2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Skeptic Ginger]

It would only need to survive until inhaled by another person nearby.

The question remains: Does the virus exist in exhalation at all?

The speed with which this virus spread and the evidence it is spread from asymptomatic persons suggests, yes, viral shedding is occurring without coughing.

We also spray out little droplets when we speak.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

.... Possibly, maybe even probably, but it doesn't matter.

Even if you inhale ten single viruses, the chances of catching Covid-19 are virtually zero. It's not measles, and the number of cases where people have sat close to infected people on aeroplanes for 16 hours and not caught it shows that it's not an effective means of transmission.

I tell ya, hand - mouth is the route. Here's another example - a family reunion, no doubt with lots of close contact and kissing and eating food together: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51978164...

Not mutually exclusive. To know the actually percentages, one needs data, not hunches.

 

[Planigale]

Some interesting charts and analysis here, although I am still working through them myself.

I think this guy does not understand the issues. He seems to have invented a new concept virality. He has a preconceived notion that he argues towards rather than following the data. He seems unfamiliar with the literature e.g. he says no one knows what impact flight restrictions or school restrictions have, yet there is a lot of literature on this. Most telling is he never looks at deaths or hospital admissions and wghat impact this has on the health service. This is all empathy lite.

So well written, well presented, but wrong.

 

[crescent]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if not, what are the thoughts on this article? He says we're massively overreacting based on bad data. Written by a professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

From the second line paragraph in the article:

"At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact."

I think everyone would agree.

The problem is that policy makers have to make decisions right now.

The general tone of the article is "Gee, these measures might not be best. We need better data to be sure." He's right, but they might be the best. We need better data to be sure.

What we know, with certainty, is that health care systems are already straining in the United States, and we have barely begun. That doesn't happen every year with the flu. This isn't the flu. So, we know that the best response isn't to treat it like the flu, but what is the best response? We need more data to be sure, but we can't wait for more data.

In my humble opinion, some of that data could have been gathered during the two months when it was obvious this was on the way. Pity that didn't happen.

My impression matches Meadmaker's - the writer seems to making the perfect plan of tomorrow the enemy of a (maybe) good plan today. We may not have time to develop a good plan based upon good information until it is too late to enact such a plan.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if not, what are the thoughts on this article? He says we're massively overreacting based on bad data. Written by a professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Some people ignore inconvenient truths. He probably hates the shut down and market crash more than he cares about how many people die.

This I agree with:

Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.

Guess he missed the video of the convoy of military trucks hauling away caskets in Italy.

 

[Giordano]

Some interesting charts and analysis here, although I am still working through them myself.

I would be very cautious reaching conclusions from anything but a very cautious and skeptical study of that link. Every presentation and analysis appears designed to hand wave away the seriousness of the disease. A lot borders or worse on a “how to lie with numbers” lesson.

It would take a lot of time to address this point by point. But just as a beginning note that many of the graphs are semi-logarithmic plots, base 10, which greatly minimize the appearance of the exponential growth of the disease versus a linear plot. A ten fold increase comes off looking quite modest whereas in real life it is enormous. Irrelevant comparisons are made. Why do they bring up and emphasize an infection per capita comparison? That minimizes the “look” of the early stages of the disease in large countries without having any relevance to the growth rate of the infection or the ultimate numbers of people infected. Many similar graphs and interpretations of irrelevant numbers presented in distorted ways.

I sense a real agenda in which the authors spent every effort to consciously provide a dishonest distortion of the actual situation.

 

[Max_mang]

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries - the amount of Serious/Critical cases in the United States is 64, which has not changed in at least 2 days.
Would anyone that doesn't qualify as serious/critical be taking up an ICU bed?

 

[Giordano]

How are you rattling off these types of facts so quickly? Are you also in medicine or have you just been reading a lot?

I did research on viruses in grad school and as a post-doc. I gradually changed into working on cancer, although part of my research still focused on one particular virus that causes cancer in birds. Still work on aspects of cancer but I am a has-been virologist...

 

[chrispy]

Here in Guatemala we are, as of tomorrow, under national curfew from 4 PM until 4 AM for a minimum of 8 days. I have 2 packs of 24 beers, 2 tequila bottles, and 3 bottles of rum...oh, and a **** ton of non perishable food.

Our fresh food, open air market was shut this morning. We are settling in for some seriously weird times down here.

 

[chrispy]

I did research on viruses in grad school and as a post-doc. I gradually changed into working on cancer, although part of my research still focused on one particular virus that causes cancer in birds. Still work on aspects of cancer but I am a has-been virologist...

...aaaaaand this is why I love this forum.

 

[Giordano]

I think this guy does not understand the issues. He seems to have invented a new concept virality. He has a preconceived notion that he argues towards rather than following the data. He seems unfamiliar with the literature e.g. he says no one knows what impact flight restrictions or school restrictions have, yet there is a lot of literature on this. Most telling is he never looks at deaths or hospital admissions and wghat impact this has on the health service. This is all empathy lite.

So well written, well presented, but wrong.

I completely agree!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

True about the home infection, but the droplets from breathing or sneezing can spread quite far, and the masks definitely help there when not in the home.

That is why we in Hong Kong have been wearing them since the outbreak, and have 280 cases compared to 4000 in the UK, despite having had initial HK cases since the beginning.

One Chinese study on a bus case showed an initial infected person actually infected other people sitting over 4 metres away from her, much longer distance than was previously thought.

If you're in HK, no wonder you see the faults of the Chinese government as huge. From where I stand it was a minor delay compared to the government here in the US. And it was a fraction of the time it took China to recognize SARS 1.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries - the amount of Serious/Critical cases in the United States is 64, which has not changed in at least 2 days.
Would anyone that doesn't qualify as serious/critical be taking up an ICU bed?

That's a joke. There are more than 65 ICU patients here in WA State.

 

[Meridian]

Singapore starting to use a mobile phone app for contact tracing:

BBC News

It’s getting harder to keep up the contact tracing. We’ve all been asked to download an app which helps keep track of our as yet relatively unrestricted movements around the island.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think what he means is that if there were viruses in your exhaled air that weren't in liquid droplets (kind of just loose in the air you breathe out), then those viruses aren't a danger of causing infection as they quickly die in the absence of a liquid layer around them, but viruses in droplets in the air you exhale can be a potential cause of infection.

Aerosols remain viable > 3 hours in this study:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

 

[alfaniner]

I keep remembering Lord Farquar in Shrek: "Some of you may die, but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to make".

I saw that clip being used in a report on something Trump said, I'm sure.

The speed with which this virus spread and the evidence it is spread from asymptomatic persons suggests, yes, viral shedding is occurring without coughing.

We also spray out little droplets when we speak.

Bill Maher just about had a **** fit on his panel when Andrew Zimmern shouted an enthusiastic greeting and apparently sprayed it in addition to saying it. Not unjustifiably, of course.

 

[The Atheist]

Not mutually exclusive. To know the actually percentages, one needs data, not hunches.

We don't have data, but when there are multiple reports of people mingling with infected people at concerts and not catching Covid, I think it becomes more than a hunch.

Here in Guatemala we are, as of tomorrow, under national curfew from 4 PM until 4 AM for a minimum of 8 days. I have 2 packs of 24 beers, 2 tequila bottles, and 3 bottles of rum...oh, and a **** ton of non perishable food.

Now, that's prepared!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There is evidence from TB (another airborne infection) that singing is an especially high risk activity for transmission.

Where's your evidence of that?

Never mind, it's off topic.

 

[chrispy]

Now, that's prepared!

I try!

Joking aside, my friends and I have been slowly buying what we need for an extended period. We are VERY isolated, so if any supply chain problems come about we need to be at least a little prepared.

 

[William Parcher]

I hope it will force many CEOs to reconsider their excessive pay when their companies are only viable through governmental subsidy.

Marriott International CEO just announced that he will take zero pay until the end of the year. His top staff will take a 50% cut in pay.

But then they are already multi-millionaires anyway.