The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread

[pgwenthold]

I'm surprised you go even that far. Isn't spreading the virus a consequence of the freedom being exercised? You're just changing a constraint to the past when it's too late anyway. I would have thought a true libertarian would place the entire burden of protection on the recipient.

This is why it is so worthless to engage. It's so far afield from reality that it is all a waste of time.

Seriously, what use is it to have a discussion with someone who doesn't think drunk driving should be a crime. All there is to say is, Ok, fine, that's your opinion and it's not going to happen. No go away while we talk about reality.

 

[Meadmaker]

That the tests are not random misses the point I was making when I wrote that the virus in Michigan seems to be especially deadly. This is the figure for people who have been confirmed to be infected with Covid-19 in Michigan and the mortality rate among them is over 9%.

Article related to this:

https://wwmt.com/news/coronavirus/michigan-has-the-nations-highest-covid-19-death-rate

There's no definitive answer on why the death rate is so high for Michigan, but the most interesting fact from the article is that Kent County (Grand Rapids, the fastest growing city with lots and lots of new money) and Genessee County (Flint - really major poverty) each had exactly 1600 confirmed cases at the time the article was written, but Genessee County had 162 deaths, compared to Kent County's 36.

 

[Mumbles]

Article related to this:

https://wwmt.com/news/coronavirus/michigan-has-the-nations-highest-covid-19-death-rate

There's no definitive answer on why the death rate is so high for Michigan, but the most interesting fact from the article is that Kent County (Grand Rapids, the fastest growing city with lots and lots of new money) and Genessee County (Flint - really major poverty) each had exactly 1600 confirmed cases at the time the article was written, but Genessee County had 162 deaths, compared to Kent County's 36.

Expected - Flint is also far blacker, which even controlling for other factors means worse treatment from doctors/nurses, higher pollution rates leading to hypertension and lung issues, lower *wealth* at the same income leading to older and worse housing, and so forth. We've known this one for decades with various diseases. Same thing for Native communities, which are being ravaged.

 

[GlennB]

What does Pompeo think? (Or, does Pompeo think?)

“I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan,” Pompeo said, when asked about Trump’s claim this week to have seen intelligence confirming the theory that Covid-19 was man-made and did not originate in bats and find its way to humans via a “wet market”, as is generally accepted.

"Pompeo added: “The best experts so far seem to think it was man-made. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.”

Then the exchange with This Week host Martha Raddatz got confusing, as to what Pompeo does or does not think. This is from ABC’s transcript:

RADDATZ: Your Office of the [Director of National Intelligence] says the consensus, the scientific consensus [is that the virus] was not man-made or genetically modified.

POMPEO: That’s right. I agree with that. Yeah. I’ve seen their analysis. I’ve seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate..."

 

[newyorkguy]

I was very interested to read the link to the western Michigan news story about the state's high death rate, twice the national average. In looking for information, it appeared to me this story has not been reported nationally, and finding the right regional news site can be tricky. From the link:

Michigan has the country’s highest death rate. More than 9% of people who’ve tested positive for COVID-19 in Michigan have died, which is almost a full percentage point higher than the next closest state, Connecticut, where more than 8% of people who’ve tested positive have died. Every other state has a death rate lower than 7%. Nationwide the death rate is 5.8%.

Some of the difference with the statewide death rate can be attributed to the region’s recent spike in cases while other areas are already past their peak...County health officials in West Michigan said the region likely won't see a peak in cases for at least two or three weeks.Link

Why the death rate is higher in Michigan seems like a science or medical issue. This is the politics subforum. My point was (and is) the sheer mindlessness of protestors demanding Michigan relax its restrictions or eliminate them altogether. It makes no sense.
.

 

[Blue Mountain]

Florida, Georgia and Texas -- all states that have begun 'reopening' -- all saw spikes in new cases yesterday. Makes you wonder, in states where reopening is or has become a political issue, what do they do if new cases start increasing? Re-shutdown? Will they have the political willpower to reverse course? Google tracking link

Click to enlarge.

Let's be careful with the correlation/causation thing. Two other things to take into account are the incubation period and testing criteria. If tests are being done only for probable or possible cases, that spike could well be from infections that occurred anywhere from two days to two weeks ago.

 

[newyorkguy]

Just to touch on this-

Kent County and Genesee County have exactly 1,600 confirmed cases, but while Kent has 36 reported deaths, Genesee County has 192. The poverty rate in Genesee County is more than double Kent County.

Poverty is an important factor but it doesn't fully explain the disparity between these two counties. That the poverty rate in Genesee County is double the poverty rate in Kent County doesn't fully explain why Genesee County has over five times as many deaths. The fatality rate -- they both report 1,600 cases -- is just over 2% in Kent County and 12% in Genesee.

 

[newyorkguy]

When I uploaded the chart showing the spike in cases in Georgia and Texas I was not suggesting they were caused by the state's relaxing restrictions. That's missing the point.

White House guidelines state the criteria for reopening economies is a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period. Neither Georgia or Texas met that condition. Both states are still at a high level of new cases. Even trump criticized Georgia for reopening.

 

[slyjoe]

Just to touch on this-


Poverty is an important factor but it doesn't fully explain the disparity between these two counties. That the poverty rate in Genesee County is double the poverty rate in Kent County doesn't fully explain why Genesee County has over five times as many deaths. The fatality rate -- they both report 1,600 cases -- is just over 2% in Kent County and 12% in Genesee.

Not specific to coroonavirus, but in general hospitalizations are not linear with regard to income.

 

[Andy_Ross]

When asked about an unproven theory that the virus was manmade - a notion President Donald Trump has also repeatedly suggested - Pompeo said he did not disbelieve the theory, claiming “the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade”.

But last week, the US intelligence community stated that it agreed with a scientific consensus that the virus was not manmade or modified.

When asked about that assessment by US intelligence that it agreed with a scientific consensus that the virus was not manmade or modified. Pompeo reversed course, saying he agreed with the intelligence analysis and had “no reason to doubt” its accuracy.

 

[DetectedMotion]

Just as I don't think drunk driving should be a crime, so clearly I think one should only be in trouble if they actually spread the virus from themselves to someone else.

If you don't care about....what's the word? Oh yeah, if you don't care about being responsible for your actions, then civility won't get a chance.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

The Google tracker reports the number of new cases reported. They're real numbers. On May 1st, both Georgia and Texas reported the highest number of new cases in almost three weeks. That's not a normal variance, is it?

May 1st was actually the highest number of cases so far in Texas.

But that's not the whole story. April 29th only had 43 fewer cases. What's more, the day on which cases are reported aren't necessarily the same as the day on which the people tested actually tested positive. There can be lags and delays, and those aren't always smooth. Furthermore, the number of cases is, obviously, an artefact of how much testing is being done. Fewer tests being done = fewer cases recorded, regardless of whether or not there are a larger or smaller number of actual cases. Just look at how the number of cases/deaths seems to go down a huge amount on the weekend almost everywhere in the entire world. That's not because fewer people catch it or die of it on the weekend.

This is the same thing that crime statistics can fall afoul of. If the police get better at detecting a certain crime they can fight it better and thereby reduce the amount of that crime happening - but because they've got better at detecting it they're recording more and it seems like the figure has gone up rather than down.

The number of reported cases can be a useful yardstick by which to measure long-term trends, when paired with data on how much testing is being done, but you really can't point to a specific day and say "there were x number of cases on this day, and that single figure is significant".

You also haven't said when the states re-opened. Bear in mind that people can take up to 2 weeks to become symptomatic, and it can be another week before they need admission to hospital. So you want to be looking for the effect on cases of re-opening about 2 weeks after the actual re-opening, and on deaths (a more accurate measure of the virus' spread) about 4 weeks later.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Article related to this:

https://wwmt.com/news/coronavirus/michigan-has-the-nations-highest-covid-19-death-rate

There's no definitive answer on why the death rate is so high for Michigan, but the most interesting fact from the article is that Kent County (Grand Rapids, the fastest growing city with lots and lots of new money) and Genessee County (Flint - really major poverty) each had exactly 1600 confirmed cases at the time the article was written, but Genessee County had 162 deaths, compared to Kent County's 36.

Until we find out which states are hiding cases, which simply don't have enough tests thus aren't counting all cases, and until people are using new cases from 2 weeks prior to compare to deaths, these numbers have little meaning.

Maybe Kent County has a newer outbreak, deaths will show up in a couple weeks.

That's not to say economics isn't playing a big role here. It doesn't mean race isn't. But there's definitely no definitive answer.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What does Pompeo think? (Or, does Pompeo think?)

“I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan,” Pompeo said, when asked about Trump’s claim this week to have seen intelligence confirming the theory that Covid-19 was man-made and did not originate in bats and find its way to humans via a “wet market”, as is generally accepted.

"Pompeo added: “The best experts so far seem to think it was man-made. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.”

Then the exchange with This Week host Martha Raddatz got confusing, as to what Pompeo does or does not think. This is from ABC’s transcript:

RADDATZ: Your Office of the [Director of National Intelligence] says the consensus, the scientific consensus [is that the virus] was not man-made or genetically modified.

POMPEO: That’s right. I agree with that. Yeah. I’ve seen their analysis. I’ve seen the summary that you saw that was released publicly. I have no reason to doubt that that is accurate..."

All of them, McEnany especially, just lie without flinching.

 

[Babbylonian]

When asked about an unproven theory that the virus was manmade - a notion President Donald Trump has also repeatedly suggested - Pompeo said he did not disbelieve the theory, claiming “the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade”.

But last week, the US intelligence community stated that it agreed with a scientific consensus that the virus was not manmade or modified.

When asked about that assessment by US intelligence that it agreed with a scientific consensus that the virus was not manmade or modified. Pompeo reversed course, saying he agreed with the intelligence analysis and had “no reason to doubt” its accuracy.

Keep in mind that in the Trump administration "the best experts" are the ones who will say what Trump wants them to say without the slightest regard for the truth.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Libertarians always put me in mind of American settlers of the west: "I'm independent and strong and go my own way without outside help or interference....OMG Indians SAVE ME, FEDERAL TROOPS! Also can I have some money and special treatment."

I used to talk to a libertarian on another board and I swear to God he absolutely 100% could not understand the concept of giving a **** about anybody other than yourself. And I don't mean "oh, he was a horrible, mean person", I mean the idea was completely alien to him.

As an example, he once expressed the opinion that people should not be allowed to wear revealing clothes in public unless they are good-looking. Odd position to hold for a libertarian, I know, but there you go. If you were overweight (he hadn't given consideration to disabled people or people with deformities or blemishes of some kind and handwaved that away without actually saying that it was okay for them to go out in public) you had to cover up, no matter how hot it was outside. I advocated for the position that people should be able to wear what they wanted and if he found other people bad-looking then that was his problem and not theirs.

And for about a day of discussing this he kept assuming that I must be fat to be arguing for the position that I was and that I didn't understand how hard he worked to make sure that he looked good enough to go outside wearing revealing clothes. I told him numerous times that I wasn't overweight and, due to working out for an hour a day, running 4 miles a day, and working a job that involved a fair bit of heavy lifting and carrying, I was actually not unfit at all. And it simply didn't sink in. I was arguing for fat people, so therefore I must myself be fat. Because why would I argue for a position that didn't benefit me personally?

And on and on and on it went, every single conversation with him he assumed that if you held a position it must be because it benefited you personally, and it was almost impossible to get it through his head that other ways of looking at the world existed. It always took page after page of repetition before he got it, and he never, ever learnt. It was always straight back to square 1 every single time.

He simply couldn't understand the idea. Again, I don't mean that in a nasty way, it's just that you might as well have been telling him that you were a sentient rice pudding as far as his ability to wrap his head around the concept went. His brain seemingly just wasn't wired that way at all.

 

[The Don]

Some people....

In Stillwater, Oklahoma, officials softened a requirement to wear face coverings in stores and restaurants on the same day it went into effect, after people were threatened for trying to enforce it.

City Manager Norman McNickle said a number of local business staff were “threatened with physical violence and showered with verbal abuse” on 1 May - within three hours of the rule’s enactment.

In one case, someone threatened staff with a firearm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...aee60dc68e4706631e469e&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Horatius]

I'm surprised you go even that far. Isn't spreading the virus a consequence of the freedom being exercised? You're just changing a constraint to the past when it's too late anyway. I would have thought a true libertarian would place the entire burden of protection on the recipient.

Hell, if he thinks drunk driving shouldn't be illegal, then spreading the virus is practically a moral act. Drunk driving involves at least two intentional choices: To Drink, and then, To Drive. But a virus? You don't choose to get a virus. And you don't choose to shed that virus. Those are just natural processes that you have no control over. Might as well make falling down illegal!

 

[Meadmaker]

Today, former president George W. Bush issued a call to work together and avoid partisanship in battling the coronavirus, and Trump responded with a partisan tweet asking where Bush was during the Democratic impeachment hoax.


Trump is totally unhinged. The strain of the job is getting to him, and he should be replaced. I know politics doesn't work this way, but the GOP should dump him as their nominee. He's unfit.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Bush is obviously a RINO