2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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When we breathe we exhale water vapor. You can see it in cold winter.

Would it be true that the coronavirus cannot be contained in that exhaled water vapor?

Note I am not talking about a cough or sneeze - this is a question about a normal exhalation.
 
Trump Tweets

HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine. The FDA has moved mountains - Thank You! Hopefully they will BOTH (H works better with A, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents).....

....be put in use IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE ARE DYING, MOVE FAST, and GOD BLESS EVERYONE! @US_FDA
@SteveFDA @CDCgov @DHSgov
So he’s gone from being incredibly dangerous by inaction to incredibly dangerous by spreading false hopes and interfering with an accurate scientific analysis of these drugs. “I bring you the cure! We can stop here!” He is a murderous clown.
 
When we breathe we exhale water vapor. You can see it in cold winter.

Would it be true that the coronavirus cannot be contained in that exhaled water vapor?

Note I am not talking about a cough or sneeze - this is a question about a normal exhalation.

Good question. I think it is complicated too. True water vapor is a gas; we exhale both the true gas and aerosols/droplets. Probably more of the latter the more forcibly we exhale (eg panting with exercise; I was amazed that people were still going to gyms).

I don’t think coronavirus can survive in the gaseous water vapor itself, but the presence of water vapor would probably reduce the evaporation of the droplets and allow them to persist linger.
 
So he’s gone from being incredibly dangerous by inaction to incredibly dangerous by spreading false hopes and interfering with an accurate scientific analysis of these drugs. “I bring you the cure! We can stop here!” He is a murderous clown.

I heard him in the press conference yesterday.

He said, essentially, "I'm smart. I have a hunch."

That's what he really thinks. No comment.
 
It would only need to survive until inhaled by another person nearby.

The question remains: Does the virus exist in exhalation at all?

The current wisdom is that the coronavirus itself is not infectious as a single virus particle: the lipid envelope is immediately ripped apart if not surrounded by a liquid pool. Water vapor is not the same as liquid water. I’ve seen this myself when others in my lab were taking electron microscope pictures of other enveloped viruses. If not processed properly drying would rip them apart.

So far that seems to remain true. Covid-19 exists in exhalations and remains infectious in the droplets in those exhalations, but not infectious as any of the single virus particles in those exhalations. If there are any single virus particles in those exhalations at all.
 
The current wisdom is that the coronavirus itself is not infectious as a single virus particle: the lipid envelope is immediately ripped apart if not surrounded by a liquid pool. Water vapor is not the same as liquid water. I’ve seen this myself when others in my lab were taking electron microscope pictures of other enveloped viruses. If not processed properly drying would rip them apart.

So far that seems to remain true. Covid-19 exists in exhalations and remains infectious in the droplets in those exhalations, but not infectious as any of the single virus particles in those exhalations. If there are any single virus particles in those exhalations at all.

Giordano, you are a good writer and usually very clear. I can't make much sense of the hi-lited part.

varied quote:
1) Covid-19 exists in exhalations and remains infectious in the droplets in those exhalations

2) but not infectious as any of the single virus particles in those exhalations

3) If there are any single virus particles in those exhalations at all
 
Maybe more like mid-April. The schools are mostly on holiday now because it is the end of the school year anyway. But they are due to reopen in the first or second week of April.

Ok, thanks. I was expecting a hit from the re-opening of public places, but the schools are the one I'm most curious about.

Apparantly people still aren't obeying the lock-down in Italy, which in some sense is good news: maybe it's not working not becuase it can't work, but just because in practice there isn't really a lock-down.

Sounds like the latter - 40% out and about isn't a lockdown at all.

I made comments about the end of January that I doubted western democracies' ability to do what China did in shutting people down.

For example, Germany has shown exactly 2 critical cases for quite a few days, in a period in which quite a few have died.

They probably figure it's irrelevant information at this stage. Someone - or several someones - in the medical system would need to spend time on something that's completely trivial when you get down to it.

A snapshot just now of the countries in positions 4 through 6 in total cases:

Notable is the marked difference in the total cases to deaths ratio.

All about testing. Test widely, get real data. Germany & South Korea provide the hope, Italy provides the evidence that if people don't work together - governments and citizens - the results are disastrous.

Education is a provincial responsibility in Canada, so school closures varied across the country. Some provinces closed schools as of Monday this week, while here in mine they stayed open all week. However a lot of parents kept their kids home and teachers were showing up to empty classrooms.

I took my kids out of school last Monday, because our testing has been so woefully inadequate, as we're now starting to see.

It would only need to survive until inhaled by another person nearby.

The question remains: Does the virus exist in exhalation at all?

Possibly, maybe even probably, but it doesn't matter.

Even if you inhale ten single viruses, the chances of catching Covid-19 are virtually zero. It's not measles, and the number of cases where people have sat close to infected people on aeroplanes for 16 hours and not caught it shows that it's not an effective means of transmission.

I tell ya, hand - mouth is the route. Here's another example - a family reunion, no doubt with lots of close contact and kissing and eating food together: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51978164

Worth noting that three of the dead were under 60, and one or two of them may have been well under.
 
So he’s gone from being incredibly dangerous by inaction to incredibly dangerous by spreading false hopes and interfering with an accurate scientific analysis of these drugs. “I bring you the cure! We can stop here!” He is a murderous clown.

Come in, at least give him credit for doing spelling.
 
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if not, what are the thoughts on this article? He says we're massively overreacting based on bad data. Written by a professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
 
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Giordano, you are a good writer and usually very clear. I can't make much sense of the hi-lited part.
I think what he means is that if there were viruses in your exhaled air that weren't in liquid droplets (kind of just loose in the air you breathe out), then those viruses aren't a danger of causing infection as they quickly die in the absence of a liquid layer around them, but viruses in droplets in the air you exhale can be a potential cause of infection.
 
Trump Tweets

HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine. The FDA has moved mountains - Thank You! Hopefully they will BOTH (H works better with A, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents).....

....be put in use IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE ARE DYING, MOVE FAST, and GOD BLESS EVERYONE! @US_FDA
@SteveFDA @CDCgov @DHSgov

I suspect he is responding to;
https://www.mediterranee-infection....2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf
Which shows why in studies one should report on an intention to treat basis.

In a non-randomised study, 42 patients were 'recruited' 26 agreed to try the treatment (hydroxychloroquine some of whom also got azithromycin) and 16 refused and were controls. Six hydroxychloroquine patients were 'lost to follow up', so the report is based on comparing twenty treated with 16 untreated. The outcome reported;

At day6 post-inclusion, 70% of hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were virologicaly cured comparing with 12.5% in the control group

This sounds great.

BUT

What happened to the six patients who received treatment but were lost to follow up?

One died. Three went to ITU. One got side effects and stopped treatment. One self discharged from the hospital. None of the untreated group died or went to ITU.

So another way of looking at it is the treatment might make you worse.

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin both have immunomodulatory effects that might worsen the disease. Both can cause heart problems and rarely cause sudden cardiac death. Covid does seem to affect the heart. So it is not irrational to think they might cause harm.

So encouraging people to take medicines outside of a properly regulated randomised controlled trial is dangerous, potentially even causing avoidable deaths.
 
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I think what he means is that if there were viruses in your exhaled air that weren't in liquid droplets (kind of just loose in the air you breathe out), then those viruses aren't a danger of causing infection as they quickly die in the absence of a liquid layer around them, but viruses in droplets in the air you exhale can be a potential cause of infection.

ah, ok.
 
I think what he means is that if there were viruses in your exhaled air that weren't in liquid droplets (kind of just loose in the air you breathe out), then those viruses aren't a danger of causing infection as they quickly die in the absence of a liquid layer around them, but viruses in droplets in the air you exhale can be a potential cause of infection.

Thank you. Yes that was what I was trying to say.
 
I know a couple that has just return to NZ from overseas. They arrived at Auckland airport, then flew to Nelson on a commercial flight with many other passengers, then went shopping for groceries in a crowded supermarket before "self-isolating" for two weeks. What is wrong with this picture?
 
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but if not, what are the thoughts on this article? He says we're massively overreacting based on bad data. Written by a professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

Yes it had, and it's pretty funny that the article is about bad data, then the author goes on extrapolate numbers on the single example of the Diamond Princess.

There's no doubt we're short of data on the disease overall, but at least we're slowly developing worthwhile information thanks to Germany and South Korea, but the fact that hospitals in badly-affected regions are being crushed gives the lie to the idea that it isn't that bad.

New York is right at the start of the outbreak and it seems the hospitals there are already at breaking point: https://www.wsj.com/articles/corona...ty-hospitals-were-getting-pounded-11584719908

Looks to me like the shortage of supplies is going to exacerbate an already-terrible situation.
 
I know a couple that has just return to NZ from overseas. They arrived at Auckland airport, then flew to Nelson on a commercial flight with many other passengers, then went shopping for groceries before "self-isolating" for two weeks. What is wrong with this picture?

That should be in the Covid Anger thread so I can how I really feel about both the people and the idiotic idea that we can get people to self-isolate after travelling.

For starters, since 99% of people land in Auckland and 2/3 come from outside Auckland, how would they get home?

Jacinda is proving herself as stupid as a chook in all this, but I have no time for that moron from the Ministry who constantly looks like a possum in the headlights. He's out of his depth by a very long way and seems to be lagging three weeks behind the dumbest country.

We're in for a very bad time here, and it is 100% down to governmental stupidity.

Here you go - I'll bet you our infection numbers increase by 50% today.
 
Particles is particles. The filer don't know the difference,

But I wouldn't expect a Nurse Pedant to know that.

But let's see what you do know: Do the filters we see floor people wear filer out viruses?You know, the ones that tie to the face? How? It must be a cheap improvement over the nuisance dust mask, they are disposable.

So much fun when a rank amateur gets into an argument with a professional....
 
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