2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Ulf Nereng said:
The initial group consisted of young people.
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Relatively young but usually quite wealthy - if it is anything like the Danish situation where the three largest groups are:
30-39: 184
40-49: 362 (!)
50-59: 239
Some age groups have more people with money than others. And the areas in Denmark that have been hit the hardest are the ones with a lot of rich people.

Why go to Austria? Why leave Norway at all if you want to go skiing? You've got mountains and snow aplenty!
 
It occurred to me: Could this be like when chicken pox killed whole populations of island nations?
Is there any reason to assume that some indigenous populations happen to have immunesystems that are particularly bad (or particularly good) at fighting this virus?
 
dann said:
Relatively young but usually quite wealthy - if it is anything like the Danish situation where the three largest groups are:
30-39: 184
40-49: 362 (!)
50-59: 239
Some age groups have more people with money than others. And the areas in Denmark that have been hit the hardest are the ones with a lot of rich people.

Why go to Austria? Why leave Norway at all if you want to go skiing? You've got mountains and snow aplenty!
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It's a safe bet that they were from the wealthier part of the population, but they wouldn't have to be that wealthy, either. Upper middle class is quite enough to afford a trip to Austria or Italy. We certainly do have enough ski resorts, but I suspect that those are a bit out of fashion with the younger generation. You want to go somewhere fashionable so you can get those selfies that not everybody have. If it was just an urge to go skiing then they could have done that almost everywhere in Norway.

The thing that really irks me about that group is that many of them were health care personnel from Rikshospitalet (main nationwide hospital). Why in the blue hills didn't anyone stop them? Somebody should have known better!
 
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dann said:
It occurred to me: Could this be like when chicken pox killed whole populations of island nations?
Is there any reason to assume that some indigenous populations happen to have immunesystems that are particularly bad (or particularly good) at fighting this virus?
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I would assume it comes down to exposure.

A lot of indigenous tribes who first met Europeans had not developed the anti-bodies against things like measles, smallpox, chickenpox, influenza and other diseases so their immune systems were particularly susceptible to those diseases.

Surely with this one we are all in the same boat, no? Or do you mean that some populations may have antibodies that have some crossover use?
 
dann said:
It occurred to me: Could this be like when chicken pox killed whole populations of island nations?
Is there any reason to assume that some indigenous populations happen to have immunesystems that are particularly bad (or particularly good) at fighting this virus?
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You mean like the whole world? I think the hypothesis that behavior differs in Italy. I'm not sure which population you have in mind.
 
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Ulf Nereng said:
It's a safe bet that they were from the wealthier part of the population, but they wouldn't have to be that wealthy, either. Upper middle class is quite enough to afford a trip to Austria or Italy. We certainly do have enough ski resorts, but I suspect that those are a bit out of fashion with the younger generation. You want to go somewhere fashionable so you can get those selfies that not everybody have. If it was just an urge to go skiing then they could have done that almost everywhere in Norway.

The thing that really irks me about that group is that many of them were health care personnel from Rikshospitalet (main nationwide hospital). Why in the blue hills didn't anyone stop them? Somebody should have known better!
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I think we agree. I'm not talking about 0,1% rich! :)
And being a health care worker doesn't always mean that you are also a considerate person. Since my 'sport' isn't skiing but salsa, I've been on the lookout for ways to avoid spreading the virus in that community and found this case: A partying, dancing Panamanian doctor emerges as the latest coronavirus threat to Puerto Rico (Miami Herald, March 12, 2020)
 
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dann said:
Yes, something like that. I mean, there are cases where Covid-19 seems to kill whole families.
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That is more likely other risk factors than specific antibodies. The family that lost 4 members for example has an obesity factor.
 
dann said:
Yes, something like that. I mean, there are cases where Covid-19 seems to kill whole families.
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Skeptic Ginger said:
That is more likely other risk factors than specific antibodies. The family that lost 4 members for example has an obesity factor.
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Yeah, combinations of lifestyle and heritable diseases or dispositions could make people more susceptible, I would expect.

If one or more smoke in the house, if there is a family history of asthma or other diseases, or even dosage could lead to worse outcomes from what I understand.
 
Ivor the Engineer said:
I posted many, many posts ago, that the size of the virus is ~150nm across. A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles 300nm in size.

Unless you are planning to get up-close to an infected person and be exposed to droplets containing the virus I don't see how wearing a mask (e.g., while shopping or otherwise walking about outside) is going to help very much.
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But the virions are not flee-floating. Don't they have to be in droplets of water? Those are much larger.

Trebuchet said:
That's pretty hilarious, considering Maher is an ardent germ-theory denialist and anti-vaxer!
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This claim has been made before on this forum and has not been substantiated.

He said something that could be interpreted as anti-vax but that's quite the stretch from calling him an "ardent" denialist. :rolleyes:
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
This is scary as hell:

Skagit County investigates COVID-19 cluster; expects significant rise in cases

56 people went to a meeting earlier this month. No one had any symptoms.
That's 43 of the 56 people who went to the meeting. And it could be more.
.
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That will be an excellent study cohort. We assume healthy to begin with, not end stage patients. Of the 32 with symptoms, how many are placebo/ won't test positive? How many that test + will need care? % of deaths? Are the other 13 (25%) Immune?

That will be a small study, but better than the SK system of self-selection. We need an exposed group where we can test and/or observe EVERYBODY. A Navy ship?
 
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dann said:
It occurred to me: Could this be like when chicken pox killed whole populations of island nations?
Is there any reason to assume that some indigenous populations happen to have immunesystems that are particularly bad (or particularly good) at fighting this virus?
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There are genetic variables to immunities. 23&Me data tells me I am immune to Norwalk Norovirus and Crutchfield-Jacob Prion disease. Virus susceptibility has to do with receptors for something else being used by the virus. Maybe my bad Insulin Receptor Substrate helps by making a bad recpetor elsewhere? And in a couple observed cohorts, not everybody gets Covid.
 
Belz... said:
But the virions are not flee-floating. Don't they have to be in droplets of water? Those are much larger.
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Yeah, thinking of these scenarios:

A) A crowded subway car - infected person with no mask starts coughing up a storm. None of the passengers are wearing masks.

B) A crowded subway car - infected person with a mask starts coughing up a storm. All the passengers are wearing masks.

C) A crowded subway car - infected person with no mask starts coughing up a storm. All the passengers are wearing masks.

Is it not likely that there would be more spread in the infection in Situation A, followed by B, followed by C?

Whatever the levels of infection they are, the masks would surely provide some protection.

Belz... said:
This claim has been made before on this forum and has not been substantiated.
He said something that could be interpreted as anti-vax but that's quite the stretch from calling him an "ardent" denialist. :rolleyes:
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Maher is on very, very shaky ground as far as vaccines are concerned.

He spouts a lot of BS about flu shots, how there is too mercury in vaccines, and he has guests on his programme like Robert Kennedy and some doctor to talk about links between vaccines and autism. His guests promote, with his blessing, the kind of quackery that leads to vaccine hesitancy. It is not a matter of interpretation; his promotion of anti-vax nonsense is very much substantiated.

https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/the-problem-with-bill-maher/
 
Skeptical Greg said:
How would you suggest we go about testing everyone, regardless of symptoms or possible exposure?
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Hmmm....I don't know about everybody, but you could massively ramp up testing and you could take those millions of tests that Trump told us they have, and combine them with something really American like....ummm...how about a drive-thru?

Unrealistic? Yeah, probably. I bet such a thing has never been done before and is impossible.
 
Skeptical Greg said:
How would you suggest we go about testing everyone, regardless of symptoms or possible exposure?
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The quickest start is to just look at other nations and copy them. South Korea, Germany, and other nations have been testing far larger proportions of their populations than the U.S. has - for months now. Like 10x more tests per capita.

For months.

How the hell did the U.S. get so far behind the curve? We are failing our citizens, it is shameful. If other nations can do it, then why don't we just copy them? Why didn't we do that months ago?
 
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