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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Right here in my town the Divine Restoration Ministries had a 'Prayer Breakfast'. It lasted three days. This was the second week of March (9-11).


Evangelist Angus Buchan (famous here) and his wife attended. Also Reverend Kenneth Meshoe, leader of the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and Steve Swart, an ACDP member of Parliament.
Also five guests form the US, Israel and France.


All five guests first tested positive, as shortly after did everyone mentioned above.
973 people have been traced, 286 still missing.
Just over 300 tested so far. 67 positive.
 
ceptimus said:
I read that the choir moved the chairs around in the room and put them back after the rehearsal. Maybe they also handed sheet music to each other? So they might have all repeatedly touched the same things - and not just the plates of food.
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Musical Chairs Russian Roulette.
 
Where is the (US) CDC in this crisis?

This NPR story/interview with its Director (Dr Robert Redfield) gives an insight:

"CDC Director On Models For The Months To Come: 'This Virus Is Going To Be With Us'" (link).

Dunno about you, but my confidence in the CDC's ability to lead, in a pandemic, is rather low at the moment.
 
Apologies if this has already been posted.

NPR "If Most Of Your Coronavirus Tests Come Back Positive, You're Not Testing Enough" (link).

For me, a key part is this (my bold):

"In communities where most coronavirus tests are coming back positive, it's a sign there are many more cases there that haven't been found, say World Health Organization officials in a press conference on Monday.

"If 80-90% of the people test positive, you are probably missing a lot of cases," says Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program.

That's because more positives means the tests are being used mainly to confirm obvious cases, and as a result health authorities are not getting a clear picture on the scope of the epidemic in their area.

In places where every close contact and suspected case has been tested, the percent of negative cases is high. Ryan says in countries that have extensive testing, fewer than 12% of their tests are positive."

On all the various sites which report "confirmed covid-19 cases", how many also reliably report the number of tests (from which you can, independently, work out the %-age of positives)?
 
Living in a science fiction disaster story

I think I saw Andrew Cuomo (Governor of New York state, in the US) make a similar comment, and it's certainly been made somewhere upthread (by sts60?), likely more than once.

I may be unusual (but not very, I think); for me a common thought on reading/watching a science fiction disaster story (book/movie/whatever) is "which characters' actions seem to be driven by data? reliable models?"

In this real-life disaster, it may take a little digging but it's extremely likely that lots of people in various CDCs, Health Departments, etc do have data and models. And, more important, good estimates of the uncertainties (etc) in the data. Various teams - outside the official departments or agencies - have made semi-independent attempts to compile data, to develop models, etc. All with varying degrees of completeness and transparency (this includes "academics" who write papers and seek to get them published in relevant peer-reviewed journals).

Also in this real-life disaster, there is a lot of stuff that is not data-driven, not based on testable models, not complete, not transparent, etc. Or, perhaps worse, loosely based on data (etc).

And we, the real-life people who are living in this disaster, have to make decisions and take action (even if it's to not take action). How do we differ from those in the science fiction distaster stories?

Emotional and rational: central to this story is "exponential". We learned what the mathematical function is, often over a half century ago. We've all read how the word has been widely used, in the press, to mean something quite different. Now exponential is biting us. How does it feel? Your head likely worked out what this means, in terms of a very likely future; when do you expect your heart/emotions to catch up?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
There was little to no COVID circulating in the area at the time and that would be a huge unlikely coincidence.



Got another?
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Little to no COVID circulating in the area at that time seems like a massive assumption.

Another problem that lack of broad testing brings.
 
JeanTate said:
Apologies if this has already been posted.

NPR "If Most Of Your Coronavirus Tests Come Back Positive, You're Not Testing Enough" (link).

For me, a key part is this (my bold):

"In communities where most coronavirus tests are coming back positive, it's a sign there are many more cases there that haven't been found, say World Health Organization officials in a press conference on Monday.

"If 80-90% of the people test positive, you are probably missing a lot of cases," says Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program.

That's because more positives means the tests are being used mainly to confirm obvious cases, and as a result health authorities are not getting a clear picture on the scope of the epidemic in their area.

In places where every close contact and suspected case has been tested, the percent of negative cases is high. Ryan says in countries that have extensive testing, fewer than 12% of their tests are positive."

On all the various sites which report "confirmed covid-19 cases", how many also reliably report the number of tests (from which you can, independently, work out the %-age of positives)?
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That is why I want to see the tally of the staff of the Life care system. No rare tests need be expended, interviews would do. It's a cross section of working America, that was definitely exposed. Over 100 subjects. All we know so far: 30+ tested positive, No deaths, ONE ICU case. We don't know % of asymptomatic/immune, mild, flu-like, needed treatment. But it's all there. REAL numbers. Applicable for most people.

Living in a care home? Living in a warren in NYC? Life is different for you.
 
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casebro said:
Living in a care home? Living in a warren in NYC? Life is different for you.
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I suspect it's all population density. Which is what social distancing is all about. I'm in San Diego. I haven't looked at the numbers lately, but last week 203 cases in the county, most in the city proper. 1/15,000. Next city east, La Mesa, ONE case, per 60K.

There is some kind of cube root to density in the transmissibility. I think those slow peaks mentioned above for Iowa just might be valid.

(Well Duh!, I'm overstating the obvious. But making for a deeper understanding, maybe?)
 
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Thanks.

casebro said:
That is why I want to see the tally of the staff of the Life care system.
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Do you mean Life Care Centers of America (a chain, with >250 "locations")?

Or the Life Care Center of Kirkland (where there was a covid-19 outbreak)?

Or ... ?

No rare tests need be expended, interviews would do. It's a cross section of working America, that was definitely exposed. Over 100 subjects. All we know so far: 30+ tested positive, No deaths, ONE ICU case. We don't know % of asymptomatic/immune, mild, flu-like, needed treatment. But it's all there. REAL numbers. For most people.
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If the Life Care Center of Kirkland, then unless most patients (customers? residents?) and staff (and visitors?) were tested, ~at the time, then the data are simply not available.

Now - over a month after the first covid-19 case - only a serology test (of all 100+) would yield meaningful/useful data. And AFAIK no such reliable test is yet available in Seattle.

Living in a care home? Living in a warren in NYC? Life is different for you.
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Indeed.

A somewhat random search turned up this local (north NJ) story: "Eight dead in coronavirus outbreak at Wanaque nursing home" (link).

Excerpt: "Coronavirus outbreaks at the state's nursing homes have claimed 34 lives, including eight each at nursing homes in Wanaque and Montclair. Infections have been reported at more than 70 of the state's 375 long-term care facilities, state health officials said Monday.

The elderly are particularly vulnerable to infection with the virus, as Americans learned when a nursing home outbreak near Seattle claimed 35 lives early in the epidemic."

No doubt similar articles about nursing homes in NY (the state), CT, PA, ... exist and would be fairly easy to find.

And over the next month or three, I'm fairly sure there will be similar articles from/about most, if not all, US states.
 
JeanTate said:
Thanks.


Do you mean Life Care Centers of America (a chain, with >250 "locations")?

Or the Life Care Center of Kirkland (where there was a covid-19 outbreak)?

Or ... ?


If the Life Care Center of Kirkland, then unless most patients (customers? residents?) and staff (and visitors?) were tested, ~at the time, then the data are simply not available.

Now - over a month after the first covid-19 case - only a serology test (of all 100+) would yield meaningful/useful data. And AFAIK no such reliable test is yet available in Seattle.


Indeed.

A somewhat random search turned up this local (north NJ) story: "Eight dead in coronavirus outbreak at Wanaque nursing home" (link).

Excerpt: "Coronavirus outbreaks at the state's nursing homes have claimed 34 lives, including eight each at nursing homes in Wanaque and Montclair. Infections have been reported at more than 70 of the state's 375 long-term care facilities, state health officials said Monday.

The elderly are particularly vulnerable to infection with the virus, as Americans learned when a nursing home outbreak near Seattle claimed 35 lives early in the epidemic."

No doubt similar articles about nursing homes in NY (the state), CT, PA, ... exist and would be fairly easy to find.

And over the next month or three, I'm fairly sure there will be similar articles from/about most, if not all, US states.
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You narrowed it down to Kirkland, I had already harrowed it down to "staff", not the 35 dead residents. Enough with the gotchas. Get data on the staff from the Kirkland Life Care homes. It can be done by phone interview. By the county health department. BUT, it won't be, because it won't involve more doom and gloom, no deaths. The results will not be in keeping with the narrative of "Oh NOEs!! It's going to kills us ALLL!!! ELEVENTY!!!" Or we would have heard. "If it bleeds, it leads. If it doesn't shock, it gets blocked."

I guess at this point I see it as "The absence of negative news is the presence of good news", when the real news would be so easily obtained. But the politicians and the media both need to keep us scared so they can lead us to safety. There is an election coming up. There is always an election coming up.
 
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casebro said:
That is why I want to see the tally of the staff of the Life care system. No rare tests need be expended, interviews would do. It's a cross section of working America, that was definitely exposed. Over 100 subjects. All we know so far: 30+ tested positive, No deaths, ONE ICU case. We don't know % of asymptomatic/immune, mild, flu-like, needed treatment. But it's all there. REAL numbers. Applicable for most people.
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Have you seen the staff there? (I could not find a staff photo)
You live just south of me so perhaps you noticed that certain professions in certain areas can cluster by ethnicity and gender. I'm not sure it would be a good cross-section. Recall that S. Korea only had 2 deaths under 50yo (less than 0.2% of all cases) and care workers are likely to be younger than 50.

For example, at Kaiser in Anaheim, the ER intake staff was mixed but most of the in-patient nurses were Filipino women in their 30's. The anesthesiologists tend to be Chinese men. The midwife RN group my friend used was almost all younger white women. The 2 physical therapy places in Fullerton who treated 91 year old aunt had mostly hispanic staff, also mostly women.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Get something hot. Take it out of the container it comes in and reheat it. Toss the container and wash your hands.

Pizza might be OK if it comes out of the oven and straight into the box. Again take it out of the box, toss the box and wash your hands.
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I've been telling my wife that we should order more pizza, but she is totally against it as she believes it is not food.

Personally I feel the same way about seaweed and miso soup, but I value my life too highly to say it.

Skeptic Ginger said:
For the record, I think there is enough evidence of food as a fomite and some aerosolized spread of COVID. At a minimum pronouncing those means of transmission unlikely when that's based only on speculation and not on evidence violates evidence based medicine principles.
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I also think that aerosolized spread is likely, but probably droplets are worse.

That reminds me. Hayfever season is in full swing now in Japan. Definitely a good time to stay indoors rather than risk being sneezed on.

I hope that that does not lead to a spike in cases.
 
angrysoba said:
That reminds me. Hayfever season is in full swing now in Japan. Definitely a good time to stay indoors rather than risk being sneezed on.

I hope that that does not lead to a spike in cases.
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Yeah .. 'flu'. Sadly we don't get world-wide testing data. I wonder how much Japan is testing. The progress of COVID19 in Japan is quite weird.

Our new cases copied number of test very well, except for few last days. Test keep going up but new cases are going down. For most of the time we were at 6% of positive tests, now we dropped to 3%. That is rather good, actually.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Yeah .. 'flu'. Sadly we don't get world-wide testing data. I wonder how much Japan is testing. The progress of COVID19 in Japan is quite weird.

Our new cases copied number of test very well, except for few last days. Test keep going up but new cases are going down. For most of the time we were at 6% of positive tests, now we dropped to 3%. That is rather good, actually.
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I don't know how much testing is being done right now.

A pitifully small number, apparently. And cases in Tokyo are again on the rise. Looks like Monday's figures are from Sunday. A big dip in cases because...all the clinics are shut!

https://covid19japan.com/

Having said that, something interesting happened today. Everyone using the social media Line received a message from the Ministry of Health asking the recipients to report their symptoms, if any, and various other data about how they conduct themselves to avoid getting the new coronavirus.

That could actually be a good idea, which may have some useful findings.
 
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