2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[TurkeysGhost]

The MAGA types on my local shooting forum honestly seem to believe the whole thing is a hoax to make Trump look bad.

There's a dark irony to this as they tend to be older and are probably much more vulnerable to the disease, but are being brain poisoned by Fox News into under-reacting.

 

[Belz...]

There's a dark irony to this as they tend to be older and are probably much more vulnerable to the disease, but are being brain poisoned by Fox News into under-reacting.

Good.

 

[angrysoba]

Tom Hanks just Tweeted that he and his wife have tested positive for the virus. This puts a famous international face on the issue. I expect the panic meter to go off the dial.

There is now video footage of him quarantined on Bondi Beach. He doesn't seem to be handling it well, I'm sad to say.

 

[angrysoba]

Things are getting so bad in Spain, that Chinese people are being asked to return to China by their relatives. They apparently don't have a lot of faith in the way Spanish authorities are handling the situation.

Link

 

[lomiller]

There are two crucially important factors to bear in mind when comparing COVID-19 with what's colloquially known as "seasonal flu".

The first is the one which the media usually focus on: the mortality rate. Current evidence (though many of the stats - especially those from China - still have reliability issues) suggests that the total-population mortality rate for COVID-19 is something between 2.5% and 3.5%. By contrast, the typical total-population mortality rate for seasonal flu in developed nations is 0.1%-0.2%.

Evidence from South Korea puts the mortality rate for COVID-19 at ~0.6%. Since most cases are mild and never reported or confirmed how extensive your testing is will have a direct impact on mortality rate. SK has the most comprehensive so their numbers are most likely to be accurate. Since even SK has not tested everyone, even their numbers are probably too high.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Good.

The median age of the Fox News viewer is around 65, and that network is really downplaying the severity of the outbreak. Right wing propaganda gonna get these people killed.

I would cheer more, but lots of otherwise responsible people are going to suffer if this thing runs wild, not just the socially irresponsible.

 

[nelsondogg]

The MAGA types on my local shooting forum honestly seem to believe the whole thing is a hoax to make Trump look bad.

There's a dark irony to this as they tend to be older and are probably much more vulnerable to the disease, but are being brain poisoned by Fox News into under-reacting.

Same with all my right wing Trumpy aquaintances on FB. Constantly posting stupid memes about how its just like a flu, how everyone's stupidly panicking etc. That all slowed some time mid yesterday and not a peep from them today.

 

[angrysoba]

The median age of the Fox News viewer is around 65, and that network is really downplaying the severity of the outbreak. Right wing propaganda gonna get these people killed.

I would cheer more, but lots of otherwise responsible people are going to suffer if this thing runs wild, not just the socially irresponsible.

That is exactly the same median age as the people in Italy dying of COVID 19 according to the Italian doctor co-ordinating the ICUs.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Not on Trump's list of entry-banned European countries: those where he owns a golf club.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/12/trump-coronavirus-travel-europe-resorts-126808

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Bolsanaro being tested after showing symptoms of the virus. Could we really get this lucky?

 

[Marcus]

I know - and I heavily caveated the numbers accordingly. Stats and estimates are changing almost daily. And total-population mortality rates for COVID-19 are centering in on 2.5%-3.5%, which is why I used that range.

But I was primarily intending to show the key differences between COVID-19 and seasonal flu (in order to address arguments suggesting we ought perhaps to be more worried about seasonal flu, and/or that we are overreacting to COVID-19), and even though the COVID-19 stats are unreliable, they are (as you say) most definitely worse than those of seasonal flu. And in particular, the difference in R0 stats (again, allowing for current unreliability of COVID-19 figures) mean that COVID-19 almost certainly spreads exponentially more quickly than seasonal flu.








True - though it's likely that COVID-19 will have at least some element of seasonality, perhaps in mortality terms more than transmission terms.







Nope.

The numbers have been talked about earlier in the thread but I thought you did a good job of summarizing them. The reason I don't think we will see 50 million deaths, as some predicted, or even a few hundred thousand, as we might see in a normal flu season, is the large scale behavior of the virus. Take China, for example. There are objective signs that it is tapering off there. A nation of 1.4 billion people, 3169 (reported) deaths from coronavirus. If it were progressing by the numbers, we should see millions of deaths there, not a few thousand.



Perhaps the seasonal factor is a big one. It will be telling if the warmer places continue to show low numbers as the weather heats up.

 

[Swordfishtrombone]

I'm going to be financially hit rather badly by this epidemic - I drive a taxi here in Helsinki. Now we are looking at closing public events larger than 500 people (currently a government recommendation). Just today, the hockey match that usually gets an audience of 6000+ people will be played to empty audiences, and another big event is canceled.

No big events translates into much fewer customers, translates into a reduced pay check. And that's on top of the slowdown of demand that would result from a recession, something that's looking more and more likely world wide.

I'm using disinfectant on my hands frequently, and wiping down hard surfaces in my taxi after any customer that seems at all sick. I've also got 90+ year old grandparents who are very unlikely to survive if they get hit.

Damn I hope they manage to get the vaccine out in a shorter time frame than expected!

 

[Marcus]

I'm pretty sure I never called it or compared it to the Andromeda Strain.

Not you, but looking at all the breathless media reports, and the ensuing panic, it appears that many people are thinking that way.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What he meant was that NZ could not do the tech and logistical part of delivering things in a "hot zone" like Wuhan had in that amount of time.
If you watched the video of food/medicine delivery there you would see it is quite advanced in terms of controls. Amazing what they could do really, even if the video distribution is 'partially sponsored by the Chinese govt' as youtube admits.

That's a non sequitur to what I posted.

 

[JeanTate]

Earlier in the thread, someone asked about Australia, and what we're doing to prevent the spread.

That was me.

So here's a list:
1. We're testing aggressively.
2. We now have pop-up, and drive through clinics.
3. When cases are identified, we're tracking contacts aggressively.
4. We belatedly put travel restrictions in place (too late in all cases, but better than nothing - we've banned flights from Italy today, for example).

In my workplace, on my floor:
1. Posters everywhere about hand-washing protocols.
2. Alcohol based hand sanitiser at all three entrances to the floor.
3. Ongoing emails about our state of preparation, and calling our attention to the hand-washing and hand sanitisation.

Now the scary bits...
1. Our (workplace) flu vaccinations are at least two weeks away.
2. We're running out of hand-sanitiser really quickly, the three boxes I reported earlier were all filled with the rest of a large stationary order, hand-sanitiser is still on 'back-order'.
3. One of my team didn't report to work today.
4. Another member of my team was sent home today, because he was suddenly struck down with a high fever and shivering.

Thanks!

Entirely consistent with what I’d read. Go Aussies go! Or as they’d say in China, jia you (literally, add oil)!

To the people who keep saying "seasonal"...

... not a chance, it is hot in Australia, rarely humid, and we're seeing personal transmissions within the country everywhere.

While not at all the same as in Australia’s big cities, the weather in Singapore is/has been very different from that in Wuhan, Iran, S Korea, or northern Italy. That different weather didn’t seem to slow local, community transmission (small number statistics of course).

Maybe the Trump administration, led by Pence, has been preying for Covid-19 to be seasonal, rather than doing research, or preparing in case it isn’t much affected by the seasons.

 

[Sherkeu]

That's a non sequitur to what I posted.

Yours was the non-sequitur.
He had said (in response to my posted video of China deliveries in infected zones) that NZ couldn't do it...that it was an advantage of a large country. Your response didn't make sense, so I clarified.

I can go back and clip the needed text but I'm sure you can look yourself.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Not necessarily no. That said, with seasonal flu, the seasons are fairly reliable guides to when flu will die down. With this virus we do not have that kind of reassurance as far as we know.

Exactly. Wishful thinking, IMO.

If you look at the 2009 new variant flu, which is a better example because it was a shift (as opposed to drift) in the genome, few people had immunity. The outbreak in the US started in the summer and that continued into the next summer.

When a population has some immunity, spread via droplets on surfaces plays a more important role in the virus getting to a susceptible host. Heat kills the virus (both coronavirus and flu) and it survives longer on surfaces in cold weather.

But when a virus is spreading rapidly person to person because everyone is a susceptible host, then survival on surfaces only need be brief. Summer is unlikely to slow the virus.

In addition, people forget some viruses are more prevalent in different seasons.

 

[JeanTate]

Crickets from the anti-vax community as well. I'm sure they'll be in line with the rest if there is a vaccine developed.

Sure, that’s almost certain. Especially if they’re male, over 65, and have certain existing medical conditions*.

But vaccinate their kindergarteners? Don’t be silly! Go wash your mouth with soap! Everyone knows the vaccines contain mercury/cause autism/etc, and are entirely unnecessary because a) young kids don’t get that virus, and b) if they do it doesn’t hurt them (it’s even milder than measles and everyone knows how harmless that is).

*TB
failed kidneys
diabetes
pneumonia
cancer (not really sure about this one; lung cancer for sure, but all cancers?)

 

[angrysoba]

Exactly. Wishful thinking, IMO.

If you look at the 2009 new variant flu, which is a better example because it was a shift (as opposed to drift) in the genome, few people had immunity. The outbreak in the US started in the summer and that continued into the next summer.

When a population has some immunity, spread via droplets on surfaces plays a more important role in the virus getting to a susceptible host. Heat kills the virus (both coronavirus and flu) and it survives longer on surfaces in cold weather.

But when a virus is spreading rapidly person to person because everyone is a susceptible host, then survival on surfaces only need be brief. Summer is unlikely to slow the virus.

In addition, people forget some viruses are more prevalent in different seasons.

Good explanation. Thanks!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Pence is in a CBS news interview now giving out more lies and incorrect information about testing in the US.

Outright lies and stupidity.

He actually claimed private labs were doing the testing but weren't required to report the results. What a lying piece of ****. Private labs were prohibited from testing because the CDC withheld permission.