Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Dr.Sid]

I continue to be puzzled by the statistics I am reading. Having my roots and lots of relations in Sweden I have been looking at the stats from there and comparing to other countries including Australia.

Total Cases. Deaths. Recoveries

Sweden. 6131 358. 205

Australia. 5350. 28. 585



Why is there more than 10 times the death rate in Sweden? The recovery rate would suggest the virus has been in Australia as long or longer than in Sweden.

Just wondering if some other factor is at work here .... higher immunity or a lesser virulent strain in Australia perhaps?

Again, and again. Every country collects the data differently. They cannot be compared unless you know the methods. Even if they were collected in the same way, there are so many variables in spread and mortality, that it's really nothing to be confused about.

 

[Samson]

Today's ignorant question:
An op-ed writer in the Washington Post once again brought up the possibility that Patient Zero was an employee at a Chinese laboratory who accidentally became infected while studying viruses found in bats. I was under the impression that the predominant thought was that the virus did not jump directly from bats to humans but instead was routed through some other animal (e.g., pangolin). Am I wrong?

this is Shaun Attwood, who has written some interesting books about his time in prison USA, Party Time, Prison time and so on.
He has emerged as a good impartial interviewer in special interest areas.

Here is a utube interview that I watched most of, and if any of the experts here care to, and review it I would be interested. The theme is laboratory to bat to human I think from memory. 58 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8ilxBYZHvQ&feature=youtu.be

 

[Dr.Sid]

Today's ignorant question:
An op-ed writer in the Washington Post once again brought up the possibility that Patient Zero was an employee at a Chinese laboratory who accidentally became infected while studying viruses found in bats. I was under the impression that the predominant thought was that the virus did not jump directly from bats to humans but instead was routed through some other animal (e.g., pangolin). Am I wrong?

All these animal routes are just ideas. SARS-COV2 has 2 very specific areas, which make it so virulent in humans. One of those areas is similar to virus found in pangolin. But not the same. And bats are in general rich source of coronaviruses. But no bat virus has any of the new parts.
So nothing is confirmed. Nor bat, nor pangolin, were found infected by virus which could be called SARS-COV2, or is close it where it matters. These two animals are just the closest.

 

[Athyrio]

Are we going to hit a point where it really turns and society goes *******? So far most people have been fair about following guidelines and such, and I haven't heard about massive looting of stores or rioting, even in countries other than the U.S. Will there be one event that sets everything off?

Don't know about one event, but I feel that, barring some miraculous shift of fortune, the many who have lived from paycheck to paycheck will eventually run out of cash on hand and hunger will drive them to go simian feces. I have seen mobs, even been in mobs but not dangerous or desperate ones. It's very easy to get caught up in a mob. A hungry mob is frightening to me.

 

[novaphile]

I continue to be puzzled by the statistics I am reading. Having my roots and lots of relations in Sweden I have been looking at the stats from there and comparing to other countries including Australia.

Total Cases. Deaths. Recoveries

Sweden. 6131 358. 205

Australia. 5350. 28. 585



Why is there more than 10 times the death rate in Sweden? The recovery rate would suggest the virus has been in Australia as long or longer than in Sweden.

Just wondering if some other factor is at work here .... higher immunity or a lesser virulent strain in Australia perhaps?

Hmm...

My instinct is to have a look at how quickly the cases were on hand.

Australia had the first four cases delivered to us on 26/1/2020, and they went straight into isolation. That's not a lot to manage.

On the 29th of February we had 10 new cases.

We didn't see a lot of cases in one day (72) until the 13th of March almost two months later.

That's a lot of time to make preparations and enquiries about effective treament etc. and nowhere near capacity to treat.

Sweden received the first positive case on the 27th of February, and two weeks later had 215 new cases on the 13th of March. (A total of approximately 660 new cases in about two weeks).

For us it was a case of forewarned = forearmed. People getting off from infected cruise ships were temporarily detained in camps, and the most ill, were immediately evacuated to hospitals in their home states.

I had hoped that we would continue with that approach, but unfortunately the wheels fell off.

However other measures started to be taken, and we've continued to see the benefit.

The logarithmic curve for Australia is starting to look better i.e. we're just on the lower side of the exponential growth line.

 

[EHocking]

Today's ignorant question:
An op-ed writer in the Washington Post once again brought up the possibility that Patient Zero was an employee at a Chinese laboratory who accidentally became infected while studying viruses found in bats. I was under the impression that the predominant thought was that the virus did not jump directly from bats to humans but instead was routed through some other animal (e.g., pangolin). Am I wrong?

The short answer is that its origin is still unknown.
The speculations re: bats and pangolins is because this strain of Coronavirus is very similar to that found in those animals.

As to animal to human transmission, other Coronavirus related to this one, SARS (bird) and MERS (camel), jumped from animal to human.
SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) is a similar beast (no pun intended) to these.

 

[Trebuchet]

I don't even know what he's saying.

50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, is 4,000 per month. Only when Covid passes that can there are doubtless actual covid deaths, not "Deaths attributed to covid".

Can someone explain what this is supposed to mean?

Someone in power that he voted for said the virus was no big deal; a hoax. Meanwhile, about 3300 people have died in the USA in the past three days. That's around 100,000 a month. But hey, some prominent politician said it so it must be true!

 

[Skeptical Greg]

...
If insurers are going to pick up the tab they will just pass the costs on in our insurance premiums.

I thought I read something about the fed is poised to pay all medical expenses related to Covid 19..

Any idea?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I thought I read something about the fed is poised to pay all medical expenses related to Covid 19..

Any idea?

Doubtful. Incompetrumpetty just orders the tests to be free without saying who would pay.

And insurers have had mixed responses.

 

[casebro]

You folks have been spelling it wrong. It's De-Nihilist. You are so into Pandemic Porn you have to call me names when I say Sinner Repent! Ebola, SARS, West Nike, Zika,... Hmmm, if I cared enough to defend my minor position I would look back at the thread last year re: the childhood disease in WA or OR, and how many deaths it was going to cause. The sky was going to fall all over the North West. Didn't happen then. PROBABLY not going to happen this time. Don't bother flaming me, I won't rise to your trolling. [/VENT]

Now, there are so many variables in reported outcomes and rates, there must be local variations in definitions. We still need a robust study of a random sample.The Diamond Princess is the best I know of, 3200 subjects, 300 positive nasal swabs, 7 deaths all over 67 yo. Anything better? Please? Because without such study allthe prognostication is more Pandemic Porn.

Any demographics of the dead in NYC? Queens is hardest hit, I guess I could find avg age in Queens?

And I don't think there is genetic immunity, the disease sems to hit all ethnicities. So it must be ecological- coronavirus colds? Or the opposite, Covid makes your immune system go nuts if it was already exposed to XYZ disease? No XYZ history, no Covid?

 

[Blue Mountain]

Doubtful. Incompetrumpetty just orders the tests to be free without saying who would pay.

And insurers have had mixed responses.

Since this thread is intended to be apolitical, I'm humbly asking you to use the president's proper name here. (In the political threads you can use whatever you want.)

 

[novaphile]

You folks have been spelling it wrong. It's De-Nihilist. You are so into Pandemic Porn you have to call me names when I say Sinner Repent! Ebola, SARS, West Nike, Zika,... Hmmm, if I cared enough to defend my minor position I would look back at the thread last year re: the childhood disease in WA or OR, and how many deaths it was going to cause. The sky was going to fall all over the North West. Didn't happen then. PROBABLY not going to happen this time. Don't bother flaming me, I won't rise to your trolling. [/VENT]

Now, there are so many variables in reported outcomes and rates, there must be local variations in definitions. We still need a robust study of a random sample.The Diamond Princess is the best I know of, 3200 subjects, 300 positive nasal swabs, 7 deaths all over 67 yo. Anything better? Please? Because without such study allthe prognostication is more Pandemic Porn.

Any demographics of the dead in NYC? Queens is hardest hit, I guess I could find avg age in Queens?

And I don't think there is genetic immunity, the disease sems to hit all ethnicities. So it must be ecological- coronavirus colds? Or the opposite, Covid makes your immune system go nuts if it was already exposed to XYZ disease? No XYZ history, no Covid?

This speculation has been posted before. (Including elsewhere by medical professionals.) So far... I don't believe any evidence has been found to support it.

Regarding co-morbidities, see:
https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2020/03/17/13993003.00547-2020

Someone has already posted that a very large percentage of Americans have high-blood pressure.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

Someone has already posted that a very large percentage of Americans have high-blood pressure.

And it is largely un-diagnosed. As is type 2 diabetes and heart disease.

Never mind obesity.. Not cool to say the " O " word...

 

[Mader Levap]

1) People in our population are immune to COVID. Coronavirus is not a new disease.

You seem to not be aware that "Coronavirus" is name for certain whole family of viruses.

This family includes certain viruses that can cause common cold or flu and more dangerous viruses that may cause SARS and MERS. SARS-CoV-2 is simply newest member of this family.

(...)

Denial, denial and more denial. We all know why.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

As to animal to human transmission, other Coronavirus related to this one, SARS (bird) and MERS (camel), jumped from animal to human.
SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) is a similar beast (no pun intended) to these.

I thought that SARS went from bats to civets to humans.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...

Any demographics of the dead in NYC? Queens is hardest hit, I guess I could find avg age in Queens?

...

I really don't care much about your vent/rant whatever.

But here's the age and gender breakdown for the fatalities in WA State.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

 

[dudalb]

Are we going to hit a point where it really turns and society goes *******? So far most people have been fair about following guidelines and such, and I haven't heard about massive looting of stores or rioting, even in countries other than the U.S. Will there be one event that sets everything off?

I think we are nearer the edge then many like to think.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

Enjoy the ride..

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Since this thread is intended to be apolitical, I'm humbly asking you to use the president's proper name here. (In the political threads you can use whatever you want.)

Please don't tell me it bothers you that people are dissing youknowwho?

His incompetence and extreme pettiness has had a huge impact on the US epidemic. From failure to respond initially and lack of tests that directly resulted in deaths in this state to the shortages of PPE across the country.

How do you separate that out? Talk about failures to respond to the initial cases but not mention how/why those failures occurred? There's overlap.

I've made a serious effort to keep political subjects separate. But the nickname I've given to youknowwho is not a political discussion.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

The Diamond Princess is the best I know of, 3200 subjects, 300 positive nasal swabs, 7 deaths all over 67 yo.

According to the CDC report, the Diamond Princess had 3,711 passengers and crew. Of those, 712 tested positive for covid. Of those, 11 have died. (There were still 7 in serious condition as of March 26).

That means that 19.2% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. Of those infected, 1.5% died.

The U.S. has a population of 327.2 million. If 19.2% are infected, that would be 62.7 million. If 1.5% of those people died, that would be 969,873 deaths.

About a million deaths.