2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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chrispy said:
Hearing from friends in LA that there were lines outside of gun stores and pawn shops the last few days. Anyone think rioting and/or looting is a possibility?
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Did they at least kept appropriate distance between individuals in the lines?
 
Any one else think we'll start seeing a surge of births in nine months time if people are stuck at home with nothing else to do...
 
Ulf Nereng said:
Probably the biggest thing any of us have lived through, unless someone is old enough to remember World War II! I saw someone comment yesterday that we have to plan for this to go on untill second quarter of 2021. If it does we'll be living in a very different world.
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Without a treatment in the very short term, that's exactly what will be needed, because otherwise, once the lockdown is lifted, it will take off again immediately.

chrispy said:
I sure hope not. I can't afford for this to go on. I earn the equivalent of roughly $3.00 American Dollars an hour. With no tourism I have no job and can't pay my workers let alone my rent. :eek::eek:
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No consolation, but you're not alone. There are millions of workers with no income.

I said this would be the biggest economic shock since 1929, and I fully expect to see soup kitchens as it really starts to bite.

Skeptic Ginger said:
What about African countries? The rest of Asia?

Seems like our news is missing big sections of the planet.
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To me, the two biggest anomalies are Japan and Hawaii.

Both had early arrival of the disease, treated it with disdain, are in direct paths of millions of Chinese visitors, but aren't swamped by it.

Cheetah said:
A team from the University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research claims to have found a very effective treatment using a combination of chloroquine and an old HIV drug that has been replaced by a newer generation of drugs.
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Boody Aussies trying to take credit!

I've been banging the chloroquine drum for a while - but make sure it's the phosphate, the sulphate version is no good.

We should have results from China's testing within a fortnight. I thought we'd have interim results for a couple by now, but we're definitely due to have some worthwhile information by 5 April.

If I get it, I'll certainly be asking for chloroquine phosphate and whichever HIV drug it is. Thailand used it first, I believe.

This is The End said:
Bumping this because I still need a site with that type of compiled, running list.
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Try here - it seems pretty comprehensive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Kings Full said:
Don''t know about NZ but the US is ramping up testing. Over 1.4M additional test kits available this week and the number will more than double the week after.
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This is where we are with testing: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-family-holiday-turns-into-selfisolation-hell

Utterly ridiculous - WHO says "Test, test, test!" and in NZ, you can't get tested unless you've licked the spittle off a dying Covid-19 patient.

chrispy said:
Hearing from friends in LA that there were lines outside of gun stores and pawn shops the last few days. Anyone think rioting and/or looting is a possibility?
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Yep, I said that back in the first couple of pages of the first thread.
 
dudalb said:
DOnnie shows his compassion for Corona 19 victims"

From the WAPO"

President Trump told governors Monday that states should work on getting respirators and ventilators, and not wait for the federal government to provide them. The president’s comment was confirmed by multiple officials briefed on the call to governors earlier today.


Lets here the Trump worshippers defend this one.
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I don't get it. Isn't he just saying that, if states can get one before the feds provide one, they should?

What am I missing?

Trump just gave his Corona Response a 10 out of 10.
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Of course he did.
 
Another question: (thanks for the replies to my last one. I did read them! And the direct question back to me - do I believe the numbers - was answered by others).

Why aren't we trying to use mobile phones to do contact tracing (semi-)automatically? It wouldn't be perfect, but given the current level of panic it seems likely to be possible to persuade many/most people to run an app on their phone that is constantly monitoring who they are near, and recording `contacts'. (It could also allow user input to make things more precise.) I realize it might be difficult to tell whether people are really close to each other, but still, partial data would surely be more useful than no data.

You would think that it could potentially be used for: automatically notifying contacts of confirmed cases early; trying to identify cases without testing using data mining (you'd need to ask people to input some health data - then a cluster of people who've been in contact and all have raised temperatures might trigger a warning, for example); also, letting people know by some kind of score how effective their social distancing is. (On the last one the hope would be to make it some kind of competetive game, if you see what I mean.)

I imagine google are best placed to do this quickly, but people might not trust them. In principle someone else could write such an app, and it would be useful even if it's only used within a local region.

And with enough data, I suspect that data mining/AI approaches would discover quite a bit more about how it's spread.
 
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This is The End said:
Bumping this because I still need a site with that type of compiled, running list. Apologies if it was linked to me later in the thread.
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Enter your Google search, then switch to Images. I had a hard time finding a chart I was looking for until I did this.

Ulf Nereng said:
Probably the biggest thing any of us have lived through, unless someone is old enough to remember World War II! I saw someone comment yesterday that we have to plan for this to go on untill second quarter of 2021. If it does we'll be living in a very different world.
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I think the next 3-4 months will be really bad. By second quarter of 2021, the virus will have run its course and we'll likely have a vaccine.

chrispy said:
Italy now over 2100 dead. 1/2 of French cases are UNDER 60 years old.
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I understand that one of the prime factors for strong effect is smoking. Don't they smoke a lot in France?

carlosy said:
Did they at least kept appropriate distance between individuals in the lines?
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Yes, it's called "rifle-length distance".

The Atheist said:
Very good point! Baby Boom 2.0.
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aka "The Coronials"
 
There is going to be leakage, at grocery stores or such. Or via delivery drivers. In a few weeks we will ALL have been exposed. No more need for quarantines. How long will that take?
 
current stats:

ACTIVE CASES
100,009

Currently Infected Patients
93,518 (94%)
in Mild Condition

6,491 (6%)
Serious or Critical


CLOSED CASES
88,347

Cases which had an outcome:
80,848 (92%)
Recovered / Discharged

7,499 (8%)
Deaths

today's numbers, from:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


I don't like these odds -- especially as I'm over 60 and have some health issues. A lot of people have health issues. They really shouldn't like those odds, either.
 
The use of face masks has been debated a lot, and here is an interesting opinion piece about how telling people not to wear face masks has been a poor message.

First, many health experts, including the surgeon general of the United States, told the public simultaneously that masks weren’t necessary for protecting the general public and that health care workers needed the dwindling supply. This contradiction confuses an ordinary listener. How do these masks magically protect the wearers only and only if they work in a particular field?

Second, there were attempts to bolster the first message, that ordinary people didn’t need masks, by telling people that masks, especially medical-grade respirator masks (such as the N95 masks), needed proper fitting and that ordinary people without such fitting wouldn’t benefit. This message was also deeply counterproductive. Many people also wash their hands wrong, but we don’t respond to that by telling them not to bother...

Third, of course masks work — maybe not perfectly and not all to the same degree, but they provide some protection....(worth reading more)...


Fourth, the W.H.O. and the C.D.C. told the public to wear masks if they were sick. However, there is increasing evidence of asymptomatic transmission, especially through younger people who have milder cases and don’t know they are sick but are still infectious. Since the W.H.O. and the C.D.C. do say that masks lessen the chances that infected people will infect others, then everyone should use masks. If the public is told that only the sick people are to wear masks, then those who do wear them will be stigmatized and people may well avoid wearing them if it screams “I’m sick.” ...

Fifth, places like Hong Kong and Taiwan that jumped to action early with social distancing and universal mask wearing have the pandemic under much greater control, despite having significant travel from mainland China. Hong Kong health officials credit universal mask wearing as part of the solution and recommend universal mask wearing. In fact, Taiwan responded to the coronavirus by immediately ramping up mask production.

Sixth, masks are an important signal that it’s not business as usual as well as an act of solidarity. Pandemics require us to change our behavior — our socialization, hygiene, work and more — collectively, and knowing our fellow citizens are on board is important for all efforts.
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Link
 
This document from Imperial College (sorry, can't find a direct link) https://www.tes.com/teaching-resource/16-march-2020-imperial-college-covid-19-response-team-12268667 answers some of my questions.

Firstly it says that based on new estimates from th last few days, it is worth going for suppression rather than just spreading out the peak.

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
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Also, it does mention the mobile phone app idea, in the context of why a few months delay may be worth while.

The measures used to achieve suppression might also evolve over time. As case numbers fall, it becomes more feasible to adopt intensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures akin to the strategies being employed in South Korea today. Technology – such as mobile phone apps that track an individual’s interactions with other people in society – might allow such a policy to be more effective and scalable if the associated privacy concerns can be overcome. However, if intensive NPI packages aimed at suppression are not maintained, our analysis suggests that transmission will rapidly rebound, potentially producing an epidemic comparable in scale to what would have been seen had no interventions been adopted.
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casebro said:
There is going to be leakage, at grocery stores or such. Or via delivery drivers. In a few weeks we will ALL have been exposed. No more need for quarantines. How long will that take?
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Pick your parameter values and model! :)

Doubling time, US: 3 days*
Start (today, Day 0): 1,000 cases

All over within two months.

Of course it may take months to reach some well-stocked prepper somewhere in remote Idaho ...

Your turn ...

*But my mail is forwarded, I don't go out, no one comes to see me, etc ... so maybe a week is more realistic?
 
LondonJohn said:
Also, the available data (even accounting for a degree of unreliability) does appear fairly conclusive in areas such as death by age group band. It appears clear that the overwhelming majority of deaths have occurred - and will continue to occur - among either the over-70s or those with very serious underlying medical conditions.

Obviously there will always be exceptions which prove the rule, and there will almost without doubt be fit, healthy, young (say, 20-40) people who will die. But their numbers are almost certain to be a tiny blip on the chart when compared with deaths of elderly and health-compromised people.
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Some room for quibbling:
- the data, e.g. from China, show that those in their 60s also have rather high death rates (once they're infected), ~5%
- the underlying medical conditions which may contribute to early death - for both young and old - seem to include decades of heavy smoking
- no data yet on how the death rates differ with general health among the chronically malnourished
 
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