2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[Craig4]

I stopped in a beer and wine store (it's a Maryland thing) on the way home. A woman was doing a wine tasting and had an open tray of cheese and crackers out along with plastic cups sitting on the table. I declined to try her wine. As I was checking out, she coughed and laughed and said it wasn't Coronavirus. I asked if she was sure. She said hadn't been out of Charles County (just south of DC). I told her I was 100 percent certain that there has been community contagion in Charles County. She asked how I knew. I told her, "because you're still allowed to have that cheese and cracker tray out".

 

[portlandatheist]

Why? There's no one in the booth with you.

There's all the people that were there before you. There are lines to wait in and crowds. Rational or not, if they don't have mail-in voting like everybody should have like we have here in Oregon and I think you have in Washington, I suspect many people will simply stay home skewed to older voters (more at risk of the virus)

 

[angrysoba]

Just read about the reasoning behind the UK government's total lack of action on the Virus.
And it is one of the craziest things I have ever seen.
Boris is trying to out Trump Trump on this.

That was my thought upthread. I find it pretty mindboggling. And while it is tempting to think Boris must be the brainchild behind this, it seems that the chief scientific advisor has been calling for it and saying that there was no need to close schools, big events, even nursing homes in order to increase herd immunity.

But Scotland, the English football league, some universities, private nursing homes and event organizers have decided to shut themselves down anyway, so the government has changed course and followed their lead.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-in-coronavirus-u-turn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[The Atheist]

Coronavirus there are a couple of human pathogen strains, MERs, SARS, and COVID 19. Compare that to how many strains and how common the flu virus mutates.

Given that all of SARS, MERS and Covid-19 mutated recently to enable human - human transmission, it's not that big a leap to say it could mutate again.

 

[The Atheist]

Also what did you mean about knowing something Mon or Tues?

Update - I still can't find the article that suggested 15 March as an interim date, but I did see this, which is not at all promising for Remdesivir - brand new release of non-peer-reviewed and very small sample tests: https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/03/13/gilead-coronavirus-covid19-clinical-trials/

The side effects don't look too promising either:

The analysts also noted that remdesivir patients experienced nausea, vomiting, rectal bleeding, and elevated liver enzymes.

I think I'll go for chloroquine at the moment, should the need arise.

 

[Darat]

Like spraying disinfectant in public transportation? Having people in clean suits parade around in public as if they are accomplishing something? Wasting time and effort on diagnosing everyone who coughs or has a sore throat? Making the movement of people that have been infected publicly available in handy phone apps, which the state apparently has compiled from their bank account records and other sources?

No.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Given the efficacy of Tamiflu during previous outbreaks of flu I don't think it's responsible for the leaders of a country to base their strategy on the promise or hope that Big Pharma is going to save us.

If we get lucky and one of the drugs does work well, how quickly can it be manufactured in the quantities needed and deployed? Perhaps the worse side effect from an effective drug would be the gloating from Trump about how he personally saved the world.

Strategies based on nations more or less bringing up the drawbridge are ridiculous. We live in a globalised economy and no developed or developing nation can isolate itself from the rest of the world. There will always be cracks and coronavirus is only 150nm* across.





*A correctly fitted N95 mask filters 95% of particles >300nm.

 

[angrysoba]

The worsening numbers in Brazil have a very ominous message from what I can see and that is the final nail in the coffin of the theory that this might just be seasonal. It probably wouldn’t be getting much of a foothold in South America if it was.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

That is the apparent plan, but it's nonsense.

A best case scenario for UK would be 40% of people getting it and only 1% of them needing intensive care.

That's 264,000 ICU beds, for an average of two weeks.

I do not believe the NHS - or any other country's health systems - can deal with that kind of case load, and that's a very optimistic scenario against the official line.

(The fact that if 40% of people are getting it and that's going to include health workers, who aren't immune either, so lots of them will be off work sick isn't worth mentioning.)

I had a wry smile when I saw the dotted horizontal line on the number of cases vs time labelled "NHS Surge Capacity" at the top of the flattened and spread out peak during the last press conference of the COBRA committee.

 

[calebprime]

Italian doctor heard on NPR said that he was "beginning to see cases" of young people in serious conditions with no prior health issues, in one case an 18-year old male.

Probably only a small percentage of young people are going to be seriously ill.

 

[dann]

We live in a globalised economy and no developed or developing nation can isolate itself from the rest of the world. There will always be cracks and coronavirus is only 150nm* across.

It's doubtful that "cracks" transfer the virus to people. People do. In Denmark, the first people to fall ill could all be traced back to Italy, and the majority of those were people who went skiing for the winter holidays. (827 cases in DK by now, Saturday.)
By the way, goods can still go in and out of Denmark after the lockdown. I think it's the same in other countries We are talking about travel restrictions, not about the transportation of goods. The virus doesn't survive for very long on things. It survives (and reproduces) in people. And it is possible to prevent people from going skiing in the Alps. It has already been done, but it should have been done one five weeks ago.

 

[dann]

... in one case an 18-year old male.

We (males, not 18-year-olds! ) appear to be much more susceptible to this virus than females.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

It's doubtful that "cracks" transfer the virus to people. People do. In Denmark, the first people to fall ill could all be traced back to Italy, and the majority of those were people who went skiing for the winter holidays. (827 cases in DK by now, Saturday.)
By the way, goods can still go in and out of Denmark after the lockdown. I think it's the same in other countries We are talking about travel restrictions, not about the transportation of goods. The virus doesn't survive for very long on things. It survives (and reproduces) in people. And it is possible to prevent people from going skiing in the Alps. It has already been done, but it should have been done one five weeks ago.

By "cracks" I was referring to such things as the interactions between people at boarders and the points of entry and exit for goods, rather than actual, physical cracks.

It's a bit of a moot point really, as the virus is everywhere now and we're all going to need to get some kind of immunity from this thing.

 

[angrysoba]

I think this is an interesting explanation of the herd immunity thing.

He also has some reservations about school closures just because of what other things people may do when their kids aren't at school.

 

[angrysoba]

Spain about to go into lockdown, according to the Guardian feed:

The Spanish government have drafted a decree to put the country into lockdown, according to reports in the Spanish media.

The reports say that Spaniards will be told to stay home except to buy food or medical supplies, go to hospital, work or in the case of other emergencies.

I’ll update you when we get official confirmation on this.

Spanish friends of mine have been posting pictures of how people have been released from work and school in Madrid and then gone out to camping grounds, other attractions and also to their family homes to see their elderly relatives. It's a recipe for total disaster.

After that, I fear that France will be next on the list.

 

[alfaniner]

Actually no. It only takes one person to come aboard with the virus and it would spread to everyone on board.

I would expect that by now they would have intense screening for passengers and crew before embarking. But that is all moot now.

 

[The Atheist]

Given the efficacy of Tamiflu during previous outbreaks of flu I don't think it's responsible for the leaders of a country to base their strategy on the promise or hope that Big Pharma is going to save us.

Bingo!

Heck, I'd love to see banner headlines that Drug X stops the virus in 99.97% of cases.

I just don't think it's that likely.

If we get lucky and one of the drugs does work well, how quickly can it be manufactured in the quantities needed and deployed? Perhaps the worse side effect from an effective drug would be the gloating from Trump about how he personally saved the world.

I'd take that. Four more years of Trump, or 50,000,000 dead?

I don't think manufacturing will be a problem, unless it's a vaccine, which certainly takes time. Drugs would only be needed fast for existing cases.

Strategies based on nations more or less bringing up the drawbridge are ridiculous.

Yes, because you can't keep them up forever.

The worsening numbers in Brazil have a very ominous message from what I can see and that is the final nail in the coffin of the theory that this might just be seasonal. It probably wouldn’t be getting much of a foothold in South America if it was.

Maybe.

Even if it's seasonal, it's still going to spread to some degree - have a look at Spain. If the disease is allowed to run unchecked, it's going to nail you in any weather, but if it's seasonal and you have health & government teams working hard to avoid it, I think it might be possible to contain it.

There definitely seems to be a threshold level of infections, beyond which, it just explodes. Which is fairly predictable, I think.

Italian doctor heard on NPR said that he was "beginning to see cases" of young people in serious conditions with no prior health issues, in one case an 18-year old male.

Probably only a small percentage of young people are going to be seriously ill.

I think with 150,000 official cases and probably over a million unknown/untested cases, we can be pretty sure that's going to be true - as in H1N1, otherwise healthy young people occasionally just go and die of a disease that most young & healthy people don't have trouble with.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There's all the people that were there before you. There are lines to wait in and crowds. Rational or not, if they don't have mail-in voting like everybody should have like we have here in Oregon and I think you have in Washington, I suspect many people will simply stay home skewed to older voters (more at risk of the virus)

IMO, I think your stereotype is a fail. Older people tend to think voting is important enough to risk it, and as for the booth, you just use hand sanitizer or wear washable gloves.

 

[Andy_Ross]

US travel ban extended to UK and Ireland.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Any good sources for the younger patients being hit?