Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

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Cases are rising very quickly here in Japan, now though.

And now they have no hope of tracing all the clusters.

I think Japan needs to be ready for a sudden spike of deaths in the next week or two.
 
Well if the forums amateur epidemiologists recommendations are anything to go by the best way is simply to copy the countries doing well without even considering wheter the situations are even similar. If Japan does something and it is working (at least for the moment) then obviously it must have the same effect here.

Who cares what experts, with an intimate picture of what is feasible, think? They are COMPLETE IDIOTS. You don't even need to take a basic introductory university course in biology to see that it's obvious, based on this graph I just saw on facebook, that we must rally to the great Japanese way immediately!

It's not just forum amateurs.

The prime minister, Stefan Löfven, has urged Swedes to behave “as adults” and not to spread “panic or rumours”.

Panic, though, is exactly what many within Sweden’s scientific and medical community are starting to feel. A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-sweden-coronavirus-stoicism-lockdown-europe
 

First of all, most of the people who signed that had no education in any field relevant to fighting contagious diseases. Having a PHD in underwater basketweaving or gender science does not mean that your opinions are of any value whatsoever.

Secondly, they don't have a clue as to what the problem is. It's not that they haven't been testing for infected people, it's that there was no mass testing capability at all. If anything it's shocking that educated people who should know better somehow fail to realise that you can't make decisions based on what will have the best outcomes instead of what is actually achievable.
 
First of all, most of the people who signed that had no education in any field relevant to fighting contagious diseases. Having a PHD in underwater basketweaving or gender science does not mean that your opinions are of any value whatsoever.

Secondly, they don't have a clue as to what the problem is. It's not that they haven't been testing for infected people, it's that there was no mass testing capability at all. If anything it's shocking that educated people who should know better somehow fail to realise that you can't make decisions based on what will have the best outcomes instead of what is actually achievable.

Good luck. You'll need it.
 
If anything, it's shocking that you can consider the fact "that there was no mass testing capability at all" to be the best excuse in the world for not immediately setting about to getting mass testing capability and in the meantime go on lockdown until that mass testing capability is achieved.

Achieving mass testing capability does not require that a
country is under a totalitarian state that can allocate an almost infinite amount of resources according to the whims of its leadership.


And that you are uneducated is no excuse at all for thinking that it is.
 
That's mostly because, unlike the USA, Norway has done aggressive testing.

As per Worldometer, Norway has tested 19 528 per million citizens, while the USA has tested 4 933.
...
It was the aggressive testing that made it look so bad, but it was also that testing that made us come out ahead of the curve.
Massive testing is likely the most important factor in successful Corona response countries, along with what countries do with that data. It is also likely that countries who are able to do massive testing also have made the health care investments to be most prepared to do something effective with that data.

Of course at some point countries will have to open up again. The approach in Sweden is very likely going to make them more safe and prepared when they fully open up again compared to other countries, but it comes at the cost of more deaths now vs. more deaths later. They also have a good enough health system to go through that managed pain now.

Basically I think that almost all countries are going to be in the situation that Sweden is in, but I worry that they might have burned through much of their PPE by the time they get there. The most important factor is if those countries can do massive testing and have sanitizer/PPE/social safety engineering to keep businesses run safely when they do open up again.
 
If anything, it's shocking that you can consider the fact "that there was no mass testing capability at all" to be the best excuse in the world for not immediately setting about to getting mass testing capability and in the meantime go on lockdown until that mass testing capability is achieved.

Yes because they can just pull out enough labs to cover every 30,000 residents out of their magic hat. The fact that every single country on earth is also busy doing that only makes it so much easier to buy the necessary equipment, supplies and tools to do it.

And that you are uneducated is no excuse at all for thinking that it is.

You know what, when you get a university degree in epidemiology I'll take your criticism seriously. Until then take your uninformed nonsense to Facebook or the comment section of your trashy Danish tabloids.
 
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As of this post, Norway has more confirmed corona virus cases per capita than the US: 1 confirmed case for every ~950 persons in Norway. 1 confirmed case for every ~1,050 persons in the US


And as of this post, the USA (51 per million) now has more confirmed deaths per capita than Norway (20 per million). The USA also has 466.299 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections, Norway has 6.219, and since hardly anybody in the USA is being tested, not even people who suspect that they've come down with Covid-19, it is fair to assume that millions of Americans are now infected.

What do those numbers tell you, Baylor?

They tell me that Norway is doing its best to test and then isolate as many as possible, and that the USA is headed by a lying, unscrupulous dimwit.
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, April 10, 2020)


The USA now has 60 Covid-19 deaths per million, Norway has 22. The USA also has 514,415 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections, Norway has 6,403.


Baylor? ... Baylor? ... Baylor?
 
I'm still trying to process the fact that human beings who can apparently tie their own shoelaces seem to think that "the best way to protect people from this virus is for most of them to get it" is actually a rational statement.
 
I'm still trying to process the fact that human beings who can apparently tie their own shoelaces seem to think that "the best way to protect people from this virus is for most of them to get it" is actually a rational statement.


It most certainly isn't, but in another thread some people actually argued that infection = vaccination!
I guess it works much the same way as a fractured skull = wearing a helmet.
 
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Yes because they can just pull out enough labs to cover every 30,000 residents out of their magic hat. The fact that every single country on earth is also busy doing that only makes it so much easier to buy the necessary equipment, supplies and tools to do it.


If you were ill prepared to begin with, and many countries were, for whatever reason, you should take advantage of a temporary lockdown and protect people from infections in this way while you get busy getting hold of the stuff needed for testing.

You know what, when you get a university degree in epidemiology I'll take your criticism seriously. Until then take your uninformed nonsense to Facebook or the comment section of your trashy Danish tabloids.


Being wrong is no reason to get this upset. You should do something about your obsession with Facebook and learn to distinguish between tabloids and reliable news media.


Recent Covid-19 news from Sweden

Coronakrisen visar att det var fel att avveckla beredskapslagren i Sverige.
Det menar socialminister Lena Hallengren, som nu öppnar för mer inhemsk produktion av skyddsutrustning till läkare och sjuksköterskor.
– Vården måste bli mer robust, säger hon.
Ministern: Ett misstag att stänga beredskapslagren (Aftonbladet, April 11, 2020)


Flera miljoner ansiktsmasker brändes på regeringens order.
Under loppet av några få år avskaffade Sverige de beredskapslager som tagit decennier att bygga upp – och i coronapandemin har bristen på skyddsutrustning blivit akut.
– Vi är glada över att vi i Finland inte har gjort samma sak, säger Tomi Lounema, tills nyligen chef för finska Försörjningsberedskapscentralen.
Sverige stängde beredskapslagren och brände miljoner ansiktsmasker (Aftonbladet, April 11, 2020)


– I tältet finns inget vatten eller avlopp. Det är trångt och patienterna måste ligga betydligt tätare än inne på en vanlig avdelning. Dessutom är ventilationen dålig och respiratorerna är mycket omoderna, säger ytterligare en överläkare.
SVT Nyheter Väst har pratat med flera överläkare som ger en samstämmig bild av den kritik som finns. De vill alla vara anonyma eftersom de menar att kritiken är mycket känslig på sjukhuset.
Överläkare slår larm om tältet på Östra: ”Riskerar människors liv” (SVT.se, April 11, 2020)
 
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It most certainly isn't, but in another thread some people actually argued that infection = vaccination!


I have been blocking a lot of people on Twitter these past few days. Idiots either pushing the point of view that the virus is essentially impossible to avoid (it's actually ridiculously easy to avoid getting it), or that there is no post-exposure immunity at all, or that the only way to protect people from the virus is for them all to get it. Sometimes all at once. One guy was insisting it was "airborne HIV".

They bombard you with an almost random shower of links to newspaper articles, preliminary non-scrutineered papers they don't understand, and badly-written blogs. They won't listen to any reasonable point of view that doesn't align with their pet theory. And all the time they're obscuring the fact that this virus is far from invincible, there is every reason to believe it can be kept squashed down at a low level until a vaccine is available, and any state that doesn't do that is basically killing its citizens.

Twice in my career, in quick succession (2007 and 2012) I was involved in operations to keep novel viral diseases of livestock that had emerged in Europe out of Scotland. The first one wiped out sheep production in Belgium and the Netherlands. The second was a brand new orthobunyavirus that had never before been seen in livestock before it suddenly appeared in Germany. Each time we kept up the fight for a year, and each time a vaccine then appeared and saved the day. Even to the orthobunyavirus.

The idea that we should simply assume that this can't be done for the present agent, even though it's already been shown that the majority of those infected seroconvert to the virus and that antibody appears to be protective, is absolute defeatism. The countries that win Covid-19 will be the ones which kept the largest proportion of their population alive by the time the vaccine appears. It's not going to be us, or America, or Sweden, or the Netherlands. New Zealand is a good one to bet on. So is Iceland. Maybe even South Korea.
 
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If you were ill prepared to begin with, and many countries were, for whatever reason, you should take advantage of a temporary lockdown and protect people from infections in this way while you get busy getting hold of the stuff needed for testing.

The largest source of excess deaths, especially compared to neighboring countries, appear to come from elderly care homes. Elderly individuals who live in their own homes, whether apartments or houses, are far less likely to have been infected or died.

A lockdown would not have stopped these individuals from being infected because, with all likelihood, they were not infected by strangers walking into care-homes and coughing in their face. They were almost certainly infected by coming into close contact with the personnel working there that happened to be infected and due to the lack of protective equipment they would be contagious. Some people kept working even-though they felt sick.

It's not the responsibility of the central government nor the public health agency to make sure that the municipalities, whom are the ones responsible for the care of the elderly, are adequately equipped or trained to care for the elderly without significant risk of infection during a pandemic. That responsibility lies almost completely in the hands of said municipalities. Cutting costs on emergency preparedness is not something you squarely blame the central government for.

Being wrong is no reason to get this upset. You should do something about your obsession with Facebook and learn to distinguish between tabloids and reliable news media.

You are the one that claimed Sweden's lead epidemiologist was a complete idiot based on your uninformed and uneducated interpretation of a graph your found in a newspaper. So don't try pretending that you are right about anything. Seriously, you know next to nothing and yet you pretend that you know what you are talking about.

Recent Covid-19 news from Sweden

You do realize that most people don't speak Swedish here so why don't you actually translate it?
 
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I would like to thank you all for the concern you are showing the citizens of Sweden. Thus far, we're managing. Will probably get worse, but I'm confident we'll get through it. I hope you guys are managing as well.

Happy Easter, everyone and stay safe.
 
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You too, uke2se. It sounds as if you're going offline for the Easter holidays.


A new article compares the Swedish and Danish corona strategies:
Danmark og Sverige gik hver sin vej, da coronakrisen ramte - sådan er det gået (TV2, April 12, 2020)
Denmark and Sweden went their separate ways when the corona crisis hit them - this is how it played out

The article is very long, and it's in Danish, obviously, but it is full of the kinds of graphs that Arcade22 detests, so I think that even people without any knowledge of Scandinavian languages will be able to get most of the very educational facts and figures.
The two guys at the top of the page are the Danish and Swedish top virus-pandemic experts.
Notice the comparison "Indbyggere per kvadratkilometer" = inhabitants per square kilometer: Denmark:136 Sweden:25.
"Bekræftede tilfælde" = Confirmed cases. Denmark has tested comparatively more people.
"Aktiemarkerne" (should actually have been Aktiemarkederne) = stockmarkets.

By the way, I wish they had included Norway in the comparison. If they had, Denmark would no longer look like the beacon of scientific enlightenment and efficiency the way it does in the comparison with Sweden.
 
The largest source of excess deaths, especially compared to neighboring countries, appear to come from elderly care homes. Elderly individuals who live in their own homes, whether apartments or houses, are far less likely to have been infected or died.

A lockdown would not have stopped these individuals from being infected because, with all likelihood, they were not infected by strangers walking into care-homes and coughing in their face. They were almost certainly infected by coming into close contact with the personnel working there that happened to be infected and due to the lack of protective equipment[/I] they would be contagious. Some people kept working even-though they felt sick.
It seems to give you some degree of comfort that the majority of coronavirus deaths were in nursing homes. You keep mentioning it. And again you return to the idea, which you are also quite fond of, that a lockdown would not have stopped those infections. However, your argument for this is spurious, and at this point it probably doesn't surprise anyone that you come up with a strawman: "strangers ... coughing in their face." But you haven't considered the one thing that should have made you wonder since you mention it yourself: the neighboring countries! I don't know about Norway and Finland, but I guess they have probably been doing better than Denmark in this respect as in most others. I do know, however, that the solution in Denmark wasn't to prevent strangers from entering nursing homes but to prevent relatives from doing so. And it has been tough for the elderly as well as for the relative to comply with this, but it seems to have helped. I don't doubt that some old people may have been infected by the staff working at the homes before tests were made more available, but preventing visits from relatives seems to have limited the spread of the virus. And once again: The lack of preventative measures or training is a very bad excuse for infecting the elderly.
It's not the responsibility of the central government nor the public health agency to make sure that the municipalities, whom are the ones responsible for the care of the elderly, are adequately equipped or trained to care for the elderly without significant risk of infection during a pandemic. That responsibility lies almost completely in the hands of said municipalities. Cutting costs on emergency preparedness is not something you squarely blame the central government for.
You're probably not even aware that you are adopting another one of Trump's favourite arguments: It wasn't me, I'm not to blame, it wasn't the Federal Government! It was the states/municipalities. They are responsible, they should have taken care of the problem ... "almost exclusively." I have no idea how responsibility is distributed in the Swedish way of doing things, and I have no idea why you side with "the central government" and "the public health agency" on this - I suppose you aren't married to Stefan Löfven or Anders Tegnell. But I also don't really care. It has been obvious that Anders Tegnell was the strategist behind the Swedish way of (not really) tackling the pandemic and that Stefan Löfven, at least until very recently, seemed to follow his advice. If something isn't right about the way that power is distributed between the "central government" and the municipalities, I would criticize the system instead of pushing blame from one to the other.
You are the one that claimed Sweden's lead epidemiologist was a complete idiot based on your uninformed and uneducated interpretation of a graph your found in a newspaper. So don't try pretending that you are right about anything. Seriously, you know next to nothing and yet you pretend that you know what you are talking about.
It's possible that Anders Tegnell is not a complete idiot (nobody's perfect!). Maybe he is just a cynic who doesn't care how many the epidemic in Sweden will kill, but throughout this thread, I've been the one who has presented facts and figures, and you have been the one who has come up with .... nothing whatsoever! Your posts stand out as the most uneducated and uninformed of all, which is probably why you pretend that something was wrong with the facts that I have presented. Even Baylor posted facts that he had come across somewhere. It was obvious that he didn't understand them and it is conspicuous that he hasn't returned, but at least he tried. You, however, have done nothing but appeal to authority, i.e. the central government of Sweden, and use ad hominem.
You do realize that most people don't speak Swedish here so why don't you actually translate it?
Yes, I do know! I hope that you appreciate the three articles. I posted them exclusively for your edification, but if anybody else was interested, Google Translate could probably have rendered them readable in English. And if you feel the need to share them with the others reading this thread, you could actually translate them yourself.
 
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