2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[dudalb]

I think the Governor of New York has the right idea;treat his as a war. Total commitment of resources.
Get all factories that can produce ventilotors to make venilators.
Same of other Medical equipment.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

But those people will still have been presenting with Covid-19-like symptoms (respiration problems, high fever, etc), so I'd find it hard to believe that if they went through hospital admission with those symptoms, the hospital wouldn't have tested them. And if they stayed and died at home, there'd have to be an autopsy, which would almost certainly detect the lung scarring/fibrosis along with post-mortem blood tests. I suppose that these sorts of Covid-19 deaths might lag by a couple of days in their detection and reporting, but I find it hard to believe that they would (as a rule) be missed altogether.

You're in London. I'm here in WA where the authorities totally missed the outbreak for a month. And there weren't enough tests even to test people with symptoms in the hospital.

There were 11 deaths in the 3 weeks prior to the recognition there was a problem at Life Care Center. AFAIK, none of those were tested post-mortem. 11 deaths in 3 weeks is extremely abnormal.

I can't find a print version yet but Laurie Garrett (The Coming Plague) was on my public radio station a few minutes ago recommending specimens from every respiratory failure death of unknown cause since early Jan be tested.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It’s not your POV that’s the problem: it’s your doubling down when a simple admission of misreading could have moved the discussion on. It’s an almost Trumpian refusal to accept you made a mistake and a knee-jerk blaming of others for pointing out the mistake that’s amazing.

Stop clutching your pearls. Why would I admit I believed something different than I said I believed?

It's a difference of opinion.

There's no insult here.

 

[alfaniner]

San Francisco just issued a shelter in place order:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/arti...San-Francisco-Mayor-London-Breed-15135075.php

"Order"? How is it enforced? Even if this were in place here, I'd still like to go out for a walk or a drive to no place in particular.

Our Mayor just ordered all bars, restaurants, and the like closed as of noon tomorrow. Considering it's St. Patrick's Day, normally heavily celebrated in this area, that's another sign that something really drastic is happening.

U.S. Dow Jones Average is down almost 3000 points (nearly 13%). If the market had been open a few more minutes trading would have automatically been halted for 15 minutes. That's the second level. The third level is 20%, where trading is stopped for the rest of the day.

 

[quadraginta]

There seems to still be some serious disagreement among the highest experts on whether or not there are truly asymptomatic cases. I think the Chinese said that eventually if they have it, they develop symptoms. What's the latest on this?

I think this may be a disagreement based on technical interpretations of the meaning of "asymptomatic". The use of the modifier "truly" is a clue.

In general there are more applications of the term.

From trusty old Wiki;

Asymptomatic carriers can be categorized by their current disease state.[3] When an individual transmits pathogens immediately following infection but prior to developing symptoms, they are known as an incubatory carrier. Humans are also capable of spreading disease following a period of illness. Typically thinking themselves cured of the disease, these individuals are known as convalescent carriers. Viral diseases such as hepatitis and poliomyelitis are frequently transmitted in this manner. Considered to be the classic asymptomatic carriers, "healthy carriers" never exhibit signs or symptoms of the disease, yet are capable of infecting others.[3]

All three are asymptomatic, all three are carriers.

Perhaps one fits the definition of "truly". Maybe these 'highest experts' don't count the other two.

But the other two remain carriers without symptoms.

Call it what you want if you don't like "asymptomatic".

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

....

Nope, and John covers most of the reasons why that isn't the case right here:

Even if they didn't get tested in hospital, with no precautions being taken, EMT and paramedic staff would have shown up lots of infections by now.

And you are in New Zealand, the case is not the same here in WA State.

Health care workers have turned up infected. Life Care Center had ~50 infected health care workers before the outbreak was recognized. More than 25 police and fire fighters had to be quarantined after the fact when the outbreak was discovered.

And we still don't have enough tests to test the people it is indicated for. No one is testing people post-mortem. Not enough tests for that luxury.

Remember, this is still flu season, people with URIs, even those that died might just have been written off as an unknown pathogen.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's just insane.

But not surprising, because we're doing exactly the same here. If you don't fit the very narrow profile, they will not test.

So then why do you believe close to 100% of the fatalities are being caught?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You might consider re-reading some of SG’s posts, on her experience in WA (Washington state).

A) there’s a delay
B) younger people (EMTs etc) may not have thought they were ill
C) not clear, after the fact, which was the person who had covid-19
Etc.

Less likely today; certainly happened, more than once, in the previous week or two.

But sadly, not by much.

 

[angrysoba]

Stop clutching your pearls. Why would I admit I believed something different than I said I believed?

It's a difference of opinion.

There's no insult here.

It’s not a difference of opinion at all!

You claimed I said the opposite of what I said.

When it was pointed out to you, you just said you had a different POV. Would you accept being completely misrepresented and then told to stop complaining when the misrepresentation was pointed out?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Considering she specifically mentioned deaths of young, healthy people, I'm going to take a wild guess and say they knew they were ill.

No doubt. But health care providers were told by the health department that symptoms without an exposure history were not going to be COVID 19. A couple cases turned up because an astute provider checked any way. And a couple cases turned up in the influenza sentinel surveillance system.

The health department COVID guidelines are something we all follow and used to trust. I may have to rethink that in the future.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

On the other hand, state and local official can step up and take action if the feds won't.
Call it redundency.
Yes, I am not a fan of an all powerful central government. I will take federalism...(the real stuff, not the crap the Federalist Socitry peddels).

They could if the CDC and the FDA weren't tying their hands.

 

[angrysoba]

Well, if the US is not going to test people post-mortem at least there will be no shortage of other countries that can, and hopefully they will be able to give us better data.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There seems to still be some serious disagreement among the highest experts on whether or not there are truly asymptomatic cases. I think the Chinese said that eventually if they have it, they develop symptoms. What's the latest on this?

That's what happens when people try to draw definitive conclusions from inadequate data.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez tested positive for COVID-19 last Thursday. He still has no or only minimal symptoms today 4 days later. I'm checking in on the news on him daily. He was infected Monday after Trump's Sat and maybe Sun exposure to the same Brazilians. Trump still has a full week before he's out of the woods and that's if he's not exposed further by people infected at Mar-a-lago. Just checking for fever is clearly not enough.

And this CNN article was posted upthread: "Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized".

 

[Dr.Sid]

And this CNN article was posted upthread: "Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized".

The article does not seem to focus on distinction between 'before they show symptoms' and 'without ever showing symptoms'.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It’s not a difference of opinion at all!

You claimed I said the opposite of what I said.

When it was pointed out to you, you just said you had a different POV. Would you accept being completely misrepresented and then told to stop complaining when the misrepresentation was pointed out?

And I suggested that if it wasn't what letting the virus run it's course meant, so post what it was. I am not obligated to watch a video you think was wonderful.

Is it that hard to clear up what you meant instead of getting all bent out of shape?

You know, move the discussion forward.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The article does not seem to focus on distinction between 'before they show symptoms' and 'without ever showing symptoms'.

That's not relevant. Asymptomatic people are spreading the virus. You can believe the data out of China is definitive as one researcher has concluded, or you can recognize as I do, that we don't know.
In fact, we won't know until large sero-surveys are done.

 

[The Atheist]

There seems to still be some serious disagreement among the highest experts on whether or not there are truly asymptomatic cases. I think the Chinese said that eventually if they have it, they develop symptoms. What's the latest on this?

There are asymptomatic cases:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...f-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

My thinking is, if kids get mild a mild version of the disease, and asymptomatic cases exist, are there squillions of kids

A parallel: how readily does a young child with covid-19 pass it on to their parents, teachers, grandparents, ...?

Going by colds, 'flu, norovirus and 1000 other diseases the horrible little vectors bring home, I'm going to say: very easily.

Covid-19 also has the advantage of multiple infection routes.

So then why do you believe close to 100% of the fatalities are being caught?

Again, I believe 100% of young, healthy people dying of it are caught.

I'm assuming people in a nursing home are neither.

I'm also assuming you have coroners in USA.

 

[angrysoba]

I think it is worth watching the press briefing conducted by Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance.

Again, the scientists here sound extremely reasonable, they go through their reasoning very clearly, and it is explained why they are being advisory rather than draconian*. They don't make dogmatic statements, they are measured in their treatment of the evidence, they explain what developments they are working on (for example, tests that show whether or not people have already had the virus, and not just whether or not they still have them).





And this is just the first in what is supposed to be a daily briefing, so I think it is worth giving the government credit for transparency and accountability.


*There is one somewhat amusing point that the UK actually has very strong emergency powers that can even ban handshakes that was brought in...in 1984!

 

[angrysoba]

And I suggested that if it wasn't what letting the virus run it's course meant, so post what it was. I am not obligated to watch a video you think was wonderful.

The only people who I wanted to watch it were those who were calling the UK government's scientists crackpots. If you didn't think that, then you didn't need to watch it. There was no obligation.

Is it that hard to clear up what you meant instead of getting all bent out of shape?

You know, move the discussion forward.

How about "Okay, sorry I misunderstood!"

That would have been enough to move the conversation forward.

Too difficult for you?

 

[JeanTate]

Has the number of reported cases OUTSIDE China passed the number INSIDE yet?

What about the number of reported deaths?

If not already, when do you predict those days will come?

From the WHO's Situation Report 56 ("Data as reported by national authorities by 10 AM CET 16 March 2020"):

"The total number of cases and deaths outside China has overtaken the total number of cases in China. From today, total cases from China will no longer be featured separately (former Table 1)."

Note that, per the WHO, Taiwan, Macau, and Hong Kong data are rolled up in "China".

When will the reported cumulative totals - cases, deaths - for a single place exceed those for China?

Today (yesterday), Italy is leading ((24747, 1809) vs (81077, 3218) for China).