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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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EHocking said:
Since Sweden is not testing - who the **** knows?

To quote yourself.
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Why compare Sweden with Australia. At 35 deaths per million and 600 case per million Sweden seems to be doing OK. But if this mobility report can be believed the difference between Sweden and UK is strking. If the Swedish hospital system doesn't get overrun it will be an interesting comparison of strategy.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
 
You can tell something about whether there is enough testing by looking at the percentage of tests that return a "hit". For example Norway has a 5% success rate in this regard. (102k tested, 5200 found positive.) But people are only being tested if there is some reason to think that they may be positive, so the real proportion of the population that is infected is likely lower then 5%.

Let's make a thought-experiment and create two mini-countries. Both countries have a population of 1000 people, of which 100 are infected. Of these 100 cases 20 will become ill enough to experience symptoms, five of those will become ill enough that they must go to a hospital, and one will die.

Country A does extensive testing and find the 20 with symptoms (because they report sick) plus 30 more who had contact with the 20. Their NHS has enough capacity to put five more in hospital than absolutely needs to go there, so they put 10 in hospital in all. As mentioned before, one dies. So from their perspective it now looks like they have a 2% mortality rate (Of 50 confirmed cases, one died). Of the 10 people in intensive care 9 made it through, so it looks like their health care system has a 90% success rate when it comes to curing the patients.)

Country B has way too few test kits so they only test patients who turn up at the hospital in dire condition. They get 5 of these, and one of them dies. To country B it now looks as if the disease has a 20% fatality rate, and their hospitals only manage to cure 80% of the patients.

The above was only a snaphot in time, of course. Things will develop in both countries, but probably differently because the governments have different information about the disease. Country A will have a better chance at timing their lockdown right to avoid having their hospital overwhelmed. If either country fails at that they may experience additional deaths from otherwise treatable conditions.
 
JesseCuster said:
So far.
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Yes and lets hope it stays that way. Sweden's first case is reported as around 1 March, a few days earlier than the UK. Their testing is low, but not that much lower than others, maybe half. If they can protect the old and infirm and not have their hospitals overrun they will have achieved their aim. We will know in a couple of weeks.
 
crescent said:
"Immune" is being used in the popular press (and in this forum) to mean a wide variety of conflicting things.

Some are reporting that immune people can be contagious. That's not true, but gets reported anyway. What happens instead is that some people are asymptomatic but infectious. Some develop symptoms later, some never develop symptoms.

But - never developing symptoms is not the same as immunity. The body still gets infected and needs to develop the antibodies for the immune response to fight off the virus. While the body is busy doing this, the person may still become infectious, regardless of whether or not they develop symptoms. This compares to an immune person who either already has the antibodies such that any infection gets destroyed before the virus has much chance to replicate throughout the body.
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I have heard that people that are immune are still able to breathe in virus particles, keep them in the nose, throat, and lungs, and breathe them out again later, thereby possibly infecting other people, even though the virus is killed swiftly if it it enters their body.
 
Have there been any real studies on airplanes (not the travel part, the countries involved) being the cause of infection?

I checked on summer travel, and out flights to Europe are not yet canceled. Once they cancel then we can pick a date later, no fee. United will let us travel to March 2021, as the tickets were bought in early March. Not by me, I would have held off to May and paid the higher fare.
 
steenkh said:
I have heard that people that are immune are still able to breathe in virus particles, keep them in the nose, throat, and lungs, and breathe them out again later, thereby possibly infecting other people, even though the virus is killed swiftly if it it enters their body.
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I expect an immune person simply becomes another walking and talking fomite.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I really don't care much about your vent/rant whatever.

But here's the age and gender breakdown for the fatalities in WA State.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
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The few deaths among the not-so-old (<50, 20 deaths of 80,000 tests) might be accounted for by co-morbidities. 50 year olds with transplants, AIDS, etc. And I see only 8% of the 82,600 tested were positive+.

Overall fatality rate of those who took the test, .34%, I will assume those with gross co-morbitities.

The state directions is for health providers to only refer patients for testing if they have symptoms. So take all those numbers and divide by your own wild ast guess as to what percent of the population got tested, to arrive at risk rates for the general population. My answer- miniscule.

If I was a REAL statistician, I would draw a bell curve of age of death from Covid. Comare it to a graph of all causes. They seem to be a pretty good match. Not worried about death at your age? Don't worry about the added risk of covid either.
 
casebro said:
The few deaths among the not-so-old (<50, 20 deaths of 80,000 tests) might be accounted for by co-morbidities. 50 year olds with transplants, AIDS, etc. And I see only 8% of the 82,600 tested were positive+.

Overall fatality rate of those who took the test, .34%, I will assume those with gross co-morbitities.
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Why would you be looking at the "fatality rate" of those who were tested for COVID-19? What does it even mean to say that the fatality rate of those who were tested was 0.34%?

0.34% is the fatality rate of what exactly?
 
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Re: the territorial variants in rates: Dietary differences? It takes a fatty acid to make the virus particle. Which one? Can a deficiency prevent the multiplication of the virus? Or high or low fatty acid transporter mechanisms? IIRC, fructose is needed to build membranes, or is that monounsturated fatty acids?

Then anti-viral wise, there are other solvents than alcohol and detergents. Something else ought to work on virus skins. Acetone (fingernail polish remover) paint thinner, even other oils. Cooking oils or hand lotions might be anti-viral. Remember that hand sanitizers are expected to kill a broad selection of germs, but it is possible that some other every day solution works strictly as an anti-viral. Motor oils dissolve gunky grease. So does baby oil. Or kerosene. Or Choline solutions?
 
casebro said:
Re: the territorial variants in rates: Dietary differences? It takes a fatty acid to make the virus particle. Which one? Can a deficiency prevent the multiplication of the virus? Or high or low fatty acid transporter mechanisms? IIRC, fructose is needed to build membranes, or is that monounsturated fatty acids?

Then anti-viral wise, there are other solvents than alcohol and detergents. Something else ought to work on virus skins. Acetone (fingernail polish remover) paint thinner, even other oils. Cooking oils or hand lotions might be anti-viral. Remember that hand sanitizers are expected to kill a broad selection of germs, but it is possible that some other every day solution works strictly as an anti-viral. Motor oils dissolve gunky grease. So does baby oil. Or kerosene. Or Choline solutions?
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This is like some sort of jazz free-form association stream-of-consciousness of random ideas.
 
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Statewise, our stats show that the highest-affected age group is 20-44, almost twice the total of ages 65+. This is for cases -- no death statistics by age provided on that page.
 
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