2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[angrysoba]

I don't deny that less restrictive measures would mean more deaths. It's a matter of perspective, though. In the same way that making cars illegal would eliminate highway deaths, locking down the country every winter would cut down on those hundreds of thousands of flu deaths.


Coronavirus is different because it's new and very newsworthy (and facebook worthy). A panic has been inspired that is out of proportion with the danger.

May I ask what you think the death toll in China and subsequently the rest of the world would have been with less restrictive measures? If everyone is overreacting to this then could you give us some sense in what we should be doing?

 

[Marcus]

Thanks.


My hilite.

Do you mean 2020? Or this flu season (which began some time late in 2019)?


OTOH, given all the lockdowns etc in China these last few months, perhaps the number of flu deaths "this year" is much lower that it would otherwise have been?

I'm trying to follow your logic here: if it were Ebola instead of the coronavirus, would you still make the same comparison? If not, why not?

he CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.[/quote]


https://www.npr.org/sections/health...u-s-flu-season-beginning-to-ease-modelers-say


Ebola is an even better example of a health scare. 11k deaths worldwide in it's 2 1/2 year course, 11 in the US, and we saw the furor it created.


If the current virus was ebola instead, no, it would still not inspire me to panic. China is recovering now, they only had 3k deaths , with strict controls but a huge population.

 

[JeanTate]

I don't deny that less restrictive measures would mean more deaths. It's a matter of perspective, though. In the same way that making cars illegal would eliminate highway deaths, locking down the country every winter would cut down on those hundreds of thousands of flu deaths.

In the US, it's been many years since such deaths exceeded 200k, right?

Maybe even not since the 1918 Spanish Flu?

Coronavirus is different because it's new and very newsworthy (and facebook worthy). A panic has been inspired that is out of proportion with the danger.

What, may I ask, do you see "the danger" to be, to day?

How does that perspective of yours, today, compare with what it was a month ago? three months ago?

What's your view on the kind of travel bans etc which the US, Australia (and more) put in place, ~a month ago?

 

[angrysoba]

he CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.


https://www.npr.org/sections/health...u-s-flu-season-beginning-to-ease-modelers-say


Ebola is an even better example of a health scare. 11k deaths worldwide in it's 2 1/2 year course, 11 in the US, and we saw the furor it created.


If the current virus was ebola instead, no, it would still not inspire me to panic. China is recovering now, they only had 3k deaths , with strict controls but a huge population.

Nobody is urging panic. In fact, the opposite!

 

[Darat]

Finding someone to blame is even better than solving the problem.

What do you mean? For Trump the problem is simply who he can blame. What other problem could there be?

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks.

he CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...u-s-flu-season-beginning-to-ease-modelers-say

From that same source: "This year's flu season started picking up steam around Thanksgiving."

Ebola is an even better example of a health scare. 11k deaths worldwide in it's 2 1/2 year course, 11 in the US, and we saw the furor it created.

Indeed.

If the current virus was ebola instead, no, it would still not inspire me to panic.

I'm going from memory, but I think Ebola, then (before vaccines became available), had a death rate of ~70%, and a rate-of-getting-it-if-you-come-in-contact-with-an-infected-person of close to 100%

If my memory is correct, you've gotta be the coolest customer I've ever met (even if only virtually).

(Of course, as angrysoba correctly points out, this is not about "panic").

China is seems to be recovering now, they only had 3k deaths reported, so far, with strict controls but a huge population.

FTFY.

 

[theprestige]

Nobody is urging panic. In fact, the opposite!

Pretty sure The Atheist is urging widespread panic.

 

[Marcus]

May I ask what you think the death toll in China and subsequently the rest of the world would have been with less restrictive measures? If everyone is overreacting to this then could you give us some sense in what we should be doing?

I'm not sure how one would calculate that. Let's err on the side of caution and say that there would be 10 times as many deaths in China, say 30k. Still a small fraction of flu deaths.


What we should be doing: Wash your hands, perhaps avoid shaking hands, above all, if you have the least bit of symptoms, stay home. Test lots of people, sure.Encourage people to work at home.



What we shouldn't be doing: Cancelling public events, destroying livelihoods, devastating the economy. People are selling off stock because they are afraid businesses across the board are going to be in trouble, and they are right. It's not the virus doing that, though, it is the overreaction.

 

[The Atheist]

LOL. Maybe that's where The Atheist's missing 10k American deaths are hiding.

Who said anything about 10,000 deaths?

Are you trying to shift the goalposts to make up for your idiotic post?

My point was that you're jumping the gun by a long, long, way.

The time to compare 'flu and Covid-19 deaths will be once the epidemic has ceased, not right at the start.

But you know that anyway.

 

[angrysoba]

I'm not sure how one would calculate that. Let's err on the side of caution and say that there would be 10 times as many deaths in China, say 30k. Still a small fraction of flu deaths.


What we should be doing: Wash your hands, perhaps avoid shaking hands, above all, if you have the least bit of symptoms, stay home. Test lots of people, sure.Encourage people to work at home.



What we shouldn't be doing: Cancelling public events, destroying livelihoods, devastating the economy. People are selling off stock because they are afraid businesses across the board are going to be in trouble, and they are right. It's not the virus doing that, though, it is the overreaction.

What do you mean “err on the side of caution”? 30,000 deaths in China? I think you may be low-balling that to say the least. In Italy right now, there have been almost a thousand deaths in the space of a week with the health services overwhelmed. The whole country is in lockdown. Are they overreacting?

 

[chrispy]

Ok. Update from South of the US border. Here in Guatemala we started the day with news that all European entries, regardless of nationality or residency standing, would be subject to 7 days quarantine. 3 hourse later, NO PEOPLE COMING FROM EUROPE ARE ALLOWED IN. I for one am very worried about status here as I don't have permanant residency and, altohugh I am American, my work depends on touris,. We have had a 22+% cancellation rate according to INGUAT (the tourism board) already. I am very,very worried about my status here and my income (as small as it is).

 

[angrysoba]

This is an Italian doctor explaining the logistical challenges of Covid 19 and how it has stretched the ICU capacity. He urges that all countries need to avoid large scale infections:

 

[Darat]

Pretty sure The Atheist is urging widespread panic.

Not seen that in any of his posts. Perhaps you are confusing "need to take effective action now" with "widespread panic".

 

[The Atheist]

What we shouldn't be doing: Cancelling public events, destroying livelihoods, devastating the economy. People are selling off stock because they are afraid businesses across the board are going to be in trouble, and they are right. It's not the virus doing that, though, it is the overreaction.

You might like to compare the number of cases v deaths in Italy and South Korea.

Right now, the official numbers show:

Italy: total cases - 12, 462, deaths - 827. Total number tested - 73,154. Daily increase average past 7 days is well over 20%.

South Korea: total cases - 7,775, deaths - 60. Total number tested - 222,395. Daily increase per day for past four days has been no more than 3%.

Tell me which scenario you'd rather be a part of.

And maybe read this first: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...ern-italys-hospitals-on-the-brink-of-collapse

 

[The Atheist]

Pretty sure The Atheist is urging widespread panic.

Pretty ordinary reading skills if you've seen that. Care to quote an example?

What I'm urging is the following:

Prioritise testing. As shown in my previous post, testing saves lives and enables the outbreak to be controlled.

Act immediately on any sign of a cluster, closing all events and isolating the area.

Spend heavily on public education about hygiene, not spreading germs, and making sure they are tested before venturing into public if they exhibit any symptoms. This, of course, is contingent on governments instigating the testing first.

I'm quite amazed people are still taking it all lightly. I can understand not giving a crap when a load of slopes die, but I would have thought all the white corpses in Italy would be a guide that if not managed extremely carefully, Covid-19 is going to kill a hell of a lot of people.

 

[The Atheist]

Ok. Update from South of the US border. Here in Guatemala we started the day with news that all European entries, regardless of nationality or residency standing, would be subject to 7 days quarantine. 3 hourse later, NO PEOPLE COMING FROM EUROPE ARE ALLOWED IN. I for one am very worried about status here as I don't have permanant residency and, altohugh I am American, my work depends on touris,. We have had a 22+% cancellation rate according to INGUAT (the tourism board) already. I am very,very worried about my status here and my income (as small as it is).

Ouch, that's not good.

Tourism is going to be off the agenda for some time, all over the world, I suspect.

I gather most travel insurance policies being written now exclude Covid-19 from provisions, which is going to cut a lot of travel, because even if you're young and don't care about the disease, you might get stuck in limbo for months.

 

[The Atheist]

This is an Italian doctor explaining the logistical challenges of Covid 19 and how it has stretched the ICU capacity. He urges that all countries need to avoid large scale infections:

I've taken to bashing my head against a convenient brick wall the past few days, trying to stop myself trying to figure out how administrations can be so stupid as to not realise that.

 

[JeanTate]

Thanks.

I'm not sure how one would calculate that. Let's err on the side of caution and say that there would be 10 times as many deaths in China, say 30k. Still a small fraction of flu deaths.


What we should be doing: Wash your hands, perhaps avoid shaking hands, above all, if you have the least bit of symptoms, stay home. Test lots of people, sure.Encourage people to work at home.



What we shouldn't be doing: Cancelling public events, destroying livelihoods, devastating the economy. People are selling off stock because they are afraid businesses across the board are going to be in trouble, and they are right. It's not the virus doing that, though, it is the overreaction.

Which of the WHO guidelines, on Covid-19, do you think are appropriate (other than those you have listed as “should be doing”)?

Which not appropriate? Not just what’s in your list.

FWIW, if I am not mistaken, “cancelling public events” is one of the WHO guidelines (with caveats, of course).

 

[Andy_Ross]

Italy is to close all shops except food stores and pharmacies in Europe's toughest lockdown yet as virus deaths and cases continue to mount.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said bars, restaurants, hairdressers and non-essential company departments would also close. Home delivery would be allowed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51845817

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Total deaths in China from coronavirus as of today, 3,158. Total deaths in the world,4,607. Compare that to flu deaths, just in the US, only this year, 33,000.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


ETA: I haven't found the number of flu deaths in China, but it being much larger than the US, I would expect the flu deaths to be more.

Even if those numbers are close to true, do you have any idea what they did to stop slow the virus' spread?