Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[smartcooky]

I don't believe Aussie has been doing social distancing well at all. Hairdressers open, racing still going, thousands at the beach, so I don't believe that's any of the factor. You haven't even closed schools.

Well, this gives a fair idea of what will likely happen if they don't.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144

Something similar will apply to this country.

I think this shows what a brave, but correct decision Jacinda has made to keep us all at home. You only have to see what is happening in the USA right now to see the difference between having a real leader in charge and having an incompetent, malignant narcissist.

 

[ChristianProgressive]

COVID-19: Boris Before and After Pics Stun Brits

This must be the Brit version of the Onion.

 

[ChristianProgressive]

"Won't you please go home?...Sir, I must warn you, if I have to ask again I will NOT say please." *racks rifle bolt*

FIFY

 

[ChristianProgressive]

WTF does Trumps stupidity have to do with anything? Some of us still want to be able to understand what the data is telling us.




The original post was making a valid point about death rates. Your responses ignored this point and went off on an irrelevant tangent.

Current US death rates have 2 major problems. There are only ~4000 closed cases, of which over 1500 have died. We don't know yet how many of the other 97000 people with the virus will live or die. The other side is that we have no way of knowing how many people really have the virus, but chances are it's way more than 97000.

Health agencies are also reclassifying corona deaths.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uninsured-teen-dies-refused-care-mayor-says-2020-3

Another example: Russia has a mysterious 37% increase in "pneumonia" deaths.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ars-over-coronavirus-statistics-idUSKBN216305

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Friend in healthcare at a hospital in my area said towards the end of their shift they did 6 intubations in 4 hours.

My last count says 77 total local cases.

 

[casebro]

Well no, not duh.

If you had bothered to read the article:

"Previous studies have indicated that the new coronavirus could bind with ACE2, a receptor protein cell, a large number of which are concentrated in the testicles.
Li Yufeng, a professor of reproductive medicine at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, had predicted in a study that the testicles could become a major target of the coronavirus attack."

So it would be specifically due to this virus, not just because they had a deadly illness of some kind.

Well. COULD be. I call confounding, without more studies.

Do I always have to explain everything. Sheesh.

But hmm, ACE2, I think they mean "cell receptor", assumably something to do with the adrenal hormone ACE, the target for ACE Inhibitors. Since I am/have been on them, I am not immune on that front. Is it people with low BP that are the immune ones?

 

[rjh01]

Latest figures from Australia.

(From Johns Hopkins):

State | Confirmed | Deaths | Recovered | Active
New South Wales |

1,405​

|

7​

|

4​

|

1,394​

|
Victoria |

574​

|

3​

|

171​

|

400​

|
Queensland |

555​

|

1​

|

8​

|

546​

|
Western Australia |

231​

|

2​

|

1​

|

228​

|
South Australia |

257​

|

0​

|

6​

|

251​

|
Tasmania |

47​

|

0​

|

3​

|

44​

|
Australian Capital Territory |

62​

|

0​

|

1​

|

61​

|
Northern Territory |

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

12​

|
Total |

3,143​

|

13​

|

194​

|

2,936​

|

Note: Australia is testing a lot (more than 100,000 tests performed) and testing is not driving up the numbers (i.e. roughly 3% positive tests). Isolation and social distancing seem to be helping us keep everything under control.

Especially as we're now not allowing overseas arrivals to [not] self-isolate.

I am looking at other figures but they give the first indications that isolation may be starting to work. In previous days the number of cases in Australia has been going up between 15-25% per day. Yesterday it went up by only 10.75%. This is the lowest daily increase since 6 March. If I am right tomorrow's figure will be even lower.

Ref: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

 

[EHocking]

This must be the Brit version of the Onion.

If it wasn’t a Merkin one.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The current situation in Canada

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths
British Columbia|725|14
Alberta|542|2
Saskatchewan|104|0
Manitoba|39|1
Ontario|993|18
Quebec|2021|18
New Brunswick|45|0
Nova Scotia|90|0
Prince Edward Island|11|0
Newfoundland and Labrador|102|0
Yukon|3|0
Northwest Territories|1|0
Nunavut|0|0
Repatriated travellers|13|0
Total | 4689 | 53

Confirmed cases are up 17% from yesterday. Deaths are up 36% (from 39) since yesterday.

The latest points covered byCBC News

• Montreal declares local state of emergency over fears of COVID-19 outbreak among city's homeless
• Government boosts wage subsidy to 75% for small, medium businesses to avoid layoffs during COVID-19 crisis
• Bank of Canada makes another emergency cut to interest rate, now at 0.25%
• Ontario clinicians bracing for 'surge' of COVID-19 patients — but exact timing hard to predict
• Amid a critical shortage, pandemic ventilator inventor makes his design open source
• Doctors face sanctions for prescribing unproven COVID-19 drugs to friends and family, regulators warn
• Trudeau rates higher (64%) than Trump (49%) but lower than other world leaders in COVID-19 polling

Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|155|
2020-03-16|440|184%
2020-03-18|656| 49%
2020-03-19|873| 33%
2020-03-20|926| 6%
2020-03-21|1081| 17%
2020-03-22|1471| 36%
2020-03-23|2091| 42%
2020-03-24|2792| 34%
2020-03-25|3409| 22%
2020-03-26|4043| 19%
2020-03-27|4742| 17%

This is the sixth consecutive day in a row where the percentage increase from the day before is less than the previous number.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.7 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.7 (or 10 to 87) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.7 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests|161,603|1,405,946|599,064|1:3.7|1:3.6
COVID-19 cases|4,757|41,386|104,671|1:22|1:20|
COVID-19 deaths|55|479|1,711|1:31|1:33

 

[The Atheist]

Some interesting science regarding blood types.

Only fair that Os get a break: https://www.sciencealert.com/paper-...ight-be-slightly-more-susceptible-to-covid-19

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Some interesting science regarding blood types.

Only fair that Os get a break: https://www.sciencealert.com/paper-...ight-be-slightly-more-susceptible-to-covid-19

That's old, got anything newer? An A- blood type wants to know.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Well. COULD be. I call confounding, without more studies.

Do I always have to explain everything. Sheesh.

But hmm, ACE2, I think they mean "cell receptor", assumably something to do with the adrenal hormone ACE, the target for ACE Inhibitors. Since I am/have been on them, I am not immune on that front. Is it people with low BP that are the immune ones?

Yes could be, not definite. It was clearly stated its preliminary, non-peer reviewed, and the whole point of the article was that further more in depth studies are required and are being launched.

 

[Capsid]

Well. COULD be. I call confounding, without more studies.

Do I always have to explain everything. Sheesh.

But hmm, ACE2, I think they mean "cell receptor", assumably something to do with the adrenal hormone ACE, the target for ACE Inhibitors. Since I am/have been on them, I am not immune on that front. Is it people with low BP that are the immune ones?

No, ACE2 is just the receptor the virus uses to infect a cell.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[pipelineaudio]

The latest brett Weinstein podcast was skeptical that a vaccine could ever be made for this

 

[The Atheist]

That's old, got anything newer? An A- blood type wants to know.

I think all the stories relate to that one study: https://figshare.com/articles/How_b...from_Coronavirus_Covid-19_infections/12019035

The latest brett Weinstein podcast was skeptical that a vaccine could ever be made for this

I'm inclined to agree, given the mutations already in place. What were the reasons given?

 

[pipelineaudio]

I'm inclined to agree, given the mutations already in place. What were the reasons given?

That we don't have vaccines for corona viruses, I think

 

[Capsid]

The latest brett Weinstein podcast was skeptical that a vaccine could ever be made for this

Why?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[EHocking]

That we don't have vaccines for corona viruses, I think

We do for SARS apparently - just wasn’t produced due to lack of demand, in the meantime from the Vaccine thread.

It is reported that SARS-CoV-2 is mutating relatively slowly, which is good news for vaccination efficacy and production.

Our initial data show that this is a very stable RNA virus, with only five novel variants,” Professor Stefano Menzo, head of Virology at Ancona University Hospital, said in a statement. "Had we investigated other viruses we might have expected up to dozens of new mutations after so many infectious cycles in patients."

Menzo also explained how this could impact a potential vaccine. “A virus with a stable genome is good news for vaccine development because it indicates that the effectiveness of vaccines could be more consistent, possibly over many years.”​

Informed speculation is that a SARS-CoV-2 may quite possibly be a single vaccine, rather than an new vaccine each year, as is needed for flu.

They do caution, “[that]findings are not “over interpreted,” as sample sizes are still small and we are still early in the outbreak” and also that there is a possible second (older) strain circulating in humans .

 

[Planigale]

I note the discussion about concealed deaths. Certainly that is not happening in the UK there is no pressure not to put covid-19 as a cause of death if the certifying doctor wants to. Also the government publishes weekly mortality figures and compares them to previous years. Some may find it interesting to see the 'excess mortality' associated with flu. It is clear that in the UK there is no noticeable increase in deaths above expected as yet.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf
There has been discussion about excess attributable mortality, there is a link in the document to a detailed description of the Euro algorithm if you are interested.

 

[lionking]

My son who recently returned to Australia from London has just been diagnosed with the virus.

Fortunately he has been in complete isolation since his return.