2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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lomiller said:
The main problem is that no one really knows how many people were infected in Italy.


On the Diamond princess more than half those who were infected reported no symptoms. Mortality rate for people with symptoms was 1.9% but among all cases it was 0.91%. This still skews high because the average age on the cruise ship was high.

Adjusting for age suggests an expected mortality rate in China of ~0.5%. Italy is older and should be higher, but AFAIK still lower than the 0.91 reported on the Diamond Princess?

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate
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OTOH, while people who go cruising are older, they are also generally healthier than their age cohort who don’t go cruising. And richer too.

Does this suggest that in the US, when Covid-19 really gets going, age-specific death rates will be higher than among cruisers?
 
Ivor the Engineer said:
So you think you know more about how to handle the problem than the experts advising the government in the UK?

The video you refused to watch was of one of the experts working on the problem. He did not suggest in any way there had been political interference in the recommendations.

Why would a politician in the UK do such a thing? It would be leaked to the press in a matter of hours. I realise you live in a country with an incredibly inept and corrupt regime at the moment, but there is approximately zero evidence to suggest political pressure has substantially altered the experts advice in the UK.

And finally, please consider the effect your actions might have when you start seeding doubt into the minds of people about the advice they are receiving from people who know more about this than you do.
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Don't confuse my opinion about political interference with my opinion about experts in the field.

If you think none of those experts is including political influence in their actions, there's a bridge for sale in NY I'd like to sell you.

Just look at Fauci here, he keeps adjusting what he's recommending to fit with Trump's narratives. I'm not going to get into the weeds debating you on this.
 
Matthew Best said:
Wow, that's almost breathtaking in its dishonesty.

What angrysoba actually said was this:

I think people should at least listen to what a particular scientist is saying before they start characterizing them as "a crackpot" who wants to "let the virus take its course".

He didn't describe it as "let the virus take its course". He said almost the opposite - implying that to describe that way would be incorrect and would only be done by someone who hadn't actually listened to what the scientist in question had said.
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That's not how I interpreted it.

You guys' superlative-framed outrage over my POV is not helping move the discussion forward.
 
crescent said:
Late last week of my coworkers flew cross country and back for her grandfather's funeral. Today both she and her wife have coughs and fevers. She called he GP, but they could not recommend her for a test because she didn't have any known contact with anyone with nCov, and neither coworker nor coworker's wife are in any high risk categories. They just have to stay holed up in their home to avoid infecting anyone with the virus they can't get tested for.

Another coworker is also sick with a fever, and does not seem to be able to get a test either.

:boxedin:
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Same thing is still happening here. Are you in WA?
 
dudalb said:
IN the UK, Boris had his big news confeence and did nothng.
The UK is totally scewed worse then the US is.
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Erm.....

1) This was the first in a series of promised daily news conferences. It wasn't called specifically in and of itself.

2) Johnson did not "do nothing". He announced that official Government advice - with immediate effect - is for everyone to avoid social gatherings of any sort, including bars, pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. In effect, the Government is now telling UK inhabitants not to do any of these things.

3) The reason why the language presently being used is "you should not congregate" etc, rather than "you must not congregate" etc, is that at present the Government has no legal powers to enforce either the non-gathering of people or the closure of places such as restaurants, pubs, theatres and so on. And there are two factors driving this approach: firstly, the Govt hopes that all sensible people will abide by the requests, and that all sensible operators of relevant businesses (e.g. pubs, restaurants, theatres) will act on their own accord to close down their premises to all but take-away options. But secondly, if (or when) some people or businesses decide to ignore the requests, the Govt will at that point introduce enforcement legislation. By taking this two-step approach, the Govt avoids coming over as unnecessarily totalitarian; and the wider population will be much more amenable to the Govt using legislation and enforcement powers to deal with the small minority who refuse to respond to the current requests.

I've had a ton of emails this evening already from venues announcing they're now closing for the forseeable future in response to this evening's Government announcement. This is precisely what the Govt hopes - expects - all responsible businesses of this sort to do unilaterally, despite the deep commercial harm it will do to them. But people in the UK should be in no doubt: the Government is requesting that you stop all forms of social congregation - and if you're stupid enough and irresponsible enough to ignore the request, there'll be legislation and police enforcement to force you to comply before long.
 
To all of you so diligently working the figures on the COVID death rate, has it dawned on anyone that some deaths of younger persons with no risk factors in the US almost certainly occurred without COVID testing?
 
Fast Eddie B said:
I think the main purpose of the tests do is to identify who needs to be quarantined. And perhaps to preclude other causes of symptoms.
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I suggest if a person has a fever it is a good idea to stay home. The cause of the fever is not important. If work want a medical cert they can send one of their own workers to the sick person and find out the person's temperature.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
To all of you so diligently working the figures on the COVID death rate, has it dawned on anyone that some deaths of younger persons with no risk factors in the US almost certainly occurred without COVID testing?
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But those people will still have been presenting with Covid-19-like symptoms (respiration problems, high fever, etc), so I'd find it hard to believe that if they went through hospital admission with those symptoms, the hospital wouldn't have tested them. And if they stayed and died at home, there'd have to be an autopsy, which would almost certainly detect the lung scarring/fibrosis along with post-mortem blood tests. I suppose that these sorts of Covid-19 deaths might lag by a couple of days in their detection and reporting, but I find it hard to believe that they would (as a rule) be missed altogether.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
That's not how I interpreted it.

You guys' superlative-framed outrage over my POV is not helping move the discussion forward.
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It’s not your POV that’s the problem: it’s your doubling down when a simple admission of misreading could have moved the discussion on. It’s an almost Trumpian refusal to accept you made a mistake and a knee-jerk blaming of others for pointing out the mistake that’s amazing.
 
portlandatheist said:
nonsense. Countries with extensive testing are bringing down R0 substantially.
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Also ... putting a LOT of effort into doing scrupulous contact tracing. Like Singapore has done.

If you’ve not visited it, check out the official Singapore covid-19 website:
https://www.gov.sg/features/covid-19

Of course, every government has its unique circumstances. But the basics of what to do (and not to do) re public health communication in an epidemic/pandemic are quite well known and understood.

So why have so very few governments failed in this regard?

Yeah, in the US, inability to do testing meant that contact tracing is now essentially impossible. But clear, transparent, timely, complete, and above all honest communication is surely not beyond the technical capability of the world’s biggest economy?
 
LondonJohn said:
Erm.....

1) This was the first in a series of promised daily news conferences. It wasn't called specifically in and of itself.

2) Johnson did not "do nothing". He announced that official Government advice - with immediate effect - is for everyone to avoid social gatherings of any sort, including bars, pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. In effect, the Government is now telling UK inhabitants not to do any of these things.

3) The reason why the language presently being used is "you should not congregate" etc, rather than "you must not congregate" etc, is that at present the Government has no legal powers to enforce either the non-gathering of people or the closure of places such as restaurants, pubs, theatres and so on. And there are two factors driving this approach: firstly, the Govt hopes that all sensible people will abide by the requests, and that all sensible operators of relevant businesses (e.g. pubs, restaurants, theatres) will act on their own accord to close down their premises to all but take-away options. But secondly, if (or when) some people or businesses decide to ignore the requests, the Govt will at that point introduce enforcement legislation. By taking this two-step approach, the Govt avoids coming over as unnecessarily totalitarian; and the wider population will be much more amenable to the Govt using legislation and enforcement powers to deal with the small minority who refuse to respond to the current requests.

I've had a ton of emails this evening already from venues announcing they're now closing for the forseeable future in response to this evening's Government announcement. This is precisely what the Govt hopes - expects - all responsible businesses of this sort to do unilaterally, despite the deep commercial harm it will do to them. But people in the UK should be in no doubt: the Government is requesting that you stop all forms of social congregation - and if you're stupid enough and irresponsible enough to ignore the request, there'll be legislation and police enforcement to force you to comply before long.
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You can’t win with dudalb. One minute he will be condemning the authoritarian behaviour of China and criticizing anyone who supports it. The next he will be condemning the lack of authoritarianism in other countries and criticizing anyone who supports that. The important thing is he knows better and everyone else including experts in infectious diseases are wrong.
 
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