2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Headlines are more about how many cases you know about, not how many cases there really is.

Given india's characteristics, if it were anything like italy (and started about a month earlier than italy did) we should be seeing bodies spilling out of there, headlines or not
 
Given india's characteristics, if it were anything like italy (and started about a month earlier than italy did) we should be seeing bodies spilling out of there, headlines or not
Some countries don't seem to place much importance on reporting inconvenient truths.
 
OK. So let's talk about this virus 'adapting' to the genetic populations in which it lands.

So far, it seem genome sequencing shows very small changes, BUT there ARE changes as it moves to different population centers. Could this mean certain populations, other than just the elderly, are more at risk if they are in a wrong place/wrong time situation?

Are we looking at a higher mortality rate in the specific genome of the virus that hit Italy (which went directly to Spain and Brazil through 'ski travelers' it seems), but lower rates elsewhere because of these small changes from what started in Wuhan?

(this would be apart from population densities and public transport numbers...if they can somehow extract that out and just concentrate on deaths per genetic population)
 
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No (or very few) tourism or business people are going to come here and twiddle their thumbs for two weeks before they can do anything. So unless they intend to try cheating I guess they won’t bother coming. Let’s hope not anyway.

Yes the vast majority of people follow laws here anyway as a cultural norm, maybe the incorruptible country syndrome. As judged by outsiders but certainly not by me living here.
 
News keeps getting worse by the minute. Most of Europe is going into Lockdwon. France is even closing all restaurants.That means the you know what has really hit the fans.
 
News keeps getting worse by the minute. Most of Europe is going into Lockdwon. France is even closing all restaurants.That means the you know what has really hit the fans.

It’s not bad news. It is good news. This is how to stop the spread at this point. Not doing it would be bad.
 
It’s not bad news. It is good news. This is how to stop the spread at this point. Not doing it would be bad.

Still scary.
And from an economic view, this is going to crash the markets on Monday. A lockdown might be necessary, but the economic damage will be severe. Recession a deadl certainty now.
 
Anecdote:
Friends in Vienna told me that Austria is going into lockdown on Monday: no public gatherings, no schools, no shops or Restaurant besides essentials ...
BUT part of the essentials besides pharmacies and groceries is .... Pet Food!
And since plenty of shops, including big gardening, pet and hardware stores sell pet food, they can probably stay open.
 
Still scary.
And from an economic view, this is going to crash the markets on Monday. A lockdown might be necessary, but the economic damage will be severe. Recession a deadl certainty now.

Reality can be scary, denial of reality can be scarier.

Better to have a relatively controlled recession than a wild-fire recession.
 
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I just got an email from my mother saying that she saw on the news that a bunch of college students returned to my area from Italy and were "turned loose" with no testing. I checked the news and what actually happened is that they returned last week and were immediately put into quarantine on campus.
This is why people freak out. People like my mother who don't pay attention to what the news is actually saying.
 
Still many parts of the world where community spreading has yet to take off. Once it does, I guess some places will go through the same n months’ long cycle again, maybe even more than once.

Guesses on when covid-19 will become a new variety of “the flu”?
 
Still many parts of the world where community spreading has yet to take off. Once it does, I guess some places will go through the same n months’ long cycle again, maybe even more than once.
More than likely countries that lack case detection if some cases have occurred.

Guesses on when covid-19 will become a new variety of “the flu”?
I'm going to say never, but we may be defining "a new variety of “the flu” differently."
 
How effective is this 'intense screening'? How would it be done? By whom?

Infected people seeming to be slipping through all sorts of screening. A lock-down facility in Texas with cruise ship passengers cleared a woman who, after being cleared and going to an airport hotel and local mall, ended up testing positive and going back to quarantine.

And that was the CDC handling the testing directly.

This.

I think a problem of all these 'repatriations' and 'rescues' has been the import of the virus into the country that accepts them. No lockdown is perfect. Many 'oops, we let it out and didnt know' have occurred.

Should just ban them all and send supplies in situ where the outbreak occurs to alleviate distress. Dont bring them back!!

Of course, this is for 'next time'. Too late for this one.
 
It's apparently going to be policed by Ministry officials who will be conducting checks.
Just found this on RNZ . . .

"All travellers into New Zealand are being registered, and Healthline will step up how it monitors the self-isolation process"
 
Link from ProMED today:

Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1
Here,
34 we investigate the stability of viable HCoV-19 on surfaces and in aerosols in comparison with SARS35
CoV-1. Overall, stability is very similar between HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1. We found that viable virus
36 could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on
37 cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. HCoV-19 and SARS-CoV-1 exhibited similar
38 half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability
39 on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for
40 HCoV-19 is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene. Our results indicate that
41 aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for
42 multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.

So let's see, if you see Trump avoiding Mar-a-lago for a couple weeks you kow he's actually listening to the science.

I wonder if the fact someone else wrote his Tweets today means anything.

Do we have a fingers crossed emoji?

I don't necessarily wish he would die ( ;) ) but I would like to see him get a taste of the medicine he's been callously doling out to the country.
 
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The fact that like clockwork, respiratory infections surge in the community when kids go back to school after summer break begs to differ.

Bingo!

It's always easy to track through 'flu trackers, too.

Then you can add in Japan closing schools and not having anything like a European explosion.

Kids are driving this and I keep failing to see how people are missing that very important fact.

What can I use to clean microphone grilles? Theres a foam part and a metal part. This is my main point of terror right now. Everything else they tend not to touch

Can you disconnect the mic? Sticking it in an oven at 80 deg C for 10 minutes should kill viruses and hopefully not ruin the electronics.

I'm guessing that this is an idiosyncratic definition of "the Pacific", used colloquially in NZ and immediate surroundings?

Yep. We have an extraordinarily large Pasifika population - more than the islands themselves, apart from Fiji - and it's standard usage.

Given india's characteristics, if it were anything like italy (and started about a month earlier than italy did) we should be seeing bodies spilling out of there, headlines or not

Well, I've been banging the India drum for 6 weeks now.

It will come out sooner or later, and there won't be a lockdown there, because it would kill a lot more than the virus.

I'm very pleased travellers from India, of which we have truckloads, will be required to quarantine themselves.

Are we looking at a higher mortality rate in the specific genome of the virus that hit Italy (which went directly to Spain and Brazil through 'ski travelers' it seems), but lower rates elsewhere because of these small changes from what started in Wuhan?

(this would be apart from population densities and public transport numbers...if they can somehow extract that out and just concentrate on deaths per genetic population)

I think you'll find Italy is well behind on tests and the true number of infections understated by a factor of at least five. I'd expect them to have a slightly higher death rate due to the age of their population, but they have good hospitals and shouldn't be anywhere near the 5% they're showing right now.

Still many parts of the world where community spreading has yet to take off. Once it does, I guess some places will go through the same n months’ long cycle again, maybe even more than once.

And another bingo.

I was trying to make this point earlier in the economics thread - when countries get infection rates under control (if they manage it at all) it's going to burst right out as soon as people go back to work and kids go back to school.

It looks to me like we could be under lockdowns for a year and even then it wouldn't work, so I don't see any easy answers without vaccine or drugs, and they're both zero at the moment.
 
Then there is this:

Palm Beach Post: Coronavirus in Florida: More visitors to Mar-a-Lago test positive
While President Donald Trump calls Mar-a-Lago the Winter White House, his club on Palm Beach is earning a reputation as a coronavirus hotspot after four recent visitors have tested positive.

After attending a lavish birthday party for the girlfriend of Trump’s oldest son last Saturday, three top Brazilian officials tested positive for COVID-19, according to statements they have released.

Republican Party officials said an unidentified donor tested positive after joining roughly 1,000 others at a Sunday luncheon at Mar-a-Lago that was hosted by Trump Victory, according to a Washington Post story late Friday night. The committee raises money for the president’s re-election and other GOP candidates.

In addition to the cases linked to Mar-a-Lago visits, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez on Friday announced he had tested positive after meeting with one of the Brazilian officials.

The proverbial **** is about to hit the fan.
 
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