Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[a_unique_person]

Sweden is going for a low key approach as well. Gyms open, etc.


http://theconversation.com/sweden-u...s-approach-heres-the-science-behind-it-134926


Well known climate change denier Bjorn Lomborg approves.

 

[smartcooky]

Daily Mail is reporting on the research of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

technically they are repeating a report by the Telegraph, reporting on research by MIT published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
So The source is good

Yes the source may be good, but as smartcooky pointed out, how practical or even possible is it for people to seperate so far that the possibility of infection is zero?

At least half of the post was aimed at the Daily Fail and other outlets.
Note the bolding of fact-checked.
The Telegraphs article
Social distancing: new study suggests two metres is not enough

The two-metre social distancing rule being used to keep people apart may need to be four times bigger to prevent coronavirus from spreading, a new study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests​

is arguable less sensational, but no more accurate than the Fail’s article, and no more closely fact-checked.

Daily Fail
The 26 FOOT sneeze zone: Coronavirus social distancing limit is at least four times TOO SHORT because infectious droplets can fly much further than current 6ft restriction, study warns

The public are currently being asked to keep a distance from each other of at least 6ft 6in.

But a new study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests the gap should be four times bigger at around 26 feet.​

So, I checked the actual source.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852

It does NOT exactly say what the Fail claimed it says. Although they mention social distancing may not be enough, what they are really talking about is the care of infected patients and the dangers to people caring for them.

"Given the turbulent puff cloud dynamic model, recommendations for separations of 3 to 6 feet (1-2 m) may underestimate the distance, timescale, and persistence over which the cloud and its pathogenic payload travel, thus generating an underappreciated potential exposure range for a health care worker. For these and other reasons, wearing of appropriate personal protection equipment is vitally important for health care workers caring for patients who may be infected, even if they are farther than 6 feet away from a patient."

Turbulent gas cloud dynamics should influence the design and recommended use of surgical and other masks."​

As I suspected, the Fail and the Telegraph are over-egging the pudding, and imposing their own layman's interpretation on a scientific document.

This is all about the R_x number; the number of people that an infected person is likely to infect - R_>1 causes an exponential infection curve - Covid 19 seems to have a number somewhere between R₂ and R₃ and that is what makes it so dangerous

Social Distancing of 2m/6 feet is calculated to make the number R_<1 which will help top flatten that curve.

 

[Cheetah]

A team (set up by the South African government) to examine alternative methods of treating Covid-19 identified an old mechanical, pneumatically driven (no electrics) ventilator developed 40 years ago by British company Penlon.

Letter to Penlon:
"Our group that is composed of doctors, engineers, industrialists and government, we have identified the Nuffield 200 vent as the most ideal ventilator to introduce into the market. Clearly the opportunity to procure thousands of these units from your esteemed company immediately is not realistic.
We have chosen to start reverse engineering some old N200 units that we have, with the view to establishing a large scale modular manufacturing setup with the ultimate aim to produce these units in significant numbers in the next week or so.
We are appealing to your esteemed company on humanitarian grounds to urgently make all your production drawings and quality documents available to us so that we can fast track this development."

Penlon chief executive Guru Krishnamoorthy responded on Tuesday: "We are currently marketing Nuffield ventilators and hence transferring all drawings etc would be difficult."

Corbett responded to Krishnamoorthy the following day, saying "motivated by humanitarian reasons I am willing to beg you to reconsider your decision".

He did not receive a response.





UK company seemingly won't help SA with ventilators marketed as simple solution for coronavirus

 

[catsmate]

FTFY

I have no clue what research led to a conclusion about smallpox. Are you perhaps referring to plague?

IIRC: The CCR5 deletion was selected/amplified in the population after the plague in Europe.

One copy might offer slight resistance to HIV infection, 2 copies offers a fair amount of resistance to HIV infection. But it does not offer guaranteed immunity by any stretch.

Nature disagrees.

 

[Tero]

This doesnt say anything about coughing but I could be wrong
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/coronavirus-super-spreader-infects-57-in-hospital-202002091618

It was another GI type case so I suppose airborne fart particles could be it too? Its crazy how little we seem to know right now. And yet so crazy how much we do know as well

The virus is known to spread thru air, so any interior spaces become very dangerous. You could probably stand outdoors with the person a few meters away and not get infected.

The masks are useless, especially surgical masks. Those do help surgeons not spread any bacteria to patients.

If you have never been fitted to an n95 mask, don't bother with those either. I have, and I have a few masks left for yard work. I don't use those.

Best investment would be disposable gloves. I wore those the last 15 years in the lab, so I have trained myself not to touch my face. They had chemicals on them. I do not touch my face even with leather gloves, I have so trained myself.

 

[angrysoba]

The virus is known to spread thru air, so any interior spaces become very dangerous. You could probably stand outdoors with the person a few meters away and not get infected.

The masks are useless, especially surgical masks. Those do help surgeons not spread any bacteria to patients.
If you have never been fitted to an n95 mask, don't bother with those either. I have, and I have a few masks left for yard work. I don't use those.

Okay, a couple of points here:

1. "known to spread through air"?

My understanding is that this is in very limited circumstances when the virus can become aerosolized, such as certain medical procedures. Otherwise it is mostly passed through droplets, is it not? If I misunderstand, or am wrong on this, could you please provide a link to this.

2. "masks are useless"

I am very doubtful of this despite having seen it claimed very often. In one of the podcasts that pipelineaudio posted TWiV, the expert (with covid-19) who is being interviewed mentions studies that show mask wearing reduces transmission of the virus (I believe there are also studies showing this is true in things like flu which are also passed on in droplets more than as an airborne virus). He explains how in China mask-wearing is almost ubiquitous now and suggests that the lack of mask-wearing (among other things) are one of the reasons is could be spreading so fast in the US (and other places).

Do you have some evidence for saying masks are useless other than an assumption that if it passes through the air the masks cannot have any effect?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

For people ill with high fever, cough, severe headache and muscle aches in Jan, don't forget influenza was circulating widely then.

COVID - definitely possible
Influenza - much greater odds.

Single data point/anecdote: Karen tested negative for influenza. For some reason, same clinic did not test me.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Regarding my linking to an article saying coronavirus may have been circulating in the US earlier than we thought, and that my wife and I possibly may have had it...

No.

Well, at least I appreciate your certainty - and brevity!

Our local walk-in clinic, where we got diagnosed with bronchitis and sinusitis and prescribed meds, said they were swamped with cases like ours that were not the flu*, but differed from the common cold in symptoms, severity and duration. The local Walmart’s shelves were out of several brands of cough syrup.

Anyway, since no one back then was tested for coronavirus, I just don’t see any evidence that would validate your certainty, and at least circumstantial evidence that something different was circulating, at least here in E Tennessee.

*I mentioned my wife’s test for the flu came back negative. A week later they did not test me, though my symptoms mirrored hers, albeit behind by about a week. My thought is they had enough negative tests for flu that the working assumption became that this was something else going around.

 

[Dr.Sid]

The virus is known to spread thru air, so any interior spaces become very dangerous. You could probably stand outdoors with the person a few meters away and not get infected.

The masks are useless, especially surgical masks. Those do help surgeons not spread any bacteria to patients.

Masks are to protect others, not you. Here the masks are mandatory. Also if you have respirator with exhale valve, you have you wear mask over it.

 

[PartSkeptic]

As far as I am concerned masks help to stop getting the virus. A bandana may only be 20% effective but any improvement is helpful. Every single person in Wuhan wore a mask. In my opinion there are so few masks available that this is government misinformation to stop panic and keep masks for the medics.

Here in SA my wife and her friends and family are all very worried. We will not be going out of our house during the 21 day lock-down except for once a week I will go get some veggies, milk and bread. I will use an industrial mask, nitrile gloves and an industrial face shield. I will carry my own hand sanitizer.

Having seen this coming for a while (as you all are so aware of) I am fully prepared and we did not have to do any panic buying. I even had my doctor prescribe twice the anti-fungals so I could build up a stock over the last 6 to 12 months.

For the USA it is just the beginning. It may be that test kits if widely used could be used in place of quarantine and PPE. But I doubt it. The military planners should have had this as one of their top scenarios. Look at the denial and the disagreements. The Chinese saw the seriousness and acted quickly and harshly. Democracy has its drawbacks.

And I also have an oxygen machine at home, a oximeter, blood pressure kit, and two CPAP machines.

 

[angrysoba]

Masks are to protect others, not you. Here the masks are mandatory. Also if you have respirator with exhale valve, you have you wear mask over it.

I think the protection may go both ways, but that's a good point.

One of the best heuristics from what I understand is not to think about how likely it might be that you can catch the virus but to imagine you have the virus and you must do what you can to stop it spreading.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

3 days of 100+ case increases in my state. Deaths starting.

Our shelter order is falling apart, people out everywhere.

Learn from our mistakes

 

[PartSkeptic]

Oh, by the way, a mask is only good for a short time. I learned the hard way that repeated use causes germs to build up and they get to be a source of infection. And strictly speaking, the masks should be changed each time a doctor goes from one possible infected patient to the other.

I got a lot of masks before they ran out. A box full. But I will use a cut-up old bedsheet with rubber bands and wash it frequently. For a clear face shield, one can use the overhead projector transparent sheets and some tape. For gloves I know people are using plastics bags with rubber bands to keep them on.

A very important issue is taking off the PPE. That is where medical staff are getting infected. A friend of ours is tasked with visiting confirmed cases here in South Africa in order to do tracing. I have given her a lot of advice.

I will be making my own ventilator here at home. I am very inventive and have all the stock (mostly wood and plastic) and the tools to do so. It should not take long. It will not have ball bearings and the latest electronics but it should work for at least 30 days.

 

[Cheetah]

Good luck PartSkeptic.
I have a small compressor and duck tape.

 

[Klimax]

Okay, a couple of points here:

1. "known to spread through air"?

My understanding is that this is in very limited circumstances when the virus can become aerosolized, such as certain medical procedures. Otherwise it is mostly passed through droplets, is it not? If I misunderstand, or am wrong on this, could you please provide a link to this.

2. "masks are useless"

I am very doubtful of this despite having seen it claimed very often. In one of the podcasts that pipelineaudio posted TWiV, the expert (with covid-19) who is being interviewed mentions studies that show mask wearing reduces transmission of the virus (I believe there are also studies showing this is true in things like flu which are also passed on in droplets more than as an airborne virus). He explains how in China mask-wearing is almost ubiquitous now and suggests that the lack of mask-wearing (among other things) are one of the reasons is could be spreading so fast in the US (and other places).

Do you have some evidence for saying masks are useless other than an assumption that if it passes through the air the masks cannot have any effect?

I think the protection may go both ways, but that's a good point.

One of the best heuristics from what I understand is not to think about how likely it might be that you can catch the virus but to imagine you have the virus and you must do what you can to stop it spreading.

Looks like time to repost study:
Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?
(It is freely available!)

 

[Klimax]

3 days of 100+ case increases in my state. Deaths starting.

Our shelter order is falling apart, people out everywhere.

Learn from our mistakes

Is it not enforced?

 

[casebro]

This doesnt say anything about coughing but I could be wrong
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/coronavirus-super-spreader-infects-57-in-hospital-202002091618

It was another GI type case so I suppose airborne fart particles could be it too? Its crazy how little we seem to know right now. And yet so crazy how much we do know as well

Good thing I stocked up on N95 panties before word got out.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

I wonder how many deaths are going to be caused by people killing themselves with home-made ventilators and other contraptions?

 

[Marcus]

Article discussing how to share ventilators.


PulmCrit – Splitting ventilators to provide titrated support to a large group of patients


In short, it can be done but it's not ideal.

A glass artist friend of mine is repurposing his output to provide splitters for ventilators. Evidently the usual ones (plastic?) are in short supply.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Is it not enforced?

No, voluntary. Lots of downtown jobs shut down, bars and restaurants shut down (liquor boards and health depts give control for that). Our Governor continues to resist statewide action, but now starting to mobilize national guard.

It's the mixed messages. President says it's fine, Governor wiffles and waffles, city says stay at home, but no enforcement.

People concentrate into the fewer and fewer remaining things deemed essential for totally not essential things.