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The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread

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At the bottom of this message is a chart (left) that John Hopkins University has released showing a rolling seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. vs. sixteen European countries. The sixteen countries -- their names are on the bottom of the chart -- have a combined population of about 332 million people virtually the same figure as the U.S. The U.S. figures are somewhat misleading because a handful of states have managed to greatly reduce new cases and deaths while most have not. Some states are doing terribly. Yesterday Arizona, Florida and Texas had their largest one-day increases in new cases. On the right below is the Google/Wiki chart of new cases per day. Google/Wiki link

One reason for the differing results between Western Europe and the United States often cited is the mixed response in the U.S. Jonathan Bernstein, a political scientist and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, recently wrote that government efforts have been a colossal failure. The public has been getting "mixed and muffled messages about what to do.” Bernstein believes the trouble starts at the top.

Trump briefly tried saying that the country was at war with the coronavirus. Whatever the merits of that framing, he never acted like it was true. The general consensus seems to be that this president simply can’t tolerate sharing the spotlight with anyone else, even if doing so would benefit him politically (as containing the virus surely would have). Perhaps there’s some other reason. But the results are clear. Trump sidelined the experts, never so much as gestured toward bipartisanship and — even during the brief period when he took the threat seriously — spent little time explaining what ordinary citizens could do to help. Now he just avoids talking about the whole thing. Bloomberg News link
 

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I live in Oregon which has had an above 50% increase in cases and the second largest number of deaths of any county. Despite this, I saw several people today at the grocery store not wearing masks. I wanted to scream at them "Are you stupid or do you just not give a damn about anyone but yourselves?
Maybe the person not wearing the mask doesn't have the virus.
 
We're probably going to get to 120,000 deaths in less time than six months. Below is a chart from Worldometer. It shows the U.S had just over 80,000 deaths since March 31st. That's forty-four days. At the current rate we'll pass 100,000 next week sometime.


Yes, and 120,000 will be early next month.


I didn't get it quite right one month (!) ago, but it will probably happen within the next 24 hours, unfortunately.
Right now: 119,453 (Worldometers, June 17, 2020)
 
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Well, heck. On Sunday I came down with a fever (along with an upsurge in the GERD-related chronic cough I've had for months) so I got to "test" Massachusetts's testing system a bit.

Sunday, I called my PCP's offices and state hotlines, also attempted a state "24/7" text chat line. No response.

Monday, PCP office now open! Answered questions. Got forwarded to a state hotline. Answered more questions. Got appointment at a test facility (outside a local hospital -- well, it's not in my locality but it's local to the place it's in) for Tuesday.

Tuesday, went to the testing center. Followed the Soup Nazi instructions I'd been given by the phone hotline person. ("Follow the signs toward the testing tent. Park in the designated lot. Wear a mask. Walk toward the tent with your ID in your hand.") Got swabbed. It all went very smoothly. Feels weird. No big deal.

I'm suppose to get the results in three to five days. It will likely be three days (that is, Friday) because of the timing of the weekly results cycle. Tests swabbed Thursday or Friday are probably the ones that take up to five days. We'll see.

Does this all seem, like, really slow to anyone else? At this point in MA there's no surge or backlog of cases, so why the (by my count) at least four wasted days? Like, isn't part of the point of testing to start the things you do in case of a positive test as quickly as possible? I don't mean treatment; that has its own timing that depends entirely on symptoms. And I don't mean quarantining myself, which one is instructed to do regardless until results are in. But things like tracing and notifying recent contacts, and initiating "isolation" which in MA has more requirements than mere quarantine.

In typical Covid models an infected person is contagious two to three days before symptoms start. If I get a positive result this Friday I could have been infecting people at the grocery store last Thursday. That's unavoidable, but they could be infecting more people today or tomorrow, which would be avoidable with fast testing and tracing but will be ancient history by Friday. Or Saturday. Or... well, the entire health care system seems to disappear into a time vortex on Sundays, so maybe Monday...

I think what's happened is, Massachusetts has built an electric luxury Cadillac SUV of a testing system, with advanced data tracking and insurance integration features, that has a top speed of 15 MPH and a range of twelve miles. By the time I get my test results, they'll have already been integrated into the daily state "dashboard" report, a masterpiece of infographics. Links will have been established with my medical records, my PCP's office, and my insurance. There will be no hastily scrawled pen and paper notes to be entered into databases later, because it all was done first, with completing the actual test as almost an afterthought.

There was probably no point in picking up the hotline on Sunday because nothing could be done anyhow without the participation of those additional parties and they were closed. And no testing was available Monday because, I don't know, the moon was in the wrong house maybe?

Overall, Massachusetts cases are way down since our epic surge in April, and we're not screwing up our re-opening for dumb political reasons, so I'm not actually complaining. I'm just curious, and perhaps offering another answer to why it takes so much longer to get cases down in the U.S. than it has in other countries. Because though the systems here seem to have a comparable sense of urgency to, say, China, the focus of the urgency is on completing the electronic red tape to produce elegant graphic dashboards instead of on rapid results.

Oh, and I'm already feeling better. The fever's gone and the cough has declined to minor chronic background severity. Though it's still possible I have Covid-19, it's unlikely. (As it should be. Less than three percent of the swab tests in MA are coming up positive these days.) If it is positive my wife and I might have "isolation" hassles to get through (we can't isolate from each other in our 800 sq. ft. one bath; and won't it be much too late for that anyhow, as I was saying above?) but it also means I'll have some immunity at a low cost.
 
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(Respectful snip)

In typical Covid models an infected person is contagious two to three days before symptoms start. If I get a positive result this Friday I could have been infecting people at the grocery store last Thursday. That's unavoidable, but they could be infecting more people today or tomorrow, which would be avoidable with fast testing and tracing but will be ancient history by Friday. Or Saturday. Or... well, the entire health care system seems to disappear into a time vortex on Sundays, so maybe Monday...

Just curious, when you went to the grocery store were you wearing a mask?
 
Just curious, when you went to the grocery store were you wearing a mask?


Yes, and doing so is still mandatory in MA.

ETA: If your point is that such a "contact" wouldn't be worth tracing anyhow, then fair enough. But I'm talking about more general principles here. In theory I could have gone to a completely legal private gathering of up to ten people that day.
 
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At the bottom of this message is a chart (left) that John Hopkins University has released showing a rolling seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. vs. sixteen European countries.

Thanks for those.

For those interested, I like this site too. It's got some good interactive graphs that allow you to look at linear vs log as well as normalizing by population. It's one of a few that I've been keeping tabs on.

An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19
 
Does this all seem, like, really slow to anyone else?

Yes. An infected person could pass that infection a lot of places in five days. Far better to have quick results.


Maybe that's just impossible, but it seems to me that if we can give 1200 dollars to everyone, maybe would could have hired some extra testers instead and made the process quicker.
 
Yes, and doing so is still mandatory in MA.

ETA: If your point is that such a "contact" wouldn't be worth tracing anyhow, then fair enough. But I'm talking about more general principles here. In theory I could have gone to a completely legal private gathering of up to ten people that day.

I'm surprised they didn't tell you to stay quarantined at home before being tested and while waiting for results.
 
Yes. An infected person could pass that infection a lot of places in five days. Far better to have quick results.


Maybe that's just impossible, but it seems to me that if we can give 1200 dollars to everyone, maybe would could have hired some extra testers instead and made the process quicker.

It was testers, swabs, special tubes, PPE for people administering the tests, transport and labs to take the tests to, people to answer the phones telling people how to get the tests, doctors/NPs/PAs to order the tests, and most importantly, CDC guidelines that expanded the people who were allowed to be tested.
 
Anyone interested in how this pandemic unfolded, Frontline had a great piece on last night. It is free to stream online:

The Virus - What Went Wrong
As COVID-19 spread from Asia to the Middle East to Europe, why was the U.S. caught so unprepared? Despite repeated warnings of a potent contagion headed our way, America’s leaders failed to prepare and protect us. Why and who is accountable?

As usual it was excellent.
 
I'm surprised they didn't tell you to stay quarantined at home before being tested and while waiting for results.


They did tell me that, after I contacted them (on Mon), after I got symptoms (on Sun.). They can't go back in time to tell me last Thursday.
 
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Tuesday the state's highest-ever number of new COVID-19 cases: 2,622.
He also reported a second record high: 2,518 people hospitalized with the virus in Texas, up from 2,326 a day earlier.

He let Texans know about the "abundant" hospital capacity for treating people with COVID-19.
 
In this corner: Abundance! In the opposite corner: Growth! Which will win? Place your bets now folks!
 
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Tuesday the state's highest-ever number of new COVID-19 cases: 2,622.
He also reported a second record high: 2,518 people hospitalized with the virus in Texas, up from 2,326 a day earlier. He let Texans know about the "abundant" hospital capacity for treating people with COVID-19.

Texas' numbers do not look too good. Yesterday there were almost four times the number of new cases as on May 1, the day Abbott began easing restrictions. The trending is terrible. Gov. Abbott still seems largely unconcerned. He appeared on TV yesterday, to make the hospital beds announcement, without wearing a face mask though other officials present had them had them on. Abbott said he "recommends" wearing a mask but will not make it mandatory nor will he permit Texas cities to make face masks mandatory. NBC TV in Dallas-Ft. Worth reported Abbott saying:
"We are in the middle of a short period of time where all of us have to coexist with COVID-19. The reality is COVID-19 still exists in Texas … this is going to continue to be the case for at least a few more months until we have medicines that are able to treat people who test positive for COVID-19 and until we have medicines that prevent people from getting COVID-19." NBC link

"All of us have to coexist with COVID-19." Except the people who die from it, right? :(
 

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Governor Abbott of Texas just issued a order forbidding cities and cunites from making the wearing of masks mandatory.
GOd, Texas is headed for disaster full speed and all the buy in charge cares about it kissing the butt of the President.
 
We are at the scary point in Arizona. We're looking at 50% growth in daily new cases per week for the last two weeks. Every day we set a new record for most daily cases. Some, including the governor, are pointing to increased testing, but in fact the tests haven't grown at anywhere near the rate of the positives, which means that the percentage of positive results is increasing rapidly--from 3.5% on May 8 (when the shelter-in-place order expired) to around 15% today.

I doubt if the governor has the will or the people the patience for another shutdown, but they should at least put out a requirement for masks in public places.

GOP GOvernor Abbott of Texas just issued an executive order forbidding city and county governments from making masks mandatory.
Texas is Scrrwed thanks to Abbott's blind determination to follow the Trump "Corona Vrrus is over" policy.
Now do you understnnd why I have lost all respect for the GOP over the past four years?
The GOP I once could support is dead.
 
Governor Abbott of Texas just issued a order forbidding cities and cunites from making the wearing of masks mandatory.
GOd, Texas is headed for disaster full speed and all the buy in charge cares about it kissing the butt of the President.

At least AZ Gov. Ducey said it's up to localities. But he did use Pence's argument - the problem is due to testing. And he refused to issue a state-wide order.
 
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