2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Giordano said:
Good question. I think it is complicated too. True water vapor is a gas; we exhale both the true gas and aerosols/droplets. Probably more of the latter the more forcibly we exhale (eg panting with exercise; I was amazed that people were still going to gyms).
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You seem to have concern about forceful exhalation such as panting. Would a sigh be similar? Also an audible forceful exhalation is used as a communication of personal exasperation.

Any concerns there you would like to talk about?
 
William Parcher said:
You seem to have concern about forceful exhalation such as panting. Would a sigh be similar? Also an audible forceful exhalation is used as a communication of personal exasperation.

Any concerns there you would like to talk about?
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There is evidence from TB (another airborne infection) that singing is an especially high risk activity for transmission.
 
The Atheist said:
That should be in the Covid Anger thread so I can how I really feel about both the people and the idiotic idea that we can get people to self-isolate after travelling.

For starters, since 99% of people land in Auckland and 2/3 come from outside Auckland, how would they get home?

Jacinda is proving herself as stupid as a chook in all this, but I have no time for that moron from the Ministry who constantly looks like a possum in the headlights. He's out of his depth by a very long way and seems to be lagging three weeks behind the dumbest country.

We're in for a very bad time here, and it is 100% down to governmental stupidity.

Here you go - I'll bet you our infection numbers increase by 50% today.
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The couple aren't "bad" people, they just weren't offered any other choices.

"Self-isolation" is a sick joke (pardon the pun) ;)
 
Doghouse Reilly said:
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if not, what are the thoughts on this article? He says we're massively overreacting based on bad data. Written by a professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
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From the second line paragraph in the article:

"At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact."

I think everyone would agree.

The problem is that policy makers have to make decisions right now.

The general tone of the article is "Gee, these measures might not be best. We need better data to be sure." He's right, but they might be the best. We need better data to be sure.

What we know, with certainty, is that health care systems are already straining in the United States, and we have barely begun. That doesn't happen every year with the flu. This isn't the flu. So, we know that the best response isn't to treat it like the flu, but what is the best response? We need more data to be sure, but we can't wait for more data.

In my humble opinion, some of that data could have been gathered during the two months when it was obvious this was on the way. Pity that didn't happen.
 
Forcing air through a wet filter sounds to me like an excellent way to create droplets.
 
From the perspective of an economist on what the future holds for the USA:

There is one much more likely -- but deeply undesirable -- way that we could achieve a strong economic recovery: governments relax social-distancing mandates because enough Americans have become infected so that society achieves herd immunity. This outcome is, unfortunately, far from an impossibility. Officially, about 15,000 people in the U.S. have been infected. Epidemiologists estimate that we would achieve herd immunity if about 60% of the population, or a little more than 200 million people, become infected. Even if the number of cases grows by only 10% per day, which is much slower than what we’ve seen so far in Europe and in the U.S., the 15,000 cases would grow to 200 million before the end of June.

In this scenario, there would be no reason for further social-distancing strictures. And it is true that the economy would begin to grow again in the second half of the year, as has been predicted by many forecasters.

But the costs of this scenario would be enormous. About 20% of those 200 million cases would require intensive care. Literally millions would die -- both from Covid-19 and from other ailments that an overwhelmed health-care system would be unable to treat.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...the-most-realistic-economic-forecast-is-awful

Anyone ant to give the odds on this?
 
Fast Eddie B said:
A snapshot just now of the countries in positions 4 through 6 in total cases:

[qimg]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49681978943_157fd99a45_c.jpg[/qimg]

Notable is the marked difference in the total cases to deaths ratio.
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That's if the extent of testing were the same and if all the deaths are being counted.

Maybe Germany really has detected most cases mild and severe. The US certainly hasn't. Same with Iran, they might really have tens of thousands of cases.
 
casebro said:
Particles is particles. The filer don't know the difference,

Do the filters we see floor people wear filer out viruses?You know, the ones that tie to the face? How? It must be a cheap improvement over the nuisance dust mask, they are disposable.
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I can't argue with the ignorance of your POV. Wet material acts like a wick for microorganisms. The water holds on to dust and things like smoke.

There is more than enough discussion in the thread of procedure/surgical masks and what they do and don't do.


Edited by Loss Leader: 
Quote edited to conform. SG's maturity in not rising to the bait is noted with pleasure.
 
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Ivor the Engineer said:
I posted many, many posts ago, that the size of the virus is ~150nm across. A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles 300nm in size.

Unless you are planning to get up-close to an infected person and be exposed to droplets containing the virus I don't see how wearing a mask (e.g., while shopping or otherwise walking about outside) is going to help very much.

If you are living with someone who has the virus and sharing facilities then you will probably become infected no matter what you do.
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I agree with your last sentence.

When a filter is dry, it absorbs droplets blocking them. And some of the virus is in droplets.

But if there is a sufficient amount of aerosolized virus, the N95 is not sufficient. For example, the mask will not stop measles. That's when you have to use self-contained air (SCBA).
 
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Economist Dude said:
governments relax social-distancing mandates
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That assumes people would actually go back to being in crowds and touching and the office and whatnot.

They might not do it now even if governments say it's all fine to do that.

"We are going to do a herd immunity experiment thing. You all are the herd. Right now we want you to mingle just like before the virus appeared. That's how this project goes. Many will die and it could be you or someone you love but please now just get out of your house and mingle. Kissy kissy smooch. Okay? Thank you!"
 
I do think that this will be a change event. It will precipitate a change to home working, virtual education etc. Not something that might not have happened eventually, but making it happen now. There have been far too many meetings which could have been on line. I think it may make clear how we can deliver a zero carbon economy. I think it may also leave many in poverty. It make cause a change in the US health care system. I hope it will force many CEOs to reconsider their excessive pay when their companies are only viable through governmental subsidy.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I agree with your last sentence.

When a filter is dry, it absorbs droplets blocking them. And some of the virus is in droplets.

But if there is a sufficient amount of aerosolized virus, the N95 is not sufficient. For example, the mask will not stop measles. That's when you have to use self-contained air (SCBA).
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As you know one of the most important differences between Covid-19 and measles in this regard is that measles (like smallpox) is infectious in much smaller sized aerosol particles than Covid-19. So measles stays in the air longer and needs better masks.
 
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William Parcher said:
That assumes people would actually go back to being in crowds and touching and the office and whatnot.

They might not do it now even if governments say it's all fine to do that.

"We are going to do a herd immunity experiment thing. You all are the herd. Right now we want you to mingle just like before the virus appeared. That's how this project goes. Many will die and it could be you or someone you love but please now just get out of your house and mingle. Kissy kissy smooch. Okay? Thank you!"
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I keep remembering Lord Farquar in Shrek: "Some of you may die, but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to make".
 
Giordano said:
As you know one of the most important differences between Covid-19 and measles in this regard is that measles (like smallpox) is infectious in much smaller sized aerosol particles than Covid-19. So measles stays in the air longer and needs better masks.
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How are you rattling off these types of facts so quickly? Are you also in medicine or have you just been reading a lot?
 
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