Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[crescent]

Seems like there is serious underreporting in NY:

"It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*"

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155576221716480

This CNN article mentions that there is inconsistency in how different states report coronavirus deaths. Some states only report deaths in which there are positive test results - but few states test cadavers, even if corona was the suspected cause of death.

This suggests that if anything, the U.S. is under-counting deaths (not over-counting as is alleged in some circles).

ETA: forgot the link. Here it is:

Coroners worry Covid-19 test shortages could lead to uncounted deaths

 

[lomiller]

This CNN article mentions that there is inconsistency in how different states report coronavirus deaths. Some states only report deaths in which there are positive test results - but few states test cadavers, even if corona was the suspected cause of death.

This suggests that if anything, the U.S. is under-counting deaths (not over-counting as is alleged in some circles).

ETA: forgot the link. Here it is:

Coroners worry Covid-19 test shortages could lead to uncounted deaths

Without knowing more about the specifics of the home deaths, it’s hard to say but there are a couple possibilities here.

If these are pneumonia related deaths, there is a good chance they are COVID related. In most countries I’d assume there are few home deaths fro pneumonia but I can see it being an issue for people in the US without health insurance.

There is also a possibility COVID is killing people in ways other than pneumonia. Other Corona viruses have been know to attack the hearth and cause cardiac issues and strokes. COVID shares some of the characteristics that makes this a possibility, but AFAIK there is no confirmation in the literature. Given the current state of testing and overflowing ICU’s if COVID is causing heart issues, it will almost certainly be lost in the shuffle.

 

[angrysoba]

Well, Japan has called a state of emergency which is being issued in seven prefectures including Tokyo and Osaka.

Essentially, nobody should go out except for essentials.

But...there is no legal enforcement.

 

[steenkh]

There is also a possibility COVID is killing people in ways other than pneumonia. Other Corona viruses have been know to attack the hearth and cause cardiac issues and strokes. COVID shares some of the characteristics that makes this a possibility, but AFAIK there is no confirmation in the literature. Given the current state of testing and overflowing ICU’s if COVID is causing heart issues, it will almost certainly be lost in the shuffle.

When you have difficulty breathing, you might die of a heart attack, if you have the disposition for it. That could be a covid-19-caused death, without being a pneumonia.

 

[Elaedith]

Preliminary (limited) evidence that blood plasma from recovered patients may help with treating Covid-19.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Well, Japan has called a state of emergency which is being issued in seven prefectures including Tokyo and Osaka.

Essentially, nobody should go out except for essentials.

But...there is no legal enforcement.

It's Japan. Social pressure is all that's needed.

 

[carlitos]

Interesting how pneumonia deaths have magically plummeted now that everything is Covid-19. Apparently Covid-19 reduces the number of pneumonia cases. Who would've guessed?

....http s://mobile.twitter.com/DewsNewz/status/1246592458642898944

No, my source is the CDC, I don't care about that guy or his interpretation of the numbers, I just couldn't find a direct link to the chart demonstrating that pneumonia cases have starkly fallen, a fact you seem to be simply handwaving away.

Rob Dew is Alex Jones' producer. That chart is fake. In the conspiracy theories sub-forum, one of the usual suspects posted that a couple of days ago. A forum member asked a CDC contact whether it was real and the answer was no.

Feel free to link to that chart on the CDC website, if that really was your source.

 

[ServiceSoon]

Those on the frontline...what do you make of this observation from a doctor in NY that he is not seeing patients who cannot breath as such but patients who cannot absorb oxygen (similar to altitude sickness)...he is concerned that standard pneumonia protocols are not what is required and that Covid-19 needs a new approach
https://youtu.be/zL6iQVFXayk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can only share my direct anecdotal evidence. I know of a woman in her 50's with lupus. She co-habitats with her husband who was verified by nasal swab to be positive. Her oxygen saturation level is usually around 99%. She has experienced pain and pressure in her chest with saturation levels falling to low 90's. She tested negative for COVID, however, her doctor believes this is a false-negative and is treating her as if she has COVID.

 

[marting]

Thanks!


My first attempt to reproduce your numbers ended in failure.

I think I do not understand this: "I used the increase over a week's period but changed one day at a time".

Would you please show how this works, with a concrete example? Not one of the endpoints, preferably somewhere in the middle, 27 March say.

Let's take just a single date, March 27.

First add all the numbers of crescent's USA deaths for the 3 days on either side and including March 26. Then do the same for March 27.

These are 2125 and 2576 deaths respectively. 2576/2125=1.22 or daily ratio, 1.22^6= 3.3 or R for a 6 day latency between generations.

Apply to each date where you have 3 days on each side. This reduces variations where there is some unevenness in care/reporting based on some variation like weekend reporting differing from weekday reporting.

If, for instance you apply the same formula to crescent's 20% daily increase projection you will get a daily increase factor of 1.20 and an R of 3.

 

[lomiller]

When you have difficulty breathing, you might die of a heart attack, if you have the disposition for it. That could be a covid-19-caused death, without being a pneumonia.

That can happen as well, but it’s also possible COVID can attack and and infect heart muscles directly because the ACE2 enzyme it binds when attacking a cell are also present in the heart. Again, AFAIK there is no confirmation of it thus far.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-patients-puzzles-doctors/

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Interesting how pneumonia deaths have magically plummeted now that everything is Covid-19. Apparently Covid-19 reduces the number of pneumonia cases. Who would've guessed?

....http s://mobile.twitter.com/DewsNewz/status/1246592458642898944


Rob Dew is Alex Jones' producer. That chart is fake. In the conspiracy theories sub-forum, one of the usual suspects posted that a couple of days ago. A forum member asked a CDC contact whether it was real and the answer was no.

Feel free to link to that chart on the CDC website, if that really was your source.

I stand corrected, and will be much more careful with my sources. Thanks for figuring that out. I assuned it was made using figures from the CDC but that was obviously a foolish assumption.

 

[Belz...]

https://novuscomms.com/2020/03/31/a...orphan-orph-laboratory-professor-john-oxford/

Note that he is, however, still in favor of social distancing measures.

Five days since that post and the UK is up from 3000 to 6000 dead.

Do you want to change your prediction by proxy?

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Five days since that post and the UK is up from 3000 to 6000 dead.

Do you want to change your prediction by proxy?

No, I have already locked in my prediction in a bet with Roboramma.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

The news on Boris today:

Johnson's condition is stable and he "remains in good spirits," his spokesperson said. He has not required invasive or non-invasive ventilation and does not have pneumonia.

 

[Planigale]

Those on the frontline...what do you make of this observation from a doctor in NY that he is not seeing patients who cannot breath as such but patients who cannot absorb oxygen (similar to altitude sickness)...he is concerned that standard pneumonia protocols are not what is required and that Covid-19 needs a new approach
https://youtu.be/zL6iQVFXayk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, but that is what happens with pneumonia. It is very similar in pneumocystis pneumonia that you can get with AIDS. The oxygen levels drop. Contrary to what most people think low oxygen does not make you very breathless. In particular what we see is that the oxygen levels drop on exertion, people feel fatigued and unwell, do less and it is only when oxygen levels have dropped quite low at rest they come into hospital.

However the odd thing with Covid-19 is that low oxygen is not the main reason for admission to ITU / ventilation. The lungs become stiff, it takes a lot of muscle effort to breathe, the lung muscles begin to fail, then patients quite rapidly develop ventilatory failure, but whilst one is able to maintain oxygen levels by giving them high levels of oxygen. Of course in the last hour or so oxygen levels deteriorate, before going on a ventilator. In normal flu pneumonia things follow a more gradual and predictable path. The problem with covid-19 is people suddenly deteriorate from appearing quite stable. You have to focus more on the breathing pattern than the oxygen levels. Skeptic Ginger may be interested that we are referring to ITU when patients are only on 40% oxygen, normally one would wait longer, until they were on 60%+ oxygen before considering the need for ITU.

 

[Bubba]

I can only share my direct anecdotal evidence. I know of a woman in her 50's with lupus. She co-habitats with her husband who was verified by nasal swab to be positive. Her oxygen saturation level is usually around 99%. She has experienced pain and pressure in her chest with saturation levels falling to low 90's. She tested negative for COVID, however, her doctor believes this is a false-negative and is treating her as if she has COVID.

Dr Oz tells us rheumatologists report no covid in Lupus patients already taking hydroxychloroquine. Oz says this should be tested to find whether or not hydroxychloroquine could safely be used as a prophylactic.

 

[dann]

The evidence for using hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19 is flimsy (Vox, April 7, 2020)


If all you get is bad side effects, it may not be a good idea to try to save Covid-19 patients with the drug:

A study in China found that hydroxychloroquine was no better than standard medical treatments without the drug. This study was also small, 30 patients, but the treatment was randomized. Another study in France among 11 patients found that hydroxychloroquine was ineffective at best, with one patient dying, two transferred to an intensive care unit, and one patient who experienced a dangerous heart problem and had the hydroxychloroquine treatment stopped early.
In Sweden, some hospitals have stopped offering the drug after some patients reported seizures and blurred vision.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Yes, but that is what happens with pneumonia. It is very similar in pneumocystis pneumonia that you can get with AIDS. The oxygen levels drop. Contrary to what most people think low oxygen does not make you very breathless. In particular what we see is that the oxygen levels drop on exertion, people feel fatigued and unwell, do less and it is only when oxygen levels have dropped quite low at rest they come into hospital.

However the odd thing with Covid-19 is that low oxygen is not the main reason for admission to ITU / ventilation. The lungs become stiff, it takes a lot of muscle effort to breathe, the lung muscles begin to fail, then patients quite rapidly develop ventilatory failure, but whilst one is able to maintain oxygen levels by giving them high levels of oxygen. Of course in the last hour or so oxygen levels deteriorate, before going on a ventilator. In normal flu pneumonia things follow a more gradual and predictable path. The problem with covid-19 is people suddenly deteriorate from appearing quite stable. You have to focus more on the breathing pattern than the oxygen levels. Skeptic Ginger may be interested that we are referring to ITU when patients are only on 40% oxygen, normally one would wait longer, until they were on 60%+ oxygen before considering the need for ITU.

Why would the lungs become stiff? Why would this low oxygenation cause the diaghram and accesory breathing muscles to weaken?

 

[Ryokan]

Yeah, there's a lot of research into hydrochloraquil and Covid-19 going on right now. It's not like it's being ignored.

 

[carlitos]

Dr Oz tells us rheumatologists report no covid in Lupus patients already taking hydrochloraquil. Oz says this should be tested to find whether or not hydrochloraquil could safely be used as a prophylactic.

Please quarantine your nonsense in the CT thread. Dr Oz is wrong and Trump is a liar.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trumps-false-coronavirus-claim-about-lupus-patients/