2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Who said trolley problems were pointless?

Let's say you have a runaway trolley and it is about to run over a really huge pile of money.

How huge would this pile of money have to be before you pull a switch and steer it in to the path of five geriatric people?
 
angrysoba said:
Who said trolley problems were pointless?

Let's say you have a runaway trolley and it is about to run over a really huge pile of money.

How huge would this pile of money have to be before you pull a switch and steer it in to the path of five geriatric people?
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Who gets the money? Could the geriatric people be made to earn money as indentured servants? Do the geriatric people own any money, and what is written in their wills? Are any of them still employed and can I have one of their jobs?

I'm just saying, there's a lot of angles to consider here.
 
A prediction I can check later. If there's any forum to check, that is.

I think 6.5 to 10 million will die in the U.S. from Covid-19 in the next 2 years.

Then in 2 years the vaccine will have worked.

That's based on current population, 50% infection rate, 4% of that dying.

The U.S. will eventually come out of this chaos, but not after things fall apart considerably -- I mean there will be some violent anarchy in the coming years. Since this is a trivial prediction all around, I have no idea how much anarchy.

This is nothing more than my last "intuition" check.
 
Yeah, re Germany's low death rate, and whether old infections show: Do ooold Corona virus infections show? Corona viruses are known causes of the common cold- and SARS. Perhaps Europe has a high incidence if CV colds? Or old people in convalescent home did, or they just lived longer so had more time to catch a CV cold? And/or, the CV cold give immunity to Covid 19? Like cow pox and small pox?
 
Belz... said:
But is it wrong? We're allowed to discuss topics without banning dispassionate views.

The measures we're taking are going to cause a global recession, probably. I don't think it's callous to wonder if it was worth it.
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Kind of a reverse trickle down. No data purely gut feeling but I think there will be more deaths from increased mal nourishment/starvation and diseases among the poor of the world then killed from the virus.
 
Capsid said:
Usually, in those cases, the person has had a previous positive test result.
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Yes. The take-away for someone like me, who had matching symptoms over 2 weeks ago, but could not be tested, is that it's too late now. :mad:

Had positive test and recovered: : Negative test result
Never had it: Negative test result
 
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Sherkeu said:
Yes. The take-away for someone like me, who had matching symptoms over 2 weeks ago, but could not be tested, is that it's too late now. :mad:

Had positive test and recovered: : Negative test result
Never had it: Negative test result
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I know that in one of the recent UK briefings, the chief medical officer was talking about how a test that can tell if someone has had it would be a game changer. They talked about it as though it is pretty feasible to create eventually although I don't remember them giving a timeline for it.
 
I think that when things get going in Africa, they'll have a 10% death-rate.

And that's only for covid-19. With collapsed health care world-wide, there will be a lot of death that would have been prevented with medical care.

This is going to hit every country in the world nearly simultaneously. The global polical situation is going to get very dire. This is not going to bring out the best in international cooperation.
 
calebprime said:
That's based on current population, 50% infection rate, 4% of that dying.
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Why assume 50%, and why use such a high mortality rate?

We're pretty sure 8000 have died from this virus so far but the 200k infected is probably way too low. The actual mortality rate is therefore way lower than 4%. Probably lower than 1%.
 
My % of infection was conservative compared to British plans. 4% death-rate is current rate. I don't think Italy or Iran are going to outliers. Every country in the world has unhealthy people.

But I admit I'm pulling the 4% from very superficial reasoning, if not from my nether regions, as they like to say.

What I'm doing here is logging my gut feeling.

I don't believe any close reasoning about death-rates. I go by past numbers. Not too sophisticated.
 
calebprime said:
4% death-rate is current rate.
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Because we don't know how many are infected. Some are predicting that it's 10 times the confirmed number, which would cut the death rate to 0.34%, and even that's mostly at-risk people. Those numbers aren't exactly scary. The issue is if a huge chunk of people need to take sick leave at once.
 
*If*?

*When* every health-care system either collapses or there are draconian measures.

Take your pick.
 
calebprime said:
*If*?

*When* every health-care system either collapses or there are draconian measures.

Take your pick.
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Could you at the very least acknowledge my main point about the death rate?

At this point we're pretty much on lockdown in Canada. If you don't think that's a draconian measure I don't know what is.
 
I acknowledge your point in the sense that there is uncertainty. Not that we're sure the rate is going to be lower.

And no, border closings are not what I'm talking about.

I mean really bad stuff. Here we reach the limits of my little suburban imagination.
 
Belz... said:
Because we don't know how many are infected. Some are predicting that it's 10 times the confirmed number, which would cut the death rate to 0.34%, and even that's mostly at-risk people. Those numbers aren't exactly scary. The issue is if a huge chunk of people need to take sick leave at once.
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Certainly we have no idea how many people are infected. And the possibility that many times the number are asymptomatic certainly means a far lower mortality rate.

There is one rather worrying point that points in the other direction, though. Some mortality rates are being determined according to how many have died compared with the number of all cases, but if we take only the completed ones (i.e recovery or death), the mortality rate has shot up to about 9-10%!
 
calebprime said:
I acknowledge your point in the sense that there is uncertainty. Not that we're sure the rate is going to be lower.
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Well, that's ridiculous. Unless you think 10x more people died and weren't counted in the Covid-19 deaths, it is a mathematical certainty that it is lower, since we don't know how many were infected and were not tested or hospitalised.

And no, border closings are not what I'm talking about.
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Neither am I. Never mentioned it. All businesses are closing except essential stuff.
 
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