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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Needlessly snarky, sarcastic, and rude. The outbreak still exists and people are traveling into and out of Wuhan. I don't see how the amount of time that's passed so far would make it wise, if lockdowns are indeed wise, to fully open everything up already.

Time, combined with getting R down to .3 for a couple months is what enabled re-opening Wuhan though significant social distancing remains in place.

Exponential decay works just like exponential growth but in reverse. The shutdown did that. It's just math.

That's also why you will see vastly reduced new deaths in the USA within the next month.
 
Here's another article on the study of cases in Heinsberg, Germany. It has a little more information, but also has some errors, such as confusing the percentage of the entire population who died with the CFR. The principle investigator was quoted as believing that the spread of covid-19 comes almost exclusively from people being in close proximity to an infected person for a "longer period of time" (but no hint as to what constitutes "longer period of time") and that there is an extremely low possibility of being infected by touching a surface that an infected person has touched (therefore, he thinks that shopping would be a low risk activity). It would be nice to see exactly what the study found rather than some reporter's interpretation.

https://www.businessinsider.com/dea...ory-city-5x-less-than-national-average-2020-4

The Guardian's article on this topic quoted the PI as saying "Most infections didn't take place in supermarkets or restaurants", which isn't quite the same as saying that there is little chance of getting infected in a supermarket or restaurant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...l-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus
 
They must be better than nothing at all, if only because they'll stop most droplets from coming in or out.

The only way they're not is if they are identical to no mask at all, and that makes no sense.

Surgical masks do help with droplets going out, which if you re-read my post I actually stated, that it helps to protect others from us if we are infected.

There is little evidence that they help over just keeping your 2-3m distance from other people. They might help if someone comes up and coughs or sneezes on you, but if that happens then the material is likely to get into your eyes anyways, so....

The N-95 type filter masks will help, but only if worn correctly, otherwise the virus can just come in around the edges of the mask. Assuming that you're within the 2-3m danger zone with an infectious individual. This is why Medicial staff really need them more that the general public does.

I posted this Nature letter that indicates coronavirus are strongly attenuated by masks. Also, significant emissions of both droplets and aerosols occurred and were attenuated by masks.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=13046099#post13046099

Note that this study was testing the effects for people spreading virus particles they already had, which I did note in my post as an effective reason to wear a mask, they weren't comparing wearing a mask to effective distancing from other people in the risk of getting an infectious viral load.

So yeah, if you have a virus and absolutely have to leave your home, then yes you should be wearing a mask, not just for this corona virus, but even influenza or rhinovirus caused illnesses.

If you aren't sick however, wearing a mask does not appear to have any benefits over keeping 2-3m from other people, and may actually be less beneficial due to people being over confident that the mask will keep them safe.

ETA: Also if you are sick, but asymptomatic, and so don't know it, then yes again while wearing a mask would help, however if you are practicing good virus hygiene anyways (washing/sanitizing hands regularly, not coughing on hands, only touching things you are taking in public spaces, not leaning over and breathing on all the products in the supermarket, keeping 2-3m gaps) then you'll also have way less chance of passing it on even without a mask.

So at the end of the day, if you have had contact with someone carrying a virus (SARS-CoV-2 or any other respiratory type virus, corona, influenza, or rhino) and you feel better about not spreading it, then masks are good. Just don't wear a mask when you're healthy and believe it'll protect you if you don't follow all the rest of the things you need to be doing (2-3m gaps, hand washing, not touching your face, etc) because those are the things that will help you stay safe, where the mask may not.
 
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Really interesting article making a strong case that ventilators are being vastly overused and quite likely doing more harm than good in many cases.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

The article makes no such claims. It merely says the decision tree about when to apply mechanical ventilators may not be optimal for COVID-19 even though it's based on long experience with other lung conditions. It may be, it may not be.

The only claim, if you will, that is made is this very conditional question:

If the iconoclasts are right, putting coronavirus patients on ventilators could be of little benefit to many and even harmful to some.
 
Surgical masks do help with droplets going out, which if you re-read my post I actually stated, that it helps to protect others from us if we are infected.The N-95 type filter masks will help, but only if worn correctly, otherwise the virus can just come in around the edges of the mask. Assuming that you're within the 2-3m danger zone with an infectious individual. This is why Medicial staff really need them more that the general public does.

Note that this study was testing the effects for people spreading virus particles they already had, which I did note in my post as an effective reason to wear a mask, they weren't comparing wearing a mask to effective distancing from other people in the risk of getting an infectious viral load.

So yeah, if you have a virus and absolutely have to leave your home, then yes you should be wearing a mask, not just for this corona virus, but even influenza or rhinovirus caused illnesses.

If you aren't sick however, wearing a mask does not appear to have any benefits over keeping 2-3m from other people, and may actually be less beneficial due to people being over confident that the mask will keep them safe.

This study was done with surgical masks, not N95 ones. It showed strong attenuation of coronavirus in both droplets and aerosols . Interestingly, it didn't show that for flu virus.

And the study also showed significant levels of coronavirus in aerosols without masks.
 
ETA: Also if you are sick, but asymptomatic, and so don't know it, then yes again while wearing a mask would help, however if you are practicing good virus hygiene anyways (washing/sanitizing hands regularly, not coughing on hands, only touching things you are taking in public spaces, not leaning over and breathing on all the products in the supermarket, keeping 2-3m gaps) then you'll also have way less chance of passing it on even without a mask.

So at the end of the day, if you have had contact with someone carrying a virus (SARS-CoV-2 or any other respiratory type virus, corona, influenza, or rhino) and you feel better about not spreading it, then masks are good. Just don't wear a mask when you're healthy and believe it'll protect you if you don't follow all the rest of the things you need to be doing (2-3m gaps, hand washing, not touching your face, etc) because those are the things that will help you stay safe, where the mask may not.

The whole point of everybody wearing masks is precisely because of these asymptomatic spreaders, and spreading from those people who are infected yet don't yet show symptoms. As we know the incubation time before symptoms can ranges from 2 days to 2 weeks, this is a significant contribution to infection.

I don't buy the argument that wearing a medical mask makes people think they are suddenly invulnerable. The distancing and hand washing has been hammered home enough, people aren't suddenly going to ignore that now there is an additional layer of protection available.

The fact remains that in countries that have been wearing medical masks universally since January, we are not seeing the same mass outbreaks there are in Europe and the US.

See Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea and Taiwan. Hong Kong has 900 odd cases (300 recovered) and 4 deaths. Don't tell me that masks don't help.

I wrongly included Singapore on that list last time this came up, there were not wearing masks yet have now started a large outbreak. They have now gone on complete lockdown and are recommending masks.

When they are available, masks help, full stop.
 
That's also why you will see vastly reduced new deaths in the USA within the next month.

Only for them to jump right back up if the rules are relaxed completely.

That's going to be the most interesting period - what happens next?
 
Only for them to jump right back up if the rules are relaxed completely.

That's going to be the most interesting period - what happens next?

Indeed it will be. I expect rules will be partially relaxed and presumably we will have rapid testing widely available by then. With a lower case count a combination of partial mitigation rules and increased ones in selected areas together with contact tracing may be sufficient to control things until a vaccine is available. It'll be the new normal for a while.

We're doing the hammer now, the dance is where the fun happens.
 
This study was done with surgical masks, not N95 ones. It showed strong attenuation of coronavirus in both droplets and aerosols . Interestingly, it didn't show that for flu virus.

And the study also showed significant levels of coronavirus in aerosols without masks.

Yes I saw that, but, as I previously noted, it was a study about people with the virus breathing out, it was not a study about people wearing masks in a virally loaded atmosphere. These are different things. When you breath out, you are pushing your breath directly onto the mask, even if part of it goes around the edges, however when you breath in, the mask can't stop viruses that come around the edges of the mask. Here's the important bit of their discussion, highlighting is mine.

Our findings indicate that surgical masks can efficaciously reduce the emission of influenza virus particles into the environment in respiratory droplets, but not in aerosols12. Both the previous and current study used a bioaerosol collecting device, the Gesundheit-II (G-II)12,15,19, to capture exhaled breath particles and differentiated them into two size fractions, where exhaled breath coarse particles >5 μm (respiratory droplets) were collected by impaction with a 5-μm slit inertial Teflon impactor and the remaining fine particles ≤5 μm (aerosols) were collected by condensation in buffer. We also demonstrated the efficacy of surgical masks to reduce coronavirus detection and viral copies in large respiratory droplets and in aerosols (Table 1b). This has important implications for control of COVID-19, suggesting that surgical face masks could be used by ill people to reduce onward transmission.
 
Yes I saw that, but, as I previously noted, it was a study about people with the virus breathing out, it was not a study about people wearing masks in a virally loaded atmosphere. These are different things. When you breath out, you are pushing your breath directly onto the mask, even if part of it goes around the edges, however when you breath in, the mask can't stop viruses that come around the edges of the mask.

I suspect that breathing air in would create a slightly better seal due to the slight partial vacuum whereas breathing out produces slightly higher pressure reducing the seal fit of the mask. That effect is likely greater on N95 type masks than surgical ones which really don't have much sealing. But even for surgical masks I suspect well over 99% of inhaled and exhaled air goes through the mask filter.

I completely agree with the highlighted quote.
Clearly masks are far more effective at preventing spread from infected patients. Both aerosols and droplets. At best a mask can only partially protect the single individual that wears one.
 
Where did the author of that article get her information? I see everyone repeating it in some form or another including Rush Limbot.

Not sure, but I've seen other mainstream articles where doctors were quoted saying similar things.
 
The article makes no such claims. It merely says the decision tree about when to apply mechanical ventilators may not be optimal for COVID-19 even though it's based on long experience with other lung conditions. It may be, it may not be.

The only claim, if you will, that is made is this very conditional question:

Good points, your phrasing is much more accurate.
 
The whole point of everybody wearing masks is precisely because of these asymptomatic spreaders, and spreading from those people who are infected yet don't yet show symptoms. As we know the incubation time before symptoms can ranges from 2 days to 2 weeks, this is a significant contribution to infection.

Most studies are saying that while about 30% of people may test positive prior to displaying symptoms, that 75% of people don't become infectious until they have symptoms. The others become symptomatic within 48 hours of becoming infectious. According to a The Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners report this week, there is a lot of debate over if totally asymptomatic carriers even exist with little to no evidence for effected people not having any symptoms, even if such are mild. Based on all of this, it is exceedingly unlikely that you have been infected by a asymptomatic carrier, but if you have reason to believe you have come in close contact, then wearing a mask is a good idea, I haven't said otherwise, and in fact stated multiple time, if you think you are sick, wear a mask. I'll add to that, if you think you have had contact and might be infected, get tested and wear a mask.

I don't buy the argument that wearing a medical mask makes people think they are suddenly invulnerable. The distancing and hand washing has been hammered home enough, people aren't suddenly going to ignore that now there is an additional layer of protection available.

Not talking about them suddenly deciding that they are invulnerable, I'm talking about them getting sloppy. Why is it that people on a skeptic's board always seem to jump to strawman arguments?

What is more likely is that people will reuse masks and touch them with contaminated hands when they adjust them, thus increasing their likelihood of being infected.

The fact remains that in countries that have been wearing medical masks universally since January, we are not seeing the same mass outbreaks there are in Europe and the US.

See Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea and Taiwan. Hong Kong has 900 odd cases (300 recovered) and 4 deaths. Don't tell me that masks don't help.

Let's have a look at these countries should we?

Hong Kong, as well as masks they closed the borders early, they instituted a lock down, banned social gatherings and went on a wash your hands and social distancing campaign.

Macu. Also banned social gatherings, closed the borders, and vital hygiene campaign emphasizing washing hands and social distancing.

South Korean. Major, major testing campaign testing campaign (1 in 200 people) followed by isolation for positive tests, social distancing and hygiene push.

Taiwan. Learned lessons of SARS-CoV so closed borders early, worked on isolation of cases, social distancing, and self isolation for non-essential workers, restrictions on travel and social gatherings. Personal Masks were actually donated to the govt on a I don't need mine, you take it program

I'll give you another... New Zealand. Currently 1283 total cases, 2 deaths, 373 recovered, with active cases having dropped by 18 in the past 48 hours.

Closed borders early, pushed restrictions on social gathering and travel, then went into lock down, oh, and no requirement for masks.

See I can do anecdotal data too.

I wrongly included Singapore on that list last time this came up, there were not wearing masks yet have now started a large outbreak. They have now gone on complete lockdown and are recommending masks.

Lock down was what was working, coming out of lock down too soon is what caused the new outbreak.

When they are available, masks help, full stop.

Your belief doesn't substitute for science.

Here's a question. When a person is maintaining social distancing (2-3m), and keeping up with proper hand hygiene and avoiding touching their face with potentially contaminated hands, how exactly do masks help avoid getting infection?
 
I suspect that breathing air in would create a slightly better seal due to the slight partial vacuum whereas breathing out produces slightly higher pressure reducing the seal fit of the mask. That effect is likely greater on N95 type masks than surgical ones which really don't have much sealing. But even for surgical masks I suspect well over 99% of inhaled and exhaled air goes through the mask filter.

Wearing both for work, I can say that want you suspect is wrong, and for guys like me that have facial hair, it's even worse.

ETA: Actually I should clarify that. With an N95 mask that has been properly fitted, and where the person has smooth skin for the mask to fit to, then you are correct, but the reality is that outside of medical centres most people will not be wearing them correctly, and most guys don't shave close enough, even if they don't have facial hair in the first place (which makes the masks pretty much useless.) The surgical masks, yeah, they are able to help prevent you coughing or sneezing on people, but if you have glasses, they'll fog up with the air escaping upwards, and more just shoots out the sides and bottom. So basically they protect the person in front of you by redirecting the air into the plane of your face. Breathing in, much of the air comes about the side of the mask.

I completely agree with the highlighted quote.
Clearly masks are far more effective at preventing spread from infected patients. Both aerosols and droplets. At best a mask can only partially protect the single individual that wears one.

I'll just point out that every reputable source I have seen now says that SARS-CoV-2 is unable to survive in an aerosol form, only droplets that have a 1-2m range from the infected person.
 
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The main reason I've started wearing a (home made) mask when I go shopping is to stop myself touching my face whilst in the supermarket. I drop it into the laundry basket as soon as I get home and then wash my hands.
 
It's all very dependent. Would you stop and put on a T-Shirt with "Bullet Proof Vest" printed on it before getting into a gun fight? Because that's about the effectiveness of most masks at stopping SARS-CoV-2.

IIF you have a properly professionally fitted filter mask and, if you are a guy, are totally clean shaven with zero stubble, then you're good, anyone else... all their masks are doing is stopping them from infecting others if they have the virus themselves.

Surely that is a pretty big "all their masks are doing". If there are a lot of asymptomatic carriers, then them being able to prevent the spread surely makes a difference.

Although, you will have to talk me through the physics of how the virus cannot get out but will definitely get in. How does that work?

Also unless you are taking the right precautions with your mask (changing/washing it after every use, not touching it with unwashed/sanitized hands) then you can actually be increasing your chances of getting infected.

Do you have any evidence for this?
 
The main reason I've started wearing a (home made) mask when I go shopping is to stop myself touching my face whilst in the supermarket. I drop it into the laundry basket as soon as I get home and then wash my hands.

If it makes you feel safer I'd say keep using it, it wont do any harm if you use it right, just make sure you don't exchange touching your face for touching and readjusting your mask, and make sure you keep laundering it after each use, don't fall into the trap of saying "I just used it once yesterday, it'll be fine."
 
If elimination of facial hair and wearing of masks issued by the supermarket before admission would help eliminate the virus I would comply.
 
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