PartSkeptic’s Thread for Predictions and Other Matters of Interest

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Evidence?


I was meaning to respond but got the appropriate response this morning.

Cathy says to Asok "Ugh. Dilbert is on the project team. That guy doesn't believe in safety."
Asok replies "Just out of curiosity, what evidence of that extremely weird allegation have you seen?"
Cathy "What evidence do you have that you exist? See" Anyone can do that."
 
I was meaning to respond but got the appropriate response this morning.

Cathy says to Asok "Ugh. Dilbert is on the project team. That guy doesn't believe in safety."
Asok replies "Just out of curiosity, what evidence of that extremely weird allegation have you seen?"
Cathy "What evidence do you have that you exist? See" Anyone can do that."


Nope, that doesn’t support your claim about “sensitization”.
 
For context, here’s the series of posts that PartSkeptic was relying to there:
The two guys spent a lot of time in the roof. The direct radiation is the highest there. The foil on the ceiling reflects the radiation upwards. They, in effect, get a double dose. I expect the high dose over 12 days may have reduced their immune systems.

At least you have one fact right. Sensitization is a matter of dose and duration - as well as underlying predispositions such as chemical sensitivities. I wonder how long it would take if one spent a few hours each day close the antennae?



Evidence?

I was meaning to respond but got the appropriate response this morning.

Cathy says to Asok "Ugh. Dilbert is on the project team. That guy doesn't believe in safety."
Asok replies "Just out of curiosity, what evidence of that extremely weird allegation have you seen?"
Cathy "What evidence do you have that you exist? See" Anyone can do that."
 
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I was meaning to respond but got the appropriate response this morning.

Cathy says to Asok "Ugh. Dilbert is on the project team. That guy doesn't believe in safety."
Asok replies "Just out of curiosity, what evidence of that extremely weird allegation have you seen?"
Cathy "What evidence do you have that you exist? See" Anyone can do that."
Anyone can indeed ask for evidence when someone makes a claim. And should, especially if it's an outrageous unsupported one.

You do realise Scot Adams is mocking people like you here?
 
Anyone can indeed ask for evidence when someone makes a claim. And should, especially if it's an outrageous unsupported one.

You do realise Scot Adams is mocking people like you here?


It seems to have taken him 4 days to fail to find any evidence.
 
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I have not read any responses yet.

Yesterday I went to the tower house. 45 minutes at 9 am to allocate work to a gardener, and then 45 minutes at 12:15 to do some work and pick up the gardener. I wore only a head shield. That morning I took two pain tablets.

That evening did not feel good. Mild headache but body pains. This morning I have body pains - arms, chest, back, shoulders - that are quite severe.

At 12h00 I need to do about an hours work at the tower house. I have made a mesh smock which I will also wear.

Last night I wondered why I HAVE to do a test. It would be for my own confirmation. Not because people here are daring me to or saying I will wimp out. My wife ask why I continue to post here. "Don't you have other useful things to do?" I will do so in my own time and pace. And may or may not post the results - even if 100% right.

She is right. What have I learned? That even when it comes to science, people can be fed a bunch of lies which they will believe because they want to. If those lies include the phrase "EMF harm is a conspiracy theory by a bunch of tin-hatters" then forums like this are fired up. Fresh meat to prove they are superior. They are! At scoffing and insulting and muddying the waters.

I see corruption in so many areas. Big and small. It is tiresome. It is part of the fight for dwindling resources. The world needs change.

Here is what I will be told about the last 24 hours:

Firstly there is no proof of either harm or of any effect by emf.
Correlation is not causation.
Your symptoms are psychosomatic.
You are simply a victim of confirmation bias.

And as for testing:
No matter how many tests you get right, you are just one person.
There could be subtle clues to let you know the unit is on, even with double blind testing.
It is simply not acceptable evidence.

Got it. So why continue?

Last night my wife told me how Covid-19 is affecting people. Here in SA people are in the depressed phase of lock-down. Financial hardship and stress. I can feel that the world has changed and that the effects will be long lasting.

You have two parts of my prediction (which is a message from God) in the early stages of coming true. A pandemic will reduce the population. The associated problems will (as shown in history) cause further depopulation.

It will take time and will be slow because humankind needs to learn lessons. Humankind will have less faith is science and humankind's ability to solve all and any problem. There will be a renewed spiritual awakening.

I intend to post less. Feel free to crow and say "I told you he would not do the tests." I never did something because of a dare. That is childish (even when I was a child). I did things that had an outcome of some sort. When I was 15, a mentally disturbed boy of 17 (he was in and out of institutions) had a large hunting knife and threatened me in the alley. I told him I was not scared of him. He drew a line in the dirt with his knife and said "Step across and I will kill you." I stepped across. You know what comes next. Another 4 lines. Another 4 crossings. Outcome? He then knew just having a big knife would not make him feared in our neighborhood. (An early confrontation with a demon?)
 
What have I learned? That even when it comes to science, people can be fed a bunch of lies which they will believe because they want to.
If you had really learned that, you would not still be doing it.

Sceptics believe things only when the evidence for them is convincing, whether they want them to be true or not. There are all sorts of supposedly supernatural and paranormal phenomena I would really love to believe in - a merciful god, for example - but for me wanting something to be true is not sufficient reason to believe it. That is what makes me, and the other sceptics here, so different to you.
 
If you had really learned that, you would not still be doing it.

Sceptics believe things only when the evidence for them is convincing, whether they want them to be true or not. There are all sorts of supposedly supernatural and paranormal phenomena I would really love to believe in - a merciful god, for example - but for me wanting something to be true is not sufficient reason to believe it. That is what makes me, and the other sceptics here, so different to you.

That is quite true. For me it is telekinesis. That would be so cool. But I also know it ain't happening in this universe. Just me channelling my inner jedi.

Anyway, to address the latest PS missive, it is the usual mish-mash of the "poor me" routine, the dodge, unevidenced claims and bald assertions.

Of note, however, are a couple of things.

He thinks demons walk about the world. Load of old cobblers.
He confirms his consumption of painkillers like smarties.

That provoked me to do some reading about painkiller addiction.
Let's just say it was....interesting reading.
 
I have not read any responses yet.

Mmmm, sure. That's a standard way of trying to belittle posters - state the above to imply that their posts are not worth reading.

Yesterday ...<anecdote snip>

At 12h00 I need to do about an hours work at the tower house. I have made a mesh smock which I will also wear.

You should really getting a full length suit of chainmail. I'm sure it will help your EM problem, and it will definitely protect you against slings and arrows.

Last night I wondered why I HAVE to do a test. It would be for my own confirmation. Not because people here are daring me to or saying I will wimp out. My wife ask why I continue to post here. "Don't you have other useful things to do?" I will do so in my own time and pace. And may or may not post the results - even if 100% right.

Your bias is showing - you're already predetermining the result. We're not daring you to do anything. All we were trying to do was come to a joint agreement on some sort of test that would prove or disprove your theory that EM waves are giving you headaches.

Your wife has a point - why do you post here? You're obviously out of your depth when it comes to putting forward evidence-based theories, not to mention your uncanny ability to ignore anything that you cannot answer. Engaging with you is like trying to nail jelly to the wall.

You won't do the tests. Further down in your post you use the term "childish". This is exactly the sort of behavior you are exhibiting with your "I may or may not" statement". That's fine, I don't think anybody cares, really.

What have I learned? That even when it comes to science, people can be fed a bunch of lies which they will believe because they want to. If those lies include the phrase "EMF harm is a conspiracy theory by a bunch of tin-hatters" then forums like this are fired up. Fresh meat to prove they are superior. They are! At scoffing and insulting and muddying the waters.

There's no such thing as "belief" in science - you see, science is a subject that stresses peer review and repeatability. I don't "believe" that the earth is round, I can observe for myself, and take measurements to replicate other's measurements and repeated experiences. (On that note, I don't "believe" in some some supernatural sky daddy either).

We're not superior, we're grounded. In science.

(Aside: the only time I've seen the word "scoff" is in relation to Kent Hovind.)

I see corruption in so many areas. Big and small. It is tiresome. It is part of the fight for dwindling resources. The world needs change.

So do we all, but that has got nothing to do with the subject at hand and your inane theories.

Here is what I will be told about the last 24 hours:

Firstly there is no proof of either harm or of any effect by emf.
Correlation is not causation.
Your symptoms are psychosomatic.
You are simply a victim of confirmation bias.

Mostly true, though I suspect your symptoms are mainly just old age, which you are trying to justify through other causes. It's normal to degrade - some people are lucky, and are relatively healthy for 95% of their lives, some get smacked before they are 50.

And as for testing:
No matter how many tests you get right, you are just one person.

One person who has specifically claimed he is affected directly by something that they have identified as the cause.

At this stage we're not here to prove EM radiation is harmful, we are asking you to prove your claim that YOU can tell when a transmitting device is transmitting or not.


There could be subtle clues to let you know the unit is on, even with double blind testing.
It is simply not acceptable evidence.

Pixel42 has patiently been engaging with you to eke out a test procedure that would remove bias. She is an expert at this, as are a lot of us. Given time and the opportunity, I can just about guarantee you that a test could be designed that would not be influenced at all by extraneous circumstances. However, I doubt at all that you would agree to take part, given your history here.

<random waffling snipped>

I intend to post less. Feel free to crow and say "I told you he would not do the tests." I never did something because of a dare. That is childish (even when I was a child). I did things that had an outcome of some sort.

Posting less: you said this before, yet here you are.

Sure, I'll say it: I KNEW you would not do the tests, and I'm sure that many others who have been watching this thread felt the same way. See, you're no different to most of the other claimants who in the old days (when this forum was pre-pubescent) tried to win Randi's Million Dollar Challenge. We've watched them all - when they are told to "put up or shut up", the silence is deafening.

(An early confrontation with a demon?)

:dl:
 
At this stage we're not here to prove EM radiation is harmful, we are asking you to prove your claim that YOU can tell when a transmitting device is transmitting or not.
It's worth remembering that PS has on several occasions made clear his absolute certainty that his headaches are triggered by his home wifi (as well as other kinds of emr). There was no suggestion that there was any dependency on anything other than it being switched on until yesterday.

Pixel42 has patiently been engaging with you to eke out a test procedure that would remove bias. She is an expert at this, as are a lot of us. Given time and the opportunity, I can just about guarantee you that a test could be designed that would not be influenced at all by extraneous circumstances.
Whilst it's true that error and bias can creep in despite the best of intentions, the double blind test is the gold standard of scientific experimentation for a reason. There are a couple of improvements that could be made to improve the rigour of the test PS has most recently proposed, but like you I'm confident he could find out if he really can tell by his symptoms whether the WiFi is on or off with a high degree of certainty if that was really what he wanted to do.
 
It's worth remembering that PS has on several occasions made clear his absolute certainty that his headaches are triggered by his home wifi (as well as other kinds of emr). There was no suggestion that there was any dependency on anything other than it being switched on until yesterday.


Yes, exactly, which is why his initial "pulsed is worse than continuous trasmission" is a red herring. His subsequent brief mention of FDM/TDM/CDM is a similar kettle of small cerise-coloured piscenes.

Whilst it's true that error and bias can creep in despite the best of intentions, the double blind test is the gold standard of scientific experimentation for a reason. There are a couple of improvements that could be made to improve the rigour of the test PS has most recently proposed, but like you I'm confident he could find out if he really can tell by his symptoms whether the WiFi is on or off with a high degree of certainty if that was really what he wanted to do.


Agreed. However, participation by an individual genuinely interested in root cause analysis into their malaise is a priority criteria. Sadly, I believe know we do not have that luxury in this case.
 
I have not read any responses yet.

That's disappointing. I had hoped you would learn something about your critics that would convince you they are not the cretins you keep calling them. A lot of people have expended a lot of effort trying to address your nominal complaints. Your grateful attention would have been appreciated. Nobody is really interested in your running diary of symptoms or anecdotes from your childhood. That's not what this forum is for. But more importantly, I rather think you should have spent the time it took to post all this irrelevant garbage to read what others have said to you.

Last night I wondered why I HAVE to do a test. It would be for my own confirmation.

Yes, and the hope that once the root cause is identified, a remedy can be found. I do hard science to keep me out of courtrooms. Other people do good science because they love the natural world, or they feel the need to help people in general. There are as many reasons as there are scientists. Good science in this case would be to your direct, personal benefit. It's not just academic "confirmation." What you think or believe, that would be academically confirmed by an experiment, doesn't matter to anyone else.

What have I learned? That even when it comes to science, people can be fed a bunch of lies which they will believe because they want to.

That's exactly what science isn't. And it's patently not what your critics have done.

Fresh meat to prove they are superior. They are! At scoffing and insulting and muddying the waters.

This strikes me as projection. As I pointed out yesterday, you've gone out of your way to make this a debate about whether you're smarter than the skeptics. You've peppered every day's posts with fairly naked claims to that effect. Your entire tenure at this forum is a saga of claiming to be better than others by some measure: you're better educated, you were better at your job, God talks to you, you can do signs and wonders. It's quite a list.

All the while your critics have been patiently open to the notion that all of these things could be true, and that you are the better man along whatever dimension you claim. Some of them have been extraordinary claims, to be sure. But at every step all your critics have asked for is evidence that would tend to support your claims. You've stubbornly refused to provide it. In contrast, when your critics demonstrate the fruits of their knowledge and experience, you ignore it and berate them. And worse.

I've said you seem to be drawing your science not from scientists but from politically-minded activists who have created the narrative of trying to hold powerful interests accountable. Very well, that's how that debate typically goes. But you seem oblivious to the possibility they they too might have an agenda that biases their presentation of the facts. Naturally from them you're going to get only one side of the scientific question, interpreted through the lens of politics. It's not "muddying" the waters to wipe off that lens and widen the view of what the science really looks like.

When you claim that certain dissimilar forms of radiation should be considered equivalent, a thorough discussion of the difference is not muddying the waters. A similarly thorough discussion of genetic mutation is not mud. Not to be too "meta," but what really might be seen as obfuscation is writing off as such posts that are clearly filled with information that should be considered in depth and responded to in a conscientious debate. When your propositions are demonstrably simplistic and based on obviously cherry-picked support, filling in the gaps is the right answer.

What might be further considered clouding the issue is to weigh down a proposed protocol with a bunch of buzzwords and vague handwaving so as to suggest the experiment could never be performed in a dispositive way. The goal of the experiment was modest, as were its expectations. But in any case, your last-ditch effort to make the experiment seem objectively disrecommendable did more than simply repeat the ploy of trying to techno-bluster your way into the illusion of erudition. It ignored a very fundamental way in which science -- as practiced -- has learned about how to deal with the messiness of the real world. You're simply not a scientist, and the only harm that shortcoming has caused you is self-inflicted. You try to play one, but you are clearly in over your head. Stop playing one, and your problems with others evaporate.

Here is what I will be told about the last 24 hours:

This is why you infuriate people. You calmly announce that you haven't read their statements. And then in the middle of a wall of rambling anecdotes and pontification, you shove arguments into their mouths that they never made. Ignoring what people say is disappointing. After that, pretending they said what you want them to have said is insulting.

No matter how many tests you get right, you are just one person.

Irrelevant. This is an experiment tailored to you and your specific claims. You are the only suitable subject, and the only measurement being taken is whether the correlation exists that you've claimed only in your specific case. No other hypothesis is being tested, such that other subjects would be appropriate.

There could be subtle clues to let you know the unit is on, even with double blind testing.

Handwaving.

It is simply not acceptable evidence.

It is in your case, which is all we're concerned with. If we were trying to prove that electromagnetic field effects consistently or generally cause harm, it would be insufficient evidence. But that's not the purpose of the test. At this point we only want to show correlation in your isolated case. The hypothesis is, "PartSkeptic can tell by somewhat extrasensory means whether the wifi is operating." There is no claim being made that the results in your case would generalize any wider. The test does not fail merely because a broader scope exists.

If there is no correlation, then we don't need to delve into the details of causation, because there is no causation. If there is measurable correlation, then we can go on to investigate causation -- including potential confounds -- with a more rigorous protocol. Professional scientists do this all the time. Pilot studies are sometimes reported, but only if there is general interest.

So why continue?

You obviously aren't going to do the test, as most of your critics predicted. Try as you might to say it's for reasons of scientific invalidity, you simply cannot walk that walk. Your critics here are obviously far more experienced than you in what constitutes acceptable scientific practice. Repeatedly ignoring them doesn't make that go away. Repeatedly calling them ignorant doesn't make that go away. Repeatedly pretending they must cling to the arguments you hand them to say, doesn't make that go away.

Having dismissed your flimsy pretext, I will once again invoke the only relevant anecdote from a previous thread: you had a relative who claimed to be a dowser and refused for a long time to be tested. When finally tested, he failed. What makes you any different? As someone else so cleverly put it, you're claiming to be able to dowse electromagnetic energy. Your critics credibly conclude that you refuse to be tested so that you can keep on believing you're special in that way. You refuse the test not because it's scientifically invalid, but because one can't fail a test one never takes.

It's not about your critics rejecting something because of what they want to believe about the world in general. It's about you rejecting something because of what you want to believe about yourself. What you want to believe about yourself is no one else's concern. So if I were you, I would go live out the rest of my life in whatever comfort can obtained. I would avoid continuing to make the mistake that what you believe about yourself is something others should believe about you on no more authority than your say-so. It's a mistake you don't need to make, and which is apparently not working out for you.

I intend to post less.

As well you should. You're not using this forum in the way it was intended, nor in a way that profits you. If you like writing things and posting them on the Internet just for people to see and appreciate, rather than challenge, then I daresay that's not hard to accomplish in a place where challenging extraordinary claims is not the expected norm.
 
Yes, exactly, which is why his initial "pulsed is worse than continuous trasmission" is a red herring.

Radio signals have been "pulsed" since the days of Marconi. All that's changed is the power and the frequency at which they're modulated. The power has decreased and the frequency has increased. The frequency would have to increase dramatically (i.e., past the visible spectrum) before it would be able to cause any of the effects PartSkeptic wants to talk about.

His subsequent brief mention of FDM/TDM/CDM...

Literally as inconsequential as whether the on-off switch on your modem is red or green. These just describe different ways of arranging the signal on the carriers to improve throughput or detect errors. If you didn't know which modulation method was being used, it would just look like the same squiggly pulses in each case. Not even an effect, much less a confounding effect.

The advocates, however, who PartSkeptic seems to believe are talented scientists, seem to regard these as embodying some sort of kiss-of-death tattoo in the radio band.
 
I've just whiled away the last few minutes inventing the following scenario:

In the far distance future humanity's descendants have advanced to the point that they can retrieve minds from the distant past and create virtually immortal bodies for them. They can pick and choose the individuals they want to join them, and decide that the irrational - those who chose to remain wilfully ignorant - are so unlike them, and will have so much trouble adjusting to their world, that they are best not reincarnated. So anyone who chose to believe any kind of woo (and of course anyone who voted for Trump or Brexit) doesn't get an afterlife.

Hey, that was fun.

And of course I have just as much reason to believe my scenario as you do to believe yours, i.e. none whatever.

See Riverworld by Philip José Farmer.
 
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