2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Ivor the Engineer said:
I posted many, many posts ago, that the size of the virus is ~150nm across. A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles 300nm in size.

Unless you are planning to get up-close to an infected person and be exposed to droplets containing the virus I don't see how wearing a mask (e.g., while shopping or otherwise walking about outside) is going to help very much.

If you are living with someone who has the virus and sharing facilities then you will probably become infected no matter what you do.
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Even homemade mask will reduce exposure:
Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?

Some extra metastudies:
Surgical masks as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection
Effectiveness of Masks and Respirators Against Respiratory Infections in Healthcare Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
 
Giordano said:
As you know one of the most important differences between Covid-19 and measles in this regard is that measles (like smallpox) is infectious in much smaller sized aerosol particles than Covid-19. So measles stays in the air longer and needs better masks.
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In degree, there's a big difference.

But why is everyone dismissing the role of airborne spread of SARS 2?
 
chrispy said:
Here in Guatemala we are, as of tomorrow, under national curfew from 4 PM until 4 AM for a minimum of 8 days. I have 2 packs of 24 beers, 2 tequila bottles, and 3 bottles of rum...oh, and a **** ton of non perishable food.

Our fresh food, open air market was shut this morning. We are settling in for some seriously weird times down here. :boggled:
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But how much toilet paper?
 
Klimax said:
Even homemade mask will reduce exposure:
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Thanks for that.

Skeptic Ginger said:
But why is everyone dismissing the role of airborne spread of SARS 2?
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Little hyperbolic there, SG. "Everyone".. "Dismissing"? I don't see evidence of either, and I'm not dismissing it, I'm suggesting it might be less important than hand -> mouth transmission.

The evidence of fast spread in family gatherings and nursing homes, while not being communicated at indoor events, looks more like a typical norovirus spread than 'flu.
 
Klimax said:
Even homemade mask will reduce exposure:
Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?

Some extra metastudies:
Surgical masks as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection
Effectiveness of Masks and Respirators Against Respiratory Infections in Healthcare Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
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The problem with applying these results is you don't know if the pathogen you are comparing isn't the exception.

For example, influenza is droplet spread most of the time. But on occasion there are airborne spread strains.

Aerosol transmission of influenza A virus: a review of new studies
Abstract

Over the past few years, prompted by pandemic preparedness initiatives, the debate over the modes of transmission of influenza has been rekindled and several reviews have appeared. Arguments supporting an important role for aerosol transmission that were reviewed included prolonged survival of the virus in aerosol suspensions, demonstration of the low infectious dose required for aerosol transmission in human volunteers, and clinical and epidemiological observations were disentanglements of large droplets and aerosol transmission was possible. Since these reviews were published, several new studies have been done and generated new data. These include direct demonstration of the presence of influenza viruses in aerosolized droplets from the tidal breathing of infected persons and in the air of an emergency department; the establishment of the guinea pig model for influenza transmission, where it was shown that aerosol transmission is important and probably modulated by temperature and humidity; the demonstration of some genetic determinants of airborne transmission of influenza viruses as assessed using the ferret model; and mathematical modelling studies that strongly support the aerosol route. These recent results and their implication for infection control of influenza are discussed in this review.
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I agree with some protection being useful.
 
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Planigale said:
I think this guy does not understand the issues. He seems to have invented a new concept virality. He has a preconceived notion that he argues towards rather than following the data. He seems unfamiliar with the literature e.g. he says no one knows what impact flight restrictions or school restrictions have, yet there is a lot of literature on this. Most telling is he never looks at deaths or hospital admissions and wghat impact this has on the health service. This is all empathy lite.

So well written, well presented, but wrong.
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I thought that his portrayal of Iceland's finding that 1.1 percent of residents that don't have symptoms are infected as a positive was a little strange. My hasty reading raised the concern that though he presented a lot of information he was somewhat selective on which information he based his conclusions.
 
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The Atheist said:
Little hyperbolic there, SG. "Everyone".. "Dismissing"? I don't see evidence of either, and I'm not dismissing it, I'm suggesting it might be less important than hand -> mouth transmission.

The evidence of fast spread in family gatherings and nursing homes, while not being communicated at indoor events, looks more like a typical norovirus spread than 'flu.
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Everyone in this case refers to all the people (here and elsewhere) citing Fauci as the last word on facts. Hyperbole feels appropriate at the moment.

Sorry, I don't mean everyone in the thread but there sure are a lot of people insisting droplet spread is all there is.
 
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William Parcher said:
Marriott International CEO just announced that he will take zero pay until the end of the year. His top staff will take a 50% cut in pay.

But then they are already multi-millionaires anyway.
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This is only meaningful if that money is used to keep more employees on the payroll. If it simply helps make the company look more profitable then I'm not impressed.
 
Max_mang said:
According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries - the amount of Serious/Critical cases in the United States is 64, which has not changed in at least 2 days.
Would anyone that doesn't qualify as serious/critical be taking up an ICU bed?
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I don't know. Germany is continually reporting more deaths than serious/critical cases. Does that mean that the majority of deaths in Germany are people who had only mild symptoms?
 
My girl friend will turn 71 in April. I'll be 78 in June. We're both healthy, even robust, non-smokers. I think we're at the low end of the risk scale for our age cohort -- but we're nonetheless of a dangerous age to be facing this pandemic.

Other than staying home, we don't have any strategy to avoid infection. Tactically, we use hand-washing and sanitizing surfaces like doorknobs and light switches. We also will change (and immediately launder) any garments we've worn on our rare, fast visits to stores or other public places.

At our age, we might turn fatalistic and take no precautions, but of course we won't. First, we damn well want to live, fiercely. Second, we know that common decency requires us to do everything we can not to infect others.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Some people ignore inconvenient truths. He probably hates the shut down and market crash more than he cares about how many people die.
...
Guess he missed the video of the convoy of military trucks hauling away caskets in Italy.
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That was what I was thinking too. And there are facts out there that he knows about and ignores. He mentions the Diamond Princess in some detail but then goes on about how there could be two orders of magnitude more infected, asymptomatic people than those confirmed generally. Really? The Diamond Princess isn't large enough to support even one order of magnitude more infected but undetected people. And while cruise ships skew toward older people who are more vulnerable, they also tend to be more healthy than the same demographic that doesn't go on cruises.

He sees what he wants to see. Not uncommon these days.
 
TellyKNeasuss said:
I don't know. Germany is continually reporting more deaths than serious/critical cases. Does that mean that the majority of deaths in Germany are people who had only mild symptoms?
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I said before they probably see no point in wasting precious resources on trivia for the masses, but it also might be that they're not noting them to avoid panic.

Keep calm & carry on.

(As long as you're testing the hell out of everyone, restricting crowds, etc)

sackett said:
Second, we know that common decency requires us to do everything we can not to infect others.
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That would make you fairly abnormal at this time - very few people I can see are thinking much about other people.
 
Some more tid-bits from this morning's news service.

1. Australia has processed more than 100,000 tests.
2. South Australia is considering closing its borders.
3. Overall Australia has more than one thousand confirmed cases.

(From Johns Hopkins):

State | Confirmed | Deaths | Recovered | Active
New South Wales |
436​
|
6​
|
4​
|
426​
|
Victoria |
229​
|
0​
|
8​
|
221​
|
Queensland |
221​
|
0​
|
8​
|
213​
|
Western Australia |
90​
|
1​
|
0​
|
89​
|
South Australia |
67​
|
0​
|
3​
|
64​
|
Tasmania |
16​
|
0​
|
3​
|
13​
|
Australian Capital Territory |
9​
|
0​
|
0​
|
9​
|
Northern Territory |
3​
|
0​
|
0​
|
3​
|
Total |
1,071​
 |
7​
 |
26​
 |
1,038​
 |
 
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novaphile said:
Some more tid-bits from this morning's news service.

1. Australia has processed more than 100,000 tests.
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That would make 1000 times more tests than NZ. Your population is 1000 times bigger than ours, so we're still even.
 
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