Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Meridian]

All these quarantine, and other prophylactic measures like masks are only meant to lower the peak and stretch out the curve, thereby lessening the load on medical resources. Which will only lower the deaths by how many people are saved by the medical care. Because meantime we are only biding our time until we have all been exposed.

Why not try to get R0 below 1? It doesn't seem impossible at least in some countries. (See e.g., https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/.) And "The Hammer and the Dance" as linked previously.

Also, even slowing the spread of disease actually decreases the final number infected, not just spreads it out. Because the point at which recovery overtakes spread happens at a small proportion of the population infected. (You need less immunity to get herd immunity if R0 is smaller.)

I think it's pretty clear we should just be doing pretty much everything we can to reduce transmission now, and very much hoping that gets us below 1. It's still good even if not.

 

[Mader Levap]

I don't trust Chinese statistics, but 21 mln dead is impossible to hide even in North Korea. So this article is BS.

First, this is news source that I never heard about. It cites another news source that I never heard about. That's nice little red flag.

Second, 21 mln versus 1 386 mln? That's fraction of percent.

And I would be interested in statistics of cellphone usage from previous few years. For some reason article didn't bother with that.

 

[wasapi]

It's mostly a rumor now .. but !

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/7152...eath-toll-21-million-phones-vanish/index.html

And interesting and frightening article.

 

[The Atheist]

I read that you are not in danger by eating the virus. The important thing is to keep it from the windpipe and the lungs. Apparently, the digestive enzymes enzymes doing a decent job of destroying the virus.

The danger in having it in your mouth isn't as much getting into the digestive tract but the mouth being connected to the nose and throat.

I don't trust Chinese statistics, but 21 mln dead is impossible to hide even in North Korea. So this article is BS.

I don't know why this point has to keep being repeated.

Mass graves for a few thousand Iranians were obvious enough to be seen and photographed - 21 million is a ridiculously large number and not supported by any evidence at all. No sign of mass graves/disposal, no sign of vast fleets of trucks picking them up and taking them away, not a single report of millions of uncounted deaths.

Stupid Russian disinformation.

 

[dudalb]

For a websie that calls itself "Reason" there is a lot of irratinal thought and magical thinking about the Corona Virus here:

https://reason.com/

Surpise,there was also a lot of the same about Global Warming.
No wonder my youthful flirtation with Libertariansim was brief;too much abolute dogmatism in their beleife that ALL government is evil.....

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Millions of Chinese don't disappear without everyone noticing.
Much more likely is that the Authorities have discovered illegitimate phones during their total tracking efforts of contacts of people who tested positive.

 

[Planigale]

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ve-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

It was based on a sample of only 165 people, so..

Actually that is good, early on I posted stats from China suggesting mortality if you got on a ventilator was 95%. I suggested ITU had no value. I am still concerned that focussing intervention and resources on ITU may be inappropriate. Too much may be put into a small group with low chance of survival, whilst the resources could be allocated to a larger group with a better chance of survival. Appropriate allocation of resources is a difficult issue.

 

[blutoski]

The danger in having it in your mouth isn't as much getting into the digestive tract but the mouth being connected to the nose and throat.

And oral lesions would be vulnerable. All those lip biters out there. Cankers.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I read that you are not in danger by eating the virus. The important thing is to keep it from the windpipe and the lungs. Apparently, the digestive enzymes enzymes doing a decent job of destroying the virus.

And yet if you get a droplet IN YOUR MOUTH it somehow differs.

Forgive me if I continue to express my disgust that suddenly health care officials dropped the need for evidence based medicine claiming things that sound good but have not been tested.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

For America, hurricane season starts in 2 months. That is going to sting during a lethal virus pandemic. Conflicting orders.

1. Stay inside your home.
2. Evacuate.

Old people and the high-risk people will have a choice. Become infected during the evacuation or stay and endure the hurricane.

Evacuate to crowded shelters.

 

[William Parcher]

The author of the 21 million article is a PC Gamer.

It's mostly a rumor now .. but !

I read that he is developing his own game. It's called "JFK 6 Guns".

 

[Dr.Sid]

Second, 21 mln versus 1 386 mln? That's fraction of percent.

21 millions over two months is roughly 10 times the usual death rate. Not that unthinkable. That one place in Italy showed 5 times the usual death rate. And it's not over.

It's more like the current buzz rather than some fact. But I'm here for the buzz too

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Prince Charles, out of isolation after 7 days despite mild symptoms? WTF?

Coronavirus UK: Why has the advice on self-isolation changed from 14 days to 7 days?

As part of the “delay” phase the UK has now entered, Mr Johnson also said anyone with a "new, continuous" cough or fever is advised to self-isolate for seven days.

This is a week shorter than recommended by many other nations.

As part of the Government’s main message on self-isolation, it said: “if you have symptoms of coronavirus infection (COVID-19), however mild, do not leave your home for 7 days from when your symptoms started”.

The decision was explained with this: “The 14 day period is for those who have had exposure to a confirmed case but have not shown symptoms.

 

[Samson]

I am naively wondering if this virus can best be thought of as a dose of poison.
A lot and you get sick and die fast through to a tiny amount and you hardly notice, the body fights fast and you recover quickly.

The first whistle blower for example first category.

Then the question if a small dose generates immunity.

 

[Klimax]

I don't trust Chinese statistics, but 21 mln dead is impossible to hide even in North Korea. So this article is BS.

First, this is news source that I never heard about. It cites another news source that I never heard about. That's nice little red flag.

Second, 21 mln versus 1 386 mln? That's fraction of percent.

And I would be interested in statistics of cellphone usage from previous few years. For some reason article didn't bother with that.

I am bit familiar with source. It is mostly computer hardware news and reviews site. Occasionally they post related news like this one.

On the other hand there are reports from Wu-chan about lots of urns being handed out leading to estimates of 21 thousands dead from virus (after substracting expected non-virus) mortality.

A lot of cancelled accounts might be business related.

 

[pipelineaudio]

I am not so reassured by so many articles and many from seemingly legit sources saying "you can't get the virus from eating food"

 

[smartcooky]

Guardian is saying like 50% if you go on a ventilator

Correlation is not necessarily causation.

Its not 50% because you have gone on the ventilator, its 50% because you are ill enough to need to go on a ventilator.

 

[The Atheist]

I am naively wondering if this virus can best be thought of as a dose of poison.
A lot and you get sick and die fast through to a tiny amount and you hardly notice, the body fights fast and you recover quickly.

The first whistle blower for example first category.

Then the question if a small dose generates immunity.

That point has been raised a few times.

There isn't a definitive answer at this stage, but a few of have suggested it does look like that. Happens with HIV, I believe - a higher initial dose equals more rapid progress of the disease.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Correlation is not necessarily causation.
.

Pretty sure even the Guardian wasn't saying that ventilators are killing people

 

[marting]

I am naively wondering if this virus can best be thought of as a dose of poison.
A lot and you get sick and die fast through to a tiny amount and you hardly notice, the body fights fast and you recover quickly.

The first whistle blower for example first category.

Then the question if a small dose generates immunity.

A long way's back I posted a Flu study in mice where dose v outcome was studied and indeed dose was a significant factor in the intensity of disease. Seems like the same would apply to coronavirus. But obviously there's also going to be a great deal of variability amongst the human hosts so one would need a pretty large study in addition to including only those where initial exposure occurred at a known time.