Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[marting]

Cheers, though I made a mistake from quick fingers and slow brain. It's still lower than other statitistics.
The claim is that they're conflating deaths.

Actually, WHO's numbers lag others that report more real time.

The numbers I posted from WHOs Apr. 7 website were actually numbers reported to them by 10:00 CET Apr 6 which wee hours of the morning for most of the USA. The specify the time and date on their reports. Safe bet it's way over 70k by even the start of Apr 7.

 

[casebro]

I made my own mask.

I made my own face mask. I made it so it opens in the front with a button in case not enough air gets through, And centered right on the nose is the Fruit of the Loom label. Good workmanship If I do say so myself.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Is this eric napute guy actually a doctor? How much quinine is in tonic water? Not sure anyone has ever cured malaria with tonic water

https://www.facebook.com/drericnepu...Z7PZCnm_mR5_qYNW1v8TKz-3Ah7rL9XfHWSjFMFE7at6I

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

You have a deal.

I've lost track. What is the actual bet? What are the judgment criteria? We all know the MDC. We know how these things have to work.

I think the bet is over/under 85k covid+flu deaths this year.

I would assume the covid deaths will be from worldometers.

Where do we get the flu numbers? I have seen charts of estimated flu deaths from CDC, but I have not been able to find the data.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Anyone know the statistics for recovery from intensive care for a 55 year old overweight male?

Edited: I now see this is just some political junk. **** that.

 

[marting]

I've lost track. What is the actual bet? What are the judgment criteria? We all know the MDC. We know how these things have to work.

I think the bet is over/under 85k covid+flu deaths this year.

I would assume the covid deaths will be from worldometers.

Where do we get the flu numbers? I have seen charts of estimated flu deaths from CDC, but I have not been able to find the data.

I'm pretty sure the CDC only tracks Flu test results. They have weekly updates on tests. I don't believe there is any national tracking of deaths only estimates. Current Flu death estimates are 24,000 – 63,000, so they haven't much of an idea.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

CDC:

*Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.

**Influenza testing across the United States may be higher than normal at this time of year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. These estimates may partly reflect increases in testing in recent weeks and may be adjusted downward once the season is complete and final data for the 2019/20 season are available.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Seems like there is serious underreporting in NY:

"It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*"

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247155576221716480

 

[pipelineaudio]

WOW did that guy blow it!!!!!!!!! Holy crap, I can;t believe he's even posting! I'd be hiding under a bed

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I'm pretty sure the CDC only tracks Flu test results. They have weekly updates on tests. I don't believe there is any national tracking of deaths only estimates. Current Flu death estimates are 24,000 – 63,000, so they haven't much of an idea.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

CDC:

CDC used to refuse to even do death estimates. Now they do weekly reports of estimated flu deaths. But it is a total for the flu season, not day by day numbers.

 

[The Atheist]

Is this eric napute guy actually a doctor? How much quinine is in tonic water?

Not enough to help, even if quinine did.

I made that as a joke suggestion when chloroquine first came up so I could drink more gin. I think someone worked out 600 litres of tonic a day to get an effective anti-malaria dose.

 

[EHocking]

Is this eric napute guy actually a doctor?

He”s a chiropractor that runs a “wellness” centre. So no and no.

How much quinine is in tonic water? Not sure anyone has ever cured malaria with tonic water

https://www.facebook.com/drericnepu...Z7PZCnm_mR5_qYNW1v8TKz-3Ah7rL9XfHWSjFMFE7at6I

Tonic water was taken as a prophylactic against malaria way back when. It had a much higher content of quinine than the current drinks do. And no, it was never a cure.

 

[Pixel42]

I made my own face mask. I made it so it opens in the front with a button in case not enough air gets through, And centered right on the nose is the Fruit of the Loom label. Good workmanship If I do say so myself.

I made one using a napkin and a couple of hair ties following the instructions here:

http://blog.japanesecreations.com/no-sew-face-mask-with-handkerchief-and-hair-tie

No sewing required, and works very well.

 

[Darat]

Edited: I now see this is just some political junk. **** that.

No, it was and is a serious question!

 

[Elaedith]

I bought a box of 50 surgical face masks a couple of years ago to reduce the amount of dust I inhaled when doing DIY or mixing compost in the garden. I still have most of them.

 

[!Kaggen]

Those on the frontline...what do you make of this observation from a doctor in NY that he is not seeing patients who cannot breath as such but patients who cannot absorb oxygen (similar to altitude sickness)...he is concerned that standard pneumonia protocols are not what is required and that Covid-19 needs a new approach
https://youtu.be/zL6iQVFXayk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[rjh01]

To find out some stats about cases in Australia see this pdf https://www.health.gov.au/sites/def...avirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_3.pdf

This is from this page which gets updated twice a day https://www.health.gov.au/news/heal...ent-situation-and-case-numbers#current-status

 

[quadraginta]

The latest news says he was moved to intensive care in case his condition deteriorated, not because he actually required intensive care. It may be an instance of someone important getting preferential treatment.

Mebbe.

But when he first went into the hospital they claimed it was purely a precautionary measure since he had tested positive, and that he was really just fine.

That may have been an instance of the same thing, but it may also have been an instance of downplaying the true seriousness of his condition to keep his ill health from becoming a political liability.

So might this.

 

[Marcus]

I was able to order dust masks (something I use every day) with a claimed delivery date of 4-14.

 

[Belz...]

NZ is starting to look like we acted just in time, with cases dropping by 10% both the past two days and fairly extreme measures in place.
__________________________

USA might be surprisingly getting on top of it as well, with a definite flattening of the growth in cases & deaths.

Just as the place starts to warm up...

Hopefully Canada won't be too bad either, but the US seems to be heading for a light disaster.

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks!

At JeanTate's suggestion I took numbers from crescent's post and WHO numbers for Italy's daily death rates and made a table showing daily increase/decrease ratios and associated R values assuming a generation delay of 6 days between infection and infection of others.

The important factor is the daily rate of increase/decrease. One can see in the case of Italy that R bounced around 2.5 before March 20 then dropped to just over 1 and finally below 1 on Apr 1. Keep in mind that R is a result of infections that typically occurred 3 weeks earlier.

The USA's number reflect some decrease, from around 3.5 before March 30, to around
2.3. This is still quite high but consistent with the awareness and partial social distancing in effect on March 9. I went to a restaurant about that time and it had about 2/3 the normal customers.


http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=13046810&postcount=1910

Because there is so much noise In day to day death variations I used the increase over a week's period but changed one day at a time. This seems to reduce noise significantly. It may be due to variations that occur naturally in reporting at different times during the week. Hence the date corresponds to the 7 day midpoint in the selected range.

Here's Italy from March 14 to Apr 3 from WHO data:

date|7 Day|daily|
Date|Deaths|Ratio|R
13-Mar|1443
14-Mar|1695|1.17|2.6
15-Mar|1872|1.10|1.8
16-Mar|2149|1.15|2.3
17-Mar|2389|1.11|1.9
18-Mar|2762|1.16|2.4
19-Mar|3384|1.23|3.5
20-Mar|3665|1.08|1.6
21-Mar|3917|1.07|1.5
22-Mar|4315|1.10|1.8
23-Mar|4527|1.05|1.3
24-Mar|4758|1.05|1.3
25-Mar|5104|1.07|1.5
26-Mar|5196|1.02|1.1
27-Mar|5305|1.02|1.1
28-Mar|5514|1.04|1.3
29-Mar|5610|1.02|1.1
30-Mar|5652|1.01|1.1
31-Mar|5752|1.02|1.1
1-Apr|5545|0.96|0.8
2-Apr|5339|0.96|0.8
3-Apr|5108|0.96|0.8

One can see the progression of Italy getting COVID-19 under control.


And here's the USA from crescent's data:

date|7 Day|daily|
Date|Deaths|Ratio|R
23-Mar|1295|x|x
24-Mar|1440|1.11|1.9
25-Mar|1919|1.33|5.5
26-Mar|2125|1.11|1.9
27-Mar|2586|1.22|3.3
28-Mar|3273|1.27|4.2
29-Mar|4075|1.25|3.8
30-Mar|4781|1.17|2.6
31-Mar|5426|1.13|2.1
1-Apr|6231|1.15|2.3
2-Apr|7033|1.13|2.1

The USA still has a ways to go but having R cross 1 somewhere around Apr 15 seems reasonable.

My first attempt to reproduce your numbers ended in failure.

I think I do not understand this: "I used the increase over a week's period but changed one day at a time".

Would you please show how this works, with a concrete example? Not one of the endpoints, preferably somewhere in the middle, 27 March say.