2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Skeptic Ginger said:
You have yet to tell us why you are qualified to conclude this or many other things you post.
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An appeal to expertise is irrelevant. On a skeptic site we should look at the argument not who makes it. Whether I have a degree in medicine and did research in virology and infectious disease transmission is irrelevant to whether the case I make is evidence based. When you fairly criticise my argument that is justified, but it has to based on the evidence.

When I say that someone who voices an opinion based on being 'an associate Professor of Epidemiology' with no background in health policy, communicable disease control, or modelling of infectious disease, is less qualified than me to comment, it just means that his opinion should be justified not accepted because he works at an US university instead of what used to be called a large clap clinic with a small hospital attached (which is where he started).
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Use homemade masks as a last resort but if you do, do it right.
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I was taking the cue from your "better than nothing" post. Mostly we can manufacture quickly some cotton masks so that coughers aren't directly shooting at their grandmas. I figured that's better than nothing
 
Planigale said:
An appeal to expertise is irrelevant. On a skeptic site we should look at the argument not who makes it. Whether I have a degree in medicine and did research in virology and infectious disease transmission is irrelevant to whether the case I make is evidence based. When you fairly criticise my argument that is justified, but it has to based on the evidence.

When I say that someone who voices an opinion based on being 'an associate Professor of Epidemiology' with no background in health policy, communicable disease control, or modelling of infectious disease, is less qualified than me to comment, it just means that his opinion should be justified not accepted because he works at an US university instead of what used to be called a large clap clinic with a small hospital attached (which is where he started).
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You claimed without any supporting evidence that someone was unqualified to be called an epidemiologist.

Just asking what makes you qualified to say so.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
You claimed without any supporting evidence that someone was unqualified to be called an epidemiologist.

Just asking what makes you qualified to say so.
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I read his CV and publications.

No training or publications in public health, health policy, communicable disease control, or epidemiology, one publication out of 140 odd as fourth author on epidemiology, and none on disease modelling. Not medically qualified.

Excellent publications on bacterial genetics.
 
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Planigale said:
An appeal to expertise is irrelevant. On a skeptic site we should look at the argument not who makes it. Whether I have a degree in medicine and did research in virology and infectious disease transmission is irrelevant to whether the case I make is evidence based. When you fairly criticise my argument that is justified, but it has to based on the evidence.

When I say that someone who voices an opinion based on being 'an associate Professor of Epidemiology' with no background in health policy, communicable disease control, or modelling of infectious disease, is less qualified than me to comment, it just means that his opinion should be justified not accepted because he works at an US university instead of what used to be called a large clap clinic with a small hospital attached (which is where he started).
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You are just wrong here. I’ll repeat that, you are just wrong. Hanage is precisely the expert you deny him to be and any forum member can follow the links to confirm that for themselves. I attempted to explain why to you, thinking perhaps you missed reading the relevant information or didn’t understand exactly how his work was indeed at the heart of modern epidemiology. But now you are simply denying the obvious and undeniable facts. Absurd!

The best part of this Forum is having information presented here for the benefit of those who wish to learn more about stuff they didn’t previously know. There are many posters whose opinions I respect because, although not beginning as “official” experts, have an open mind and allowed themselves to become knowledgeable about certain topics. I even like to think that I sometimes can achieve that goal, although as most I have an ego that can get in the way of doing that to the fullest potential. But I have no interest in getting into a peeing contest with anyone who is far more interested in pretending they are correct rather than actually being correct. That is what invalidates the value of their opinions; not the lack of a form degree.
 
pipelineaudio said:
Facebook is pulling down videos of allegedly an infected cruise ship in hawaii disembarking and someone had unlocked the security gates at the dock. They're just walking right through what was usually a checkpoint. Some locals were filming and putting videos up, but they've been pulled
See how long this one lasts https://www.facebook.com/kealii.lum...ref=gs&dti=1463552550574086&hc_location=group
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Comments there says this is a cruise ship without passengers which the authorities know about and has allowed to dock. The crew has allegedly been at sea for over 14 days w/o symptoms.
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
I don't see this lasting in form for longer than a month.

I think we will see ways to screen for people with elevated temperature at entrances to public places - instead of bothering with a metal detector at school.
Employees could be required to check for fever and log their temperature every morning.
Maybe it will become compulsory in public life to have a wearable that checks your health.

But this isolation isn't going to survive until summer - simply because the gird won't be able to deal with the power needs of air conditioning.
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The reporters going into the White House briefings were talking about having their temperatures being taken.

The problem I see with this is that there seems to be increasing evidence that pre-symptomatic (if not asymptomatic) carriers can still shed virus, and possibly even more than the ones who have become symptomatic.

It doesn't look like merely taking temperatures is enough of a prevention step.
 
Planigale said:
I read his CV and publications.

No training or publications in public health, health policy, communicable disease control, or epidemiology, one publication out of 140 odd as fourth author on epidemiology, and none on disease modelling. Not medically qualified.

Excellent publications on bacterial genetics.
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What I posted above. Any one can follow the links to his publications and find out for themselves. His publications are practically all disease modeling and investigating the spread through the human population of disease organisms. Epidemiology! I don’t recall any one suggesting he was an expert in public health or health policy.

For those who may not know: first and last position on a publication are the highest level positions: first Position typically for those who did the bench work (often beginning investigators) and last for the head of the lab who did the overall planning, design, analysis, and is most responsible for the overall work.
 
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Planigale said:
An appeal to expertise is irrelevant. On a skeptic site we should look at the argument not who makes it. Whether I have a degree in medicine and did research in virology and infectious disease transmission is irrelevant to whether the case I make is evidence based. When you fairly criticise my argument that is justified, but it has to based on the evidence.

When I say that someone who voices an opinion based on being 'an associate Professor of Epidemiology' with no background in health policy, communicable disease control, or modelling of infectious disease, is less qualified than me to comment, it just means that his opinion should be justified not accepted because he works at an US university instead of what used to be called a large clap clinic with a small hospital attached (which is where he started).
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If nothing else we are compelled to recognize your expertise at well-poisoning.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
Use homemade masks as a last resort but if you do, do it right.

Simple Respiratory Mask
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/php/87/87_letter.pdf
CIDRAP - Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy suggests this homemade mask because it has been tested.

"The article contains specific instructions on how to construct a handmade mask, which was tested against an aerosol challenge with some measurable benefit. The authors of this brief study admit that there are problems with the masks' overall efficacy and risk of improper construction or use. Since cottage industries for masks may arise during a pandemic, it is crucial to list possible effective alternatives and limitations in their use. One reviewer suggested that if people will be inclined to use any protection they can acquire during a pandemic, it may be good practice to test possible alternatives prior to a health emergency. This practice may represent an alternative to using respirators or surgical masks that may be in short supply during a pandemic, and it may stimulate exploration of other PPE possibilities."
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That is an interesting and useful article.

I am somewhat curious about how difficult it is to breath through nine layers of military grade, heavy-duty, 2-ply tee shirt material. I have no idea how significantly that differs from, say, a Hanes "Mighty" tee, and nine layers of that would be fairly hard.
 
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Planigale said:
An appeal to expertise is irrelevant. On a skeptic site we should look at the argument not who makes it. Whether I have a degree in medicine and did research in virology and infectious disease transmission is irrelevant to whether the case I make is evidence based. When you fairly criticise my argument that is justified, but it has to based on the evidence.
When I say that someone who voices an opinion based on being 'an associate Professor of Epidemiology' with no background in health policy, communicable disease control, or modelling of infectious disease, is less qualified than me to comment, it just means that his opinion should be justified not accepted because he works at an US university instead of what used to be called a large clap clinic with a small hospital attached (which is where he started).
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Try rereading this in the cold light of day. Yes, whether you have a degree in medicine or did research in virology is very relevant. It helps determines if you truly understand the evidence you present and its implications. And many of those on this forum are trying to explain to you that based on your posts you are not fully understanding the evidence you are presenting.

But as I’ve posted upthread having a degree or doing research is not essential. You could have acquired the knowledge and training in many other ways. But that would have required recognizing that others had more knowledge than you and the willingness to learn from them. One should especially take that into account before blithely valuing one’s one opinion above a clearly established expert.
 
In what can best be described, I suppose, as an abundance of caution. Dare County, NC has closed its borders to everyone who is not a resident, property owner, or employee who works there. This includes police checkpoints and all that.

For those unfamiliar with North Carolina geography, Dare County is comprised of two significant parts. The mainland part is just about entirely one (well,two, technically, I guess) large, rather swampy wildlife refuge. The other is most of the Outer Banks of NC.

They can do this because there are only two roads and two bridges that access the county. One of those bridges goes to the Outer Banks at Kitty Hawk from Currituck County. One of those roads is on the Outer Banks from the Currituck portion of the Banks just north of Kitty Hawk.

I suppose they don't want a bunch of riff-raff tourists flooding the beaches there because they have nothing else to do, but since the Governor has shut down all the restaurants, bars, schools, group gatherings, etc., I guess there's no reason for anyone to be there except to play in the surf, and mebbe hide from the virus.

Fun Fact; Dare has the distinction of being both the largest and among the smaller (68th out of 100) counties in the state. Its borders include most of Pamlico and some of Currituck sounds, which gets it its "largest" title, but by land area it drops rather precipitously in the rankings.
 
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Planigale said:
I read his CV and publications.

No training or publications in public health, health policy, communicable disease control, or epidemiology, one publication out of 140 odd as fourth author on epidemiology, and none on disease modelling. Not medically qualified.

Excellent publications on bacterial genetics.
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Giordano said:
What I posted above. Any one can follow the links to his publications and find out for themselves. His publications are practically all disease modeling and investigating the spread through the human population of disease organisms. Epidemiology! I don’t recall any one suggesting he was an expert in public health or health policy.

For those who may not know: first and last position on a publication are the highest level positions: first Position typically for those who did the bench work (often beginning investigators) and last for the head of the lab who did the overall planning, design, analysis, and is most responsible for the overall work.
Click to expand...
Skeptic Ginger said:
You claimed without any supporting evidence that someone was unqualified to be called an epidemiologist.

Just asking what makes you qualified to say so.
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Jesus Christ! There was just a long, irrelevant argument about an osteopath. We going to go through this again?
 
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Global death number as of today, 7,905. The tenth leading cause of death in a single country, the US, in 2017 was 47,173. Yes, I know it is early in the epidemic for some countries, but the risk seems way out of proportion with the economic destruction already caused.
 
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