Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[The Atheist]

This does worry me. Certain countries might get rid of every case in their own countries, then allow international travel. People come from these developing nations where it is still common and bring it back. You would need to quarantine everyone doing so and not in their own homes. I mean in quarantine stations where they cannot infect other people. This would kill off the international tourist industry.

Correct all the way.

This is why NZ has instituted a 14-day quarantine for all arrivals.

There really isn't any other option. Helps to be an island.

Two studies of people who were infected in New York found that the majority of infections could be traced to people bringing SARS-COV-2 to the US from Europe.

Now, that is bloody interesting, because a lot of the comments on the NY epidemic talked about it coming from China.

...The scientists are part of the Medico-Industrio Complex...

That explains a lot.

It is finally starting to hit us here in Guatemala. We have only tested something like 7000 people. Last week we had 2 cases, now we have about 90.

I'm not following your numbers - says here you had 8 on 16 March, so 90 right now isn't bad at all. You haven't quite flattened the curve yet, but on the other hand, it's not going up, either, so pretty promising, I'd think.

With the lack of health care and the federal infrastructure to help us out here in the mountains, this is going to be bad. Our town has locked down. No ins or outs AT ALL, masks are mandatory, and we have a 4 pm curfew. No parties, no Easter services, no nada.

Our President did a good job, I think, but he can't overcome the inherent problems in the country that have never been really addressed. I'll try to update as much as possible if it gets bad down here!

Please do!

You're in a pretty dodgy situation and I hope it all works out for you.

 

[pipelineaudio]

My completely unscientific made-up opinion is that too many people don't realise this and are looking at different countries with very different daily death tolls, failing to realise that they're simply earlier in their course of the outbreak, and people are falling over themselves to come up with reasons why country X is doing so much better than country Y.

yet, here I sit in a place with HEAVY travel from china and a lot of travel of rich, ski chalet types from europe where we had cases since at least january, denial up to about three weeks ago and a tepid response finally about two weeks ago, still flying tourists in, still keeping the watersports and congested markets open with no masks and

 

[casebro]

Considering how fast it spread? No way.

Believing that libtards are exaggerating this and that all is well and ever will be might make you feel better, but it doesn't prepare you to face reality.

Fine Belz. Don't like my numbers? Give me some better numbers. NOT of people who swab tested positive, but of a whole population. Diamiond Princess had 3200 people sequestered with the virus, 7 deaths. New York City has 8,600,000 population, 4,500 deaths, and is past peak now. Lastest news is of mass serology tests. Get out of your Pandemic Porn, your Epidemic Derangement Syndrome, and tell me a real death rate.

 

[Belz...]

Fine Belz. Don't like my numbers? Give me some better numbers.

I just pointed out that your made up numbers are made up and that they don't correspond to reality. Asking me to come up with different made up numbers just shows that you don't understand the criticisms of your post.

 

[casebro]

A couple more tid bits: The Life Care centers had um 31 deaths among 120 patients, none among the caregivers. That is 24% of the people living in rest homes. What percentage of the population live in rest homes?

One quote I read (spurious source IIRC) said only 1% of NYC deaths had no other known co-morbidities. If so, it's just not going to move into the general population.

Nah, I don't even own a mask.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Crowds throng streets as lockdown in Wuhan ends:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uhans-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-after-76-days

Curious why they're taking this approach while we're being told we may have to extend lockdowns for months.

 

[JesseCuster]

New York City has 8,600,000 population, 4,500 deaths, and is past peak now. Lastest news is of mass serology tests.

You said that the death rate is 0.004%. The numbers you just quoted disprove what you said about the fatality rate.

4,500 is 0.054% of 8,600,00.

That's 13 times higher than your quoted fatality rate if everyone in New York City got infected, which they clearly haven't, therefore the figure is actually clearly higher than 0.054%. And the epidemic is still on going, so final fatality rate is going to be even higher.

The fatality rate of COVID-19, from just the figures in New York City, is at least 13 times higher than the number you quoted earlier in the thread, i.e. 0.004%?

None of what you're saying makes any sense.

Where did you get the 0.004% number from?

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Crowds throng streets as lockdown in Wuhan ends:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uhans-coronavirus-lockdown-ends-after-76-days

Curious why they're taking this approach while we're being told we may have to extend lockdowns for months.

1) We've got a while to go before we get to 76 days.
2) The lockdown in Wuhan was stricter than anything that's in place anywhere in the US.

 

[marting]

Fine Belz. Don't like my numbers? Give me some better numbers. NOT of people who swab tested positive, but of a whole population. Diamiond Princess had 3200 people sequestered with the virus, 7 deaths. New York City has 8,600,000 population, 4,500 deaths, and is past peak now. Lastest news is of mass serology tests. Get out of your Pandemic Porn, your Epidemic Derangement Syndrome, and tell me a real death rate.

Diamond Princess death total is now 12 (the 7 count was many weeks ago but recovery/death is often a slow process with this virus) and a currently alive patient is getting experimental treatment. Passengers were quarantined to their cabins after 10 tested positive but the virus continued to spread. Eventually, all passengers and crew were tested with just over 700 testing positive for COVID-19.

That's 1.7% of those testing positive and .37% of the entire ship's population.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

You said that the death rate is 0.004%. The numbers you just quoted disprove what you said about the fatality rate.

Where did you get the 0.004% number from?

I think that CaseBro was referring to the percentage of the total population of the US that has died so far (which is now up to 0.005%).

 

[chrispy]

I'm not following your numbers - says here you had 8 on 16 March, so 90 right now isn't bad at all. You haven't quite flattened the curve yet, but on the other hand, it's not going up, either, so pretty promising, I'd think.

Just checked the numbers. So, we have only had 1,000+ tests, with 95 cases now. While it doesn't sound bad, there is so little ability to test that the fact that we have 95 cases means that it is very likely MUCH worse. Add to that the fact we say hello here by kissing (much like the Italians), we have no way to know how much it has spread. No testing plus social norms that allow for spread, added to a crappy infrastructure to deal with testing and treatment and dodgy at best education in most parts is a ****-storm waiting to happen.

 

[Ambrosia]

New York City has 8,600,000 population, 4,500 deaths, and is past peak now. Lastest news is of mass serology tests. Get out of your Pandemic Porn, your Epidemic Derangement Syndrome, and tell me a real death rate.

Population of NYC is 8.623million

4500 deaths divided by 8623000 is 0.052% (52 per 100 000) so if we assume that everyone in NYC has already been infected and has either died or fully recovered then your claim of 4 deaths per 100 000 is already out by more than an order of magnitude.

There isn't enough data yet to determine a real deathrate, but it could vary from ~1% to ~10% though that's not the real problem.

The actual problem is that those deathrates are with a functioning health care system. Covid-19 causes serious health complications in a much larger % of people who catch it and without speedy medical intervention a lot of those people die. So death rates will jump massively when a countries health care system becomes overwhelmed.
On top of that if your countries health care is close to non-existent because it's been overwhelmed with covid-19 cases then all the other people with serious injuries/illnesses that would otherwise have been fine with medical intervention, well those people die too.

If you get hit by a bus and sustain life threatening injuries, and then die from those injuries because there were no ambulance crews available because they were all in use on covid-19 related calls, did you die from the bus or did you die from the virus?

 

[The Atheist]

yet, here I sit in a place with HEAVY travel from china and a lot of travel of rich, ski chalet types from europe where we had cases since at least january, denial up to about three weeks ago and a tepid response finally about two weeks ago, still flying tourists in, still keeping the watersports and congested markets open with no masks

Even better, NYC, which has a population only 8 times greater than Hawaii and which was a later starter in the epidemic, has had 367 times more cases and 1413 times more deaths.

Crowds throng streets as lockdown in Wuhan ends:

Curious why they're taking this approach while we're being told we may have to extend lockdowns for months.

Zero internally transmitted cases for two weeks.

Other countries haven't been able to replicate the extreme lockdown China enforced, so won't get to zero cases.

 

[blutoski]

Diamond Princess death total is now 12 (the 7 count was many weeks ago but recovery/death is often a slow process with this virus) and a currently alive patient is getting experimental treatment. Passengers were quarantined to their cabins after 10 tested positive but the virus continued to spread. Eventually, all passengers and crew were tested with just over 700 testing positive for COVID-19.

That's 1.7% of those testing positive and .37% of the entire ship's population.

*with* a quarantine.

My impression is that casebro is advocating to cancel all these protective measures, but there's no good comparisons because all environments i'm aware of were practicing some degree of precautions. We don't have a great control group.

 

[lomiller]

There may be a significant "native immunity", either genetic variation in receptor or previous exposure to corona virus 'colds', which may be as high as 92%*. Add in the immunity gained from exposure too the current pandemic, and aren't we nearing "herd immunity level" now?

90% is high enough to keep measles, a MUCH more infectious disease, in check. If there were this level of immunity out there, you’d never have heard of COVID.

Next debacle will be whether we have obtained herd immunity, or whether we need to continue current precautions. The politocs will want to "keep them scared so they vote for us to lead them to safety". The scientists are part of the Medico-Industrio Complex. I predict Herd immunity be damned, we are ****** until a vax comes out. Over a death rate of .004%. No, I didn't skip any decimals, 4 per 100,000. We'll be stoning people for not wearing masks.

Wherever you are getting those numbers from, stop going there. They are feeding you pure, 100% obvious, pseudoscience. Real scientists estimate the IFR for COVID between 0.5% and 1% and the CFR between 1% and 2% for a typical population profile.

 

[Samson]

Fine Belz. Don't like my numbers? Give me some better numbers. NOT of people who swab tested positive, but of a whole population. Diamiond Princess had 3200 people sequestered with the virus, 7 deaths. New York City has 8,600,000 population, 4,500 deaths, and is past peak now. Lastest news is of mass serology tests. Get out of your Pandemic Porn, your Epidemic Derangement Syndrome, and tell me a real death rate.

There is the choir practice where 45 of 60 became infected, and the dinner parties where most got infected. Many actual case reported of this nature.
Therefore 92% natural immunity is wrong by an order of magnitude.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Boris Johnson has been moved out of ICU.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Really interesting article making a strong case that ventilators are being vastly overused and quite likely doing more harm than good in many cases.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

 

[lomiller]

*with* a quarantine.

My impression is that casebro is advocating to cancel all these protective measures, but there's no good comparisons because all environments i'm aware of were practicing some degree of precautions.

Shades of anti-vax logic. “No one gets Polio anymore so why do we need vaccinations for it!”

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Because it's China.

So no reason then. You just don't trust them because... China.

Meanwhile, president Trump continues to make false and misleading statements about Covid-19 and other things, and fires any official who refuses to toady up to him. Right now I trust China more than the US government.