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Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 22

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varwoche said:
It's stunning. Florida by double digits. Michigan by double digits.
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Let's do the numbers:

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Belz... said:
Let's also be careful, remembering 2016.
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While I'm still taking like a general "20% hit to credibility" off the top of all political punditry after the 2016 fiasco, these leads, if they maintain, are substantially greater than Hillary's.

Hillary worried about the hairs margin in the Swing States she forgot about the Blue Wall. Biden doesn't seem to be making that same mistake again.

Again given how the system is now I am not getting comfortable, I don't think anything is going to shift my mindset from "Trump is going to win again" all the way to "Trump is going to lose again" but there's more uncertainty in the picture now at least.
 
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Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

Wow! May retail sales show biggest one-month increase of ALL TIME, up 17.7%. Far bigger than projected. Looks like a BIG DAY FOR THE STOCK MARKET, AND JOBS!
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JoeMorgue said:
BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE STUCK AT HOME BECAUSE OF A VIRUS FOR MONTHS AND RETAIL SALES PLUMMETED FOR THE ENTIRE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL YOU GINORMOUS TOAD.
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You know that, I know that, but enough of the US population may not know that to make them think that Donald Trump is some kind of economic genius and hence forget all about the last few months. :mad:
 
The downturn, of course, had nothing to do with Trump but was entirely the fault of China. The recovery, of course, was entirely due to Trump's brilliant leadership.

Oh, and he's weirdly proud of his supporters being angry white men. No, that's not a parody account.
 
JoeMorgue said:
BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE STUCK AT HOME BECAUSE OF A VIRUS FOR MONTHS AND RETAIL SALES PLUMMETED FOR THE ENTIRE MONTHS OF MARCH AND APRIL YOU GINORMOUS TOAD.
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Which also points out that all that "Ur Destroying my economy!" business was just stupid. Everyone with a brain knew that a lot of those jobs and sales would return as soon as we lifted the lockdowns, because people still need to buy ****.

The only business models that will suffer long-term problems are those that require large gatherings of people in situations where it's hard to maintain social distancing. And even those will recover quickly once a vaccine is found. The businesses might have new owners, but the market for their services will still be there, so someone is going to service that market.
 
Horatius said:
Which also points out that all that "Ur Destroying my economy!" business was just stupid. Everyone with a brain knew that a lot of those jobs and sales would return as soon as we lifted the lockdowns, because people still need to buy ****.

The only business models that will suffer long-term problems are those that require large gatherings of people in situations where it's hard to maintain social distancing. And even those will recover quickly once a vaccine is found. The businesses might have new owners, but the market for their services will still be there, so someone is going to service that market.
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There are some legitimate questions about how long the recession will last and whether or not all of the jobs will eventually come back.

Like the UK, the US economy is driven by the service sector and in particular retail consumption. If large numbers of people are unemployed or underemployed then they aren't going to make the kind of discretionary purchases which make up the top n% of the economy. There may not be a demand for quite so many nail salons, bars, restaurants and artisanal scented candles.

If the recession is long enough then there is a real prospect that people may only spend, say, 90% of their income as opposed to the 105% they spend now. That would have a serious long term economic impact.
 
Belz... said:
Let's also be careful, remembering 2016.
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True, but we shouldn't get trapped into thinking that 2020 is 2016 all over again. There are other data points, like black and brown turn out in 2018 along with record turn out across most categories. Forty-six percent of respondents indicated last year that they would not vote for Trump no matter what. The key difference is that in 2016 voters in three states decided to give Trump and try and see what happens. Now they know what happens.

Biden could lose this still if his party confuses the rejection of Trump with the endorsement of the most extreme policy initiatives on the progressive wing's agenda.
 
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