Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[xjx388]

South Korea is reporting that 91 patients have tested positive again after having been thought cured of the disease.

As before there are a few possibilities:

1) False negatives (or presumably false positives, although I guess that is not as likely)

2) Re-activation of the virus

3) Reinfection.

The latter would presumably be the most worrying, if true.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X

We retested our employee Wednesday. Came back positive on Friday. She was first positive over two weeks ago and the County Health Department released her from quarantine. We aren’t going to let her back to work until we know what that positive means. The CDC guideline is that she needs 2 negatives 24 hours apart to be released back to work. She has never been symptomatic.

I guess it’s possible that she is still shedding, but one of our docs did some research and it’s possible that she just has some left over genetic material -enough to be positive, but not viable to infect.. There’s a lot more to be understood about this thing...

 

[Bob001]

An account of how early action by the mayor of San Francisco -- in the face of outraged opposition -- saved the city from the fate of NYC, New Orleans, etc.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-san-francisco-london-breed/609808/

 

[Trebuchet]

Although it could just be a reporting anomaly due to the Easter holiday, today's numbers are way down for the US. I pay particular attention to my home state of Michigan, and you have to go back to March 26 to find a lower number than today's number of new cases.

I have a suspicion that part of it is a reporting issue, and we'll see higher numbers tomorrow, but the trend has definitely been down.

I've noticed that is fairly typical for the weekends.

 

[zooterkin]

What's the rationale behind countries talking of reducing lockdown restrictions? Are there models suggesting it's a good plan? Isn't it likely to result in a resurgence of cases?

Yes, any reduction in lockdown will lead to more cases, unless the virus has completely been eliminated.

It may depend on the numbers; if they have been testing (unlike the UK), they may have an idea of what percentage of the population has already been exposed to the virus, which helps with planning.

In addition, countries have had time to put more facilities in place so they may be able to cope with the expected higher numbers from a resurgence of cases.

It also depends on how they plan to reduce the lockdown restrictions; if they are managed in some way, they again may be able to cope with the expected increase.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Do you have the link? I'd like to read the whole study.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[pipelineaudio]

Just to emphasise for our US readers, the prime minister was in the NHS hospital, just the same as anyone else in the UK might be. (OK he might be in a single room, but the care would otherwise be identical to any other person.)

Just to emphasize for our foreign readers, I have some swampland in florida for sale as well as a bridge in brooklyn

In case that's actually true and not just politically true, that would be a wonder for humanity.

 

[pipelineaudio]

An account of how early action by the mayor of San Francisco -- in the face of outraged opposition -- saved the city from the fate of NYC, New Orleans, etc.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-san-francisco-london-breed/609808/

Excellent! I'm waiting for all the "see I told you we didn't need to do anything, it wasn't so bad"

They do the right thing and they will be damned for it, but I'm glad they did the right thing!

 

[Bob001]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I note that the chart is interactive, and the death rate in the U.S. is considerably higher than in Panama, Romania, Venezuela and India. That makes me suspect that the quality of care isn't the only relevant factor.

 

[Darat]

Just to emphasize for our foreign readers, I have some swampland in florida for sale as well as a bridge in brooklyn

In case that's actually true and not just politically true, that would be a wonder for humanity.

It is true.

ETA he was in this hospital https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Thomas'_Hospital?wprov=sfti1 https://maps.apple.com/?ll=51.49910...AguK/SUAxG9gqweJwvr85gLdAguK/SUBBG9gqweJwvr8=

There are very few non NHS hospitals in the UK that have extensive ICU.

 

[Horhang]

I'm still concerned about the food thing. What do you guys think is a safe way to disinfect plastic gatorade bottles? I was washing them by hand with dishsoap, but I figure I'm probably missing a lot of micro-spots. Would soaking them in soapy water be effective?

You can always soak them in a solution of bleach and water, then let them air dry. Choose your concentration.

http://https://www.dhhs.nh.gov/dphs/holu/documents/hom-sani.pdf

 

[a_unique_person]

Australia's chief medical officer warns a vaccine may never be found.

No coronavirus vaccine has ever been made. I would guess the incentive has not been there yet to try too hard.

 

[Minoosh]

Which makes Hawaii an absolute terror! Multiple three generation, morbidly obese, anti-science families living under one roof.

I'm not sure anything in the U.S. compares to the slums of Mumbai in terms of people crowded together.

 

[angrysoba]

Although it could just be a reporting anomaly due to the Easter holiday, today's numbers are way down for the US. I pay particular attention to my home state of Michigan, and you have to go back to March 26 to find a lower number than today's number of new cases.

I have a suspicion that part of it is a reporting issue, and we'll see higher numbers tomorrow, but the trend has definitely been down.

Down for the UK too.

The swedish numbers are lagging aswell. The true numbers will come by tuesday according to our state epidemiologist.

Its traditation for people in Sweden to travel north and go skiing during easter. But our government have strongly recommended not to do such trips this year. I guess not everyone has been listening though...

I've noticed that is fairly typical for the weekends.

Yeah, I’ve noticed that the Easter weekend seems to have been pretty quiet in tes or reported casualties but this almost certainly is down to deaths and cases being unreported until later.

Japan also has weekend reductions. It seems during the week, the numbers increase, everyone gets worried then the weekend hits and some people start allowing themselves to believe the curve has flattened. Not for long though as Japan’s numbers are still climbing.

 

[novaphile]

I agree with these concerns.

All it takes is one person, in the reporting chain, to be not at work on a weekend, and the numbers decrease.

 

[EHocking]

That's like getting rid of cars to prevent car deaths.

There's probably a better middle ground.

I was not being serious, but the 70+% of tourist income being domestically generated is interesting. As a strategy to restart local and state economies, lifting travel bans within the country could be safer wrt COVID-19 reinfection and/or spreading that allowing international visitors.

 

[novaphile]

Of course, where the numbers are reported correctly, i.e. this cases by date, and fatalities by date, we see a gap in reports, which is caught up, rather than a gap in the numbers.

I've just had a quick look at Australia's numbers, and can't see any evidence of decreases on weekends.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

I note that the chart is interactive, and the death rate in the U.S. is considerably higher than in Panama, Romania, Venezuela and India. That makes me suspect that the quality of care isn't the only relevant factor.

How deaths are reported is certainly an important factor. We have seen numerous reports that deaths at home and/or in nursing homes are not reported as covid-19 fatalities, even if they die from respiratory failure. This will certainly be different in different countries.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

As critical as i have been of our response, if I have to pick which is more likely to save my life?

[IMGw=800]https://i.imgur.com/NbglSyi.png[/IMGw]

And as usual Germany is annoying everybody else with their competence and efficiency.

 

[The Atheist]

Australia's chief medical officer warns a vaccine may never be found.

No coronavirus vaccine has ever been made. I would guess the incentive has not been there yet to try too hard.

They were pretty close though: developed a vaccine but never got to go as the outbreak died out.

It might have been a missed opportunity, because if it had worked, given the similarity between SARS 1.0 & SARS 2.0, it could have been useful with or without re-engineering.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...s-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

 

[Roger Ramjets]

In this very thread. More than once. Am I supposed to reread the entire thread to find it for you?

You made the claim, so you supply the evidence. If you can't...