Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[angrysoba]

Well, my Facebook feed has photographs from quite a few people who have been on walks to the park and found almost nobody under the cherry blossoms. It could have something to do with the death of Shimura Ken, or it could simply be that people in Japan are listening to the government regulations (or in the case of Tokyo, it may even have something to do with the bizarre snowfall they had at the weekend which is astonishing for the end of March), but people really do seem to be socially isolating more than before.

On top of that, when I have taken a walk the majority of people I see are wearing face masks.

 

[angrysoba]

The main South Korean doctor in charge of infections diseases in Seoul says it can be transmitted through air with singing or yelling.

When people cough, the droplets dont travel far and are heavier. People don't lift their heads to cough or project from the diaphragm.

Yeah! This is also why gyms are considered places for transmission of the virus.

If you want to try out your PR deadlift or squat, and you perform the valsalva maneouvre, you are also likely to project a lot of air from deep within your lungs.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

Anybody watching the numbers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It has projections of hospitalizations and deaths by state (U.S. only). This was only one of two sites I found that actually provide projections. Their projections are now hitting the news.

The projection numbers dropped very significantly today. By a lot. A whole lot. Their peak projections seem very early to me. And much lower than I would expect. I was trying to do my own projections, but mostly gave up because there are too many unknown variables.

Why do they project that the need for ICU beds and ventilators will peak before the peak for regular hospital beds?

And what is up with their projection for Iowa? They are projecting extremely small numbers for Iowa even in comparison to Nebraska and South Dakota and North Dakota where there are far fewer known cases and where there is smaller growth and three should continue to be slower spread.

And they show the peak in Iowa at April 15, which is also what their website says should be the peak for the U.S. But the progression in Iowa is at least 15 days behind places like New York, California, Washington, etc. There is no way the peak will be at the same time.

I have been seeing references to this website more in the news. And statements from local and state officials and hospitals are referencing it directly or seem to be referencing data form it. And making decisions based on this data.

It seems like something is wrong here.

 

[portlandatheist]

Anybody watching the numbers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It has projections of hospitalizations and deaths by state (U.S. only). This was only one of two sites I found that actually provide projections. Their projections are now hitting the news.

The projection numbers dropped very significantly today. By a lot. A whole lot. Their peak projections seem very early to me. And much lower than I would expect. I was trying to do my own projections, but mostly gave up because there are too many unknown variables.

Why do they project that the need for ICU beds and ventilators will peak before the peak for regular hospital beds?

And what is up with their projection for Iowa? They are projecting extremely small numbers for Iowa even in comparison to Nebraska and South Dakota and North Dakota where there are far fewer known cases and where there is smaller growth and three should continue to be slower spread.

And they show the peak in Iowa at April 15, which is also what their website says should be the peak for the U.S. But the progression in Iowa is at least 15 days behind places like New York, California, Washington, etc. There is no way the peak will be at the same time.

I have been seeing references to this website more in the news. And statements from local and state officials and hospitals are referencing it directly or seem to be referencing data form it. And making decisions based on this data.

It seems like something is wrong here.

That page predicts Oregon's peak in 33 days on May 3rd. They were previously predicting it much earlier. May 3rd seems like a very odd prediction to me

 

[The Atheist]

60 people go to choir practice. No one is ill. And they are in a WA State county that didn't ban social gatherings at the time.

Practice date Mar 10.
They avoided touching and shaking hands.

The point that was conveniently missed from the story is that one of the people provided a plate of oranges or mandarins, which some of the people ate.

There's your infection source.

 

[angrysoba]

At a university where I worked until a couple of years ago, a new cluster of cases has emerged. A student who came back from "Europe", went to a graduation party and things escalated from there.

Kyoto, March 30 (Jiji Press)--Eight more Kyoto Sangyo University students were confirmed infected with the new coronavirus on Monday, bringing the total number of students carrying the virus at the university in the western Japan city of Kyoto to 16.

The eight students, from the western Japan prefectures of Kyoto, Wakayama, Kagawa and Tokushima, and the central prefecture of Toyama, attended a graduation party.

The party was attended by 31 people, including one student who was found infected with the coronavirus after traveling to Europe. Infection may be confirmed among more participants of the party.

Link

 

[angrysoba]

The point that was conveniently missed from the story is that one of the people provided a plate of oranges or mandarins, which some of the people ate.

There's your infection source.

I don't know. I think it makes sense to say that singing (and other activities that intensify the use of your lungs) could aerosolize the virus.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

That page predicts Oregon's peak in 33 days on May 3rd. They were previously predicting it much earlier. May 3rd seems like a very odd prediction to me

Was that prediction from the same website? Do you have the data for what that prediction was?

The rate increase in Oregon seems to be less than Iowa. So it doesn't seem off to me. It is showing about the same for Montana.

There is one other site I have found that makes predictions, but it has an agenda for more extreme measures sooner. I don't disagree with the message, but be aware there could be a bias. It is here: https://covidactnow.org/state/OR That gives an Oregon peak at May 18 (with shelter in place with poor compliance).

Do you think a prediction of May 3 is too early or too late? I haven't been closely watching the Oregon numbers, but it seems about right to me. I think maybe a week later than that. But I don't really know the population densities and social practices and such forth.

 

[Samson]

The point that was conveniently missed from the story is that one of the people provided a plate of oranges or mandarins, which some of the people ate.

There's your infection source.

Confirmation bias I fear.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

My concern with the IHME website is that it seems to have changed very suddenly. Two days ago, the prediction were much larger. Suddenly, without explanation, they are much smaller.

And we see anomalies. Iowa is the best example. It went from something like needing 5,000 beds and 500 ICU beds to needing 450 beds and 60 ICU beds. And the projection is way off from other states that should be much less. There are a number of anomalies like this in that data.

And they don't show their raw data or their formulas. Their explanation of their methodology is just general fluff. We can't check if they have a data point wrong. We can't check if there is an error in their formulas. We can't check if maybe the formulas aren't the best. It's just numbers...from somewhere.

And this wholly unverified and unverifiable data is now being used by news sources, government officials, and hospitals to make very important decisions. There should be dozens of sources making these projections and making them publicly available. And they should all be making their data and formulas and methodology available for scrutiny and review.

Instead, we have everybody relying on one data source that does not publicly disclose their data sources, formulas, and specific methodology; and shows huge swings in predictions without giving a reason for the change; and shows unexpected anomalies without explanation.

This is not good.

 

[Cheetah]

COVID-19 patients often infected with other respiratory viruses, preliminary study reports

"Hospitals don't have unlimited access to COVID testing," Brown said . "In some cases, a patient with respiratory symptoms may first be tested for a non-COVID virus. If there is a diagnosis of influenza or rhinovirus, or other respiratory virus, a hospital may discharge the patient without COVID testing, concluding that the alternative diagnosis is the reason for the symptoms."

Anyone have an idea how often this might be happening?

Brown and his colleagues analyzed 562 people recently tested for COVID-19 at Stanford Health Care's Marc and Laura Andreessen Emergency Department. Forty-nine of those people tested positive for infection with SARS-CoV-2.
Of the 562 people, 517 were also tested for the presence of other common respiratory viruses, such as influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, adenovirus and several types of pneumonia. One hundred and twenty seven received a positive result for one of these other respiratory viruses.
Of the people tested for both SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses, eleven people—or about 22% of the 49 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 8.7% of the 127 people with other respiratory viruses—were found to be co-infected with both kinds of viruses.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The point that was conveniently missed from the story is that one of the people provided a plate of oranges or mandarins, which some of the people ate.

There's your infection source.

You mean the food that isn't supposed to be a risk?

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

COVID-19 patients often infected with other respiratory viruses, preliminary study reports

I suspected that might be the case. I assume that means there is a significant chance of a mutation of SARS-CoV-2.

 

[Sherkeu]

And they don't show their raw data or their formulas. Their explanation of their methodology is just general fluff. We can't check if they have a data point wrong. We can't check if there is an error in their formulas. We can't check if maybe the formulas aren't the best. It's just numbers...from somewhere.

This is not good.

Their projection for California is way off. The assumptions they have at the top are wrong. The margin of error is huge (eg, total deaths in CA range from 1k to 8k!). I wouldn't put much stock in it.

 

[EHocking]

Their projection for California is way off. The assumptions they have at the top are wrong. The margin of error is huge (eg, total deaths in CA range from 1k to 8k!). I wouldn't put much stock in it.

as usual XKCD has your answer.

 

[pipelineaudio]

You mean the food that isn't supposed to be a risk?

He's been saying food is a risk this whole time. Its the well respected food sites and I think some of the actual government sites that are saying food isnt a risk

https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safet...-safety-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
"Currently there is no evidence of food or food packaging being associated with transmission of COVID-19"

I tell you, its only been a few days and i am SICK of eating from cans! I would love to get some take out but I don't trust any of this

 

[EHocking]

He's been saying food is a risk this whole time. Its the well respected food sites and I think some of the actual government sites that are saying food isnt a risk

https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safet...-safety-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
"Currently there is no evidence of food or food packaging being associated with transmission of COVID-19"

I tell you, its only been a few days and i am SICK of eating from cans! I would love to get some take out but I don't trust any of this

just decant the contents from the packaging to bowl or plates and dispose of the packaging. Then wash your hands.
Most takeaway food is not handled post cooking, such as pizza, Chinese, Indian, Thai etc.

Or make your own. Tacos and variants are simple to make - use chicken instead of beef. Fish works as well.

Or cook your own. At least then you can be sure of how it has been handled. Fresh fruit and veg can be washed when you get home. Again just decant to a clean container and dispose of the packaging first.

I mean, it’s not as though you don’t have the time to cook?
ETA : suggestions

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

He's been saying food is a risk this whole time. Its the well respected food sites and I think some of the actual government sites that are saying food isnt a risk

https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safet...-safety-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
"Currently there is no evidence of food or food packaging being associated with transmission of COVID-19"

I tell you, its only been a few days and i am SICK of eating from cans! I would love to get some take out but I don't trust any of this

Get something hot. Take it out of the container it comes in and reheat it. Toss the container and wash your hands.

Pizza might be OK if it comes out of the oven and straight into the box. Again take it out of the box, toss the box and wash your hands.


For the record, I think there is enough evidence of food as a fomite and some aerosolized spread of COVID. At a minimum pronouncing those means of transmission unlikely when that's based only on speculation and not on evidence violates evidence based medicine principles.

 

[Meridian]

On the choir cluster, is their any information about how much they meet up outside rehearsals? For many choirs it could be quite a lot. So it might be that a few people were infected at the rehearsal; some days later they infected a number of their friends (several of whom are also in the choir) etc, and after 19 days it's spread to include a lot of the choir members, but not as a result of that single rehearsal.

 

[ceptimus]

I read that the choir moved the chairs around in the room and put them back after the rehearsal. Maybe they also handed sheet music to each other? So they might have all repeatedly touched the same things - and not just the plates of food.