Finally, a statistic he might not be able to ignore, or fudge in public.
I for one hope he continues to believe his own stats ("96% APPROVAL IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY!" -- soon to be 97%, I guess) and refuse to believe the polls put out be CNN and of all places, Fox News, whose recent poll generally agreed with CNN's. The "fake" one that CNN got sued by Trump for.
I hope he believes his own stats until Election Day, when he will turn to his staff (like today!) incredulous and say, "What the hell happened?" Then hell, he can blame anybody all he wants.
Until I saw that latest posted picture, I thought the other end would have been just over his shoulder. But no, it goes completely around his neck and matches the length of the more visible side, as you can just see the tail sticking out.
I'd say your estimate is correct.