Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[dann]

Also: the availability of things like ICUs and ventilators. I’m not sure if there’s any reliable data on the %-age of “severe” cases which end in death, by age, by medical treatment.

I think that the patients in Denmark so far have received the same treatment: on respirators whenever necessary, medication probably only to treat other infections.

Number of hospitalized coronavirus patients of different age groups
Age
0-29: 18
30-39: 11
40-49: 49
50-59: 45
60-69: 55
70-79: 64
80+: 65

Number of cases tested positive (The actual number of cases is much, much higher! At this point only hospitalizations and other severe cases are tested. People with mild symptoms are told to self-isolate. There is also no test for people who have had the virus yet.)
Age
0-9: 15
10-19: 40
20-29: 196
30-39: 239
40-49: 453
50-59: 365
60-69: 250
70-79: 261
80-89: 258
90+: 32

Deaths (not all cases! Total number of deaths: 52):
Age
50-59: 1-5
60-69: 1-5
70-79: 10-14
80+: 17
Most recent corona numbers in Denmark (TV2)

Likewise: %-age of “moderate” cases which end in death, in circumstances where there is non-existent health care, no clean running water, etc.

I don't think you could describe that as a "moderate" case, but if your lungs start to fill up and there are no ventilators, I assume you'll die.

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks.

I think the usual expectation is a one way trip lasting a couple weeks. Altzheimers homes may be different, and may also be getting hit hard by covid spread.

Definitely YMMV.

For whatever reason, in my mind it’s something like “expected to die within six months, and only heroic medical intervention could possibly extend that (caveat: newly available treatment options)”.

I’d guess that there are considerable variations, between countries, say. For example, you may get palliative care in your own home, but for some the definition applies only if you’re in a hospital or designated palliative care facility.

 

[dann]

Who has the most hospital beds per capita? Anybody?

List of hospital beds by country (Wikipedia)

There's a Wiki page specifically about 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic related shortages

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks.

I think that the patients in Denmark so far have received the same treatment: on respirators whenever necessary, medication probably only to treat other infections.








I don't think you could describe that as a "moderate" case, but if your lungs start to fill up and there are no ventilators, I assume you'll die.

I know that, so far, there are no consistent, widely accepted definitions of severe, moderate, etc, re covid-19. Which only complicates trying to understand how deadly covid-19 is/will be.

Take scenarios for the US, for example: once things stabilize/the initial peak is over in New York (the whole state, not just the Big Apple), how can age/severity data be used to estimate the impact in West Virginia (opioid addiction high), say, or Montana (low population density, fewer ICU units per capita?)?

And then there’s “ventilators” vs “respirators”

 

[Andy_Ross]

UK number of deaths increased by 181, taking the total to 759

 

[eeyore1954]

He explained it to you.

If the US really has mores cases and death than China, a country with about 4 times as many people, then something went wrong with US policy or healthcare. How is that not significant?

Assuming the numbers from China are true which is questionable.

I think I shows the advantages of a completely authoritative government in this type of circumstance. I don’t think it has much to do with the health care system.

 

[dann]

Deaths per million seem to be going up everywhere. Do you have the most recent numbers? In Denmark, they've at least doubled since Monday.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

Young, fit, athlete in horrid shape from this, maybe the locals will finally take it seriously. And for you guys with the "don't worry its only the old who will get it" (as if that's ok), you are wrong

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...uffering-coronavirus-warns-dont-challenge-it/

Apparently fit. No info about immune system compromise.

A lot of apparently fit young people are walking around with hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and atherosclerosis without being aware of it.

I would want to see a lot of blood work and other health indicators before I accepted that he was otherwise healthy.


Can we consider it an upside if a lot of stealth health issues are discovered as people are hospitalized because of this disease and survive?

 

[JeanTate]

Assuming the numbers from China are true which is questionable.

<snip>

The reported number of cases is certainly too low, as it is everywhere (except, perhaps, Singapore etc).

Deaths? Probably also too low, if only because in the early days in Wuhan there were no clear, universally applied standards. Even today, it’s not clear to me that the reported numbers of deaths due to covid-19 are comparable, place by place. For example, the numbers from Singapore and Hong Kong are likely consistent (2 and 4, respectively), but perhaps not with those from Samoa, say, or Syria (zero for both, so far).

 

[eeyore1954]

Deaths per million seem to be going up everywhere. Do you have the most recent numbers? In Denmark, they've at least doubled since Monday.

This from the middle of yesterday
Italy 124
Spain 87
Switzerland 20
Netherlands 25
France 20
Belgium 19
United Kingdom 7
Sweden 7
Portugal 6
Austria 5
Denmark 4
Greece 3.45
United States 3.16
Germany 2.73
Norway 2.58
South Korea 2.56
Canada .96
Australia .53
Poland .37
Japan .35

In a week South Korea went from 84 to 131
The US increased 10 fold in total numbers in the same period
Germany also increased almost 10 fold

I don’t understand Japan’s totals at all. Is there something else involved.

 

[JeanTate]

Deaths per million seem to be going up everywhere. Do you have the most recent numbers? In Denmark, they've at least doubled since Monday.

Over a period of ~6 months, say, how could “deaths per million” do anything but increase*?

*quibbly trivial fluctuations aside

 

[Capsid]

UK number of deaths increased by 181, taking the total to 759

It's concerning to see that the UK has a very low recovery rate on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Is that a reflection of the poor health of society or the NHS or the stage of the epidemic?

 

[Cheetah]

Apparently fit. No info about immune system compromise.

Don't forget the general genetic lottery. I bet some people with certain high risk conditions show almost no symptoms and other healthy ones will be hit really hard for no apparent reason.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

A week ago I was, perhaps rightfully, criticized for posting a tweet about respirators being shared between patients without adequately vetting it.

That has apparently come to pass, or is at least being experimented with:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-ventilators-idUSKBN21D3M1

Also mentioned on last night’s NBC Nightly News.

 

[Samson]

Deaths per million seem to be going up everywhere. Do you have the most recent numbers? In Denmark, they've at least doubled since Monday.

This link is accurate in updating with data they are provided with:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If you click twice the top right box it gives descending rate of deaths per million by country, and similarly for total cases with 2nd to top right box.

It is hopeless the world obsession with which country has the most cases rather than cases per million.

 

[The Atheist]

Thanks. As a resident of Yokohama and worker in Tokyo, it is of interest. One thing I can say is that I don't see a whole lot of "social distancing" going on when I go outside.

I'm going to class that as more evidence that closing schools helps a lot.

There doesn't seem to be any other reason why Japan is behind all of the countries to which Covid-19 arrived much later than Japan.

I need help with a couple of definitions:

1) case fatality rate - is that based on the number of people who show symptoms, the number of people who test positive, or the number of people who both show symptoms and test positive? Or is it based on the number of people who seek medical advice rather than the number of people who show symptoms?

Number of cases in every list I've seen is those confirmed as positive by testing.

2) excess mortality - I believe this is supposed to be a measure of the number of people who would not have otherwise died, but what is the time frame? Is it the number of people who would have not died within days? within months? within weeks? within the same year?

It can be worked out over any time period, because you're comparing known number of deaths from Covid-19 to the known historical number of deaths, but you'd usually use a full year to ensure a fair picture.

Deaths per million seem to be going up everywhere.

Yeah, they do that every time someone dies.

 

[The Atheist]

It is hopeless the world obsession with which country has the most cases rather than cases per million.

I'd bet my 2018 Ford Falcon V8 Boss ute against a 1998 Toyota Corolla that China wins that race when the final count is in, and wins by a huge margin.

Even now, only Canada has a lower rate among established national epidemics.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

This link is accurate in updating with data they are provided with:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If you click twice the top right box it gives descending rate of deaths per million by country, and similarly for total cases with 2nd to top right box.

It is hopeless the world obsession with which country has the most cases rather than cases per million.

Cases per million is useful in determining how far through the entire event a country is.

To my mind, the distressing metrics are active cases and rate of growth.

This pandemic will claim a certain percentage of lives, barring widespread use of vaccines or development of an antiviral treatment.

An overwhelmed healthcare system is where a mass of avoidable deaths comes into play.

 

[eeyore1954]

He explained it to you.

If the US really has mores cases and death than China, a country with about 4 times as many people, then something went wrong with US policy or healthcare. How is that not significant?

Would you say the reverse about the US and other countries if the death rate is lower in the US so far than many countries?
I don't take it to mean all that much one way or the other because there are so many factors to consider.

Look at Italy supposedly they had excellent health care and they first "locked down" quickly the area of the outbreak and later "locked down" the whole country I think faster than most other countries.
Is the rate there the cause of policy and/or/ the health care system? I don't know.


This from the middle of yesterday. Deaths per million people.
Italy 124
Spain 87
Switzerland 20
Netherlands 25
France 20
Belgium 19
United Kingdom 7
Sweden 7
Portugal 6
Austria 5
Denmark 4
Greece 3.45
United States 3.16
Germany 2.73
Norway 2.58
South Korea 2.56
Canada .96
Australia .53
Poland .37
Japan .35

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Because we have yet to see the death toll for the spike happening in America.

This has been a repeated tactic now, pointing to other countries at a more advanced place in the event as an example of how we're doing better and that won't happen here.

While simultaneously downplaying that when we pass metrics of other countries it's because they are lying or have incomplete data.

Same kettle defense ********.

With millions of lives hanging in the balance