Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Skeptical Greg]

By the end of tomorrow's count, New York state will account for 10% of all cases confirmed in the world.

..

What does this tell us beyond " that's the way it is " ?

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

I note the logarithmic deaths chart for USA shows no sign of flattening so far.

Don't you meant exponential? (ETA: on re-reading I see that you said "logarithmic deaths chart", which I misread as "logarithmic deaths curve".

And isn't the case count at least slowing down? By that I mean slowing its rate of increase?

That's how I've been interpreting the little orange bars to the left in the NYT map.

 

[casebro]

By the end of tomorrow's count, New York state will account for 10% of all cases confirmed in the world.

I note the logarithmic deaths chart for USA shows no sign of flattening so far.

Confirmed? as in "No other cause of death possible? No chance of mal diagnosis?"

50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, is 4,000 per month. Only when Covid passes that can there are doubtless actual covid deaths, not "Deaths attributed to covid".

Or, 2.8m deaths per year from all causes. that is 7,700 per day. What was that latest day's attibutibed to Covid?

 

[Arcade22]

Do you know which government department(s) or agency/ies, in Hong Kong and in Macau, report(s) covid-19 deaths?

Do you have credible evidence that they deliberately mis-state such deaths?

No and I don't need to known which specific agency is responsible. The fact that there is not any evidence that they are not fudging their data is not proof that they are not doing so.

The Chinese authorities have already shown themselves as highly unreliable and untrustworthy long before this pandemic. If anything they have become even worse the last couple of years. They lie about stuff all the time which is exactly why people should not take any statistics coming from countries like China, Iran and Russia at face value.

The fact that they are reported to the WHO does not mean that they somehow have earned a seal of quality. The WHO is not going to stand up to China.

 

[Arcade22]

What does this tell us beyond " that's the way it is " ?

It's very easy to enact mass testing in areas of very high population density.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

We should be doing that regardless of the numbers..

I don't see how reporting numbers will change the behavior of those with the power to do something about it..

 

[Meadmaker]

By the end of tomorrow's count, New York state will account for 10% of all cases confirmed in the world.

I note the logarithmic deaths chart for USA shows no sign of flattening so far.

Today for the first time since I've been following the numbers, the number of new cases today in Michigan was less than the number of new cases yesterday.

It wasn't much less, and it's only one day, but maybe there's hope.

 

[Trebuchet]

Today for the first time since I've been following the numbers, the number of new cases today in Michigan was less than the number of new cases yesterday.

It wasn't much less, and it's only one day, but maybe there's hope.

In the USA as well, although that's based on GMT. According to Worldometer, only 968 dead Americans today, versus over a thousand yesterday. But it's just one person from China, and will soon be down to zero.

 

[angrysoba]

Confirmed? as in "No other cause of death possible? No chance of mal diagnosis?"
50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, is 4,000 per month. Only when Covid passes that can there are doubtless actual covid deaths, not "Deaths attributed to covid".

Or, 2.8m deaths per year from all causes. that is 7,700 per day. What was that latest day's attibutibed to Covid?

Well, the US has apparently had 763 Covid deaths in the last 24 hours according to worldometer.

So, 10% of people who died yesterday did so from Covid-19. That seems a lot.

But, okay, let's assume that they were all common or garden pneumonia cases.

If yesterday's totals were happening everyday for the month of April there would end up being 22,890 deaths compared to your figure of 4,000 of pneumonia. So, that is still 18,890 excess deaths compared to your expected baseline rate of 4,000.

Hmmmm...I wonder if that is why the hospitals are being overwhelmed.

In France they had 1,355 deaths of Covid 19. That is a massive epidemic of "mal diagnosis". For a country with a population of about a fifth of that of the USA, they are having a ton of "mal diagnosed" pneumonia cases.

In Spain, they had 961 cases of "mal diagnosis", the UK 569.

Either this is a worldwide conspiracy of mal diagnosis...

OR...

...and this is where things get really unlikely, I'll grant you.

OR...

...maybe it is a virus of some...new...kind, that is rapidly spreading across multiple continents.

Somebody needs to invent a word for that.

 

[novaphile]

I don't understand the relevance of that.

It's well known that before the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused COVID-19 popped up recently, there were a handful of human coronaviruses that commonly cause respiratory illness.

So a minority of influenza cases are actually caused by these other coronaviruses and have been misdiagnosed as influenza. COVID-19 belongs to the same family of viruses as some previously known viruses that can sometimes be mistaken for influenza.

Ok.

How is this relevant to the discussion at hand? How does this help your case?

I don't know how other countries work, but I've only been diagnosed with 'influenza' if I've returned a positive test for influenza.

Depending on the specific test run, I've seen different results like:

Positive for Influenza
Positive Influenza A
Positive Influenza A (H1N1)

In my entire life, I've never presented with a chest infection, or a cold and been told "you have a flu".

Typically it's "bronchitus"; viral URTI, or "uh oh" you're showing influenza symptoms, we'd better get a test run.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Confirmed? as in "No other cause of death possible? No chance of mal diagnosis?"

50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, is 4,000 per month. Only when Covid passes that can there are doubtless actual covid deaths, not "Deaths attributed to covid".

Or, 2.8m deaths per year from all causes. that is 7,700 per day. What was that latest day's attibutibed to Covid?

Why do you think people are imagining this pandemic?

Recorded COVID deaths are for the most part diagnosed by RNA detection. False positives would be very rare.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Out of curiousity, does any reader know what "the flu season" is for places near the equator (Singapore, say)?

According to this paper it just happens all year round, but some places have a little bit of two bumps. But it is mostly just not seasonal.

The seasonal nature of viruses like influenza and rhinovirus is rather strange.

 

[angrysoba]

To add to the "airborne" debate, or maybe to make it redundant, here is a video about microdroplets and how they appear in the air even during conversations.

Unventilated rooms are going to cause a lot more spread of the virus according to this. That would certainly explain how a choir could be so easily infected despite standing 2 metres apart.



As mentioned, the masks may not prevent inhalation, but they could certainly do some job of keeping droplets in from when people sneeze, or talk.

 

[Meadmaker]

I don't know how other countries work, but I've only been diagnosed with 'influenza' if I've returned a positive test for influenza.

Depending on the specific test run, I've seen different results like:

Positive for Influenza
Positive Influenza A
Positive Influenza A (H1N1)

In my entire life, I've never presented with a chest infection, or a cold and been told "you have a flu".

Typically it's "bronchitus"; viral URTI, or "uh oh" you're showing influenza symptoms, we'd better get a test run.

I don't know that I've ever been tested for influenza. I've been tested for pneumonia after having had what was probably influenza. (It was positive once.) I have been told that I probably have influenza, or "the flu", but never that I tested positive for it.

I've been told I had bronchitis a few times, but I gather that's a description of symptoms as opposed to a specific disease.

Maybe now that I'm older, they might be more likely to test for influenza.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

Well, the US has apparently had 763 Covid deaths in the last 24 hours according to worldometer.

So, 10% of people who died yesterday did so from Covid-19. That seems a lot.
...

Over a thousand behind heart disease or cancer .. ( 2017 stats )

Some perspective helps.

Somebody needs to invent a word for that.

Pandemic?

 

[novaphile]

According to this paper it just happens all year round, but some places have a little bit of two bumps. But it is mostly just not seasonal.

The seasonal nature of viruses like influenza and rhinovirus is rather strange.

I was about to post the same thing.

Singapore for example gets two bumps against a background of constant cases of influenza year round.

There is some evidence that higher humidity keeps viruses viable for longer outside the body, but also a lot of speculation that the main reason for respiratory infection spikes is seasonal behaviour change of the victims.

The best way to get someone else's respiratory virus is to be in an enclosed space with that person, with relatively high humidity.

(Like buses/trains in winter)

 

[Skeptical Greg]

..
Maybe now that I'm older, they might be more likely to test for influenza.

During flu ' season ' testing for flu when symptoms are present is pretty common, so that they can look at the efficacy of the vaccine..

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I don't know that I've ever been tested for influenza. I've been tested for pneumonia after having had what was probably influenza. (It was positive once.) I have been told that I probably have influenza, or "the flu", but never that I tested positive for it.

I've been told I had bronchitis a few times, but I gather that's a description of symptoms as opposed to a specific disease.

Maybe now that I'm older, they might be more likely to test for influenza.

In office flu screening tests are now common in medical offices. They weren't always. That might be why you see so many people tested now.

Usually a test for pneumonia is a chest x-ray. A culture for the pathogen may or may not be done. Usually they don't do a culture unless you fail the antibiotic prescribed.

 

[novaphile]

Oh, and apologies to everyone else who has already worked this out.

I've been baffled by ongoing media reports saying that cases are going down, and everything will be good.

The journos are struggling to explain, that the 'rate of increase', is decreasing.

I can see why they're having trouble with that one.

 

[Meadmaker]

During flu ' season ' testing for flu when symptoms are present is pretty common, so that they can look at the efficacy of the vaccine..

I generally don't go to the doctor for flu or flu-like symptoms. There's no treatment anyway.

The last time I went was the time with the pneumonia, because I had a really deep, bad, cough, that lasted two weeks. That was probably 15 years ago.

These days I say that if I have a cough that is not getting better after a week, I would go to a doctor. Basically, if I suspect it has turned into something that could be treated with an anti-biotic, I would go.