2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[angrysoba]

Yep. Don’t panic but don’t be complacent.

 

[angrysoba]

This is good evidence that the actual death rate is much lower than the ones currently being used for various models. The case where we have complete data, The Diamond Princess, showed a 1% death rate but that was older people confined on a ship for an extended period of time, the South Korean rate is more likely to apply to general populations.

South Korea also has about 1% mortality. It may also be skewed towards those who fear they have it so may exclude a lot of asymptomatic cases, but it is still way worse than seasonal flu.

 

[Belz...]

Everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested. This makes it one of the best references for mortality rates. ~20% of the people aboard tested positive, just over half the people who tested positive showed no symptoms. Mortality for symptomatic cases was ~1.9%, for all cases was ~0.9%.


Applying these same ratios to the US give ~70million cases, 35 million symptomatic cases, 3million serious cases and300K deaths in the US, but age of the passengers on the ship probably skews the numbers on the high side. I have seen one attempt to adjust for age, and they reported an expected mortality rate for China of 0.5%. Countries with older populations would be higher.

So assuming the virus spreads widely and becomes endemic the ballpark for the US is 150K – 300K deaths over the next 1-2 years.


ETA:

My own WAG is that efforts to contain the spread of the virus, improved treatment and an eventual vaccine pull this even lower. 50K – 75K deaths in in the US over the next 2 years, most coming after the current panic has subsided and people have moved on to the next issue.

That sounds much more reasonable.

 

[Belz...]

Yep. Don’t panic but don’t be complacent.

Right. When the fire alarm rings in your office building, you don't keep working, but you don't throw yourself out the 20th storey window, either.

 

[Marcus]

Well, that's ridiculous. Unless you think 10x more people died and weren't counted in the Covid-19 deaths, it is a mathematical certainty that it is lower, since we don't know how many were infected and were not tested or hospitalised.

We just need to keep repeating this I guess, it just doesn't seem to sink in.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Yes.
I think this has been linked to, Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now.
The conclusions reached about death rates make sense.

Countries who are prepared and have enough hospital beds will probably have a rate between 0.5% and 1% and other countries up to 5%.

Yes. Chart 7 there is particularly illuminating!

 

[angrysoba]

Right. When the fire alarm rings in your office building, you don't keep working, but you don't throw yourself out the 20th storey window, either.

Not when you can do both!

 

[Belz...]

Not when you can do both!

Laptops are awesome.

 

[Marcus]

Everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested. This makes it one of the best references for mortality rates. ~20% of the people aboard tested positive, just over half the people who tested positive showed no symptoms. Mortality for symptomatic cases was ~1.9%, for all cases was ~0.9%.


Applying these same ratios to the US give ~70million cases, 35 million symptomatic cases, 3million serious cases and300K deaths in the US, but age of the passengers on the ship probably skews the numbers on the high side. I have seen one attempt to adjust for age, and they reported an expected mortality rate for China of 0.5%. Countries with older populations would be higher.

So assuming the virus spreads widely and becomes endemic the ballpark for the US is 150K – 300K deaths over the next 1-2 years.


ETA:

My own WAG is that efforts to contain the spread of the virus, improved treatment and an eventual vaccine pull this even lower. 50K – 75K deaths in in the US over the next 2 years, most coming after the current panic has subsided and people have moved on to the next issue.

This is a better summary, I posted before I read this. Your estimate of 150-300k deaths in the US I think will fall closer to the mark. I think we can still hope for less than that though.

 

[jadebox]

This is a better summary, I posted before I read this. Your estimate of 150-300k deaths in the US I think will fall closer to the mark. I think we can still hope for less than that though.

The death rate, of course, will also depend on the treatment provided. If we can successfully "spread out the curve" people overall will get better treatment and less will die.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Getting back to Covid-19 and those predicting the end of civilization: get a grip guys! The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 50 to 100 million people. Five to ten percent of the world's population! During a world war of unprecedented scope and violence. And much less ability to provide medical intervention. Society didn’t collapse. Anarchy didn’t reign.

As long as you weren't one of the 50 to 100 million who died.

 

[Belz...]

As long as you weren't one of the 50 to 100 million who died.

55 million people die every year. Just for perspective.

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested. This makes it one of the best references for mortality rates. ~20% of the people aboard tested positive, just over half the people who tested positive showed no symptoms. Mortality for symptomatic cases was ~1.9%, for all cases was ~0.9%.


Applying these same ratios to the US give ~70million cases, 35 million symptomatic cases, 3million serious cases and300K deaths in the US, but age of the passengers on the ship probably skews the numbers on the high side. I have seen one attempt to adjust for age, and they reported an expected mortality rate for China of 0.5%. Countries with older populations would be higher.

So assuming the virus spreads widely and becomes endemic the ballpark for the US is 150K – 300K deaths over the next 1-2 years.


ETA:

My own WAG is that efforts to contain the spread of the virus, improved treatment and an eventual vaccine pull this even lower. 50K – 75K deaths in in the US over the next 2 years, most coming after the current panic has subsided and people have moved on to the next issue.

The question would be how did the level of social distancing on the Diamond Princess compare to the level for the rest of us.

 

[The Atheist]

The measures we're taking are going to cause a global recession, probably. I don't think it's callous to wonder if it was worth it.

A recession of gigantic proportions.

I'll repeat myself by saying that a pragmatic view would have said to let the disease go.

Italy's officials claim 99% of deaths had at least one chronic disease.

Considering those people take up an enormous amount of health budgets worldwide, letting the disease run would not just avoid a deep recession, but also save trillions in unused medical care and unmade pensions payments.

Yeah, re Germany's low death rate, and whether old infections show: Do ooold Corona virus infections show? Corona viruses are known causes of the common cold- and SARS. Perhaps Europe has a high incidence if CV colds? Or old people in convalescent home did, or they just lived longer so had more time to catch a CV cold? And/or, the CV cold give immunity to Covid 19? Like cow pox and small pox?

No.

The test is for Covid-19 only, and while false positives are possible, other diseases won't show one.

There is some possibility having recent colds caused by coronavirus gives limited immunity.

 

[marting]

And if we ever needed more evidence of both asymptomatic cases and the value of widespread testing, here it is: the Italian town where new infections have ceased.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ss-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

Getting to the essential statistical info:

1. The town has 3000 residents.
2. There were "at least" 90 infected at the study's initiation on 3/6 when they started testing all residents.
3. This testing identified 66 new cases.
4. Of the 66, 6 were asymptomatic.
5. New cases have ceased, currently.

This is encouraging. It also shows that testing should be limited to symptomatic people and families of positives until test availability is sufficient to expand to all the asymptomatic. Said another way, testing, while limited availability exists, should focus on the population most likely to yield a positive.

 

[The Atheist]

Ok, and now for some good news!

Japanese 'flu drug Avigan has been shown to work in reducing the term and severity of Covid-19, according to two Chinese trials.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200317_48/

South Korea has had zero cases of medical professional catch it (and why their numbers are so starkly positive):

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

ETA one for Pipeline - It looks like heat & humidity do play a role: https://news.yahoo.com/study-says-high-temperature-high-213034915.html

 

[Red Baron Farms]

Problem is the world is no longer the world of the early 20th century. You can think of it as everything back then was localised, milk running out wouldn't happen as the dairy man would still be collecting milk from local farms. If he was ill or died anyone else could step up to do that job. So you would not run out of milk, the same for nearly every other basic food stuffs. To get milk to people now is a hugely complex system with many areas of specialist knowledge, we are also JITed to our eyeballs so one processing plant not being manned for several days could easily disrupt millions of people's access to fresh milk.

I agree that it isn't apocalyptic but comparison with over a century ago is not useful in knowing how to cope with this today.

I have been campaigning for a more robust food system for a long time now. This will show exactly how vulnerable food security actually is.... and maybe instead of crying in the wilderness, I might actually get that investment I was asking for now a few years.

 

[Sherkeu]

What's going on in Germany?

Over twelve thousand cases (5th most in the world) and only 28 deaths.

Perhaps because Germany is smart!? (this time)

They would want ALL the data for everyone who gets the virus, whether or not they need care. Good data can provide a lot of information to doctors and researchers on the risk/benefit factors, whether it is age, genetics, blood type, chronic diseases, hormones, medications, fishy diets, occupations, people who dye their hair...everything. The people who don't have symptoms are just as important to look at.

Also, by finding absolutely every case possible and reporting that big number, it may sway people away from their borders seeking care. They are already asking for 'papers' at reinstated border checks. Germany has the most ICU beds and the most ventilators in Europe- thousands more. Everyone will want to go there. They probably would like to use them for Germans first- and they may need them all.

That's my guess.

 

[Belz...]

Perhaps because Germany is smart!?

Back in 2011 they sold out iodine pills in response to Fukushima.

Not always smart.

 

[Giordano]

As long as you weren't one of the 50 to 100 million who died.

If this is humor, that for the dead it was the "end of civilization" from their point of view, okay...

But there has recently been a component in this thread that coronavirus will be the end of civilization and society for the living. My point, and what I literally wrote, was that the 1918 pandemic of influenza was not and COVID-19 will not be either.