Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

The graphics illustrate a graph of deaths over time. It's meant to illustrate deaths over time. So, the answer to your question is 'no'.

And yet it makes it appear as if Iceland for two days had many more deaths than Sweden, in spite of the country having had no more than eight deaths in total so far!

 

[uke2se]

And yet it makes it appear as if Iceland for two days had many more deaths than Sweden, in spite of the country having had no more than eight deaths in total so far!

I'm no matematician or statistician, but that's not how I read that graphic.

 

[dann]

That's not him disagreeing with me. That's him answering a question about herd immunity.

And yet

Den svenske corona-strateg Anders Tegnell erkender, at man skal være bedre til at beskytte de ældre, men at man arbejder mod flokimmunitet.
Den svenske corona-strateg: Vi kan skimte en form for flokimmunitet (TV2.dk, April 16, 2020)

The Swedish corona strategist Anders Tegnell acknowledges that they should be better at protecting the elderly, but that they are working towards herd immunity.
The Swedish corona strategist: We can make out a kind of herd immunity

 

[dann]

So, Denmark is now loosening up the lockdown. First, schools for young children, then hairdressers and tattoo parlours.

Coronavirus: Denmark to reopen hairdressers as it loosens lockdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52322249

Yes, schools for young children, the first five years, started this week, and hairdressers will be allowed to open up again next week. I didn't know about tattoo parlours, but I also haven't felt that I was badly in need of a tattoo these past few weeks - or ever.
I guess that the tattooist as well as the tattooee will be able to wear masks. The hairdresser, too. But it will be difficult for people getting their hair cut to do so. Maybe hairdryers can be refurbished to suck the germs away from the working space ... and then later turned into ventilators when the hairdressers get infected in spite of their masks.

 

[dann]

I'm no matematician or statistician, but that's not how I read that graphic.

Me neither, which is why I wrote, "... make it seem as if ..."

 

[dann]

Til maj vil tre til fire procent af svenskerne være immune overfor coronavirus, vurderer Anders Tegnell.
Selvom der nu er 1.400 svenskere, som har mistet livet til coronavirus, mener Sveriges statsepidemiolog, Anders Tegnell, at landets kamp mod virusset er på rette vej.
Nemlig mod flokimmunitet
(...)
I Sverige håber Folkhälsomyndigheten på, at man er bedre rustet til at håndtere anden bølge af coronasmitte, når den kommer til efteråret, hvis flest muligt inden da har haft sygdommen og derved er immune.
Hvor mange, der skal smittes for at have den effekt, har Anders Tegnell også et bud på.
- Det er når op mod 15-20 procent af befolkningen har haft sygdommen, at man for alvor ser en påvirkning på spredningshastigheden, siger han.
Han påpeger også, at han egentlig ville foretrække, hvis endnu flere var immune, så Sverige bedre kan stå imod den anden bølge.
Statsepidemiolog: Sverige sigter efter flokimmunitet (DR.dk, April 18, 2020)

In May, three to four percent of Swedes will be immune to the coronavirus, Anders Tegnell estimates.
Even though more than 1,400 Swedes have lost their lives to coronavirus, Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell thinks that the country's battle against the virus is on the right track, i.e. towards herd immunity.
(...)
In Sweden the Department of Health hopes that they will be better suited for the second wave of corona infections when it begins in Autumn if as many as possible have had the disease by then and are consequently immune.
Anders Tegnell also has a claim about how many people need to be infected for this effect to be achieved.
- When about 15 to 20 percent of the population have had the disease, that is the point where you really see an impact on the speed with which the disease spreads, he says.
He also states that he would actually prefer even more to have become immune so that Sweden can resist the second wave better.
State epidemiologist: Sweden is aiming at herd immunity


Unfortunately, Anders Tegnell's preference for even more having become immune implies that even more have fallen ill and even more have died!
He actually seems to be one of those guys who think that: infection = vaccination!

 

[Rolfe]

You can't actually get herd immunity by letting a virus loose to do as it pleases. It's very clear that only vaccination can achieve this.

I would have thought that anyone bright enough to tie their own shoelaces would realise the big flaw in the assertion that the best way to protect a population from a deadly virus is to let most people get it. But apparently not.

 

[dann]

I haven't yet seen evidence that Anders Tegnell can tie his own shoelaces.

 

[dann]

One hour ago: 111 new corona deaths in Sweden since yesterday. Now 1,511, up from 1,400.

Inrapporterade siffror från Folkhälsomyndigheten, lördagen den 18 april:
• 111 nya dödsfall i covid-19 i Sverige.
• Det totala dödsantalet i Sverige stiger därmed till 1 511.
• 1 054 coronasmittade personer har fått intensivvård i Sverige.
• Folkhälsomyndigheten rapporterar in att 13 822 personer har testats positivt för viruset i Sverige.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, April 18, 2020)

The region Skåne is doing much better than other parts of Sweden. So far, they have only had 42 corona deaths. Stockholm 897:

So far Skåne County has been doing better Stockholm and Western Götaland during the corona pandemic.
The regional council thinks that the reason is the very tough precautions that were taken very soon:
- We banned visits to all hospitals early on, and many of our 33 municipalities followed our lead immediately after, says Carl Johan Sonesson (from the party Moderaterna).
Skåne not as hard hit as Stockholm: Introduced tough precautions (Aftonbladet, April 18, 2020)

 

[dann]

In Denmark, a test center consisting of tents is being erected by the police in one of the largest parks in Copenhagen, next to the National Hospital:
Hvide test-telte skyder op: Rigspolitiet graver og bygger i Fælledparken (DR.dk, April 18, 2020)

And in other parts of the country, too: Testtelte skyder op flere steder i landet (TV2.dk, April 18, 2020)

And Tivoli, the amusement park in the center of Copenhagen, is being turned into a kindergarten because day-care centres are at full capacity! Daginstitutionerne er fyldt op: Nu skal børn passes i Tivoli (DR.dk, April 18, 2020)

Denmark has had 10 coronavirus deaths since yesterday. The total is now 346.

 

[dann]

The confidence in Tegnell and Löfven is growing (Aftonbladet.se, April 19, 2020)

Sweden’s neighbours seem to be astonished to see that ...

… 71 percent say that they have great confidence in the Public Health Agency. That is the institution responsible for the Swedish strategy in the fight against the coronavirus, which is led by Anders Tegnell. It is well-known that Sweden has a different approach than almost all the rest of the world.
(…)
In the previous poll, the Swedish government had the support of 53 percent. That is up from 34 percent in March.
Swedes have confidence in the government (Aftenposten.no, April 19, 2020)

My translations from Norwegian and Swedish.

Having overtaken Ireland and Luxembourg, the USA is now right behind Sweden on the list of deaths per million:
Sverige 153
USA 119

However, it took the USA 49 days to get there, Sweden only 38.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Is anyone looking at these numbers taking into account the timeline of introduction of the virus into the country. Comparing it to Italy which saw large numbers early on, even Spain's high numbers were delayed compared to Italy.

From Wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was confirmed to have reached Sweden on 31 January 2020, when a woman returning from Wuhan tested positive.

Yes but:

On 26 February, following outbreaks in Italy and in Iran, multiple travel-related clusters appeared in Sweden. Community transmission was confirmed on 9 March in the Stockholm region. Since then, individuals in every län (county) have tested positive for COVID-19. The first death was reported on 11 March in Stockholm, a case of community transmission.

Compared to Italy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

An ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a novel infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first confirmed to have spread to Italy on 31 January 2020, when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive for the virus.[2] One week later an Italian man repatriated back to Italy from the city of Wuhan, China, was hospitalised and confirmed as the third case in Italy.[3] A cluster of cases was later detected, starting with 16 confirmed cases in Lombardy on 21 February,[4] and 60 additional cases and the first deaths on 22 February.[5] By the beginning of March, the virus had spread to all regions of Italy.[6]

Other variables are population density and cultural variables.

The point is just that we need to look at multiple variables here and be cautious comparing countries.

So far Sweden has failed to protect the elderly, something that supposedly their method was supposed to do.

 

[dann]

Interesting comparison of Norway, Denmark and Sweden:

I have taken the numbers from these curves comparing different countries:
Døde siden første dødsfald (TV2, April 19, 2020) = (Total number of) deaths since first death

Day No: 08 - 11 - 14 - 17 -- 20 -- 23 --- 26 --- 29 --- 32 ---- 35 ---- 38
Number of deaths:
Norway: 07 - 14 - 23 - 39 -- 59 -- 76 -- 108 - 128 - 150 -- 164
Denmark:15 - 25 - 43 - 76 -110 - 170 - 214 - 254 - 292 -- 330 -- 355
Sweden: 11 - 21 - 62 - 105 -180 -358 - 477 - 793 - 899 -1203 - 1511

I wasn't aware that Denmark was ahead of Sweden at the beginning of the pandemic.

Population:
Norway: 5,378,857
Denmark: 5,771,876
Sweden: 10,036,379

 

[dann]

So far Sweden has failed to protect the elderly, something that supposedly their method was supposed to do.

They will be protected by herd immunity when they are all dead.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Interesting comparison of Norway, Denmark and Sweden:

I have taken the numbers from these curves comparing different countries:
Døde siden første dødsfald (TV2, April 19, 2020) = (Total number of) deaths since first death

Day No: 08 - 11 - 14 - 17 -- 20 -- 23 --- 26 --- 29 --- 32 ---- 35 ---- 38
Number of deaths:
Norway: 07 - 14 - 23 - 39 -- 59 -- 76 -- 108 - 128 - 150 -- 164
Denmark:15 - 25 - 43 - 76 -110 - 170 - 214 - 254 - 292 -- 330 -- 355
Sweden: 11 - 21 - 62 - 105 -180 -358 - 477 - 793 - 899 -1203 - 1511

I wasn't aware that Denmark was ahead of Sweden at the beginning of the pandemic.

Population:
Norway: 5,378,857
Denmark: 5,771,876
Sweden: 10,036,379

Excellent data, thanks. Sweden's population is twice as large but then at the end the number of deaths goes well beyond double the other countries.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Excellent data,thanks.

Yes, we should all thank those Swedes who made the ultimate sacrifice to give us that information.

What Sweden is doing is very important, and we shouldn't discourage them from it. If every country had responded to the virus appropriately the denialists would argue we didn't need to, and we wouldn't have any data to refute it. But Sweden is proving them wrong.

Once again, thank you Sweden for taking one for the team!

 

[Rolfe]

Oh, it's not just Sweden...

 

[Arcade22]

The confidence in Tegnell and Löfven is growing (Aftonbladet.se, April 19, 2020)

Sweden’s neighbours seem to be astonished to see that ...


My translations from Norwegian and Swedish.

Having overtaken Ireland and Luxembourg, the USA is now right behind Sweden on the list of deaths per million:
Sverige 153
USA 119

However, it took the USA 49 days to get there, Sweden only 38.

Have not the newspapers that you love to cite explain that comparing death and infection rates between different countries based on official statistics is not a good idea unless you can be certain that they are being recorded in the same way?

 

[Arcade22]

So far Sweden has failed to protect the elderly, something that supposedly their method was supposed to do.

I don't know where you are getting your information from but the Swedish "method" is the same as everyone else. The only the significant difference in term of strategy is that Sweden has so not enacted widespread "lockdown" and curfews. Beyond that Sweden is doing just as well, if not even much better than many other European countries are.

Then again it's pretty hard to compare when some countries don't even count the dead in care homes.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don't know where you are getting your information from but the Swedish "method" is the same as everyone else. The only the significant difference in term of strategy is that Sweden has so not enacted widespread "lockdown" and curfews. Beyond that Sweden is doing just as well, if not even much better than many other European countries are.

Then again it's pretty hard to compare when some countries don't even count the dead in care homes.

I get it about comparisons with other countries. But comparing 3 Scandinavian countries who saw their first cases at similar timeframes is surely valid.

As for where did I hear about the Swedish method, we've been discussing it in this thread. There was a claim by some expert that the same thing was recommended in the UK, protect the vulnerable and let everyone else get it. But shortly after that published analysis the expert withdrew that recommendation and recommended a lock down.

There are a number of articles linked to in this thread where the Swedes hoped to protect the vulnerable of which the elderly are included, while they let the virus take its natural course. It's not working.


But by all means, being on the front line there, you tell us what is going on. What is your evidence Sweden is doing so well without a lockdown?

Again, I'm not using any other EU country comparison except what Dann posted. I said, "The point is just that we need to look at multiple variables here and be cautious comparing countries."

Just today the news was a nursing home in Sweden had a serious outbreak. I watch a lot of German (DK) and other international news sources on TV. I'll try to find a web source.