Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[slyjoe]

I don't trust Chinese statistics, but 21 mln dead is impossible to hide even in North Korea. So this article is BS.

First, this is news source that I never heard about. It cites another news source that I never heard about. That's nice little red flag.

Second, 21 mln versus 1 386 mln? That's fraction of percent.

And I would be interested in statistics of cellphone usage from previous few years. For some reason article didn't bother with that.

Not quite what you are looking for:

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

The company takes "mobility" data from cellphone use and shows how much mobility has been reduced. by location Kind of interesting. What surprised me was how low (i.e.; 43% reduction in mobility) results in a sore of "A" at my location. I would have thought that would be a "C".

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That point has been raised a few times.

There isn't a definitive answer at this stage, but a few of have suggested it does look like that. Happens with HIV, I believe - a higher initial dose equals more rapid progress of the disease.

Rapid progression maybe but certainly not immunity by any sense of the world.

And while one might have a slower progression to AIDS, it doesn't matter in the long run. Except now there's treatment to keep the virus at bay.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Someone just died a few miles away from us. 48 years old, no 'conditions' fit and healthy. First showed symptoms on Friday, died today.

 

[Meadmaker]

I am naively wondering if this virus can best be thought of as a dose of poison.
A lot and you get sick and die fast through to a tiny amount and you hardly notice, the body fights fast and you recover quickly.

The first whistle blower for example first category.

Then the question if a small dose generates immunity.

Here's the way I think of it. I have no idea if this is accurate, so I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong. (That usually isn't a problem around here.)

As soon as you get infected, there's a race. The virus starts multiplying, and you immune system starts producing antibodies. If the virus multiplies enough to damage your organs before getting wiped out by your immune system, you lose.

So, with a small dose, your immune system gets the jump on things and you win. However, with a large initial dose, the virus gets a big head start.

 

[Mader Levap]

21 millions over two months is roughly 10 times the usual death rate.

What? 21 mln is alleged amount of removed cellphone accounts, not people dead.

Oh, you think only possible reason for cancelling cellphone account is that owner died? Ha. Ha. No.

So, with a small dose, your immune system gets the jump on things and you win.

That's pretty much idea behind vaccines. You get bunch of weakened or dead nasties inside you and your body learns from it in relatively safe way.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

I am bit familiar with source. It is mostly computer hardware news and reviews site. Occasionally they post related news like this one.

On the other hand there are reports from Wu-chan about lots of urns being handed out leading to estimates of 21 thousands dead from virus (after substracting expected non-virus) mortality.

A lot of cancelled accounts might be business related.

There was an article in Newsweek (apologies to anyone who posted this already):
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covi...ata-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

I wasn't convinced. They based their conclusion on 2 things:
1) The increase in the number of cremations in Wuhan between 2019 and 2018 was a few hundred more than if the number of cremations had increased at exactly the same rate as the population.
2) The number of urns ordered after the lockdown was (IIRC, since for some reason I can't actually load the article any longer) more than double the number of deaths that typically occur in Wuhan during a period of that length. But my recollection is that their claim of the typical number of deaths was implausibly low.

 

[angrysoba]

I am naively wondering if this virus can best be thought of as a dose of poison.
A lot and you get sick and die fast through to a tiny amount and you hardly notice, the body fights fast and you recover quickly.

The first whistle blower for example first category.

Then the question if a small dose generates immunity.

From what I have heard on a number of podcasts (for example, Sam Harris's conversation with Amesh Adalja, MD, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security), the dose can indeed be a factor in the outcome.

This is what puts healthcare workers (many of whom are comparatively young or don't have underlying health issues

That said, I think it's not a safe assumption that a light viral simply leads to a mild form and immunity, because there could be many other factors involved as well.

But large families should not stay in the same room as each other if the members get sick as they will be increasing their viral dose.

Ah! There is a link to CEBM:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/

 

[Arcade22]

Country     Total       Total     Total      New        Total            Active    Serious  Tot Cases/  Deaths/
                 Cases      New     Deaths  Deaths    Recovered    Cases     Critical   Million        Million

[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/"]Australia[/URL]    4,163      +528       17        +3       244               3,902           28         163     0.7  Jan 24
[URL="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/"]Sweden[/URL]     3,700      +253      110       +5         16               3,574          255         366    11  Jan 30

What are those figures telling us? Sweden is doing little do manage Covid-19 but Australia is.

You can't compare numbers naively like you are doing now since you don't know whether they are being recorded in the equivalent manner.

 

[marting]

Infectiousness started from 2.5 days before symptom onset and reached its peak at 0.6 days before symptom onset

IF this true, it's going to reduce the value of rapid contact tracing. Not good.

 

[The Atheist]

A long way's back I posted a Flu study in mice where dose v outcome was studied and indeed dose was a significant factor in the intensity of disease. Seems like the same would apply to coronavirus.

Yep, I'm deeply suspicious.

All in good time, I expect.

Rapid progression maybe but certainly not immunity by any sense of the world.

Sorry, I should have made it clear I was offering no comment on the immunity, since we don't know yet.

And while one might have a slower progression to AIDS, it doesn't matter in the long run. Except now there's treatment to keep the virus at bay.

That's why Covid's different to AIDS and it might mean that a lower initial dose gives the body an extra day - or even few hours - to ramp up the antibodies, leading to a milder dose. HIV obviously can't have that.

From what I have heard on a number of podcasts (for example, Sam Harris's conversation with Amesh Adalja, MD, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security), the dose can indeed be a factor in the outcome.

This is what puts healthcare workers (many of whom are comparatively young or don't have underlying health issues

That said, I think it's not a safe assumption that a light viral simply leads to a mild form and immunity, because there could be many other factors involved as well.

Thanks for that.

I certainly wouldn't assume that it's true, but the evidence is certainly building up and there's a heap of historical evidence in your link as well. It also plays into my theory that fingers in mouths/eyes/nose is more important than aerosols & sneezing/coughing.

 

[EHocking]

You can't compare numbers naively like you are doing now since you don't know whether they are being recorded in the equivalent manner.

Even within data sets.

Worldometers.info's sources are generally the mass media and only occasionally from respective countrie's or WHO's alerts.

For instance, on the Australia GovHealth alerts there is no split of numbers between mild and severe or critical. I guess this is being gleaned from hospital reports via MM?

I stopped reassuring myself with the Worldometer 99% mild cases figure after I tried to find their source for this information.

 

[Samson]

Here's the way I think of it. I have no idea if this is accurate, so I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong. (That usually isn't a problem around here.)

As soon as you get infected, there's a race. The virus starts multiplying, and you immune system starts producing antibodies. If the virus multiplies enough to damage your organs before getting wiped out by your immune system, you lose.

So, with a small dose, your immune system gets the jump on things and you win. However, with a large initial dose, the virus gets a big head start.

Exactly what I mean.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

OK, here's one to play around with.

60 people go to choir practice. No one is ill. And they are in a WA State county that didn't ban social gatherings at the time.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/washington-choir-rehearsal-turns-deadly-after-coronavirus-kills-2/

At the time, no cases had been reported in the county, schools and business remained open and large gatherings had yet to be officially prohibited, according to the report.

Practice date Mar 10.

Sixty members showed up for a rehearsal that lasted two-and-a-half hours, according to the LA Times. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door.

They avoided touching and shaking hands.

But nearly three weeks later, dozens of members started to feel sick. All 28 singers who were tested for the deadly bug were found to be infected, health officials told the paper. Another 17 exhibited symptoms but never got tested, either because the tests were unavailable — or because they believed that only the most severe cases were eligible.

Two singers died of the infection, according to the report.

That's not exactly a rapid onset for most of them.

So, airborne? Do we have the incubation period too short?

Speculate away.


That's in addition to this, same county, I posted about it earler:

Skagit County investigates COVID-19 cluster; expects significant rise in cases

Skagit County Public Health announced it is investigating a cluster of COVID-19 cases related to a meeting earlier this month, and the department’s health officer is urging people to stay home.

Eleven people who attended a meeting in early March in Skagit County have tested positive for COVID-19, and 32 attendees are showing symptoms and are considered probable cases, Skagit County Public Health Officer Howard Leibrand said in an interview Saturday afternoon....

Leibrand said Public Health has contacted all 56 individuals who attended ...

I wish I had all the information the public health collected about these 2 clusters.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

OK, here's one to play around with.

60 people go to choir practice. No one is ill. And they are in a WA State county that didn't ban social gatherings at the time.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/washington-choir-rehearsal-turns-deadly-after-coronavirus-kills-2/


Practice date Mar 10.
They avoided touching and shaking hands.



That's not exactly a rapid onset for most of them.

So, airborne? Do we have the incubation period too short?

Speculate away.

Inconclusive.

Too many unaccounted variables.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Here's the way I think of it. I have no idea if this is accurate, so I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong. (That usually isn't a problem around here.)

As soon as you get infected, there's a race. The virus starts multiplying, and you immune system starts producing antibodies. If the virus multiplies enough to damage your organs before getting wiped out by your immune system, you lose.

So, with a small dose, your immune system gets the jump on things and you win. However, with a large initial dose, the virus gets a big head start.

There are so many variables besides inoculating dose. How are you eliminating the effect of other variables?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Inconclusive.

Too many unaccounted variables.

Like what?

BTW, I didn't direct the outcome of the speculating.

 

[angrysoba]

OK, here's one to play around with.

60 people go to choir practice. No one is ill. And they are in a WA State county that didn't ban social gatherings at the time.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/washington-choir-rehearsal-turns-deadly-after-coronavirus-kills-2/


Practice date Mar 10.
They avoided touching and shaking hands.



That's not exactly a rapid onset for most of them.

So, airborne? Do we have the incubation period too short?

Speculate away.

Wow!

I think it is difficult to know.

I think there is definitely a reason for thinking it could be airborne in terms of transmission. Particularly when people are singing, as that involves expelling a lot of air from the lungs.

One thing that came up in the South Korean case, was that people were very close together and repeated chanting "Amen!" (from what I remember), and this was speculated as one reason for the transmission (at least here on Japanese TV they said this).

But in the South Korean example, it was also pointed out that they held hands, and also ate together (Do you know if the choir practice involved going on anywhere else such as a restaurant or pub afterwards?).

But yeah, also it is very suggestive of a long incubation period. It certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Around the time of the Diamond Princess, the WHO were saying that incubation could be asymptomatic for up to two weeks, but also mentioned that some reports suggested an even longer period. Yet, because that two week figure seemed to be the most commonly cited, then the quarantine on the Diamond Princess (and those of countries repatriating their citizens from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess) was set at two weeks. I wonder if the number just stuck and became a default assumption without any further analysis.

As I said to lionking, we definitely cannnot presume that the life cycle of the virus itself is only two weeks. According to the Worldometer figures, there are still around 100 "active cases" from the Diamond Princess and 15 are still listed as serious or critical (as an aside, I don't know if this means they have been on a ventilator for around a month now, and if so, I imagine they must have a pretty grim prognosis - IANAD!).

Anyway, sorry, no answers, only questions from me.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

15 Out the the 60 not accounted for. More information about them might be more interesting than the other 45.

Still contagious but not symptomatic?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Wow!

I think it is difficult to know.

I think there is definitely a reason for thinking it could be airborne in terms of transmission. Particularly when people are singing, as that involves expelling a lot of air from the lungs.

One thing that came up in the South Korean case, was that people were very close together and repeated chanting "Amen!" (from what I remember), and this was speculated as one reason for the transmission (at least here on Japanese TV they said this).

But in the South Korean example, it was also pointed out that they held hands, and also ate together (Do you know if the choir practice involved going on anywhere else such as a restaurant or pub afterwards?).

But yeah, also it is very suggestive of a long incubation period. It certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Around the time of the Diamond Princess, the WHO were saying that incubation could be asymptomatic for up to two weeks, but also mentioned that some reports suggested an even longer period. Yet, because that two week figure seemed to be the most commonly cited, then the quarantine on the Diamond Princess (and those of countries repatriating their citizens from Wuhan and the Diamond Princess) was set at two weeks. I wonder if the number just stuck and became a default assumption without any further analysis.

As I said to lionking, we definitely cannnot presume that the life cycle of the virus itself is only two weeks. According to the Worldometer figures, there are still around 100 "active cases" from the Diamond Princess and 15 are still listed as serious or critical (as an aside, I don't know if this means they have been on a ventilator for around a month now, and if so, I imagine they must have a pretty grim prognosis - IANAD!).

Anyway, sorry, no answers, only questions from me.

No answers needed. I like the additional information to add to the speculating.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Like what?

BTW, I didn't direct the outcome of the speculating.

Each of these people had innumerable other opportunities to get infected in the same time frame.