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Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

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Would that be the Trump who wanted to cut CDC funding 16% in February, disbanded the NSC.DHS pandemic units, firing the entire pandemic response chain of command in 2018 and appointed incompetent cronies and yes-men into management positions?

Oh and who cut US$15 billion from US national health spending, and reduced g the disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. Not to mention abolishing the Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.
Trump. With the connivance of the Republicans in office.

Who wanted 40% cuts in the USPHS Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent?

Covid-19 is not unexpected by epidemiologists, they've been waiting for the next pandemic. In the USA everyone from Gates to Klain has been waring the Trumpettes of the disaster in the offing.

Your inability to determine the facts from what you read on Twitter is mind blowing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M

TL;DR

Almost all of the team was incorporated into a different group with the same responsibility.

But keep spreading the fake news.
 
Australia's numbers today.

(From Johns Hopkins):

State | Confirmed | Deaths | Recovered | Active
New South Wales |
1,617​
|
8​
|
4​
|
1,605​
|
Victoria |
685​
|
3​
|
191​
|
491​
|
Queensland |
625​
|
1​
|
8​
|
616​
|
Western Australia |
278​
|
2​
|
28​
|
248​
|
South Australia |
287​
|
0​
|
6​
|
281​
|
Tasmania |
62​
|
0​
|
5​
|
57​
|
Australian Capital Territory |
71​
|
0​
|
2​
|
69​
|
Northern Territory |
15​
|
0​
|
0​
|
15​
|
Total |
3,640​
|
14​
|
244​
|
3,382​
|

I've posted this today, because there have been a couple of reports about a sudden uptick in numbers.
The media are still reporting that the lion's share of the increases is still Australia importing cases from else where.
Community transmission is still relatively rare.

Note: I'm not seeing the hundreds of deaths in the Eastern states as reported by another member.

I'm not posting the numbers at a specific time of day, so my increase is not the official daily increase in overall numbers which look like this:

Total Cases, Australia by date

Date | Count
21 Mar 2020|
280​
|
22 Mar 2020|
478​
|
23 Mar 2020|
133​
|
24 Mar 2020|
362​
|
25 Mar 2020|
320​
|
26 Mar 2020|
446​
|
27 Mar 2020|
333​
|
 
Ah *****. Sorry to hear that. I hope he's OK.

Thanks. He doesn’t feel unwell at all, with his fever over before the diagnosis. Boredom is his biggest problem. He’s a very fit and active 28 year old and to be confined to a hotel room with a small balcony must be tough.

There were 100 new diagnosed cases on the day his test results came back. Such long odds which never seem to hit with lottery tickets....
 
Survival rate for intensive care patients is apparently about 50%


https://www.theguardian.com/society...ve-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

ETA men still apparently at much higher risk

......

The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.

.....
 
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If someone else has posted this before my apologies.

I am puzzled by the figures I see for infection rates and death rates in different countries.

Looking at Italy and Spain: Both have similar infection rates per 1mil population and similar deaths per 1mil population whereas the USA and Germany are dramatically less.

For example with a total number of infections of 120,500 the USA has had just over 2,000 deaths whereas Italy with total infections of 92,500 has had total deaths of just over 10,000.

Now some of this can be explained I suppose by the time the infections happened. The longer the infection has been present in the body the greater chance of death for example. Another reason could be better medical help in the USA. I would be skeptical about this but have little to no knowledge of it.

The rate of spread of the virus in the different countries is puzzling also. Why did it spread so rapidly in Spain and Italy but not so quickly in Germany. Different social practices and more diligent observation of social distancing perhaps or what?
 
There's some suggestion CCR5.∆32 provides [SOME RESISTANCE] immunity, as with smallpox and HIV.
FTFY

I have no clue what research led to a conclusion about smallpox. Are you perhaps referring to plague?

IIRC: The CCR5 deletion was selected/amplified in the population after the plague in Europe.

One copy might offer slight resistance to HIV infection, 2 copies offers a fair amount of resistance to HIV infection. But it does not offer guaranteed immunity by any stretch.
 
With people staying at home, the ventilators are likely to be less of a problem than other medical emergencies.

No transplants taking place will create a harvest of corpses, and if you need a stent or heart procedure at the height of the outbreak, you're probably not going to get it. Most cancer treatments will suffer, and lots of people will die as a result.

My mate on chemo has already been told he won't get the last dose he's due in 10 days' time, because they'll have to shut the ward he goes to - and we have a total of 13 people in hospital at the moment, including exactly one in ICU.

How do think even simple trouble like a broken leg will be to deal with in NYC or Milan right now?

Elective surgeries are postponed here in WA State, but there are still surgeries that need to be done, getting done.
 
If someone else has posted this before my apologies.

I am puzzled by the figures I see for infection rates and death rates in different countries.

Looking at Italy and Spain: Both have similar infection rates per 1mil population and similar deaths per 1mil population whereas the USA and Germany are dramatically less.

For example with a total number of infections of 120,500 the USA has had just over 2,000 deaths whereas Italy with total infections of 92,500 has had total deaths of just over 10,000.

Now some of this can be explained I suppose by the time the infections happened. The longer the infection has been present in the body the greater chance of death for example. Another reason could be better medical help in the USA. I would be skeptical about this but have little to no knowledge of it.

The rate of spread of the virus in the different countries is puzzling also. Why did it spread so rapidly in Spain and Italy but not so quickly in Germany. Different social practices and more diligent observation of social distancing perhaps or what?
Part/most of the differences can be explained by different penetration of testing.

The US still has thousands (probably tens of thousands) of cases not being counted because we still don't have enough tests. A country like Germany is testing everyone with any chance of being infected.

So the denominators are unreliable for comparison between countries.
 
The number of cases in ICU in my province took a big jump yesterday. The reason is that recent info provides that results are much better if patients are put on ventilators earlier than was previously the case. I assume this means that some patients are being put on ventilators before they are medically indicated by “normal” standards. It will be interesting to see how this affects the numbers in a couple of weeks.

Also, there is a local nursing home that has been hit particularly hard by the virus that is now a part of a worldwide study of hydroxychloroquine. Patients who provide permission are being treated with the drug.
 
'isolation' being taken very seriously around here. Shops still open all enforcing limited numbers in shop at any one time 'one in one out' and distancing in the queues at checkouts.
 
Thanks. He doesn’t feel unwell at all, with his fever over before the diagnosis. Boredom is his biggest problem. He’s a very fit and active 28 year old and to be confined to a hotel room with a small balcony must be tough.

There were 100 new diagnosed cases on the day his test results came back. Such long odds which never seem to hit with lottery tickets....
Ah well, in a couple of weeks he'll test clear and probably have nothing more to worry about.
 
If someone else has posted this before my apologies.

I am puzzled by the figures I see for infection rates and death rates in different countries.

Looking at Italy and Spain: Both have similar infection rates per 1mil population and similar deaths per 1mil population whereas the USA and Germany are dramatically less.

For example with a total number of infections of 120,500 the USA has had just over 2,000 deaths whereas Italy with total infections of 92,500 has had total deaths of just over 10,000.

Now some of this can be explained I suppose by the time the infections happened. The longer the infection has been present in the body the greater chance of death for example. Another reason could be better medical help in the USA. I would be skeptical about this but have little to no knowledge of it.

The rate of spread of the virus in the different countries is puzzling also. Why did it spread so rapidly in Spain and Italy but not so quickly in Germany. Different social practices and more diligent observation of social distancing perhaps or what?


It is a bit of a mystery, given how slow we have been in the US to roll out the testing the number of infected is probably much greater than 120 k so the death rate is quite low.
 
Whoever was showing no deaths for young women

Well the statistics in my post were based on 6801 deaths and is quite outdated since the total of deaths in Italy is 10,023. But nevertheless I think it was worth posting it.

I know I've posted two, so they won't be the only ones.

As I pointed out to someone not on this forum, at the present rate of deaths of young people, we will see 1.25 - 1.5 million people in their 20s die of Covid-19 if we don't stop it.

Australia's numbers today.

Still don't make sense, dammit!

Aussie, Japan and Hawaii have had a very relaxed attitude to the virus, and are still allowing semi-public activity, yet aren't seeing the numbers increasing as they have elsewhere.

It's eating my brain trying to figure it out, because they're three very diverse populations.

I am puzzled by the figures I see for infection rates and death rates in different countries. The longer the infection has been present in the body the greater chance of death for example. Another reason could be better medical help in the USA. I would be skeptical about this but have little to no knowledge of it.

As you see, it puzzles the hell out of me, too.

Germany is another good case in point - high infection numbers but low mortality, although they are approaching 1% pretty fast.
___________________________

Maybe wishful thinking, but the logarithmic curve looks to me as though it's showing signs of flattening out, which would be excellent news.

If we can keep total cases to under 2 million, then help developing nations not keep lively reservoirs of it, there's a small chance we could be more or less clear of it within 3 months. Then play hammer & dance until a vaccine gets brought on.
 
Death rate in U.S. is low because the case spike is still happening.

Check back next weekend.

On the other hand, deaths vs. recoveries looks atrocious.
 
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