2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Atheist said:
Given that all of SARS, MERS and Covid-19 mutated recently to enable human - human transmission, it's not that big a leap to say it could mutate again.
Click to expand...

That's a single mutation or two that makes a virus better bind to human cells.

It's not the same as the continual genetic drift of influenza.

I'm not saying drug resistance won't develop, but the two viruses don't have the same mutation rate.

Journal of Virology: Viral Mutation Rates discusses the differences in viruses in general.

BMC Evolutionary Biology - Moderate mutation rate in the SARS coronavirus genome and its implications
The estimated mutation rates in the SARS-CoV using multiple strategies were not unusual among coronaviruses and moderate compared to those in other RNA viruses. ...

... Therefore the mutation rate was placed in the range of 0.80 – 2.38 × 10-3 nucleotide substitution per site per year based on the 11 sequences used.
Click to expand...

Table of other virus mutation rates.

The higher range is close to influenza but not the lower estimate.

Further evaluation of the current circulating strain with a lot more genome analyses:
Live Science - How fast can the coronavirus mutate? (First part discusses the L and S strains and premature conclusions about one being milder than the other.)
So, what does all of this mean for the development of a possible vaccine?

These viruses "are still so genetically similar that these mutations shouldn't alter a new vaccine," Grubaugh said. It's "unlikely that the developers have to worry about this." Once the vaccine is out, however, the virus could adapt to it and develop resistance, he said, but considering that other RNA viruses — such as those that cause measles, mumps and yellow fever — didn't develop resistance to vaccines, that scenario is unlikely.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
A couple of New Rules for New Zealand . . .

“Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific. These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days' time”.

I hope “required” is something more substantial than “Because we say so”. I also hope everyone will have to specify a single address at which they will self-isolate so it can be policed at least to some degree. You can't self-isolate driving around in a campervan or checking into and out of hotels and motels. Properly implemented, this should effectively postpone all tourism and business trips. Don’t understand why “Pacific” is excluded. Wonder if that includes Aussie?

“Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least June 30, 2020 “

Apparently some cruise lines were shutting down anyway. But good move.

Jacinda can forget Global Warming, THIS may be her Nuclear Free moment!
 
Last edited:
alfaniner said:
I would expect that by now they would have intense screening for passengers and crew before embarking. But that is all moot now.
Click to expand...


How effective is this 'intense screening'? How would it be done? By whom?

Infected people seeming to be slipping through all sorts of screening. A lock-down facility in Texas with cruise ship passengers cleared a woman who, after being cleared and going to an airport hotel and local mall, ended up testing positive and going back to quarantine.

And that was the CDC handling the testing directly.
 
ynot said:
A couple of New Rules for New Zealand . . .

“Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific. These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days' time”.

I hope “required” is something more substantial than “Because we say so”. I also hope everyone will have to specify a single address at which they will self-isolate so it can be policed at least to some degree. Properly implemented, this should effectively postpone all tourism and business trips. Don’t understand why “Pacific” is excluded. Wonder if that includes Aussie?

“Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least June 30, 2020 “

Apparently some cruise lines were shutting down anyway. But good move.

Jacinda can forget Global Warming, THIS may be her Nuclear Free moment!
Click to expand...


What does "excluding the Pacific" mean? And why is it excluded?
 
The Atheist said:
Update - I still can't find the article that suggested 15 March as an interim date, but I did see this, which is not at all promising for Remdesivir - brand new release of non-peer-reviewed and very small sample tests: https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/03/13/gilead-coronavirus-covid19-clinical-trials/

The side effects don't look too promising either:

I think I'll go for chloroquine at the moment, should the need arise.
Click to expand...
I'm allergic to the related drug, hydroxychloroquine.
 
"What does "excluding the Pacific" mean? And why is it excluded?"

yeah!

If things go bad here and the missile button governor decides to seek shelter in new zealand, I fully expect you guys to cast him adrift
 
Ivor the Engineer said:
Given the efficacy of Tamiflu during previous outbreaks of flu I don't think it's responsible for the leaders of a country to base their strategy on the promise or hope that Big Pharma is going to save us.

If we get lucky and one of the drugs does work well, how quickly can it be manufactured in the quantities needed and deployed? Perhaps the worse side effect from an effective drug would be the gloating from Trump about how he personally saved the world.[/url]
Click to expand...
Tamiflu was not completely useless. And the idea is a bridge to vaccine development.


Ivor the Engineer said:
Strategies based on nations more or less bringing up the drawbridge are ridiculous. We live in a globalised economy and no developed or developing nation can isolate itself from the rest of the world.
Click to expand...
Incompetrup's drawbridge plans are an incompetent attempt because in his fantasy world he makes magical decisions that make him the greatest.


Ivor the Engineer said:
There will always be cracks and coronavirus is only 150nm* across.
*A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles >300nm. ;)
Click to expand...
The aerosolized virus is mostly contained in 'droplets' which are filtered by the mask.
 
ynot said:
I hope “required” is something more substantial than “Because we say so”. I also hope everyone will have to specify a single address at which they will self-isolate so it can be policed at least to some degree.
Click to expand...

It's apparently going to be policed by Ministry officials who will be conducting checks.

I'm sure there will be some who don't obey, but the majority probably will, and that's all we can hope for, short of sending them all to Waiouru to be guarded.

ynot said:
Jacinda can forget Global Warming, THIS may be her Nuclear Free moment!
Click to expand...

Maybe. She is showing some leadership at last.

quadraginta said:
What does "excluding the Pacific" mean? And why is it excluded?
Click to expand...

pipelineaudio said:
"What does "excluding the Pacific" mean? And why is it excluded?"
Click to expand...

"The Pacific" doesn't include Hawaii or Australia.

The reason they're excluded from the ban is a sop to Pasifika votes, of which over 2/3 (200,000+ votes) vote Labour: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/elec...cific-voters-throw-support-behind-labour.html

It's a stupid exclusion because given the complete lack of health systems in the Pacific, the only time they know they have infections is when people start dying from it.

Samoa is a hotbed of religious belief that led to the measles epidemic, which killed 83 kids in of a population of 200,000 people. When you already know from past influenza epidemics that many Pasifika people have no understanding of either English or disease it seems like a guaranteed back door for the virus to enter through.

We will learn the stupidity of the exclusion when some Pasifika family turns up at Middlemore Hospital unannounced and infects half the staff.
 
angrysoba said:
I think this is an interesting explanation of the herd immunity thing.

He also has some reservations about school closures just because of what other things people may do when their kids aren't at school.

Click to expand...

The fact that like clockwork, respiratory infections surge in the community when kids go back to school after summer break begs to differ.

Kids played together in the summer, a few get sick. But it isn't until the few sick kids in summer spread it to all the kids in class in Sept that the community wave of URIs begins.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
IMO, I think your stereotype is a fail. Older people tend to think voting is important enough to risk it, and as for the booth, you just use hand sanitizer or wear washable gloves.
Click to expand...

opinion noted we'll see what happens this fall and who knows what level of public paranoia there will be this November
 
What can I use to clean microphone grilles? Theres a foam part and a metal part. This is my main point of terror right now. Everything else they tend not to touch
 
portlandatheist said:
opinion noted we'll see what happens this fall and who knows what level of public paranoia there will be this November
Click to expand...
IMO again, the swiftness with which this virus is spreading should make it naturally subside by Nov.

And I believe there will be anti-viral treatment sooner rather than later. The intense research into antiviral drugs with the HIV pandemic and the lab advances which make designer drugs possible means the research has a decent base to start from.

Same with a vaccine.

Human trials with drugs will be easier because you can justify trying new drugs on dying people. The problem will be not getting misled if the drug fails end stage treatment, but might work if given right away.

Proving vaccine efficacy is a longer process.
 
The Atheist said:
It's apparently going to be policed by Ministry officials who will be conducting checks.

I'm sure there will be some who don't obey, but the majority probably will, and that's all we can hope for, short of sending them all to Waiouru to be guarded.
Click to expand...
No (or very few) tourism or business people are going to come here and twiddle their thumbs for two weeks before they can do anything. So unless they intend to try cheating I guess they won’t bother coming. Let’s hope not anyway.
 
Last edited:
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom