Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[TellyKNeasuss]

I need help with a couple of definitions:

1) case fatality rate - is that based on the number of people who show symptoms, the number of people who test positive, or the number of people who both show symptoms and test positive? Or is it based on the number of people who seek medical advice rather than the number of people who show symptoms?

2) excess mortality - I believe this is supposed to be a measure of the number of people who would not have otherwise died, but what is the time frame? Is it the number of people who would have not died within days? within months? within weeks? within the same year?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

If we stay on the 25% growth path we reach half a million cases by next weekend.

 

[William Parcher]

South Africa is in lockdown...

A gathering of 50 people will be allowed at a funeral.

That's going to be a serious problem because that will be a prime location for transmission. Imagine hundreds of funerals with each one having 50 attendants.

I have no idea yet how the forms are supposed to work.

If a printed form is required then that's going to be a serious problem because so many people do not own a printer.

 

[William Parcher]

Bojo’s got the Covid

This is Boris Johnson - for people (like me) who may not know the nicknames of politicians around the globe.

 

[Puppycow]

Worth a watch.

 

[calebprime]

Worth a watch.

I had to watch/listen just to see what it was. Please, next time, tell us what something is. Don't do clickbait.

That was bad. Not baad. Inept. Leaden.

Instead, say, musicians are doing things. They're musicians, after all.

 

[Ziggurat]

Delete

 

[Andy_Ross]

This is Boris Johnson - for people (like me) who may not know the nicknames of politicians around the globe.

Health Minister tested positive too

 

[JeanTate]

I need help with a couple of definitions:

1) case fatality rate - is that based on the number of people who show symptoms, the number of people who test positive, or the number of people who both show symptoms and test positive? Or is it based on the number of people who seek medical advice rather than the number of people who show symptoms?

2) excess mortality - I believe this is supposed to be a measure of the number of people who would not have otherwise died, but what is the time frame? Is it the number of people who would have not died within days? within months? within weeks? within the same year?

Me too (would like help with understanding these concepts).

Also, “would/was going to die anyway” and covid-19: surely an enormous range?

For example, an 82 year old with stage 4/terminal lung cancer already receiving hospice/palliative care vs a 62 year old with only diabetes (life expectancy otherwise ~20+ years).

 

[JeanTate]

If we stay on the 25% growth path we reach half a million cases by next weekend.

And by the end of April?

I assume you’re referring to the US, and reported cases of covid-19; the world is likely to reach 600k cases of reported covid-19 later today (may be tomorrow, depending on what time zone you’re in).

 

[casebro]

First it came for our lungs. Now its coming for our balls..

Wuhan doctors plan long-term look at coronavirus impact on male sex hormone

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...an-long-term-look-coronavirus-impact-male-sex

Small scale, un-peer reviewed initial study finds some evidence that has indicated need for a more comprehensive study.

"Using the samples, the team looked at the ratio of testosterone to luteinising hormone (T/LH). A low T/LH ratio can be a sign of hypogonadism, which in men is a malfunction of the testicles that could lead to lower sex hormone production.

The average ratio for the Covid-19 patients was 0.74, about half the normal level."

Well duh. They recently had a deadly illness.

 

[JeanTate]

It is ten fold lower I think but still very significant. I believe somewhere like 0.3%? death rate depending on population, exact age, etc.

Also: the availability of things like ICUs and ventilators. I’m not sure if there’s any reliable data on the %-age of “severe” cases which end in death, by age, by medical treatment.

Likewise: %-age of “moderate” cases which end in death, in circumstances where there is non-existent health care, no clean running water, etc.

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Me too (would like help with understanding these concepts).

Also, “would/was going to die anyway” and covid-19: surely an enormous range?

For example, an 82 year old with stage 4/terminal lung cancer already receiving hospice/palliative care vs a 62 year old with only diabetes (life expectancy otherwise ~20+ years).

I don't think Hospice care patients receive life extending treatments (not counting drug therapy stuff like massive doses of Morphine), after all it's Hospice. Their motto is something like "Taking Out Terminally Ill People With Massive Over Doses of Party Drugs" or something like that.

Chris B.

 

[dann]

First it came for our lungs. Now its coming for our balls..

Oh, it's one of those diseases!!! (Or is it the treatment?)
J.G.Ballard: Answers to a Questionnaire

 

[JeanTate]

Exactly.

It’s been asserted that the actions of the US government were so exceptional that other countries were looking to us for guidance.

This puts the lie to that so glaringly that even attempting to sugar coat it is absurd.

But to be precise, there are still five countries with more deaths than the US - China, Italy, Spain, Iran and France. Regrettably, it seems a near certainty that we’re about to move up that list in short order as well.

My very grim, but sadly quite realistic (I feel), prediction: reported numbers of covid-19 deaths in the US will be far greater than those for any other country, possibly even the EU (excluding the U.K.) ... by Easter Monday (13 April).

I fervently hope this prediction is proven to be badly wrong.

 

[casebro]

There's CPAP, and then there's APAP. They both force air into non-respomsive airways, APAPs also let off the pressure and let it back out.

But my read on treatment is that most need oxygen more than ventilation. No throat tube required, just the the plastic aquarium hose worn under the nose. And now-a-days connected to a cordless oxygen concentration machine. So home care is an option. And for days, not months. And everything can be re-used- what are you going to do, give covid to someone who already has it?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

And by the end of April?



I assume you’re referring to the US, and reported cases of covid-19; the world is likely to reach 600k cases of reported covid-19 later today (may be tomorrow, depending on what time zone you’re in).

Yes, U.S. numbers.

When the President declared that our having the most in the world was because of our superior testing, I wanted to throw up.

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks.

I don't think Hospice care patients receive life extending treatments (not counting drug therapy stuff like massive doses of Morphine), after all it's Hospice. Their motto is something like "Taking Out Terminally Ill People With Massive Over Doses of Party Drugs" or something like that.

Chris B.

This is likely one of those YMMV things.

For example, are some patients in palliative care given dialysis? On ventilators?

Also: aren’t some people in hospices given new, appropriate treatments?

And then there are those whose conditions improve, and who return to normal life, even a job (though perhaps not the one they once had).

 

[casebro]

My very grim, but sadly quite realistic (I feel), prediction: reported numbers of covid-19 deaths in the US will be far greater than those for any other country, possibly even the EU (excluding the U.K.) ... by Easter Monday (13 April).

I fervently hope this prediction is proven to be badly wrong.

My own prediction: That the area under the curve for the rate will nit be substantially different. but time to peak will vary vastly around the world.

Nobody has mentioned a really important stat: comparison of resources by country. Who has the most hospital beds per capita? Anybody?

 

[casebro]

Thanks.


This is likely one of those YMMV things.

For example, are some patients in palliative care given dialysis? On ventilators?

Also: aren’t some people in hospices given new, appropriate treatments?

And then there are those whose conditions improve, and who return to normal life, even a job (though perhaps not the one they once had).

I think the usual expectation is a one way trip lasting a couple weeks. Altzheimers homes may be different, and may also be getting hit hard by covid spread.