many cases and where the premises are. Sounds as if Sweden just isn't doing that.

No, it's more important to keep the clusters secret than to let people watch and learn.

 

[Rolfe]

This reminds me of the very young research graduate presenting a paper about the relationship between a very marked rise in diabetes in cats and a particular formula of cat food. Something like 5% of cats were developing diabetes on this stuff. She said but it's fine really because 95% of cats aren't having any problem.

"This disease isn't a problem because it only killed 0.06% of the population" isn't an argument you'll hear very often in public health circles. We could probably ignore everything from AIDS to TB to polio on that basis.

"We think losing 0.06% of the population is fine and it's irrelevant that other countries have only lost a tenth of that or less" isn't really a winner either.

 

[Gavin]

Yes, if a Swedish doctor is unable to see that he can't base the number of infections in Sweden on his own experience with infections in one of the hardest hit areas in Sweden, Stockholm, then I seem to know something he doesn't.
Your English is a little hard to understand: Are you saying that there is no rising number of cases anywhere? Or that you can't find them? The increase isn't just in coastal areas. Take a look at this: Här har smittspridningen i Västra Götaland ökat mest (SVT.se, Aug. 7, 2020)



Yes, and quite a few wouldn't have died. That means the unnecessary end of lives that could have been lived for several years. That you don't seem to get a single argument, primarily the ones about the goals of the Swedish strategy, makes it hard to have any kind of discussion with you.
Have you understood why Sweden's alleged goals with failed completely? That the curve wasn't flattened to the extent that it prevented to health-care system from breaking down, and to the extent that it didn't succeed in protecting the elderly? Those were the alleged intentions behind the Swedish strategy, Tegnell repeated them endlessly, so you are moving the goalposts and saying that, well, those old people didn't matter anyway.
What an utterly despicable attitude to human lives.

That isn’t what I said I’m sorry anyone has to die I repeated his comment As he said in the article 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway are maybe not they have no way of knowing repeating the the same fatality rate isn’t going to change the fact that they flattened the curve with no lockdowns yes they flattened eventually but not in 4 month period with no lockdowns.

Because most of the deaths where in nursing homes proves no lockdown had nothing to do with it.

 

[bruto]

I would have thought that part of the value of flattening the curve would depend on where it is when it flattens. I mean, after all, if everyone dies, the curve will be beautifully flat, but most of us would hope for fewer.

 

[Klimax]

5,763 deaths out of 10 million people that’s 0.0576 percent of the population saying it’s failure because it had more deaths then another country wouldn’t be fair

Want fair?
How about Czech Republic: 389 dead total.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

Yes, to all of that, but what is your point?

My point is ........

Scania is open, and Scania (1,4 million) had 11 Covid-19 deaths in the last two weeks, which is more than (almost twice as much as) the other four Nordic countries (16 million) combined.
That Denmark and Germany decided to open up for Swedish tourists was not a good idea, in my opinion, but they did.

And speaking of schools: Not even the teachers unions of Sweden seem to take the concerns of their own members seriously. I don't consider that to be a recommendation of the Swedish strategy:

....... that it is what it is. You say that allowing us into Denmark and Germany "was not a good idea" but the fact is (the truth, reality) is that we are allowed into those countries - and more. So perhaps there is more to understand than you know.

 

[llwyd]

Well, if Finland would now have 3000 deaths (of whichever age - and our age structure is worse than in Sweden) and 40 000 confirmed cases with other very comparable Nordic neighbours having in total a fraction of ours, we would have a new government. There would have been such a fierce storm of criticism that the government in charge would have promptly fallen. Sweden really is a special case - this odd consensus seems unhealthy to an outsider.

 

[dann]

That isn’t what I said I’m sorry anyone has to die I repeated his comment As he said in the article 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway are maybe not they have no way of knowing repeating the the same fatality rate isn’t going to change the fact that they flattened the curve with no lockdowns yes they flattened eventually but not in 4 month period with no lockdowns.

Because most of the deaths where in nursing homes proves no lockdown had nothing to do with it.

You don't know what you are talking about, obviously: People in Swedish nursing homes were infected to the extent that they were, i.e. 70% of 5.763 deaths, because Sweden went for 'flattening the curve' instead of hammering the virus down. Sweden had its own stupid way of allegedly trying to protect the elderly: often no proper PPE in care homes, insufficient education of staff, stupid advice from the government and Tegnell (Stay home if you have symptoms!), which all means that a lot of staff were infected and then transmitted the virus to residents at nursing homes. They did so to the extent that they did because the level of infections in Sweden was as high as it was.
That other Nordic countries didn't have a similar number of old people die wasn't primarily due to the different routines in their care strategies. It was because the contagion in general wasn't as high as in Sweden.
It had everything to do with the Swedish 'flattening the curve' strategy!

 

[dann]

My point is ........

....... that it is what it is. You say that allowing us into Denmark and Germany "was not a good idea" but the fact is (the truth, reality) is that we are allowed into those countries - and more. So perhaps there is more to understand than you know.

Perhaps there is more to understand than you think you know:

Regjeringen åpner nå for karantenefrie reiser til fire nye regioner i Sverige: Dalarna, Södermanland, Uppsala og Västerbotten. Men for Skåne og Kronoberg har tendensen snudd, og disse to regionene går altså fra grønt til rødt igjen. Følgende svenske regioner er nå grønne: Blekinge, Dalarna, Kalmar, Södermanland, Uppsala, Örebro, Östergötland og Värmland og Västerbotten.
Endring i reiseråd for Frankrike, Monaco, Sveits og Tsjekkia (regjeringen.no, Aug. 6, 2020)

Norway transfers some of the Swedish regions that they had opened up for from status green back to red because their levels of infection are too high again.

 

[dann]

Want fair?
How about Czech Republic: 389 dead total.

Well, you know that only Belgium, the UK, Spain and the Netherlands (the latter only when they are having a flare up) are comparable to Sweden. The other Nordic countries and the Czech Republic shouldn't be mentioned in this context, and New Zealand is an island nation so they won't do at all. They are all out of Sweden's league!

 

[dann]

I would have thought that part of the value of flattening the curve would depend on where it is when it flattens. I mean, after all, if everyone dies, the curve will be beautifully flat, but most of us would hope for fewer.

That is the reason why it's such a stupid goal to have. When it seemed to be impossible to beat the virus and unavoidable that it would infect everybody sooner or later, it was an honorable goal to try to make sure that the health care system didn't break down due to a sudden overwhelming number of cases. There was something to be said for the idea of merely slowing down the spread, which is all Sweden managed to do by limiting their pandemic response to little more than appeals to Swedes to socially distance.

That they got so far down the hole that they actually had do do long-distance triage and deny old people access to ICU treatment and gave them palliative care instead is so bloody awful that Swedes prefer to be in denial about it. They actually claim that the health care system never broke down since the doctors and nurses were able to cope with the patients that were admitted to the hospitals, forgetting entirely about those who weren't.
That is like the leader of the firebrigade pointing to his shiny new fire truck in the garage, 'Look, it doesn't have a scratch!' as proof that the firebrigade is doing fine while the town is burning down.

And now when a vaccine seems to be available in a no-longer-very-distant future, the leaders of Sweden's pandemic response seem to be hell-bent on beating the vaccine to the finishing line and making sure that Sweden gets its version of 'herd immunity' before the arrival of the vaccine, so Tegnell can call the Swedish strategy a success story.

 

[Klimax]

Well, you know that only Belgium, the UK, Spain and the Netherlands (the latter only when they are having a flare up) are comparable to Sweden. The other Nordic countries and the Czech Republic shouldn't be mentioned in this context, and New Zealand is an island nation so they won't do at all. They are all out of Sweden's league!

And Portugal is no good too. (Just 1/4 of Sweden dead)

 

[Childlike Empress]

Meanwhile in Belarus:

As of 7 August, 68,614 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in Belarus. The number of new cases is 111 per day, the Healthcare Ministry reports.

64,200 patients recovered and were discharged from hospitals (+444 patients in the 24 hours). A total of 583 coronavirus patients have died (+3 in the 24 hours) since the outbreak.

That is there are 3,831 COVID-19 infected people in the country at the moment. Belarus has conducted 1,353,657 tests (+9,354 in the 24 hours).

 

[Giordano]

From a Swedish ER doctor.

(Snip)
Considering that 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway. That makes covid a mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

Actually more than 94% of 80 years olds make it to 81 if not infected with Covid-19. On average they live 6 to 7 more years, even in Sweden and even based on older statistics not reflecting more recent medical progress:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE...ref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub 0www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

If you were 30 years old for example, and were told that you had a fatal disease that will kill you immediately, but there was a treatment that could buy you on average another 6 to 7 years, would you not take the treatment? Why are you so disparaging of the right of 80 year olds to their extra 6 to 7 years by being protected from covid infection?