2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[The Atheist]

Thanks to you guys, I now have the ears of some of the local government. What should I tell them? I have shown them videos of how other places have run into shortages of masks, general PPE and ventilators. I have given them several epidemic graphs as well as links to experts.

They are now ready to take some serious quarantine measures and also some travel stoppage.

They realize that they will have to decide who lives and who dies if it gets bad enough ,but I could use other, specific links or at least the names of people they can ask. They cannot ask our local department of health as it was a political appointment to a non expert. The local hospitals don't necessarily know for sure but are being asked

Bloody good show, mate.

I hope you achieve some results!

Don’t want to be a scaremonger but obviously (to me) millions of people and businesses are going to go broke around the world, and some of those will be very rich people and big businesses, perhaps including banks and other large financial institutions.

Yes, there will be lots of businesses that go bust.

The flip side of the coin is that once the epidemic's over, there will be massive growth as industries resurrect. Unemployment during the crisis period will be astronomical and governments will need to borrow heavily, but things will change pretty fast once we get to the end.

Enjoy your drink and keep watching, but I recommend not watching too close to home - Jacinda is still moving too slow. Lots of medical professionals think so and there's a petition here you can sign to tell the stupid bitch to stop stalling, or face disaster in the health system.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is scary as hell:

Skagit County investigates COVID-19 cluster; expects significant rise in cases

56 people went to a meeting earlier this month. No one had any symptoms.

Eleven people who attended a meeting in early March in Skagit County have tested positive for COVID-19, and 32 attendees are showing symptoms and are considered probable cases, Skagit County Public Health Officer Howard Leibrand said in an interview Saturday afternoon.

That's 43 of the 56 people who went to the meeting. And it could be more.

No one had symptoms Dr Fauci and the rest of you making excuses for why the shortage of tests doesn't matter.

As for supplies, Leibrand said he is not concerned in the short-term about masks. He said the county’s three hospitals received a shipment of many masks Thursday, and some local companies, including the refineries have donated masks, as well.

He said the bigger concern for the county is getting enough testing equipment, such as swabs.

 

[rjh01]

NSW, Victoria move to comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services amid coronavirus pandemic

The NSW and Victorian Governments will proceed to a more comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services over the next 48 hours in attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus.

This should be done by the Federal Government, not the state governments. It was about due.

How bad is it in Australia? It is about as bad as it was in the USA about 2 days ago and almost as bad as China is now. Am going on cases per million population figures. Of course a lot of this assumes that the figures are comparable.

 

[a_unique_person]

I can't imagine a future, no matter how dystopian, where gold isn't a fungible asset.

Can you eat it?

Ninjas.

 

[Kings Full]

Can you eat it?

Keep reading....

 

[a_unique_person]

NSW, Victoria move to comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services amid coronavirus pandemic



This should be done by the Federal Government, not the state governments. It was about due.

How bad is it in Australia? It is about as bad as it was in the USA about 2 days ago and almost as bad as China is now. Am going on cases per million population figures. Of course a lot of this assumes that the figures are comparable.

The football is off now, even with empty stadium. Borders between states are closed so no travel.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

I want to offer my prediction, based on nothing but pure speculation, that in the US the infection rate will briefly level, the isolation practices will end prematurely, and then there will be a mass outbreak anyway.

It's just the general vibe I am getting from people IRL.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Thanks to you guys, I now have the ears of some of the local government. What should I tell them? I have shown them videos of how other places have run into shortages of masks, general PPE and ventilators. I have given them several epidemic graphs as well as links to experts.

They are now ready to take some serious quarantine measures and also some travel stoppage.

They realize that they will have to decide who lives and who dies if it gets bad enough ,but I could use other, specific links or at least the names of people they can ask. They cannot ask our local department of health as it was a political appointment to a non expert. The local hospitals don't necessarily know for sure but are being asked

The Health Department official doesn't need to be an expert. If they have a modicum of respect for the gravity of the situation and the ability to nod politely while a team of doctors from those various hospitals and a few public services departments hammer out some plans, then it's workable. If they can actually absorb some of the material, make a few affirmative commands to keep a small team focused on a task, and god forbid make vaguely hopeful remarks at a press conference while largely deferring to those other team members, it's no problem.

Anyways, focus on steering them in a more positive tone than "they will have to decide who lives or dies." That's what "flattening the curve" is all about. Slow down infection rates so the healthcare capacity won't get overwhelmed.

I'm convinced that we are probably going to escalate like this roughly once a week. My fellow Americans would stupidly have mass protests (and probably looting with all the imagery of half-empty store shelves already) if locked down hard in a single move. Aside from the display of stupidity, it would make the infection curve into more of a vertical line.

 

[pipelineaudio]

TIf they have a modicum of respect for the gravity of the situation

He does not. He has an AMAZING doctor working for him who saved the state from what seemed like it would be a total Hepatitis disaster, but she has no power to override "just let the virus burn thru"

and the ability to nod politely while a team of doctors from those various hospitals and a few public services departments hammer out some plans, then it's workable.

He does not

Right now its a fight between a few factions. After the missile button fiasco, the "do nothing" faction is in a precarious spot, but the other faction, having run a very violent fight against science is unsure of what to do so is looking for informational resources

 

[Planigale]

Trump Retweeted

Michael Coudrey
@MichaelCoudrey
NEW DATA: A French study has demonstrated evidence that the combination of Hydroxychloroquine & Azithromycin are highly effective in treating Covid-19.
The patients enrolled in the study showed complete viral eradication around the 5th day of treatment.

Everyone who thinks coronavirus is harmless or doesn’t matter should rethink that opinion immediately.
This is an extremely dangerous pathogen with wide spreading implications, including neurological impairment, brain, lung, heart & reproductive damage.

Apologies to those who have read this post previously but since this issue has reappeared I'll repost.

I suspect he is responding to;
https://www.mediterranee-infection.c...l_DOI_IJAA.pdf
Which shows why in studies one should report on an intention to treat basis.

In a non-randomised study, 42 patients were 'recruited' 26 agreed to try the treatment (hydroxychloroquine some of whom also got azithromycin) and 16 refused and were controls. Six hydroxychloroquine patients were 'lost to follow up', so the report is based on comparing twenty treated with 16 untreated. The outcome reported;

Quote:
At day6 post-inclusion, 70% of hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were virologicaly cured comparing with 12.5% in the control group
This sounds great.

BUT

What happened to the six patients who received treatment but were lost to follow up?

One died. Three went to ITU. One got side effects and stopped treatment. One self discharged from the hospital. None of the untreated group died or went to ITU.

So another way of looking at it is the treatment might make you worse.

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin both have immunomodulatory effects that might worsen the disease. Both can cause heart problems and rarely cause sudden cardiac death. Covid does seem to affect the heart. So it is not irrational to think they might cause harm.

So encouraging people to take medicines outside of a properly regulated randomised controlled trial is dangerous, potentially even causing avoidable deaths.

 

[Planigale]

This is a preprint of a paper by researchers at Duke National University of Singapore, currently under peer review.

IIUC the authors are saying that recent samples of the virus taken in Singapore show protein deletions that are likely to make it less dangerous. The deletions are similar to those seen in the SARS and MERS viruses towards the end of the outbreaks, that were associated with 'reduced replicative fitness'. It is not just referring to the presence of the L and S strains which were already known about for some time.

Key sentence appears to be

Although the biological consequences of this deletion remain unknown, the alteration of the N gene transcription would suggest this may have an impact on virus phenotype.

Unfortunately if this mutation makes this strain of virus 'less fit' in terms of reduced ability to transmit from person to person, that means it is unlikely to become the dominant circulating strain. Also as has been said it does not mean it is any less virulent once one is infected with it.

 

[Sherkeu]

This is scary as hell:

Skagit County investigates COVID-19 cluster; expects significant rise in cases

56 people went to a meeting earlier this month. No one had any symptoms.
That's 43 of the 56 people who went to the meeting. And it could be more.

No one had symptoms Dr Fauci and the rest of you making excuses for why the shortage of tests doesn't matter.

Skagit County is in Washington State, north of Seattle (and directly east of the part of Vancouver Island where Prince Harry is holed up) for anyone else who had absolutely no clue where this was.

 

[Planigale]

Thanks to you guys, I now have the ears of some of the local government. What should I tell them? I have shown them videos of how other places have run into shortages of masks, general PPE and ventilators. I have given them several epidemic graphs as well as links to experts.

They are now ready to take some serious quarantine measures and also some travel stoppage.

They realize that they will have to decide who lives and who dies if it gets bad enough ,but I could use other, specific links or at least the names of people they can ask. They cannot ask our local department of health as it was a political appointment to a non expert. The local hospitals don't necessarily know for sure but are being asked

Oxygen. This is the main treatment.

PHE have a specific group to assist.*
https://www.gov.uk/government/people/neil-squires
Could get someone senior to contact Prof. Squires, even if PHE are stretched thin he might be able to point to other groups with resources to assist.

As it happens our local hospital is also a regional sleep and home ventilation centre. They were able to pull out a large number of simple and reliable patient triggered ventilators. The problem is the hospital oxygen pipe system does not have the ability to supply oxygen to all the ventilators and supply non ventilated patients. There is a maximum flow rate in the pipes and if lots of patients are needing lots of oxygen, then the pressure will drop and flows will drop.

ETA for those who remember school physics the wards are 'wired' in series not parallel. So you don't want to be ill on the top floor!

* I am making the assumption you are posting from a resource poor country, I apologise if I am wrong.

 

[dudalb]

Hobby Lobby refuses to close and the CEO tells employess prayer will keep them safe:

https://heavy.com/news/2020/03/hobby-lobby-open-coronavirus/

What a freaking hypocrite the owner is.

 

[The Atheist]

I want to offer my prediction, based on nothing but pure speculation, that in the US the infection rate will briefly level, the isolation practices will end prematurely, and then there will be a mass outbreak anyway.

It's just the general vibe I am getting from people IRL.

That's pretty much how I read it, too.

* I am making the assumption you are posting from a resource poor country, I apologise if I am wrong.

Haha! He certainly is, it's a real **** hole country.

Some banana republic called United States of something... America, that's it, United States of America. The 50th state, I believe.

 

[The Atheist]

This is scary as hell:

56 people went to a meeting earlier this month. No one had any symptoms.
That's 43 of the 56 people who went to the meeting. And it could be more.

Again, that's much more like a norovirus oral route infection than a respiratory one. I can't imagine 80% of people catching 'flu at a meeting, but it'd be very typical in norovirus.

 

[Babbylonian]

Again, that's much more like a norovirus oral route infection than a respiratory one. I can't imagine 80% of people catching 'flu at a meeting, but it'd be very typical in norovirus.

Yeah. It's not like the flu. I thought that misconception had been cleared up at least a week ago (for the slow who believe what certain politicians say).

 

[The Atheist]

Meanwhile in New York...

It's just the beginning of the outbreak:

"The next month or two is a horror to imagine if we're underestimating the threat," Dr. Smith said

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...-alarming-conditions-supply-shortage/2337966/

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Again, that's much more like a norovirus oral route infection than a respiratory one. I can't imagine 80% of people catching 'flu at a meeting, but it'd be very typical in norovirus.

Here's how we had the first large outbreak in Norway: Group of young people go to Austria for skiing and general good times. After-ski you go to the bar and there's a flute you can blow on when you want to pay the next round for everybody. Woohoo! Funs! Most of them blew on the flute, of course!

That's why we have a somewhat unusual curve of confirmed cases here. It has a big spike early on, but then it winds down with fewer and fewer cases for a while. Once the health authorities realized what had gone down there in Austria they did some vigorous tracing of everybody who had been in contact with these youngsters and got them quarantined. It also explains why the ratio of confirmed vs deaths is so low. The initial group consisted of young people.

 

[Meridian]

He does not. He has an AMAZING doctor working for him who saved the state from what seemed like it would be a total Hepatitis disaster, but she has no power to override "just let the virus burn thru"



He does not

Right now its a fight between a few factions. After the missile button fiasco, the "do nothing" faction is in a precarious spot, but the other faction, having run a very violent fight against science is unsure of what to do so is looking for informational resources

Here's one: updated post by Tomas Pueyo making the argument for acting strongly now.